Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[kermit]

16 hours ago, Durhamite said:

Ok, serious question, don’t y’all think if they were capable, they would increase frequency?  This is clearly a current state of things that isn’t just a CATs issue…I mean  CATs is isn’t on an island when everyone else is  trying to balance staff, ridership, maintenance etc.  what do y’all know that they don’t?  

Fair question and a solid point.

My point of view is that CATS is saving money from operating just three trains an hour and they feel like no one [who is important] is going to complain about the low frequencies in any significant way so they think they can get away with these frequencies. This is doubly true since they have an interim director who doesn't need to worry much about rider feedback since he wants to leave the job ASAP. I would bet management feels like they will get a bigger pat on the back from taking positive budget news to the city at the end of the year than they would from spending all of their operations money but having happier riders (and IMO, the Council has shown that they don't really care much about riders either).

Its certainly true that I have no inside information about what happens over there. And to be fair they are increasing to 4 TPH (at peak only) tomorrow.

While this may come off as the rantings of a delusional dilettante, I gotta say CATS has beaten a large amount of goodwill out of me after many years of regular ridership. I just don't feel like the current (and former) management has much interest in growing ridership. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by kermit

[elrodvt]

14 hours ago, southslider said:

^3-car platforms and trains would also be the appropriate project right now to take advantage of increased federal funds without increasing local funds

Assuming it's possible to use the funds this way I think I'd rather work on increased frequency and specials. Probably should do both. 

To increase frequency do we have enough trains? Or is it a driver issue? Plus all the really slow sections must hurt? 

[kermit]

On 2/5/2023 at 7:30 PM, elrodvt said:

Assuming it's possible to use the funds this way I think I'd rather work on increased frequency and specials. Probably should do both. 

To increase frequency do we have enough trains? Or is it a driver issue? Plus all the really slow sections must hurt? 

Federal funds can generally only be used for capital investments, not operations (normally. Pandemic stimulus funds were an exception).

Pre pandemic CATS ran two unit sets every 7.5 minutes at peak, so yes, we do have enough trains. CATS has been consistent in blaming a driver shortage for reduced frequency over the past year or so.

Edited February 8, 2023 by kermit

[TCLT]

Federal funds can generally only be used for capital investments, not operations (normally. Pandemic stimulus funds were earmarked for operations).
Pre pandemic CATS ran two unit sets every 7.5 minutes at peak, so yes, we do have enough trains. CATS has been consistent in blaming a driver shortage for reduced frequency over the past year or so.

Aren’t the currently going through a major overhaul cycle for the original blue line trains? And they have to ship the cars to California or something to get the work done. So there will be more units out of service than normal for a while until they all complete their maintenance.

[kermit]

7 hours ago, TCLT said:

Aren’t the currently going through a major overhaul cycle for the original blue line trains? And they have to ship the cars to California or something to get the work done. So there will be more units out of service than normal for a while until they all complete their maintenance.

That was the case almost four three years ago. I had hoped the Lewis used the pandemic draw down as a window to get those overhauls done. But CATS has not said a word about it. Worst case, if the overhauls are not complete, the loss of a set took peak frequencies back to 10 minutes (6TPH) so we still have considerable scope to ramp frequencies up.

Edited February 6, 2023 by kermit

[TCLT]

3 hours ago, kermit said:

That was the case almost four years ago. I had hoped the Lewis used the pandemic draw down as a window to get those overhauls done. But CATS has not said a word about it. Worst case, if the overhauls are not complete, the loss of a set took peak frequencies back to 10 minutes (6TPH) so we still have considerable scope to ramp frequencies up.

From last week's MTC meeting, Brent Cagle noted that the midlife overhaul for the first tranche of cars is already included in this year's budget ($50 million). The process to overhaul all of the first tranche vehicles is "starting now" and will take 6 years to complete. Here is that portion of his response. So the overhauls are very much not complete.

Regarding the 7.5 minute frequencies, were those frequencies achieved even after the BLE opened? I can't remember. And I assume more vehicles are needed to maintain those frequencies on the longer full line. Just curious if even 10 minute frequencies are achievable without the full complement of vehicles.

[kermit]

I went back to the best available archive of CATS issues, this thread. Here is what I found from October 2019-Feb 2020:

• The Blue Line was running beyond capacity at morning and afternoon peaks (lots of discussions of trains too full to board)
• Lots of complaints about missing / cancelled trains on top of the capacity crunch
• At one point CATS (John Lewis at MTC IIRC) was asked about increasing capacity and he said it would take two years from the time funding was approved to manufacture and test new LRT vehicles.
• News about the need to overhaul the 100 series gear appeared in February 2020. CATS said they needed to reduce frequency by 90 seconds to accommodate the removal of one vehicle (train?) at a time (several different numbers are reported as to the new frequency, all were 10 minutes or less)
• So I guess given the Cagle news, CATS never started the overhauls. Lewis certainly made it sound like they were underway (and budgeted) in February 2020 — he certainly reduced frequencies so they could get started. To be fair, this was just a month before the world locked down.

