Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[nyxmike]

This isn't the best time given the economy, but they should look at increasing the transit sales tax. Given the overwhelming support for the transit tax last November it might have a chance at passing. Other cities have done this in order to raise more money to expand their transit lines.

[southslider]

Charlotte will be getting in line with every other city in the country for this money...

While every city desires an expansive rail transit system, Charlotte would still be a leader in its momentum and stream of local funding. In terms of light rail, only Seattle, Denver and Dallas come to mind as cities in a better position than Charlotte. Charlotte is more on equal footing with the likes of Minneapolis, Houston and Phoenix, still an ambitious class. Some cities have recently shot themselves in the foot by actually voting down local taxes for their systems (levy and expansion for St. Louis, new stream and starter-line for KC). Others don't have the growth or clout to aggressively move beyond their committed starter-line (Norfolk, Honolulu), are stuck with only streetcars (Milwaukee, Cincy, Tampa), or still struggle to see their first line (Raleigh, Detroit).

In other words, it's not an equal race, and though Charlotte may not be at the very front of the pack, it's still well ahead most.

[Andyc545]

CATS and The Observer have finally gotten around to admitting what I posted here months ago. There is no money to build the additional transit lines despite this promise being made by CATS, the city and the the downtown business interests during the campaign to save the tax.

Let's be fair here and analyze the reason why, which is out of CATs control... the reason is that the half cent tax isn't bringing in as much anticipated dough. Why? Because we are in a recession; people can't afford to buy their taxed items so our transit system gets the tail end of the deal. I'd imagine that when the economy swings back to what it was like when the system opened in Charlotte, that more people will spend money and the transit system will again benefit. Although, the Obama proposal is a seperate issue, there has been a constant flow of talk with politicians about this daily and it seems to be an ambitious proposal, following FDR's New Deal. The latest figure that I believe I heard today on CNN was something like 60 billion dollars dedicated for mass transit in the US, and it's said that this is one of the first things that Obama wants to take care of (including roads, utilities, public works) when he takes office. Will everything pan out with Obama's plan, I don't know. I just know that over the past 20+ years politicians have been promising an emphasis on remodeling America's energy and having a combat towards global warming, and have all failed to do anything. Obama's ambition and seriousness to this all has been the most promising, so I'm optimistic to think that much of his plans in regards of this matter will pan out.

[QueenCityLegend]

Let's be fair here and analyze the reason why, which is out of CATs control... the reason is that the half cent tax isn't bringing in as much anticipated dough. Why? Because we are in a recession; people can't afford to buy their taxed items so our transit system gets the tail end of the deal. I'd imagine that when the economy swings back to what it was like when the system opened in Charlotte, that more people will spend money and the transit system will again benefit. Although, the Obama proposal is a seperate issue, there has been a constant flow of talk with politicians about this daily and it seems to be an ambitious proposal, following FDR's New Deal. The latest figure that I believe I heard today on CNN was something like 60 billion dollars dedicated for mass transit in the US, and it's said that this is one of the first things that Obama wants to take care of (including roads, utilities, public works) when he takes office. Will everything pan out with Obama's plan, I don't know. I just know that over the past 20+ years politicians have been promising an emphasis on remodeling America's energy and having a combat towards global warming, and have all failed to do anything. Obama's ambition and seriousness to this all has been the most promising, so I'm optimistic to think that much of his plans in regards of this matter will pan out.

I really wish people(and the mainstream media) would stop comparing Obama New Deal to FDR's new deal. What most people dont realize is that back then, we(the government) had available lines of credit to fund these projects. Today, we're basically maxed out. And even if China(or some other country) is dumb enough to lend us the money(that wont be payed back, just like the rest of our debt) it's going to make the forecoming depression much worse. It's one thing to have a depression but its another to have a depression with Hyperinflation(which will happen due to all this money being created out of thin air and pumped into our economy). The only thing the stimulus package is going to "stimulate" is our debt.

Hold to on to your hats(and your houses, and your guns if you have them)!

Edited December 6, 2008 by QueenCityLegend

[Miesian Corners]

Hold to on to your hats(and your houses, and your guns if you have them)!

What good will it do me to do either? Protect my "valuables" that have no value in a post apocalyptic scenario?

There is still money to go around. It's just that it's being spent currently in a place we have no business in: Iraq.

[MZT]

I wondered if this thread had lit up again. We're inching ever closer to the moderator's prediction of a billion dollars.

As for the fare-skippers, I have seen two inspectors get on a train at once and check from both ends. Sometimes they get on at 7th street and wait until Stonewall to begin.

CATS probably isn't worried about people getting free rides between Stonewall and Seventh. After all, the Gold Rush is free inside 277, (and weren't the regular busses free inside it for a time?)

