Charlotte's Light Rail: Lynx Blue Line

[Neo]

OK, Your analogy would be valid except that Tober was directly asked what would happen if the tax revenues did not come to CATS projections. His response was that they had already taking all possible scenarios into consideration. That is if the people voted in this tax, it would be more than enough for CATS to build the trains. "Trust Us, we know what we are doing". It was a lie. It's another characteristic of not setting hard measurable goals for this transit agency with definite consequences if they are not met.

I can't find anywhere that Tober said "Trust us, we know what we are doing" in regards to fulfilling the transit corridor plan. I'm not saying it wasn't said, but I've failed to find anything similar to that from Tober's mouth.

The economy has fallen to a level that no one could have predicted thus I don't blame Tober if he did say they had enough to build out the plan. I am sure CATS had cushioned their projections for future sales tax revenue to account for a decline, but there is simply no way one could have known how amazingly dry the economy would be. Not even you can blame this on Tober or CATS as a whole.

[southslider]

CATS is not asking for a tax increase. The NC Legislature is considering enabling other metropolitan counties in the State (three in the Triangle and two in the Triad) to have similar funding options to Mecklenburg's half-cent sales tax, but the legislation excludes Mecklenburg County. Mecklenburg leaders are debating whether to push for enabling an additional half-cent, and what that should go for, namely roads, transit, or combination thereof.

Last night at Council, Mayor McCrory stated that he expects CATS to live within the original half-cent sales tax, and any added half-cent, even if for roads, should not go to voters during a recession.

As for keeping the political promises of the 2030 system plan, the North Corridor may very well get built next and within two years. However, CATS say they need to have more comparable levels of design work completed to fully assess the tradeoffs between North and Northeast, as local match will be difficult for both under current revenue forecasts.

However, I think North Towns could put pressure on MTC to not wait. One way is if the Towns would be more adamant about contributing additional local match, such as tax increment financing of station-area development. Plus, projects could be built for 20-30% below their estimates in the current climate of cheaper labor and materials. Combine more local revenue with lower project cost, and maybe you can squeeze by without State match, which is also in jeopardy these days.

I do think it is a mistake for MTC to delay North, when it is clearly shovel-ready. If revenues improve, you still would have compounded competition for the County sales tax, and you'd be hitting the State up for more money at the same time. If revenues don't improve, you can't afford the local match for Northeast anyway. Besides, Northeast is at least two years out from even applying for federal funding, so by then, the economy should have recovered. And if North ends up being creative with its debt-financing, more of the eventual rebound in County-wide revenue can go to Northeast.

Edited April 28, 2009 by southslider

[urban980]

Many of the arguments I see here against transit in Charlotte are very similar to the same arguments made by members of the John Locke Foundation (a Raleigh based conservative think tank). Any tax on any thing is evil to these folks and their followers (especially a tax for mass transit). Their biggest argument is 'not enough people are riding to justify the cost' so why build rail lines? The answer to that question is simple. I-485 has not shortened the drive time from Uptown to Pineville. Why? Because development follows roads. Development also follows rail lines, but with a slightly different outcome. The rail line will not get congested and be forced to slow down due to added development. That is why rail is now being built in Charlotte. We have learned that roads are not the cure all. In time, rail ridership in Charlotte will be far greater than it is today. It is very short sighted to look at today's ridership of an unfinished line segment and say let's stop this rail thing all together and go back to building more roads.

[uptownliving]

This isn't a plan to measure any results. It is a list of goals they CATS says it wants to meet. If they don't meet them, you will never see these goals again. If they do they will make a big deal about it. bleh. They didn't even meet some of the stuff you posted earlier. i.e. they moved the goal post again.

More significant to this project however, if you look at their passengers for revenue hour for the light rail system, you will see that it has dropped significantly for this year. We are talking about a close to 30% drop. Maybe this is the real reason they decided to stop counting passengers for ridership calculation purposes. Do they mention this in their high class glossy bullets? Absolutely not. They still talking about breaking their projection during their first year of operation despite this being a 2009 project.

It certainly is a plan to measure results. If CATS doesn't meet the metrics then they have to explain why and come up with a new plan to meet the metric.

Which ones have they not met? You never pointed that out. They have not moved the goal posts as these metrics have been in place for years.

