Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[JBGB]

haha. The 2025 plan for these systems had engineering complete by now. The original transit plan had the North line running by now. When the next plan comes out engineering complete by 2010. Maybe you guys just don't get it. It's the perfect scam. Just release a new plan each year that move all the dates out and act like it has always been this way. Lot's of people it seems, buy this every time.

Totally agree. They should call it the 20?? Transit Plan. Then they could do it forever and everyone would be cool with it.

[dubone]

Planners could not have reasonably predicted the exponential rise in costs for construction materials related the the boom that helped create our current economic shock. The inflationary component to the Lynx line was the 'wasted' part, but that part wasn't the fault of CATS. The other parts were adding new features like bridges that added value to the line.

I do wish there were some things they could be doing to get some of the money spent now to avoid inflation. But frankly, for land and construction materials, and possibly even construction labor, we are likely in a period of deflation where those fast run ups in the past few years are rolled back like happened with gas. So we may actually have more purchasing power in two years.

It's not a scam, it is a 'plan'. As with any plan, they use various assumptions and reveal those assumptions to their leadership and the public. When the global and local economies cause inflation beyond those assumptions and revenues beneath those assumptions, and you couple that with specific changes that come about during engineering, the plans for the new future must change. No one can fully predict the future. You can attempt to plan for it by being as reasonable as possible based on the past, but I think everyone now realizes that the past few years and the current year especially are not anything like what an agency can reasonably plan for.

The same has happened with roads, as the DOT has had to push lots of roads out to the future as costs escalated far beyond expectation. Perhaps we'll all be pleasantly surprised in a few years when the deflation allows them to come way under budget in the next few years.

I love how a well regarded agency can be accused to be corrupt while we still have a thread extolling the virtues of a man who is now disgraced. It borders on comedy.

[uptownliving]

CATS will be holding the next round of Public Meetings in January where they will discuss their decision on the Sugar Creek/NCRR alignment. My guess is they will pick the NCRR alignment.

The same information will be presented at both meetings. Meetings are held from 6:00 - 8:00 PM.

January 13, 2009

Sugaw Creek Presbyterian Church

101 W Sugar Creek Rd

Charlotte, NC

January 15, 2009

Oasis Shriners Center

604 Doug Mayes Place

Charlotte, NC

[dubone]

I may have forgotten to post this, but CATS will choose the NCRR alignment, but the city has put in their Capital Plan to cover the $24m to move the line to the Sugar Creek alignment. My guess is that they will continue to do whatever engineering is necessary to allow the city to do that.

I think the city views the main economic boost to the area as just buying and tearing down some of the junk commercial on that strip of N Tryon. I don't think the station location being behind Asian Mall will be that dramatic of an impact on the area over having the station under (or is it over) the planned Sugar Creek Rd bridge. I suspect that Asian Mall will still be redeveloped as TOD even with the LRT adjacent rather than incorporated in the site.

I just hope that the Sugar Creek alignment won't slow down the timing of running the Lynx end to end. It seems like that is a risk.

[monsoon]

.....The inflationary component to the Lynx line was the 'wasted' part, but that part wasn't the fault of CATS. The other parts were adding new features like bridges that added value to the line......

The wasted part was building 11 ft tall boiler rooms to hold 11.5 ft boilers. The wasted part was scheduling the ticket vending machines to install ticket machines on platforms that were not built yet. The wasted part was having to go back and rebuild the 485 parking deck because of structural defects. The list goes on and on. I am constantly amazed how much of this gets forgotten and CATS continues to get a free pass on its terrible mis-management. If they were running a private company they would have long since been put out of business or asking for a bailout. Oh wait.... they are asking for a bailout. More taxes to build something that we are already paying taxes for.

Well.... maybe I shouldn't be surprised. It's the reason there is no plan nor schedule nor date to have any of the work completed. Work they said would be completed if we just gave them a 2nd chance by voting for the tax again. We were lied to. When the transit tax was passed in 1998 we were told the North line would be running no later than 2003. Here it is 2008 and it is still a dream. Yet in that period, we have laid out $650M in transit tax receipts. We've been robbed.

[uptownliving]

The wasted part was building 11 ft tall boiler rooms to hold 11.5 ft boilers. The wasted part was scheduling the ticket vending machines to install ticket machines on platforms that were not built yet. The wasted part was having to go back and rebuild the 485 parking deck because of structural defects. The list goes on and on. I am constantly amazed how much of this gets forgotten and CATS continues to get a free pass on its terrible mis-management.