Edited December 6, 2008 by MZT

[Charlotte_native]

I really wish people(and the mainstream media) would stop comparing Obama New Deal to FDR's new deal.

I think what people are comparing aren't the specifics, but the concept. In a major, closing in on catastrophic, meltdown, the government is proactively looking at ways to try and bolster the economy and part of it might be spending on infrastructure -- injecting money (borrowed, printed out of air, or whatever) and creating jobs for the now abundant labor pool. Obviously there are big differences from FDR to BHO, but this could be an opportunity to work on national and local projects that have been shelved or slow moving for years. Not trying to say anyone is sure this will happen, but that is the conversation that is going on and those were some general proposals during the election cycle.

For me I'd sure rather see the gubment spend $700 billion on national projects, local mass transit, and other scenarios where we the people actually 'get' something for our money over throwing it to big business to bail them out. Like the New Deal in modern times, how many schools, transit lines, roads, bridges, etc could we be working on with the money that Wall Street and the auto companies are receiving?

Edited December 6, 2008 by Charlotte_native

[monsoon]

....

In other words, it's not an equal race, and though Charlotte may not be at the very front of the pack, it's still well ahead most.

I don't see how you could possibly say that. When it comes to handouts from the federal government, with the idea of creating growth and jobs, Charlotte is in no better position than any other city its size wanting the same cash. And, as I mentioned above, out Mayor tied his political wagon to GW Bush and that strategy has crashed and burned. You can still see the smoke from miles away. In other words, from a pure political perspective, we are worse off than many places.

If we go with your premise that CATS was so successful with building one LRT that it would be ahead of cities that have not built one, I will point out that CATS mismanaged the project so badly that a very rare congressional review was triggered. The end result was a very unhappy FTA gave CATS the dunning demand that if CATS did not finish Lynx by the end of 2007 they would have to pay back the federal government. It's not exactly a golden star they can take back up there and say "oh we should be first in line".

[uptownliving]

I don't see how you could possibly say that. When it comes to handouts from the federal government, with the idea of creating growth and jobs, Charlotte is in no better position than any other city its size wanting the same cash. And, as I mentioned above, out Mayor tied his political wagon to GW Bush and that strategy has crashed and burned. You can still see the smoke from miles away. In other words, from a pure political perspective, we are worse off than many places.

If we go with your premise that CATS was so successful with building one LRT that it would be ahead of cities that have not built one, I will point out that CATS mismanaged the project so badly that a very rare congressional review was triggered. The end result was a very unhappy FTA gave CATS the dunning demand that if CATS did not finish Lynx by the end of 2007 they would have to pay back the federal government. It's not exactly a golden star they can take back up there and say "oh we should be first in line".

Couple of things that i'm sure you already know but chose to ignore in your analysis:

#1 The Mayor is not Charlotte's only political representative. Our City Council is majority Democrat and all of them supported Obama.

#2 We have senior Democratic Congressional members Mel Watt and Spratt (Chairman of the Budget Cmte) who both support more Fed money for CATS.

#3 The FTA does look at LYNX and CATS as a succuss...you probably saw where they put the LYNX on the cover of their annual New Starts Report.

[monsoon]

^Maybe that is on the cover because it was the last system completed under the Bush administration. I suppose we will see then how many hundreds of millions comes pouring into CATS from the federal government for the fine job they are doing and the national political power of the individuals that make up the Charlotte city council. I didn't ignore the democrats on the city council. I am assuming they are all for federal jobs works programs along with all the GOPers on there also.

The point was that every other city in this country that will be eyeballing that money will be making the same arguments, and they will be coming in many cases, from a much better need position.

The real issue, stated above, is that CATS promised to build the system if the transit tax was preserved. And now they are admitting that isn't the case.

[Charlotte_native]

So this thread will now go back to debating how terrible or how great CATS is. At least we can all see that the LYNX line has more riders sooner than ever anticipated and we did vote to keep the transit tax. Not only that, development along the line is still moving forward despite the tought times -- maybe not condos, but apartments and commercial construction are steaming along between uptown and Scaleybark. Those are nice positives and likely won't go unnoticed by those who give an unbiased look at the overall LYNX picture (feds).

As someone pointed out above, the economy has changed dramatically since last year when this debate was in high-gear. No doubt that revenue from the sales tax is down, sales across the country are flat. Combine that with fluctuating and higher fuel and energy prices. I'm no CATS supporter or detractor, just looking at a system that started just a year ago in what is arguably the worst financial crisis of recent decades.

Everyone can debate whether CATS will or won't get federal funding in the upcoming administration, but like many arguments on here, no one knows and it is all guessing and speculation at this time. Like it or not we'll all just have to wait and see. I'm going to be an optimist (setting myself up for an arrow with that one) and say the administration will live up to its promises of infrastructure work and support of mass transit. Especially since our VEEP was a consistent user of mass transit for years and would likely see its many benefits.