CATS didn't stop counting passengers. This is a typical monsoon exageration. One of the automatic counters on one of the trains malfunctioned for part of the month and you construe that into "CATS stopped counting". What a joke. How can you expect people to take you seriously when you post junk like that on here?

And speaking of junk: A 30% drop in ridership for the LRT? Are you serious? 15% drop sure....but 30%?

[monsoon]

Many of the arguments I see here against transit in Charlotte are very similar to the same arguments made by members of the John Locke Foundation (a Raleigh based conservative think tank). .

I recommend that you read again if you think anyone here is against transit. The issue here isn't the building of transit. The issue here is CATS ability to deliver said transit at a reasonable cost with realistic plans that will actually get built. The issue here is also using transit to develop a sound urban development plan the city of Charlotte says it wants, but doesn't have the political nerve to implement.

Please don't come in here and equate what is being said to what has been said at the John Locke foundation. To be sure their criticisms of CATS hit a lot of the same nails but they do not believe, as far as I can tell, in building ANY transit. If you got that idea here, then you either have not been on this site long enough, or you were not looking. My motivation is in making sure the money we do have is well spent on plans that make sense. IMO, if you can't fund it, then it doesn't make sense.

I will point out BTW, the people at the JLF and other similar groups got a serious podium and a transit repeal effort in the election because of the incompetence at CATS, where they essentially wasted $100M on nothing. This was worsened by city's inability to do anything about it, nobody was held accountable to this money being wasted, and it got swept under the rug. You hear about this 9500 ridership number all the time. Never do you hear they were two years late delivering the project and wasted so much money due to incompetence on the Lynx project that Congress brought them up on a review.

If CATS continues with the kind of results they have been providing, then expect these people to come back. I said this when it happened the first time and I am saying it again now.

[monsoon]

CATS is not asking for a tax increase. The NC Legislature is considering enabling other metropolitan counties in the State (three in the Triangle and two in the Triad) to have similar funding options to Mecklenburg's half-cent sales tax, but the legislation excludes Mecklenburg County. Mecklenburg leaders are debating whether to push for enabling an additional half-cent, and what that should go for, namely roads, transit, or combination thereof......

Actually CATS has said that it can't build the 2030 Plan without a significant new source of funding. This is a public project so funding = more taxes (or borrowing). Of course this sets up the notion they are not responsible for executing the plan they first put forwards. Nothing new here.

[sax184]

Many of the points being discussed here are false choices. CATS will be able to deliver its entire program on the existing 1/2-cent sales tax, EVENTUALLY, unless the current plan eats the revenue stream completely through operational costs. I have yet to see any documentation that this is the case.

The sales tax was unusually robust for a few years, and now in a period of unprecedented economic tumult, it is weak. The viability of the 2030/2035/2040 plan is always going to be seen through the prism of the present health and future projections of the sales tax. If the economy were to recover and return to its form of say, 2004-2005, or the mid-1990s, we may find ourselves talking about new lines not in the present plan. Then assumptions may change again.

The real debate in Charlotte is fundamentally this:

"We know the sales tax has been weakened considerably because of the economy. Until the economy revives, we can follow a path that delivers fewer projects by the horizon date, and try to catch up by building more projects later if and when the sales tax recovers. Alternatively, we can raise new revenue to compensate for the weakness in the sales tax today to try to keep closer to the original schedule. What does Charlotte as a community, want to do?"

[monsoon]

Many of the points being discussed here are false choices. CATS will be able to deliver its entire program on the existing 1/2-cent sales tax, EVENTUALLY, unless the current plan eats the revenue stream completely through operational costs. I have yet to see any documentation that this is the case......

100% of the tax is devoted to their operational budget which isn't enough to fund just the operations. It has been presented here on UP so I assume you must have missed it. If you don't want to read it here, then you can look at it on the Char/Meck website. There are no false choices being presented.

[InitialD]

Actually CATS has said that it can't build the 2030 Plan without a significant new source of funding. This is a public project so funding = more taxes (or borrowing). Of course this sets up the notion they are not responsible for executing the plan they first put forwards. Nothing new here.

The problem that I find, though, is that the kooks like John Locke & CATO are saying "CATS lied! They said the 1/2 sales tax would be enough!" and unfortunately some people are gullible enough to buy that.

can

The problem is that the 1/2 cent sales tax is based on people spending money. I don't think you can make the case that CATS should have foreseen the global economic downturn at the time the 1/2 cent tax was passed. Of course the anti-transit nuts are blathering about "CATS is coming for even MORE money because they are evil!" Duh, 0.05 percent of a very large number is a large number, 0.05 percent of a much smaller number is a smaller number. They know the facts, but they choose to ignore them to push their agendas.

