Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[MZT]

With the economy slowing down, it may not matter much who is running the Federal administration next year. Charlotte may need to plan on coming up with more than just 50%, in order to step to the front of the line for transit funding.

[monsoon]

^It's more difficult than that because the plan only calls for Charlotte or rather the county to pay 25%, not 50%.

[uptownliving]

In another twist, the FTA has downgraded it's rating for Miami-Dade in the same manner that it did for D.C. CATS had better be scrambling to get the NE line projections just right if it wasnts to get funding.

And just like DC the FTA is taking issue with their local funding sources and their doubts that the local transit agency will be able to fund and manage the Miami project. The FTA thinks the project is justified they just don't feel comfortable that Miami will be able to build the new project and then also come up with over $1B to renovate their current system to keep it in working order. Miami has not identified where the $1B would come from and until they do the FTA won't give them funding for the new line.

Charlotte doesn't have an old system in need of renovations so that is not something that CATS has to worry about. And unless our local economy has a complete and total collapse the local funding is rated Medium-High by the FTA.

What Charlotte will have to do is continue encouraging denser TOD along the NE Line to make sure it retains its current Medium Rating and make sure that the cost of this line doesn't explode like Miami and DC cost estimtes have.

[Nostyle]

Just thought I'd mention that today (Valentine's Day) the inspector on my train gave a 'free pass' to anyone who was carrying flowers for Valentine's Day.

[monsoon]

.....

What Charlotte will have to do is continue encouraging denser TOD along the NE Line to make sure it retains its current Medium Rating and make sure that the cost of this line doesn't explode like Miami and DC cost estimtes have.

The NE extension does not have a rating. Tober projected the project that it might get a medium rating based on expected ridership and the $750M price tag. They won't know if it will be rated medium or not until that work is done. All of it will depend upon CATS controlling its costs which they have demonstrated, so far, an inability to do.

I am thinking that if Miami and DC, both experienced transit operators, have issues with costs exploding, then things don't bode well for CATS.

[uptownliving]

The CATS NE Extention does have a rating...just go look at the FY 2009 New Starts report. It is in there and it is rated as a Medium. In fact the CATS Lynx LRT is on the cover of the FY 2009 Report. Anywho the information in that report is already dated as it was based on November 2007 data and it is expected that the ridership projections for the NE line will go up based on the actual ridership numbers from the South Line.

I think that if the costs for the NE Extention are contained and the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax holds strong and the ridership projections increase from where they are today...and more TOD is built along the line then it will qualify for funding. Time will tell.

[orulz]

I wish I could be as confident as you, but the FTA does have a bit of a history of moving the goalposts. TTA is a big example that comes to mind where support was withdrawin at some very late stage. Miami is another. Dulles is yet another. There was a certain justification given in each case, but when it comes down to it, FTA has a very limited pot of money from which to fund projects. If there are too many projects and not enough money in the budget in a given year, they will have to search out some reason--any reason--to disqualify a project so they don't wind up overcommitting their funds.

Hopefully Charlotte's great success with the South Corridor will prevent you guys from getting that same treatment, but it's happened in the past with other cities, so be wary.

[monsoon]

I stand corrected, the FTA has given "the proposal" a medium rating which was needed so it could be funded for preliminary engineering.

What caught my eye about that however are the comments that simply state there is no reason to build this line and the cost-effectiveness is rated medium-low which if that remains will keep the line from being awarded a FFGA. So as you point out about costs, CATS is already in trouble with it and my guess is the problem will get better now worse. I agree with Orulz these are two very easy targets for the FTA to shoot this project down. I continue to contend that if they will kill extensions to DC and Miami, then CATS isn't on good footing either.

[dxartist]

Finally got a chance to ride the Lynx this morning to work. The train was still full at 8:30am.

One thing did catch my attentention and several other passengers as well and it may be trivial. When the rail approached the Tyvola Station, we noticed the voice on the intercom pronounced "Tyvola" a little differently. We had these semi-confusing looks on our faces, then we laughed about it.

Isntead of saying TIE-VO-LA, it was pronounced TIV-OLA with the "Y" sounding like a short "i". I've been here for 10+ years and never once heard that pronounciation before (not even from a visitor).

Edited February 15, 2008 by dxartist

[ChiefJoJo]

I wish I could be as confident as you, but the FTA does have a bit of a history of moving the goalposts. TTA is a big example that comes to mind where support was withdrawin at some very late stage. Miami is another. Dulles is yet another. There was a certain justification given in each case, but when it comes down to it, FTA has a very limited pot of money from which to fund projects. If there are too many projects and not enough money in the budget in a given year, they will have to search out some reason--any reason--to disqualify a project so they don't wind up overcommitting their funds.

Hopefully Charlotte's great success with the South Corridor will prevent you guys from getting that same treatment, but it's happened in the past with other cities, so be wary.