On 12/10/2019 at 10:48 AM, Hushpuppy321 said:

I’m not sure how many of you saw the WBTV report concerning increased Blue Line frequency during the ACC Championship Game.  They’re reporting that CATS increased frequency to run trains every 8-10 minutes during the lead up to the Game and afterwards.  

Anyone go to the game notice that?  Did CATS actually do something right?

 

On 1/9/2020 at 4:34 PM, Matthew.Brendan said:

Are there cars out of service? Train in this morning was at crush capacity and every stop past Sugar Creek inbound had people left behind on the platform to wait on the next train. 
 

Now outbound the train is late and I’ve never seen so many people on the platform. 
 

edit: last update on CATS twitter was Dec 17 ??!!
 

No announcements on loudspeaker. People commenting “it was like this yesterday too”  

edit 2: northbound train just showed up on the southbound tracks ???!!!

#wtfcats

 

On 2/14/2020 at 5:11 PM, kermit said:

1) I am very glad that John Lewis has finally acknowledged that there is a reliability problem

2) WTF took so long for him to make this admission?

 

On 2/18/2020 at 11:32 PM, kermit said:

I am not sure I share the outrage here (although I might change my mind). 

It sounds to me like CATS did have a plan to overhaul its 100 series vehicles. Unfortunately, the extra (unexpected) 6 minutes of run time on the BLE (which wee have still never gotten a good explanation for) prevents CATS from being able to ship a trainset off for overhaul without reducing frequency.

I suspect that Lewis thought he would be able to get BLE runtimes up to spec (and thus commence overhauls), but recently found out that will be impossible.  (perhaps not coincidentally, work on N Tryon crossings appears to be done). So it appears that incompetent construction management (or design or acceptance or...) has led us to a situation where its impossible to pull a unit out of service for overhaul AND CATS needs to purchase additional vehicles to run the planned frequencies. To top it off, CATS also has peak hour capacity problems, so the reduced frequency will be a double whammy on ridership.  

One possible short-term solution would be to get the newly arrived streetcar units through the testing process and put them to work on the Blue Line ASAP. Seating capacity will be limited, but it is better than nothing and would at least show that CATS is making an effort to ease the crunch.  I have seen two gold line units coupled together in the North Yard, so running two unit trains with the equipment should be possible.

a slightly longer shot would be for CATS to approach Norfolk about the prospects of leasing one or two of their units (which are identical to ours) from their underused system.

The fact that all this happened while CATS is preparing (?) to ask the public for substantially more money is truly incompetent.  I think I am outraged after all...

 

On 2/19/2020 at 12:11 AM, kermit said:

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by kermit

[kermit]

2 hours ago, TCLT said:

From last week's MTC meeting, Brent Cagle noted that the midlife overhaul for the first tranche of cars is already included in this year's budget ($50 million). The process to overhaul all of the first tranche vehicles is "starting now" and will take 6 years to complete. Here is that portion of his response. So the overhauls are very much not complete.

Are you sure this amount wasn’t $15 million? It was hard for me to tell from the audio in the video. I believe the vehicles sell new for <$4 million.

Edited February 6, 2023 by kermit

[Reverie39]

18 hours ago, Durhamite said:

Ok, serious question, don’t y’all think if they were capable, they would increase frequency?  This is clearly a current state of things that isn’t just a CATs issue…I mean  CATs is isn’t on an island when everyone else is  trying to balance staff, ridership, maintenance etc.  what do y’all know that they don’t?  
 

Are some of y’all in weekly, daily mtgs with key decision makers? Seriously, I’m in the energy biz, some of the crap people want is just unrealistic ..they have no idea how fragile the grid really is until something happens like this past holiday season.
 

 I think that’s why they are extremely cautious, the unintended consequences of ramping up too quickly. it could make things worse, real fast and watch the beotching then. 

I might be remembering it wrong, but I seem to remember it being established that the issue before was primarily a lack of drivers, right? If that's the case then the solution could mostly just be offering better pay and benefits to lure drivers in. Which doesn't put the blame directly on CATS - perhaps they just don't have the money to do it. But if this is true it feels like SOMEONE at the city should be able to fix it. I don't think many other rapid transit systems are having quite this level of reduced frequencies so far out from the pandemic. So there is something uniquely wrong in Charlotte.

[TCLT]

45 minutes ago, kermit said:

Are you sure this amount wasn’t $15 million? It was hard for me to tell from the audio in the video. I believe the sell new for <$4 million.