Side note; best way to get the CATO/John Locke dittoheads to shut up: tell them to do the logical thing and demand the government to cut from the largest slice of pie first - the military. If the U.S. cut $500,000,000,000 PER YEAR from the defense budget, we'd still outspend China more than two to one. Transit is only chump change in relation to military spending, so why even put so much focus on it?

[monsoon]

.....Transit is only chump change in relation to military spending, so why even put so much focus on it?

United States federal spending isn't a topic for this discussion. I am very interested in the $75M or so tax money that CATS collects every year from the transit tax and how it is used. I would think that all of us here are interested in that or this topic would not have so much activity. This is why there is a focus on it.

In regards to the JLF, CATS can silence them by their actions. They have not done this and invite criticism due to their continued inability to explain why we need to continue to spend billions on their plan when they are cutting back service. I don't want this topic however to turn into a JLF bash fest. If you want to argue with their position, then please either go to their website and do so or start a different topic here.

[uptownliving]

100% of the tax is devoted to their operational budget which isn't enough to fund just the operations. It has been presented here on UP so I assume you must have missed it. If you don't want to read it here, then you can look at it on the Char/Meck website. There are no false choices being presented.

Why do you keep propigating junk "facts"? This is the third one just today.

Take your own suggestion and go look at Char/Meck website and you will see that even in FY2009 CATS still contributed $18,686,960 from the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax to the Capital Fund. That $18M is nearly 30% of the $64M that CATS will collect from the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax in FY2009.

Source (Page 15):

http://www.charmeck.org/NR/rdonlyres/euaxn...22MTCagenda.pdf

[southslider]

Significant new funding does not automatically equate a tax increase. It could be intergovernmental funding, such as the federal stimulus more strongly eyed by the Yadkin River bridge. It could also be incremental increases in tax base retiring certificates of participation, such as synthetic tax increment financing of station area development. It could even be a fare increase.

CATS CEO Parker has never said they need a tax increase to keep the system plan moving. The timing of the NC bill for other counties to levy a half-cent for transit and CATS updating MTC on the North and Northeast corridors is bad timing that has led to too much speculation. But as recent City Council and County Commission discussions have shown, any tax increase is D.O.A.

[monsoon]

100% of the tax is devoted to their operational budget which isn't enough to fund just the operations. .....

From the report posted above with thanks to Uptownliving. You see I don't make these things up. If I did, maybe I could get a job at CATS. While CATS is complaining about the transit tax falling, its operating income continues to rise. And further down in that report you will also see they have a separate category for capital expenses. (which they mainly spend on bus related equipment and buildings) How can it be they can't afford to build trains if they continue to get more money each year yet cut service at the same time. Their numbers don't match their rhetoric.

You want some trains built? Then demand of the politicians they be held accountable to some real results. If the politicians don't listen or play the game, "oh you must be against transit", then vote them out.

[uptownliving]

From the report posted above with thanks to Uptownliving. You see I don't make these things up.

Actually you do just make this stuff up and you just did it again.

You only showed a small portion of the budget...go back and show us the FULL PAGE.

Once you do that you will see where under CAPITAL INCOME there is a line listed as "Contribution from Operations" $18,686,960. This is the >20% of the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax that CATS is required to put in the Capital Fund.

This is the way the MTC has had it setup since the begining in 1998 where the excess money from Operations will be put into the Capital Fund....it is how the South LRT line got built.

[Spartan]

Many of the points being discussed here are false choices. CATS will be able to deliver its entire program on the existing 1/2-cent sales tax, EVENTUALLY, unless the current plan eats the revenue stream completely through operational costs. I have yet to see any documentation that this is the case.

The sales tax was unusually robust for a few years, and now in a period of unprecedented economic tumult, it is weak. The viability of the 2030/2035/2040 plan is always going to be seen through the prism of the present health and future projections of the sales tax. If the economy were to recover and return to its form of say, 2004-2005, or the mid-1990s, we may find ourselves talking about new lines not in the present plan. Then assumptions may change again.

