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Charlotte Mecklenburg Election Predictions


monsoon

Charlotte Mecklenburg Election Predictions  

57 members have voted

  1. 1. McCroy Re-Elected

    • No
      2
    • Yes
      55
  2. 2. CMS Bond Package Passed

    • No
      10
    • Yes
      47
  3. 3. Transit Tax Repeal?

    • Will be Passed (tax eliminated)
      7
    • Will be Defeated (tax remains)
      50
  4. 4. Voter Turnout

    • Lower than average
      18
    • Higher than average
      39


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While I agree that both sides were in hysterics by the end of October, and advertising certainly affected the outcome to some degree, I'm not so sure that it was as one-sided as the Observer article indicates. WBT radio broadcasted about 6 solid months of anti-transit content, which varied from editorial pieces and attempts at legitimate argument to outright propoganda. The Rhino Times has pretty much not let up on berating CATS since it was founded. The pro-tax side never had that kind of 24/7 presence in the media, especially since the anti-taxers objected loudly every time someone close to CATS spent a dime on pro-tax advertising. Also, just a couple of days ago we were talking about how anti-tax yardsigns and bumper stickers had a 10-to-1 advantage.

We'll never know exactly why the vote ended the way it did, because there is no way to track data with certainty. But from where I sit, it appears that the anti-tax side really hammered home the message deeply to a small but active constituency, and put their hopes in getting people angry enough to mobilize toward the polls; whereas the pro-tax side put out a more general message meant to reach a majority of people, not necessarily mobilizing them but planting the idea in their heads before they went to the polls. It's pretty clear that the results countywide indicated a large majority supported the tax, so obviously this did not break down to this-or-that part of town being on a particular side.

I have a feeling that the results of the poll reflect two things: 1) A general opposition to the repeal that was independent of campaign tactics, and 2) A poor job by the pro-repeal side of getting their message beyond friendly ears and into the critical undecided portion of the electorate.

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While I agree that both sides were in hysterics by the end of October, and advertising certainly affected the outcome to some degree, I'm not so sure that it was as one-sided as the Observer article indicates. WBT radio broadcasted about 6 solid months of anti-transit content, which varied from editorial pieces and attempts at legitimate argument to outright propoganda. The Rhino Times has pretty much not let up on berating CATS since it was founded. The pro-tax side never had that kind of 24/7 presence in the media, especially since the anti-taxers objected loudly every time someone close to CATS spent a dime on pro-tax advertising. Also, just a couple of days ago we were talking about how anti-tax yardsigns and bumper stickers had a 10-to-1 advantage.
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Another small factor was that the transit question was at the end of the ballot. It would be easy to cast your (touchscreen) ballot without casting a vote on this. The machine will prompt you for an incomplete ballot and ask if you are sure... but still. If you did not feel motivated to look for the transit question, you might miss it. Assumedly, the PRO repeal side would be angrier and more motivated...

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I think that what is most telling is not the 70/30 split, but that the "for repeal" votes were about 10,000 away from the number of signatures needed on the petition that started this whole debate in the first place. To me this sends a clear signal about what the residents of Mecklenburg County want. That and the fact that there were only two precincts with less than 50% against repeal.

To their credit the folks who were behind those for repeal efforts did a good job of making us all think about transit and whether or not it is the direction Charlotte wants to take.

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That's quite a stretch when you don't know the reasons why the tax was voted for. In the observer article you mention, it also says this. "But in the two months before the election, transit tax supporters spent heavily with a television and radio blitz that helped widen their margin of victory." I am firmly convinced that Americans including those here in Charlotte vote without knowing what they are voting for and that elections are decided by how much cash is spent on campaigns. This is how we got a second term of GW Bush in 2004, but the people are paying the price for that mistake now.
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I want to congratulate and thank all that took the time to vote this Tuesday to retain the transit tax. I doubt if in the entire history of mankind, 70% of a truly free populace has voted willingly to be taxed. Both sides of the issue were thoroughly aired and I for one, do believe in the collective wisdom of the American people. Even if an election goes a way that I may initially disagree with, I am always amazed that Americans almost always get it right when it comes to voting.

I am heading off to see State and Carolina play football this weekend in Raleigh. The traffic there is worse that it is here, in my opinion. However, it is interesting the dichotomy that exists between Charlotte-Mecklenburg and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill. We in Charlotte have taken a proactive position towards transit problems and are choosing to do things that as I have told my teenage daughter, will benefit her and her children (that have not yet been born) much more than they ever will benefit me.

However, in Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, there is a cacophony of political voices that refuse or are unable to address their traffic problems in a positive manner that we have chosen to. For an interesting read, go to the NC Triangle forum and read the many posts where they express sincere and genuine envy of Charlotte/Mecklenburg and what we are doing to address our transit issues. Once again, thanks to everyone who voted to retain the transit tax.

It is time now to move on and work for the future of our city that is as bright as any in the entire nation.

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