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Kia's Impact

ATLman1

By ATLman1
in Columbus

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gah Whistle-Stop

gah

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I dont think that KIA PLANT was ever anticipated to have much DIRECT effect on Columbus (unlike BRAC, AFLAC, etc). Certainly a number of workers will commute there, but the vast majority will live closer (Troup, Meriwether, Chambers, Lee). The effect on Columbus will be more INDIRECT ranging from a Kia supplier (if can snag one) locating there and the Kia employees commuting TO Columbus for shopping/entertainment. Obviously Atlanta is a bigger draw, but Columbus has everything that a Kia employee would want (other than big league professional sports) without the traffic. Very few Kia employees will drive to Lenox to go to NM or Bloomies, when they can drive to Columbus and shop at all the other major middle-class retailers (not sure what is available in LaGrange but do know that my relatives there drive to Columbus often to shop/go to plays etc)

Bottom line, KIA could have an much greater effect on Columbus, than on Atlanta. But not as great as on areas that are geographiclly closer to the plant. No surprise there.

Dont consider Harris County to be anti-growth or that its zoning laws will have any adverse effect on KIA's indirect economic impact on Columbus. The idea is to preserve the quality of life there and ensure that Harris does not become a poster child for tacky suburban sprawl. Can fault them for the methods employed to control growth, but dont think you can characterize those methods as anti-growth. All things considered, I do not feel like Harris is the "missing link" in the chain of Atlanta-Columbus growth. The way I see it, Harris is the jewel in the crown of the Valley's quality of life and a welcome buffer between unrestrained commercialism on either side of the equation. For example, I-I85 just received a scenic highway designation, a rarely conferred honor (only 5-6 in Georgia) which means that billboards/advertising cannot be displayed along it so as to preserve the natural vistas. When driving back and forth, I appreciate the scenery and enjoy the contrast to the crappy views along I-85. When transitioning from-to I-85/I-185 the difference is immediately apparent. Harris is a "special" case and I, for one, hope that it stays that way. It can be a valued link in the Columbus-Atlanta economic chain without also becoming just another indiscriminate suburb. A gated community (on a large scale) in an area which has plenty of room to satisfy the demand for more downscale growth.

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aboutmetro Hamlet

aboutmetro

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I dont think that KIA PLANT was ever anticipated to have much DIRECT effect on Columbus (unlike BRAC, AFLAC, etc). Certainly a number of workers will commute there, but the vast majority will live closer (Troup, Meriwether, Chambers, Lee). The effect on Columbus will be more INDIRECT ranging from a Kia supplier (if can snag one) locating there and the Kia employees commuting TO Columbus for shopping/entertainment. Obviously Atlanta is a bigger draw, but Columbus has everything that a Kia employee would want (other than big league professional sports) without the traffic. Very few Kia employees will drive to Lenox to go to NM or Bloomies, when they can drive to Columbus and shop at all the other major middle-class retailers (not sure what is available in LaGrange but do know that my relatives there drive to Columbus often to shop/go to plays etc)

Bottom line, KIA could have an much greater effect on Columbus, than on Atlanta. But not as great as on areas that are geographiclly closer to the plant. No surprise there.

Dont consider Harris County to be anti-growth or that its zoning laws will have any adverse effect on KIA's indirect economic impact on Columbus. The idea is to preserve the quality of life there and ensure that Harris does not become a poster child for tacky suburban sprawl. Can fault them for the methods employed to control growth, but dont think you can characterize those methods as anti-growth. All things considered, I do not feel like Harris is the "missing link" in the chain of Atlanta-Columbus growth. The way I see it, Harris is the jewel in the crown of the Valley's quality of life and a welcome buffer between unrestrained commercialism on either side of the equation. For example, I-I85 just received a scenic highway designation, a rarely conferred honor (only 5-6 in Georgia) which means that billboards/advertising cannot be displayed along it so as to preserve the natural vistas. When driving back and forth, I appreciate the scenery and enjoy the contrast to the crappy views along I-85. When transitioning from-to I-85/I-185 the difference is immediately apparent. Harris is a "special" case and I, for one, hope that it stays that way. It can be a valued link in the Columbus-Atlanta economic chain without also becoming just another indiscriminate suburb. A gated community (on a large scale) in an area which has plenty of room to satisfy the demand for more downscale growth.