Your revisionist history is getting really old. None of the things you listed actually got built...they were designed...CATS caught the design errors and they were corrected before anything was actually built. CATS got tired of Parson's continuous design errors and so they fired them and hired STV to come in ,correct Parson's mistakes and finish out the South line.

Guess who got the Design contract for the NE Line? Not Parsons.... STV got the contract. So go tell Parsons that CATS "forgot" about their shoddy engineering.

...and rebuilding the 485 deck?? I love how you just make stuff up to fit your argument.. LOL.

[Neo]

Guess who got the Design contract for the NE Line? Not Parsons.... STV got the contract. So go tell Parsons that CATS "forgot" about their shoddy engineering.

...and rebuilding the 485 deck?? I love how you just make stuff up to fit your argument.. LOL.

CATS has certainly learned from their mistakes by not going with Parsons a second time. This says to me that CATS is serious about the quality of the end result.

Placing blame solely on CATS for higher than projected cost is like going to a car dealership and accusing them directly of increasing the cost of the vehicle...regardless of the fact that prices for components of the car went up for the manufacturer.

I'm curious when the I-485 parking deck was rebuilt...I must have been on a long vacation when this took place.

[monsoon]

Revisionist? Time Frame? Start with this post. Note that I did not make it.

Thanks for the photos. This is getting very exciting.

It was on the local news today that CATS has fired Parsons for major design flaws that are leading to much higher costs. This is big news, as Parsons is a major designer of transit projects. Apparently, CATS won't reveal the specifics of the design flaws. I wonder if it is related to the soil problems at the parking deck.

I wonder if this is a play to get the feds to help us with the extra cost overruns.

On the car analogy, if the dealer came back to me after I had a signed contract paid a deposit and said, oh we want 33% more. Nobody would take that no matter what the excuse. The dealer is being paid to acquire a product from a manufacturer and deliver it to you at an agreed to cost.

[uptownliving]

Revisionist? Time Frame? Start with this post. Note that I did not make it.

Yes, revisionist, you said they had to rebuild the 485 deck....which never happened. What happened is that soil problems were discovered BEFORE the actual deck was built. It is quite common around here to have soil problems at construction sites....either it is rock in the ground you were not expecting...or the soil needs to be firmed up so that the structure to be built doesn't have foundation problems.

[Spartan]

Planning is not an exact science, unlike other fields like engineering or architecture that rely on figures and precise calculations. Planners make plans using the best data available, but nobody can guarantee that everything will turn out exactly as planned. Politics, for one, impacts city planning on a daily basis and can literally derail plans from ever happening (no pun intended). The public input process also impacts plans in more ways than most people realize. Remember the Pineville Station that got scrapped? Nobody planned for that to get axed.

Why is there not more outrage at NCDOT's delays and busted budget for 485? Its the exact same thing. Does anyone know the original completion date for I-485? The whole loop, not just the most recent leg? The answer is 2008. Thats right. And now NCDOT's best guess is 2013 to start construction on the last leg (for which they haven't even started acquiring rights of way yet). Where's the outrage? Because its for cars, people don't get upset over that one. Irritated? Yes. But brushing it off as expected incompetence is no excuse. The facts are that things don't always go according to plan, and sometimes things will take longer than expected.

When plans go off without a hitch, it rarely gets noticed.

[Charlotte_native]

Why is there not more outrage at NCDOT's delays and busted budget for 485? Its the exact same thing. Does anyone know the original completion date for I-485? The whole loop, not just the most recent leg? The answer is 2008. Thats right. And now NCDOT's best guess is 2013 to start construction on the last leg (for which they haven't even started acquiring rights of way yet). Where's the outrage? Because its for cars, people don't get upset over that one. Irritated? Yes. But brushing it off as expected incompetence is no excuse. The facts are that things don't always go according to plan, and sometimes things will take longer than expected.

this has always been a big question of mine. Many times during the debate about the transit tax I posed this question and others. One was why all the personal animosity towards Ron Tober -- anyone know the lead guy's name for 485 off the top of their head? Any road project for that matter? Not saying mistakes are OK, but how about holding them all to the same standard? Road = good, choo-choo = bad.