Edited December 6, 2008 by Charlotte_native

[uptownliving]

The real issue, stated above, is that CATS promised to build the system if the transit tax was preserved. And now they are admitting that isn't the case.

CATS never promised anything. They have been very upfront in saying that these plans are all estimates. Obviously you missed that because you continue to repeat this supposed "promise" that never took place. The real issue is that CATS is having to adjust to the current economic environment by making cuts in the Bus operation.

[MZT]

Honestly I see most of this as a wash. CATS stumbled out of the gate, but so do a lot of large infrastructure projects. We haven't bet set back deeply. The Federal agencies will be seeing new appointments over the next 4 years and some of the bitter taste will recede.

Obama campaigned in Charlotte personally and won N.C. by a narrow margin. Yes there will be more competition for whatever Washington can offer, but I don't see our region as one that will be brushed aside easily.

Edited December 6, 2008 by MZT

[monsoon]

....Yes there will be more competition for whatever Washington can offer, but I don't see our region as one that will be brushed aside easily.

I never said that. I said that the predictions that CATS could never build this system with the transit tax, even though that was given as the reason for keeping it in place, have come true. That was brushed aside with "oh it doesn't really matter, we expected them to screw up, now Obama is gonna save the plans by writing a big fat check to Charlotte". That is the part I am commenting on. In the scheme of things, $60B really doesn't build much transit either and since it is being billed as a put people to work program, that money is going to be spread across the USA.

The point of the matter, and this was my original contention all along, is that as long as CATS is not held accountable for doing what they say, then don't expect any more of this transit system to be built without significant new sources of local funding. They are consuming the entire transit tax, in fact it barely covers 50% of their yearly expenses now, on operations so there is none left to build new transit lines. What the people voted in, and this is why I was against it, and then only because of the misrepresentation, was a tax to fund CATS operations, not a tax to build new transit lines. In a time when 100s of thousands are being laid off every month in this country, CATS submits a budget to increase their funding yet again next year. We have been done a big injustice, because now the 2030 plan is essentially dead. There is no source of funding for it. It's been spent.

It's a perfect scam. Try to cut their budget and hold them accountable and the next sound you will hear is "Oh, but we won't be able to build the trains".

[uptownliving]

They are consuming the entire transit tax, in fact it barely covers 50% of their yearly expenses now, on operations so there is none left to build new transit lines. What the people voted in, and this is why I was against it, and then only because of the misrepresentation, was a tax to fund CATS operations, not a tax to build new transit lines. In a time when 100s of thousands are being laid off every month in this country, CATS submits a budget to increase their funding yet again next year. We have been done a big injustice, because now the 2030 plan is essentially dead. There is no source of funding for it. It's been spent.

It's a perfect scam. Try to cut their budget and hold them accountable and the next sound you will hear is "Oh, but we won't be able to build the trains".

If what you said was true then I would be as upset as you, but it is not true.

Out of the $70M or so that CATS will collect in FY2009 from the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax $25M will be set aside into the Capitol Fund to be used for Future Expansion of the Rail system. So when you said that there is no money left to build new transit lines you are 100% incorrect. The reality is that the Capitol Fund for CATS has close to $150M in that account.

CATS is planning to reduce the 2nd Half of FY2009 Bus Operations budget to insure that all of that $25M goes into the Capitol Fund. Reductions to the schedule will be showing up in February 2009.

Now the real question is going to be...what Bus Routes should CATS cut?

[southslider]

Charlotte is in no better position than any other city its size wanting the same cash.

Except it takes money to make money, or in this case, local cash leverages federal cash, even if less local match is now expected. With this downturn, everyone's revenue forecasts have taken a hit, but Charlotte is in a lot better shape than most metros. Do you think the Feds will give to those metros expecting zero local match (or unable to afford matching funds)? Even if it's back to the twenty-percent non-federal match enjoyed by highways, Charlotte is among the strongest in fiscal capacity to pay for big-ticket projects. Since CATS was already expecting to pay closer to 50/50, you can imagine Charlotte easily affording an 80/20 "gift" despite slow-growing tax receipts and inflated construction.

[sax184]

CATS is not in a position markedly different from other transit agencies these days. Many of the larger agencies (WMATA, NYC MTA) are having serious problems with the lend-leaseback financing of railcars they did because of the near-collapse of AIG. Diesel fuel has just retreated from an unprecedented run and operating budgets have come in far over expectations for most of 2008. Concrete and steel have seen tremendous increases over the last several years due to the building boom in China, India, Dubai, etc.