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gah Whistle-Stop

gah

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Missed these before...

Efficiency does matter; western US cities have grown despite far greater water scarcity than the southeast, but they had to deal with it to begin with versus adjusting to decades of not caring about water use (and that's the entire southeast, not just metro Atlanta).

Do you have a source/statistics to support your assertion that metro Atlanta has used more than its equitable share of water from the watershed? (I'll ignore for the moment that the watershed in question originates in north Georgia). I think I have to disagree with your contention that Atlanta's growth has been artificially high; there are reasons people and companies moved to Atlanta and water probably didn't factor into most of those decisions. All the water in the world can't replicate Atlanta's business environment and other resources in communities along the river in south Georgia, south Alabama, or north Florida.

It's not an assumption, a large percentage of the suburban/exurban sprawl developments in metro Atlanta did not attach to sewers because it was more expensive than using septic systems.

As to whether there are people selfish enough to water their lawn during a drought, you may have missed the (not isolated) reports about people turning in their neighbors for watering violations in Atlanta's 'burbs.

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gah Whistle-Stop

gah

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I guess we just agree to disagree regarding Harris County. Except that their ... growth avoidance.. come directly from 3/5ths of the County Commission. If you're not for growth, be it smart or whatever the recent buzz word is, then you're against it. Again, some Kia plant workers may be able to afford to commute to Columbus to live, but at the wages the suppliers will be paying, none of those will. Most are expected to come from Newnan/Coweta. Where, incidentally, there is already shopping and that group does travel north to do their mall shopping, according to retailers studies. No doubt some dollars may trickle down the I-185 culdesac, but not what the Chamber has hawked.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against trees and greenery. I quite like it. However, I'm not a fan of poorly planned, or in the case of Harris, un-planned growth. The 2-acre minimums were supposed to be a stop-gap measure to give the leadership time to plan appropriately so that it didn't get overwhelmed. That was 5 years ago. One urban planner in DC has said that it's poor planning will come to fruition in 20-30 years when the majority residential property tax base will have to support an aging population and aging infrastructure. The County can't grow in a way that attracts commercial tax base to help pay those bills. Much less enough population to make nearby medical services feasible.

Your right. Most Columbus growth will come from Benning, just as it did throughout the 20th century. Aflac didn't make a big spash housing-wise, which is to say growth-wise. I suspect many laid-off Bradley workers were absorbed, so thank goodness Aflac was there to plug that leak.

Brac impact on the market will be intersting to see. I don't think it will go the way many of us expect. Not the size, but where... But that's a discussion for another thread.

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aboutmetro Hamlet

aboutmetro

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New thead.

You're right re; Kia wages, but that won't be the case for a majority of the suppliers. Those employees will need to live close to the plants.

If Kia felt Columbus was an important employment center, they would have located a recruitment center here. The offices are in Lagrange and Opelika. Kia located in West Point because it was as close as it could get to Montgomery and get the GA economic incentives. Period. That company looks north and south along I-85. The Columbus Chamber tried to glean some limelight, but produced nothing so far with 50% of the suppliers signed on.

Keep in mind the plant is on the west side of I-85. Commute times from Columbus are at the 45-minute mark. 25 minutes longer than the average commute in Columbus today. At $3 a gallon, what will that commute cost the employee. Median home prices of new construction in Harris are hovering at $300k. That's the important number to look at. Existing homes on the market will have to be replaced by expensive homes. In that bubble at that time in this market, housing will be very hot.

