Charlotte Mecklenburg Election Predictions

[monsoon]

Since this is a slow day, I've decided to create a topic just to predict what you will think is going to happen in the upcoming election. Though I have created a poll, please feel free to add anymore in the topic that you think are relevant.

Here are my predictions.

McCroy - Will be re-elected. Charlotte is happy with the current status quo

School Bonds - Will be passed. There is no organized opposition to it even though nobody is happy with CMS and the school system continues to have very poor results.

Transit Tax Repeal - Will fail. The marketing blitz which includes televised ads, endless postal mailings, and endorsements from local Charlotte notables such as the owner of the Panthers is the best that money can buy. This is most important in American politics.

[Andyc545]

I agree down the line, Metro.

I also think that turnout will be higher than in pasts. Maybe it's just me and the topics with the light rail are so heavily expressed here on UP, but it seems like these topics are heavily discussed around Charlotte and heavily opinionized.

[Bled_man]

I agree with all of your predictions Metro. I think that the turnout will be pretty good considering that there are mostly only local issues to be voted on.

[elvigy]

I agree on everything except turnout. I think it will be average to below. There is a lot of water cooler type talk about some of these issues, but, as metro points out, very little organized opposition (or support) at a grassroots level which often drives turnout.

The exception to the lack of interest is the transit tax. I voted that the effort to repeal it will fail, but this issue does seem to have generated the most opposition (or support, depending on your point of view). IMHO, the issue seems to have peaked with the petition signature drive to get it on the ballot. Now, with Charlotte's big hitters stepping in to support the tax, I think most people are just going to let this one slide (i.e. vote to not repeal the tax).

[Justadude]

I think the transit tax vote could produce a surprise "yes" result. Though the general momentum seems to be in the direction of keeping the tax, I can imagine the disinterested and uninformed generally opposing taxes; combined with the informed, organized effort to repeal the tax, it might cause the "yes" vote to bump over 50%. I certainly don't think it's going to be a landslide in either direction and I'd honestly be surprised if it were decided by more than a 5% margin. For that reason, I'm uneasy about the confusing nature of the yes/no dynamic on this issue.

I think McCrory and CMS will be landslide winners for the reasons described by metro above.

[elvigy]

...For that reason, I'm uneasy about the confusing nature of the yes/no dynamic on this issue...

[Raintree21]

I've got a feeling that we might be surpised with a repeal of the transit tax. I hear a lot of anti-rhretoric on UP, but outside of that, I've not heard much support for the tax or any tax in general for that matter. Seems like kinda the same feelings that people have had for CMS in the past with their mismanagement. Why should we give CATS more money when they've screwed this up so far seems to be the thinking that I've heard from some. When it comes to advertising, I've only seen 2 commercials for anti-repeal, 2 or 3 billboards, and a handful of yard signs. On the other hand, I've seen at least a hundred pro-repeal yard signs but no commercials or billboards. So who has the advantage?

[monsoon]

^It could happen. There was a very similar media blitz from all of the big wigs on the arena and it got voted down. I don't think it will however though because of the very excellent obfuscation of the real issues.

[voyager12]

I agree with all the predictions in the original post. I don't think we will see any upsets. I did not vote for any Republicans. But I would not mind if Edwin Peacock won an At Large City Council seat. More moderate Republicans officials on the local level would be a good thing. One more thing.. I already voted early against repeal but I am sick of endless spam from the pro-train crowd I have been getting on a daily basis. Oy vey enough already

[Charlotte_native]

The tax repeal issue will likely be decided by the side who has convinced the most people with misinformation. Those that I talk to who really only watch the news or have only seen parts of the arguments really don't understand the issue at hand at all (on both sides). This is actually somewhat confusing for the average person who doesn't keep up with city and agency dynamics and those that don't really understand much about public projects and funding. Overall I believe the repeal will be based on who sound-bite convinced the most people.

With that, if the public ISN'T well enough informed, I think the repeal will fail because many people who always want to vote down any taxes, bonds, or other city expenditures might vote NO because that is what they are used to voting (if they haven't paid enough attention). Otherwise I think people who actually have an opinion and are planning a vote one way or another will know which button to hit.

[Justadude]

^ Frankly I wonder whether the definition of the word "repeal" is all that widely known. I like to give the general public the benefit of the doubt, but the fact of the matter is that many voters have very limited vocabularies. Studies have shown over and over that many people cast "yes" or "no" votes without reading ANY of the text provided on the ballot, and the percentage who only read a word or two (usually scanning for words like "tax") is even larger.

[Raintree21]

I think the Observer has done a decent job so far of putting the issues out there and trying to explain them in simple terms. There may be some slant to the articles, but at least the options are printed in black and white for people to see and decide on their own.

[uptownliving]

I think that the Transit Tax Repeal is going to be very close. I don't feel comfortable making a prediction either way. If the Transit Tax does remain I hope we don't have to go through another vote like this again...it has been very "taxing"

[Spartan]

I heard somewhere that the number of people who voted in advance this year is 66% higher than the last local election. But that means little, as I didn't see a number attached to that. For all I know its all UP voters

[reverbandwhiskey]

If they repeal the tax, couldn't local government just create a new one, with a slightly more vague title?

[Raintree21]

I heard somewhere that the number of people who voted in advance this year is 66% higher than the last local election. But that means little, as I didn't see a number attached to that. For all I know its all UP voters

[DeeMan]

If they repeal the tax, couldn't local government just create a new one, with a slightly more vague title?

[monsoon]

They could but it would simply be wrong. It would totaly undermine the point of this vote we had and ignoring what the majority of the population has voted for would simply be inmature and corrupt. They could however create a new tax that's only for the bus system and road expansion, repairs, etc.

[Charlotte_native]

I heard somewhere that the number of people who voted in advance this year is 66% higher than the last local election. But that means little, as I didn't see a number attached to that. For all I know its all UP voters

[monsoon]

I voted this mid-morning. Had to wait in line for a while.

[Justadude]

I wonder if that means there will be an overall increase in people voting or if the same general number will vote, just many more voting early.

[wheatie]

The O is reporting heavier-than-usual turnout. Regardless of what impact it has on the results, this can only be good for the city.

[Justadude]

^ Even in that situation I prefer a large turnout to a small one, where the fringe groups have the loudest voice. Even if some of the increase in voting is due to mobilization by special interests, it only means that the result will more accurately reflect the opinions of the politically-interested population.

If the transit tax gets voted down, it's not the fault of the anti-tax crowd for being active but of the pro-tax crowd for not showing up.

[voyager12]

The worst thing to have is an apathetic electorate. Regardless of whether one agrees with election results increased participation should be celebrated . I still think the transit tax is not going to get repealed. But the higher turnout today has given me some pause....I would think the numbers represent people who are angry and want to stop future rail construction. The silent majority will think "oh it's not going to get repealed" and may not turn out in large numbers. I hope I am wrong.

[Charlotte_native]

The worst thing to have is an apathetic electorate. Regardless of whether one agrees with election results increased participation should be celebrated . I still think the transit tax is not going to get repealed. But the higher turnout today has given me some pause....I would think the numbers represent people who are angry and want to stop future rail construction. The silent majority will think "oh it's not going to get repealed" and may not turn out in large numbers. I hope I am wrong.