Foreclosures and Financing

[jencoleslaw]

Only 15? That's not a very powerful message.

[Frankie811]

Web site documents Providence

[TheAnk]

http://www.forgottenprovidence.com/

[TheAnk]

There is also literally, no supply of multifamilies in Providence.. Its basically evaporated..

Date PVD Multi RI Multi 3Fam PVD 3Fam State

09/21/2007 774 1928 349 711

10/22/2007 785 1901 355 698

12/27/2007 717 1738 340 662

03/11/2008 702 1702 305 612

06/16/2008 693 1685 297 593

09/02/2008 638 1567 248 518

10/06/2008 577 1463 216 463

12/29/2008 493 1320 194 441

02/09/2009 476 1239 190 423

04/30/2009 368 1044 155 323

So I guess there is a little bit of fact behind my unrequested, unproven and unreliable opinions on housing...

Eyeballing these listings, most of these are still foreclosures, but the tide is changing.. There are an icreasing number of "real" listings, which means the foreclosure wave, at the very least is taking a pause, and at the very best is over...

[The Voice of Reason]

The Ank,

you are dead right about the bull.

I think and this is just a guess, because poop can still happen, but I think we will generally look back at this recession and call the first week of March the bottom. I'll say March 6th, because thats when it turned arround for my 401k

I am up 161% since that day and will likely top 200% by todays close.

The thing with property is that entry level homes have never stopped selling. and forclosed homes came in at entry level prices. It will be interesting to see when mid level homes start selling again. there is a ~6000 SF mansion on 3.5 acres near my house(Manchester, CT) for sale at only 350K right now. It is deals like this that will start pushing the market.

there was an extremely nice condo downtown(hartford) that was listed at 220K. 220K for a 1,450 SF condo in a historic building with a nice view and walk to work downtown(it was in the Linden building on the top floor) It sold quickly

these are the kind of deals that start to move the market because the buys have to sell their existing home and it really starts to make the market move.

furthermore if you look at my credit thaw thread in the main coffee house forum you will see that some of the capitol market indicators are heading the right direction. I work in the money markets and fixed income settlement operations and I can say that things are changing. deals are being done. there is a ton more pain for a lot of people out there, but the leading indicators are all green right now.

so buy whatever you can.

I just wish I was more liquid because when GE was at $7 I had a stiffy

I bought by rental property about a year ago now, and it has not really lost value, but there are some deals out there that also give me a stiffy.

too bad I am not in a position to take advantage of this recession. maybe I will have some assets by the next one.

Cheers!

[monsoon]

Short term views of the stock market (anything less than a year) is basically nothing more than gambling. Any piece of news can cause a dramatic change and unless one is willing to work with unpredictable odds, then I don't recommend it. The market is up since March. I don't think it is any sign at all that the economy is improving. It's a sign that corporations have improved their bottom lines at the moment by firing people during the first quarter. Is it sustainable in the long run? I don't think so. This economy won't recover until they admit what the real problems are and address them.

One thing to consider. Suppose something like a stock was worth $100 in October and was worth $10 in March. It lost 90 dollars which is a 90% drop. Easy enough. Now suppose that stock rises 90% from March to now. That is only a rise of $9. Much much less than the original fall $9 vs $90 even though both sound the same. This is how the media reports it.

[TheAnk]

The dow dropped 53% from its highs... If it goes back up there it will be a gain of 106%.. Thats how percentages work, we all learned this in 3rd grade math.. Thats not what is being discussed.. We are not talking about mathematic semantics, we are talking cyclical markets..

Here's something for you to consider.. The dow started in 1896 @ 40.94..

Today it is trading at 8,200.. (after shedding roughly 40% from 14,000)

The Dow has been around for 113 years; at any moment in time you can point to a past moment in time and show both gains and losses..

Markets are cyclical, and they just shed 50%.. We just experienced a gigantic loss.. And most people are, rightly so, fearful..

I'm just saying what I see.. We had a viscious bear market correction, 2nd only to the GD.. And the Depression didn't have the "benefit" of a fiat dollar to stop it, or securities laws, for that matter...

Or a drunken sailor president who spent more than all prior presidents COMBINED (from George Washington to George Bush) in thirty days.. (And last night, comically stated that he wants a lean portfolio and small government LOL)

Conditions are stabilizing, leading indicators are improving.. Most people inveitably miss the bull from fear and ride out the bear too long out of stubborness.. Its human nature

Legalese Disclaimer: All investing is gambling... Its like craps in a casino.. Either you are willing to assume the risks of investing, or you are not.. There is no such thing as a safe investment.. If you are not willing to lose, don't invest in anything.. There's nothing wrong with that.. Except for the fact that you can't beat inflation and your dollar is worth less every day, but whatever..

[TheAnk]

http://www.projo.com/business/content/BZ_R...21.30ac6d1.html

Timely article..

[The Voice of Reason]

Short term views of the stock market (anything less than a year) is basically nothing more than gambling. Any piece of news can cause a dramatic change and unless one is willing to work with unpredictable odds, then I don't recommend it. The market is up since March. I don't think it is any sign at all that the economy is improving. It's a sign that corporations have improved their bottom lines at the moment by firing people during the first quarter. Is it sustainable in the long run? I don't think so. This economy won't recover until they admit what the real problems are and address them.

One thing to consider. Suppose something like a stock was worth $100 in October and was worth $10 in March. It lost 90 dollars which is a 90% drop. Easy enough. Now suppose that stock rises 90% from March to now. That is only a rise of $9. Much much less than the original fall $9 vs $90 even though both sound the same. This is how the media reports it.