Good question. It really sounds like he says 50 in the video. Is the CATS budget not a public document, because I can't easily find it anywhere.  I did find a FY2022 Budget document for what looks like the whole city and it has a summary for "Maintain Transit Vehicles" on pg 386. Based on the proposed expense over the 5 years covered it could go either way depending on whether he meant just this year or in total and whether he was citing the total maintenance number or was being specific to the light rail vehicles. But I don't think him saying $50 million is out of the question.

[elrodvt]

Presumably then we could get funding to get more trains if required. Seems like this is an open question.

I also wonder if there are investments possible to make any of the crossings such that the trains can go through faster? Or does that only work for commuter lines? I can't remember the technology it was so long ago but remember some discussion about that with the Denver airport commuter. I suppose if the trains went 30% faster we'd improve frequency. On the other hand it would kind of destroy the ambience of the trail? 

They could also go after money to make all the buses hybrid. 

[JRCLT]

Presumably then we could get funding to get more trains if required. Seems like this is an open question.
I also wonder if there are investments possible to make any of the crossings such that the trains can go through faster? Or does that only work for commuter lines? I can't remember the technology it was so long ago but remember some discussion about that with the Denver airport commuter. I suppose if the trains went 30% faster we'd improve frequency. On the other hand it would kind of destroy the ambience of the trail? 
They could also go after money to make all the buses hybrid. 

All the crossings have gates I’m not sure why the trains don’t run faster through them. They’re also relatively short ( 2-cars ).

[kermit]

Perhaps I misread the frequency increase announcement? CATS running the same morning peak schedule as last week today…

EDIT: NM, apparently peak ends at 9am now…

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by kermit

[dylansukkert]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

Perhaps I misread the frequency increase announcement? CATS running the same morning peak schedule as last week today…

EDIT: NM, apparently peak ends at 9am now…

 

The two extra trains between 7-9am didn’t help much, still slammed pack. Also checking tickets this AM. 

[Hushpuppy321]

Been doing some research on Austin’s Transit woes (Project Connect) and how costs have doubled for their planned Light Rail Lines (Orange & Blue).  They are funding Transit with a 20% hike in Property Taxes (Not sure if only City orAustin or all of Travis County) - Do you all think something like that could work for this Area if the Sales Tax Referendum never materializes?  

Edited February 9, 2023 by Hushpuppy321

[CLT2014]

2 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Been doing some research on Austin’s Transit woes (Project Connect) and how costs have doubled for their planned Light Rail Lines (Orange & Blue).  They are funding Transit with a 20% hike in Property Taxes (Not sure if only City orAustin or all of Travis County) - Do you all think something like that could work for this Area if the Sales Tax Referendum never materializes?  

One major difference between Charlotte and Austin with a popular vote... the owner occupied housing rate. 

Austin: 44.7% owner occupied vs 55.3% renter

Charlotte: 52.7% owner occupied vs 47.3% renter

Austin's proposition passed very close to their renter rate at 57.94% in favor. While property tax increases can pass down to renters, it is harder to directly calculate the financial impact to you as an individual voter (i.e. will your rent raise $40 a year or $600 a year due to the property tax increase being passed to you by landlord eventually). In Charlotte, more voters are going to be homeowners who will be able to directly calculate how much a property tax increase will impact their personal budget before they vote. They can just look at their most recent bill and do the math to make a decision.

Austin's plan also touched a significant portion of the city limits and population clusters. Voters that lived near a transit line were significantly more likely to vote in favor of the transit tax and the census tracts to the west largely were majority opposed as they were the main area of Austin not getting a line. In Charlotte, the Silver Line leaves out vast swaths of the city so they really need to sell the airport benefit. North Charlotte, northwest Charlotte, Steele Creek area, Ballantyne, South Charlotte, and Rocky River areas of Charlotte weren't really slatted to benefit from the Silver Line directly. If city-limits funded, you also need to cut Matthews out of the Silver Line unless they also vote to tax themselves. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by CLT2014

[Reverie39]

It's gonna be interesting to see how Austin's plans come to fruition over time. I respect their ambition but wouldn't be surprised if what ends up happening falls significantly short of lofty expectations. To be fair, that might just mean that setting lofty expectations is the only way to get anything done.

[KJHburg]

2 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Been doing some research on Austin’s Transit woes (Project Connect) and how costs have doubled for their planned Light Rail Lines (Orange & Blue).  They are funding Transit with a 20% hike in Property Taxes (Not sure if only City orAustin or all of Travis County) - Do you all think something like that could work for this Area if the Sales Tax Referendum never materializes?  

Austin already has the highest property taxes of any major city in the state where the property taxes on average are much higher than NC.  