Building or remodeling a house is not a precise science and budgets are something that are rarely hit with complete accuracy. Jump to the size and scale of this...expecting everything to be perfect is absurd. Now combine in being attacked during most of the process, professionally and personally, having the economy showing signs of problems, having material costs rise greatly...

As stated plenty of times -- I'll take the picture as a whole. Instead of trying to find every issue I can with the project and framing it and shining a spotlight on it, I'll compare the problems and the positives because there are examples of both. As an overall project moving us even just a couple inches towards useful mass transit...success. Other than budget (and so many public projects are always right on budget, right?) and having a couple outside companies that seem to have done sub-par work, the projected construction along the line is further along faster than expected -- this during a horrible economy, the ridership numbers exceeding projects by years, and overall daily problems minimal...still success. Measure it by the income of a sales tax in a year when the stock market, economy, and jobs fall so sales dissipate...still nothing that every sector of business and government isn't dealing -- loss of revenue.

[monsoon]

.... One was why all the personal animosity towards Ron Tober -- anyone know the lead guy's name for 485 off the top of their head? .......

Tober was responsible for 1 $298B 2 - year construction project which he overran costs by 56%. That is 56% and he and he was 100% over his time budget. I would put forth two things. First that most people in Charlotte could not tell you Tober's name and certainly most in the state would be able to tell you his name.

Second to compare that project to something as large as the NCDOT, which does everything from running auto ferries in the outer banks to keeping roads free of ice in the mountains this time of year (and they do an excellent job) to building an maintaining 1000s of miles of roads in this state, is like comparing a fly to an elephant. Maybe most people in downtown Charlotte don't know if but you can drive to Ocracoke island which is 30+ miles out in the Atlantic by not 1 but two different routes. A remarkable set of infrastructure if you ask me. Many many times I have gone skiing in the Banner Elk area and been very glad at how efficient the NCDOT is in maintaining those roads in very hostile conditions. The NCDOT is also one of the very few agencies to run its own passenger rail service. Service that gives Charlotte daily rail connections, at convenient times, to the Triad, Triangle, to DC and NYC. If we were to rely solely on Amtrak, Charlotte would only have trains coming through just a couple of times in the middle of the night. Thank goodness for the NCDOT.

For the job they are charged with, the NCDOT is light years ahead of the mess that Tober made of CATS during his tenure there and of the mess he made in Ohio on the transit system he ran there previously. If the NCDOT actually operated with the results from the LYNX project, there would be lynchings in Raleigh of those responsible. The myopia that some have in Charlotte towards the NCDOT's daily results and importance to the city, an importance that is far far greater than a light rail line that carries 16K people/day, is simply fascinating.

Finally nobody here has attacked Tober on a personal level.

[Spartan]

So because they are so much larger, NCDOT should not be held to the same standard when their projects go over budget and take longer than expected? Being at least 40% over budget- if not more- and at least 5 years behind schedule isn't exactly a good record to have for one project either.

Nobody ever said that the entire organization is useless. They are quite good at building their standard median-divided rural highways.

[monsoon]

I don't think anyone has said the NCDOT should not be held to high standards. If you can find that post here on UrbanPlanet then please point it out. What we get in this topic are constant posts, that dismiss CATS and Tober's failings with Lynx, because the NCDOT is not perfect. This is a topic about the rail line. If you notice, it isn't me that keeps bringing up the NCDOT, but what is being done. It is easy to pick a large extremely expensive complex projects, cherry picking, and then using that as a justification for how badly the Lynx project was handled.

I should point out that I-485 was never a single project. It is a set of multiple projects, that are funded by the NC Legislature who then gives the NCDOT the orders to move forward with it. There was never a booked single plan for finishing the entire project. Right now it is projected the I-85N to I-77N Project of the I-485 Plan, (like the 2030 Plan) will be started in in a few years. This is no different than saying the 2030 plan projects the NE Line to be finished in 2012. In that regard, CATS has already slipped it 3 years, and the project is just 2 years old. So I was say that even when compared to the I-485 Plan the NCDOT has a better track record than CATS.

And if you really want a good comparison, the North CR line was supposed to open in 2003 in time for the widening project of I-77N. It never happened. So if you guys set the NCDOT as a standard, and honestly look at what happened you will find that CATS does not even meet those standards.