Having the blue line in operation will help on all counts (unlike the TTA situation), but orulz is correct, and recent FTA actions support his assertion. The FTA annual new starts budget is, I believe about $1.5B, so they have to be frugal about which projects are awarded contracts. An FTA administrator told me recently that that NYC could easily gobble up all of the annual FTA new starts funding. It's a sad state of affairs in Washington, when the President can propose a record $3T budget, and transit funding continues to get table scraps. Hopefully, a new administration will be at least somewhat more proactive about funding assistance.

[hinsp0]

I stand corrected, the FTA has given "the proposal" a medium rating which was needed so it could be funded for preliminary engineering.

What caught my eye about that however are the comments that simply state there is no reason to build this line and the cost-effectiveness is rated medium-low which if that remains will keep the line from being awarded a FFGA. So as you point out about costs, CATS is already in trouble with it and my guess is the problem will get better now worse. I agree with Orulz these are two very easy targets for the FTA to shoot this project down. I continue to contend that if they will kill extensions to DC and Miami, then CATS isn't on good footing either.

I'm also worried that they'll kill the NE extension.

The DC extension to Dulles is much needed and would have high ridership numbers. However, the price tag balloned to a prohibatively expensive cost of $5 billion. The cost of the CATS NE line is miniscule compared to the Dulles extension and this relatively small cost figure in terms of the overall price tag, cost-effectiveness aside, may be CATS' saving grace.

[monsoon]

The 20 minute headways for this system on the weekends are way way too slow. I think they need to stop running a double every 20 and instead run a single every 10 minutes. You don't pickup ridership by not running trains.

[tozmervo]

I certainly wouldn't complain if they ran it more frequently on weekends. Although I'd be happy if they would just get past this construction nonsense and return to the timetable.

On a different note, I was wondering what kind of landscaping we could look forward to when regular rains return to our region. According to the New Bern station site plan, these are the trees that are going in on the platforms where the metal grates are now:

( http://www.dkimages.com/discover/Home/Plan...-Fastigi-1.html )

With six on each side (12 total) its going to dramatically change the character of the station.

[staffer]

some LYNX service changes effective February 25:

"The LYNX Blue Line is adjusting several trips to serve its customers better. The two weekday morning trips leaving I-485 Station at 9:02 and 9:22 a.m. that currently terminate at the Scaleybark Station will be extended to the Seventh Street Station. Two afternoon trips at 6:07 and 6:22 p.m. will no longer end at the New Bern Station, but go all the way to the end of the line at I-485. The one a.m. trips leaving the Seventh Street Station on weekdays and Saturday will also be extended all the way to the I-485 station."

This effectively extends the 7.5 minute inbound peak hour from 9 am to 9:30 am, and outbound from 6 pm to 6:30 pm.

[Andyc545]

some LYNX service changes effective February 25:

"The LYNX Blue Line is adjusting several trips to serve its customers better. The two weekday morning trips leaving I-485 Station at 9:02 and 9:22 a.m. that currently terminate at the Scaleybark Station will be extended to the Seventh Street Station. Two afternoon trips at 6:07 and 6:22 p.m. will no longer end at the New Bern Station, but go all the way to the end of the line at I-485. The one a.m. trips leaving the Seventh Street Station on weekdays and Saturday will also be extended all the way to the I-485 station."

This effectively extends the 7.5 minute inbound peak hour from 9 am to 9:30 am, and outbound from 6 pm to 6:30 pm.

I'm really glad they are extending these lines. I know it gets confusing for a lot of people wondering if they should get on, or go halfway down the line and wait for the next, etc. It didn't really make sense in the first place, so I'm glad they decided on this, especially during these crucial time periods.

[swampfox43]

Did anyone here get the latest Lynx survey? Not sure if the link I provided will work for everyone, but the survey starts by asking if I used my free scratch off pass provided in Nov. Then it asked if I am currently riding Lynx. Also asks to select a destination I use Lynx for (work, shopping, restaurant, special event). Have I used the ticket vending machine and what type of pass did I purchase (1 way, 1 day, 7 day, Quick Ticket), and the best question was "Have you noticed an improvement in the ticket vending machines (TVMs) over the last several weeks?" allowing additional comments if needed. My comment was based on my experience last Thursday evening.

Me and some friends used Lynx last Thurs to go to a concert at the Belk Theater on 2-14. The two friends I was with had never ridden Lynx before yet neither seemed to have any problem with the ticket purchasing.

The one thing I would like to see improve with them is the time it takes for the machine to reset for the next customer. After you complete your purchase, and retrieve your ticket, the ticket machine takes about 10-12 seconds to reset before the next person can start the process again. These seconds can be very valuable when there are 4 or 5 people waiting to purchase and the train is approaching. Has anyone else noticed that?