[Hushpuppy321]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

Austin already has the highest property taxes of any major city in the state where the property taxes on average are much higher than NC.  

Wow - Sales Tax should be the way to go then to get most people involved (Residents & Visitor Spending) with helping fund Transit expansion.  NCGA really should let / allow the referendum to take place.  Not optimistic though.

Anyway - Austin’s RedLine is an interesting Commuter Rail-Lite concept.

[The ATX]

Austin's light rail/subway plans will be severely curtailed just because building cost inflation is eating away at the approved funds for the grand plan while all the engineering & right of way issues are being worked on pre-construction.

[Hushpuppy321]

1 hour ago, The ATX said:

Austin's light rail/subway plans will be severely curtailed just because building cost inflation is is eating away at the approved funds for the grand plan while all the engineering & right of way issues are being worked on pre-construction.

Dang - makes me wish CLT had gotten Lightrail back in the 80s/90s.  Everything just seems to be so out of reach nowadays…

[15895]

27 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Dang - makes me wish CLT had gotten Lightrail back in the 80s/90s.  Everything just seems to be so out of reach nowadays…

Politics… Excluding Streetcar & Commuter Rail, the following is currently U/C:

Honolulu has 20 Miles heavy rail U/C

DC has 16 Miles Light Rail U/C

LA has 24 miles of heavy & light rail U/C

Minneapolis has 15 Miles Light Rail U/C

Seattle has 35 Miles Light Rail U/C

Phoenix has 8 miles LRT U/C

In 2022 the following were complete:

Boston LRT - 5 Miles 

L.A. LRT - 15 Miles 

San Francisco (Underground) Streetcar - 3.5 miles

Philadelphia Commuter Rail - 3.5 Miles  

Phoenix Streetcar - 3 Miles 

DC HRT - 12 miles 

In 2021 the following were complete (Covid)

Charlotte Streetcar - 2.5 Miles 

San Diego LRT - 11 Miles 

Seattle LRT - 3 miles 

In 2020 (Covid) the following were complete:

San Francisco HRT - 11 Miles 

Denver Commuter Rail  - 13 miles 

The US was building similar amounts as 2022. Though it’s clear cities in bluer cities keep getting more transit and it only looks like the trend will accelerate of cities in blue states pushing aggressively for mass transit & green initiatives and conversely some states are actively hampering mass transit and only a couple miles of streetcar being mostly what those cities can achieve. I know I’m a broken record on that but it really does irk me it’s so political. 

Edited February 10, 2023 by AirNostrumMAD

[kermit]

From Rail Magazine's recent visit to CLT. I did not know these signals were in station bus bays. Aside from the value engineering, and the weird Scaleybark street running,  the designers of the South Line did a decent job.

https://twitter.com/RAILMag/status/1624765953060835328

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by kermit

[kayman]

On 2/9/2023 at 8:15 PM, AirNostrumMAD said:

Politics… Excluding Streetcar & Commuter Rail, the following is currently U/C:

Honolulu has 20 Miles heavy rail U/C

DC has 16 Miles Light Rail U/C

LA has 24 miles of heavy & light rail U/C

Minneapolis has 15 Miles Light Rail U/C

Seattle has 35 Miles Light Rail U/C

Phoenix has 8 miles LRT U/C

In 2022 the following were complete:

Boston LRT - 5 Miles 

L.A. LRT - 15 Miles 

San Francisco (Underground) Streetcar - 3.5 miles

Philadelphia Commuter Rail - 3.5 Miles  

Phoenix Streetcar - 3 Miles 

DC HRT - 12 miles 

In 2021 the following were complete (Covid)

Charlotte Streetcar - 2.5 Miles 

San Diego LRT - 11 Miles 

Seattle LRT - 3 miles 

In 2020 (Covid) the following were complete:

San Francisco HRT - 11 Miles 

Denver Commuter Rail  - 13 miles 

The US was building similar amounts as 2022. Though it’s clear cities in bluer cities keep getting more transit and it only looks like the trend will accelerate of cities in blue states pushing aggressively for mass transit & green initiatives and conversely some states are actively hampering mass transit and only a couple miles of streetcar being mostly what those cities can achieve. I know I’m a broken record on that but it really does irk me it’s so political. 

Good luck getting over your frustration.  The fascist mob of the red (sic GOP) have made everything political because they hate black & brown gaining more economic opportunities and influence, and social progress so they'll sabotage everything. 

[DCMetroRaleigh]

7 hours ago, kayman said:

Good luck getting over your frustration.  The fascist mob of the red (sic GOP) have made everything political because they hate black & brown gaining more economic opportunities and influence, and social progress so they'll sabotage everything. 

Facts