[Spartan]

It is easy to pick a large extremely expensive complex projects, cherry picking, and then using that as a justification for how badly the [...] project was handled.

I agree 100%. I removed the word "Lynx" because we can substitute any project's name in there and it will still be a perfect statement.

There are multiple projects that went over time and/or budget that are part of their respective systems of transportation.

[monsoon]

^Maybe so, I wasn't replying to your post. However, CATS has had a record of being more than 100% over both time and cost wise on all their rail projects so I don't think the NCDOT has anything to worry about. And... right now, they have no plan for building the rest of the rail system. They could have built the North Line years ago when it was relatively inexpensive to do so. But because they hedged their bets to keep the options for the more news worthy NE line and delayed it with endless excuses and plans that required the property tax payers in the North to take on risk, neither line is going to be built. Yet we continue to be taxed for it.

[Norm2]

Monsoon, can you please give us examples of transit agencies in other cities where the built a train line "on time AND under/on budget"?

[monsoon]

Monsoon, can you please give us examples of transit agencies in other cities where the built a train line "on time AND under/on budget"?

I am sure that you can look this up on Google just as well as I can if you really want to know. I doubt that was the reason for your question. If what you are really saying is that "it is OK that CATS screws up constantly because other transit agencies do so.", then I don't accept that as an excuse. Let's again keep in mind that CATS overruns were so bad, that it triggered a congressional review. I believe that has only happened only two other times.

However, I will point out that our own NCDOT operates the The Piedmont and The Carolinian in the black. That is they make money on the operation. The do so by running an efficient operation which is remarkable given they don't control all the track.

[Neo]

I am sure that you can look this up on Google just as well as I can if you really want to know. I doubt that was the reason for your question. If what you are really saying is that "it is OK that CATS screws up constantly because other transit agencies do so.", then I don't accept that as an excuse. Let's again keep in mind that CATS overruns were so bad, that it triggered a congressional review. I believe that has only happened only two other times.

However, I will point out that our own NCDOT operates the The Piedmont and The Carolinian in the black. That is they make money on the operation. The do so by running an efficient operation which is remarkable given they don't control all the track.

I've done a little searching and I can't find a transit system that came in under budget or right on budget. Perhaps I'm searching in the wrong places or simply not searching long enough (shouldn't be hard to find if it exists considering the abundance of links to articles for hundreds of systems that have come in OVER budget).

It was in the news this past week that Norfolk's new light rail line has come in $55.9 billion OVER budget. That system has gone from $232.1M to $288M. The opening of the line has also been delayed by several months (sound familiar?).

You'll find this amusing:

"We did projections, and by that, I mean HRT and the city," Williams said. "They were our best estimate at the time. The actual numbers have turned out to be different.

I suppose they too have an inept official running their operation.

[rooster8]

So does anyone else think that with the combination of lower gas prices and increased headways will lead to decreased ridership?

[tozmervo]

You know, just this morning on my ride in, I was thinking about how surprising it is that ridership hasn't yet seen a major by-the-gallon fall off - at least from my perspective. My guess is that Nov/Dec numbers will show generally the same numbers that we've been seeing for the past few months, if not a small decline.

[dubone]

Reducing the headways must be a sign from CATS that they expect ridership to fall a bit. It would stand to reason. But nationally gas consumption has not risen much after the dramatic fall in prices, so I suspect it is similar here, where people are now realizing they're saving parking or saving time or saving sanity and just stick with transit. But some of course will still go back to driving.

It is hard to imagine that reducing service won't have an impact, though.

[Spartan]

I came across this link... Its a visual preference survey about development along the LRT line.

Note to fellow Mac users- it doesn't appear to work in Safari. Use Firefox.

Link

[Charlotte411]

^Maybe so, I wasn't replying to your post. However, CATS has had a record of being more than 100% over both time and cost wise on all their rail projects so I don't think the NCDOT has anything to worry about. And... right now, they have no plan for building the rest of the rail system. They could have built the North Line years ago when it was relatively inexpensive to do so. But because they hedged their bets to keep the options for the more news worthy NE line and delayed it with endless excuses and plans that required the property tax payers in the North to take on risk, neither line is going to be built. Yet we continue to be taxed for it.