At the same time, the sales tax is quite vulnerable to swings in economic activity. The Dow was at 13,625 on Dec 7, 2007, and it is now stumbling around between 8000 and 9000. Of course the sales tax looks much weaker going forward today than it did one year ago.

From a financial perspective, the world is shifting under everyone's feet, not just CATS. Conditions have changed, and so should assumptions about the future. To say that we should evaluate the prognosis of CATS' financial outlook from the point of view of last fall's fiscal conditions today is simply not a functional way to make decisions.

We may be about to experience some deflation in costs of construction since the industry has ground to a halt and many contractors are desperate for work, not wanting to lay off their staffs. To the extent that the slowdown eventually catches up with China, the cost of projects here may also improve for concrete and steel. At the same time, we can expect borrowing to be more difficult broadly, but potentially encouraged for transit infrastructure at the federal level. If banks are looking for somebody reliable to lend to, they may provide compelling rates to transit agencies backed by federal spending programs.

The line is open. Many critics said CATS was building a failed system that may not even reach 9100 riders a day. The line is considered a rousing success by virtually everyone at the local, state, and federal level who does not work for the JLF.

Examining bus service levels should be fair game at this point- CATS has some extremely high levels of service, and is bound to have some areas of lower productivity that could stand a rightsizing of headways. The question of the contribution of collar counties to CATS operations should also be considered. Are Union, Gaston, etc., contributing enough for the express services they receive?

[monsoon]

... Since CATS was already expecting to pay closer to 50/50, you can imagine Charlotte easily affording an 80/20 "gift" despite slow-growing tax receipts and inflated construction.

Maybe you have not been reading this topic or the news. CATS has already gone to a 80% plan. That means 80% comes from somewhere else and the local 20% comes from some place other than the transit tax. In other words, the assumptions put forth in the 2030 plan are dead.

They have been dead for a long time, but CATS has finally admitted to it. The towns in the North will not agree to being taxed further to build the north line, and the NE line costs are going to be much much higher than they said it would be. I predicted $1B a year ago and a slippage of at least 5 years. Guess where CATs is now with this line?

[monsoon]

.....The line is considered a rousing success by virtually everyone at the local, state, and federal level who does not work for the JLF. .....

CATS wasted $100M building this line and was 2 years late getting it running. The issue isn't the need to build light rail or it's purpose on doing so, I don't know why that is so difficult to understand. The issue is CATS accountability in getting light rail built and the plans they put forth that never come to light without a lot of grief. It's amazing how often the first item is used to mask the failures of the second item. CATS has done this repeatedly and now, like the financial crisis, the jig is up. They don't have a viable plan to build the rest of the rail lines proposed for this city.

[gman430]

I agree with Monsoon. Yeah, Charlotte might have a better local match and be better off financially than most major cities in the country but that doesn't matter when it comes to our useless federal government. There will be lobbyists left and right asking for that money to go elsewhere which it probably will unfortunately. Oh and opening the light rail line two years late while wasting $100 million at it doesn't help the situation either.

[uptownliving]

The FTA doesn't think that CATS wasted $100M on the Lynx line and thats why they still hold them in high regard as a transit agency. Thats also why they are in a good position politically on the National, State, and Local level. If everything that monsoon has said about CATS were actually true then CATS would be in the doghouse.

[monsoon]

^They are in the dog house. Again I say the proof is in the pudding. They should be buying land, hiring construction firms and buying material now to start building the North Line and NE line. It's not even on the horizon.

[uptownliving]

^They are in the dog house. Again I say the proof is in the pudding. They should be buying land, hiring construction firms and buying material now to start building the North Line and NE line. It's not even on the horizon.

If CATS took your advice and went ahead and started construction now...before the engineering work is complete and financing is lined up... it would only set them up for failure down the road. It is putting the cart before the horse. Not to mention just plain stupid since what money they spend now on construction would not be reimbursed by the Feds in the future if they do end up qualifiying for an FFGA on the NorthEast line.

[Spartan]

No, no, no. You have to plan the thing and get some basic design out of the way before you know how much Right of Way to buy. Things like finalizing the alignment, finalizing station locations, deciding how to reconfigure the street network so that it will work with the LRT effectively and vice-versa. Its not a simple process. If they went ahead with purchasing ROW and buying materials without knowing where the thing will actually go then there would be much more hell to pay with the taxpayers and engineers when they have all of this excess land and left over materials. THATS when people would raise hell for bad planning.

[monsoon]

haha. The 2025 plan for these systems had engineering complete by now. The original transit plan had the North line running by now. When the next plan comes out engineering complete by 2010. Maybe you guys just don't get it. It's the perfect scam. Just release a new plan each year that move all the dates out and act like it has always been this way. Lot's of people it seems, buy this every time.