Then, the County has no east-west corridor - something they've discussed remedying, and could be fixed by the Benning Bypass that's been discussed in different forums, but is a decade away if it's real. For Harris, living along the I-185 corridor means the GA 315 intersection with limited housing options. The Grove might help, but won't be ready in time for Kia. Not to be a pessimist, but I just do see the numbers shaking out for Columbus workers unwilling to relocate. There aren't alot of housing options. A quick Realtor.com search found this.

This brings me to an overlooked effect. The impact of Kia won't be direct. It will be in the housing it absorbs. The current economy is depressing the development of new housing which means that Kia and Brac spec homes aren't being built. At least 5,392 residential units are on the drawing board for Troup/Chambers/Meriwether. (None announced north of 315 since Kia, which should tell you how confident developers are in Kia residents in Harris). A total of 15,000+ on the drawing board market-wide all the way south to Barbour County. Most on hold since the housing market crawled to an almost stand-still, and suburban ones since fuel prices spiked above $2.50. If Kia is able to absorb Harris homes, that wil push Brac housing farther south and west into Alabama.

My prediction is that fuel prices will hold the keys for 2008--- . And water could be the new oil.

Your point is well taken re: Aflac campus wages.

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gah Whistle-Stop

gah

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Dont disagree (and never have) on the main points

Few workers will commute from Columbus to KIA for reasons cited -- gas and commute times.

Entirely logical that KIA would have employment offices in LG and O-A, as bulk of new workers will obviously come from there.

Effect of KIA on Columbus always anticipated to be indirect (ripple effect) and agree that -- disappointingly -- none of those ripples in the form of a supplier has surfaced yet.

Entirely okay with bulk of KIA (and BRAC) employees locating outside Columbus SMA. Still think that makes for stronger Columbus Trade Area numbers and will serve to draw more and more businesses and opportunities to the area. Something is going to have to locate in Muscogee Tech park and other land available in Columbus SMA. KIA wont provide instant gratification. Neither will BRAC considering the low wages (tho some of those civilian enginerrs probably get big bucks). However all things considered i would rather have KIA 45 minutes away than 4 hours away along I-85 in SC.

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ATLman1 Hamlet

ATLman1

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Work moving along at Kia Motors site: Construction on schedule, possibly ahead

news02.jpg

From the LaGrange Daily News

Steel beams are on the move at the Kia Motors site, and the frame for the massive plant is expected to be up this month.

The project is on or

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aboutmetro Hamlet

aboutmetro

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There was discussion in a topic about Atlanta's growth that was shut down due to errant topic... but there started some discussion about Metro Atlanta's growth southward toward Lagrange in the COLA region (Columbus-Opelika-Lagrange-Auburn) via the I-85 widening. The point is that, as Atlanta's orbit captures more of the state, the less that there is for Georgia's other metro areas. The opportunity for Kia to help draw in Lagrange to Columbus' orbit is definitely impacted by the I-85 corridor. That Corridor will either create an 'orbit' of its own, or, if there's enough commuting between Columbus, Opelika-Auburn and Lagrange-West Point, then maybe somehow the three will get more economically and demographically interwoven. Since Harris has such restricted land use codes, it creates a 'road block' to growth and therefore creation of an I-185 economic corridor to create that 'triangle' of economic bonds.

So, there needs to be a better transport link, Like I-22 with the Benning Bypass to help create that bond. Otherwise, the I-85 Corridor will continue to get absorbed into the Atlanta orbit. Or, at the very least, a new north metro bridge across the Chattahoochee to tie together north Columbus, South Harris to Lee-Chambers to access the Kia growth explosion without Harris participating.

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aboutmetro Hamlet

aboutmetro

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The Alabama media is reporting today (Montgomery Advertiser article) that Hyundai/Kia is potentially moving the production of the Santa Fe from Alabama to the new Kia Borrego plant in West Point, GA. No indication if that would mean even more jobs for the East Alabama, West Georgia I-85 corridor or not.

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