Monsoon, I am new to posting here, but not new to watching. When I hear or see people comment on the failings of CATS and/or the City to bring rail transit to the North and Northeast Corridors in a more timely manner, it disappoints me that they don't see a larger picture. I'm not going to compare NCDOT to CATS, because I would agree that the two are apples and oranges. However, what I will say is that NCDOT's mission is to open the hose and push as many people back and forth as possilbe along a stretch of pavement (or water as you've pointed out). In comparison, what CATS and our City's Planning Dept. have absolutely done right is that they recognized in the late '90s, when they were planning a comprehensive mass transit system, that land-use planning was as important as the transporting of a rider from one end to the other. Rail transit foes would point to the fact that light rail does not pay for itself. I would say first that this is not the point. But, I would also say, that the statement is also false. Because we have married land-use planning with our transit plan, we have effectively catalyzed transit-oriented real estate development up and down our South Corridor. Anyone who believes the type of development we are seeing along the LYNX Blue Line comes automatically with light rail development would benefit from visiting other cities, which have built transit, and have struggled with creating the proper zoning to procure the types of projects that stand the test of time around their transit stations. It's probably also appropriate to point out that none of the currently constructed projects (or those under construction) along the South corridor have required public dollars in the way of public financing, bond issues or rebates of any sort to make them feasible. However, it is my hope that the City will consider TIF and TIF-like proposals in the future to create even more density around stations.

CATS has a plan to develop the entire rail, streetcar and BRT integrated system - it's called the 2030 Plan. Perhaps you mean they do not have a complete understanding of how it will be funded. If that's the point of your statement, ok. Although, I don't think there is much point in arguing it. With each new administration (we will see 4-7 new administrations by 2030 depending on re-elections), and each new Congress (even more by 2030), come different opportunities.

Ron Tober inept? - you lost me there. If you asked transit CEOs across the country, they would tell you exactly the opposite. Did you know that Ron Tober was inducted this fall into the North Carolina Transportation Hall of Fame? Here's a list of their current advisory board...

Ted Alman, NCDOT Aviation Division

Greg Dean, NC Concrete Pavement Association

Mary Meletiou, NCSU-ITRE

Miriam Perry, NCDOT Public Transportation Division

Pat Simmons, NCDOT Rail Division

It appears that several members of the organization, in which you place so much pride, feel largely the same way about Mr. Tober. There are approximately 40 inductees to the NCTHF. You may recognize a couple of them. If you live in NC, a picture of their plane is on your license plate.

Mr. Tober has been courted by several major metropolitan transit authorities and quasi-governmental transit entities like CATS to assist them, because of the successful development of the South Corridor. I'm sure that you read this week in the paper that Ron is leaving his post as director of Charlotte Trolley, to go back to Seattle to help them plan and organize an $18 billion dollar expansion of their transit system, for which they passed a sales tax during the November election. He is somewhat of a guru among transit officials across the country. You don't get that reputation without being competent and effective.

As to building the North line years ago, I'm not sure what your opinion is on how it could have been funded. That aside, there are 4 other municipalities (if you include Mooresville), all of which must cooperate to develop the project. Creating a land-use plan that is effective, protective, and addresses each community's own characteristics is a lengthy and challenging process. That having been completed, at least one town remains apprehensive about the value that rail transit will bring to their community.

Deciding on Northeast over North has less to do with popularity and more to do with ridership. I hope you would agree that obtaining federal dollars for either or both projects would be a welcome event. Very shortly after federal dollars were granted to build the South Corridor, those ridership requirements increased. Despite your politics, with the new administration, there are likely to be more dollars available for projects like the North & Northeast Corridors and the Streetcar Line, although I'm forming the opinion that the first dollars available to us will go to adding value to the existing South Corridor (longer platforms, trains, etc....).

Getting off-topic, now is the time to develop the main section of the Streetcar Line through Uptown Charlotte. It is far less expensive, the City owns all of the ROW it needs to do it, and there are private partners who would likely assist in the funding. Plus, we have the rolling stock available to begin operation tomorrow.

Edited December 17, 2008 by Charlotte411

[tozmervo]

A LYNX alert went out for this Sunday Morning, when service will temporarily end at Carson station and passengers will be shuttled the rest of the way. They cited the installation of a pedestrian bridge as the disruption north of Carson. I know one of the bridges at the new BofA Wintergarden is going up this weekend, but that wouldn't effect the LYNX - what else is going on?