Edited February 19, 2008 by swampfox43

[MZT]

I filled out the survey too... told CATS I get monthly passes now so that I don't have to use the machines anymore. They're too slow and too often out of service.

(And yes, I agree it seems to take a long time for a machine to be ready for the next purchaser.)

[uptownliving]

Had a first time experince on the Lynx yesterday.

I was riding home from 485 back towards uptown in a 2 car train and I was sitting in the very last row facing backwords and was able to see out through the cab...pretty neat to ride the train backwords and see out the back window.

Anywho... the new experience was a group of about 4 young German parents with their kids....speaking German. To my surprise when I got off at Bland St in the seats 2 rows behind me was one of the parents changing their kids diper. They had the kid laid out in the seat while they stood in the aisle doing their work changing the diper. It was not very crowded on the train...but lets just say I was really glad to be getting off the train.

Anyone else had this happen on the Lynx line?

[Andyc545]

LYNX Ridership Numbers for January:

January was down from December (as it should have been given the three Panthers home games that didn't take place in January). Anywho the numbers:

11,930 weekday trips Avg

6,249 Sunday Ridership Avg

8,157 Saturday Ridership Avg

CATs Overall Ridership: Up 9.4 percent in month of January opposed to January 2007.

There hasn't been too much going on in the month of January, so hopefully the upcoming months with the ACC tourny and summer months ahead that these numbers will pick back up. Regardless, we are well ahead of the 9,100 ridership number that was originally estimated.

[atlrvr]

Anywho... the new experience was a group of about 4 young German parents with their kids....speaking German. To my surprise when I got off at Bland St in the seats 2 rows behind me was one of the parents changing their kids diper. They had the kid laid out in the seat while they stood in the aisle doing their work changing the diper. It was not very crowded on the train...but lets just say I was really glad to be getting off the train.

Anyone else had this happen on the Lynx line?

What, ride with Germans? No, but it's a good sign of Charlotte's growing international economy....hopefully it will become a regular encounter

[tozmervo]

I'm frankly a little surprised at the weekday numbers (though not the weekend). The rush hour trains seem as busy as they've ever been. Perhaps mid-day ridership slacked off a bit?

[Charlotte_native]

I'm frankly a little surprised at the weekday numbers (though not the weekend). The rush hour trains seem as busy as they've ever been. Perhaps mid-day ridership slacked off a bit?

If they are using averages think of how many days in January are holidays or days that many people don't work. Also how many days are cold or crappy. I know that i do less in January in general that probably any other month of the year. I think we'll see ups and downs for various months for many reasons. It will be most interesting to see when spring rolls around.

[monsoon]

... Regardless, we are well ahead of the 9,100 ridership number that was originally estimated.

Actually those numbers average out to 10,579 daily ridership or rather about 1,500 more than original estimates. (but trending down) As I said before, I don't think we will have a true feel for how the trains are doing until the first 6 months are up.

I think that CATS is really hurt by the long lead times on trains during the weekends and outside of rush hour and I think their fare structure is out of whack for what they are offering. The fares they offer may in fact be limited by the TVMs they decided to go with.

[Andyc545]

Actually those numbers average out to 10,579 daily ridership or rather about 1,500 more than original estimates. (but trending down) As I said before, I don't think we will have a true feel for how the trains are doing until the first 6 months are up.

I think that CATS is really hurt by the long lead times on trains during the weekends and outside of rush hour and I think their fare structure is out of whack for what they are offering. The fares they offer may in fact be limited by the TVMs they decided to go with.

Certainly they are scared by their underperforming ticketing systems as well as the kinks of running the trains on schedule and with the bus transfers, although those issues were to be expected in the beginning months. I still don't think we are going to see much in a downward spiralling trend, of course this is all estimating by all of us. January would be the month that I'd expect to see with the lowest ridership. Must of the ridership is going to be based off of non-commuting riders, so Panthers games, concerts, and other venues in uptown and at the arena/stadium are what contribute many extra riders. January was a slow month for this, also had a few crappy days, as mentioned where it actually snowed canceling or delaying a lot of activities. The numbers didn't surprise me at all, and I predict that once spring hits, that the trend will pick up and start spiralling up through the summer. Epicenter is going to give a lot in ridership numbers, as well as the NCAA tourny's and other events that are promising in the arena coming up, including a sold out monster jam. NASCAR is swinging around now, so we will begin to see all of those festivities that flood our streets coming up soon, as well as the other summer festivals that usually contribute to a large population of people that usually don't go uptown.

It still has some time, but just imagine all of the TOD projects that will be opening where people are actually paying the premium to live on the rail... A year or two from now, these numbers are going to surge even greater, to where I think there will be a demand to increase travel times as well as upgrading singles to doubles trains.

Edited February 19, 2008 by Andyc545

[monsoon]

^One would hope as the Feds approved the train based on a daily rider ridership close to 19,000. We are quite some ways from that number.