The real debate in Charlotte is fundamentally this:

"We know the sales tax has been weakened considerably because of the economy. Until the economy revives, we can follow a path that delivers fewer projects by the horizon date, and try to catch up by building more projects later if and when the sales tax recovers. Alternatively, we can raise new revenue to compensate for the weakness in the sales tax today to try to keep closer to the original schedule. What does Charlotte as a community, want to do?"

Well stated. That is the true question that we have before us as a community.

CATS is at fault for assuming constant income on an inconsistent revenue source. They should have put some money away for the "rainy day" fund. However, since they didn't, how should we move forward?

Personally, I will never support another tax increase for transit, at least not at the local level. This city has other transportation needs, and any tax increase should go to roads and other 'non-transit' modes. But there is a lot of political pressure to build out the transit plan sooner rather than later.

[monsoon]

I don't see how this changes anything that I said. 100% of the tax is devoted to their operating budget and it does not cover even 50% of the budget now. It's the Charlotte city council, not the MTC that approves CATS budget. You may also take note the city has reserved the right to veto any MTC decision on the matter as stated in the the earlier document that you posted.

There is no money being reserved for train building.

[uptownliving]

I don't see how this changes anything that I said. 100% of the tax is devoted to their operating budget and it does not cover even 50% of the budget now. It's the Charlotte city council, not the MTC that approves CATS budget. You may also take note the city has reserved the right to veto any MTC decision on the matter as stated in the the earlier document that you posted.

There is no money being reserved for train building.

LOL wow. What is really funny is that you are now contradicting yourself as you have posted in the past that the MTC does approve the budget. Now you reverse yourself.

Go back and look at the MTC agenda and you will see the Budget is an Action item requiring their approval. Go and look at the Inter-Local agreement between MTC, Charlotte, and Mecklenburg County and you will see that the MTC has to approve the budget before it goes to Charlotte and Meck Co.

The fact is that 30% of the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax in FY2009 went to the Capital Fund.

The fact is that CATS has been putting away money in the Capital Fund so that it can build trains in the future. CATS has said they can build either the North Line or the NorthEast Line next but that they can't build them at the same time.

[uptownliving]

CATS is at fault for assuming constant income on an inconsistent revenue source. They should have put some money away for the "rainy day" fund. However, since they didn't, how should we move forward?

CATS gets their financial projections from the Charlotte Budget Dept. For their long term (20 year) projections they do assume a constant increase for the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax somewhere around 3.5% annually...but for the 1 year and 2 year budget they dont assume a constant income for the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax. In fact for FY2010 they are projecting a lower intake for the 1/2 Cent Sales Tax than in FY 2009. The problem is that this time last year they were projecting a 4% increase in the Sals Tax for FY 2009 and instead it has decreased 15%. Obviously they were way off.

I think it was a mistake that they did not have an Operating Rainy Day fund and with their new budget that the MTC just approved they have started a rainy day fund and they will be putting $3.6M into that fund in FY2010.

Edited April 29, 2009 by uptownliving

[monsoon]

LOL wow. What is really funny is that you are now contradicting yourself as you have posted in the past that the MTC does approve the budget. Now you reverse yourself.....

Maybe you should take the time to read the documents you post. You didn't do it concerning the transit tax being devoted to the operational budget, so I had to post the relevant section above.

On this issue I said that the City of Charlotte has veto authority over the MTC on the budget and is responsible for appoving it, not the MTC. This is the from section V.d

"Mayor Tarte asked what role the City Council takes on the MTC. Mayor McCrory replied that the City Council approves all contracts and the overall budget. The MTC makes decisions on policy. Essentially, the Charlotte City Council has veto power; if they wanted to stop something the MTC did, they could."

It's written in English, I am fairly certain that your native language is English, so I don't understand the confusion on your part.

[uptownliving]

Maybe you should take the time to read the documents you post. You didn't do it concerning the transit tax being devoted to the operational budget, so I had to post the relevant section above.

Please explain to us where the $18M Contribution from Operations comes from in the CATS Capital Budget that was just approved by the MTC on April 22nd.

[urban980]

IMO, if you can't fund it, then it doesn't make sense.

This statement doesn't make much sense because it can apply to anything (ie college, health care, I-485). And since when did CATS say they can't fund rail?

[monsoon]

^Keith Parker is now the CEO of CATS. This week there following statements were made in front of the Mecklenburg county council and can be seen by doing a search on google news.

.... last week,

CATS officials said that it doesn't have enough money to build two train lines early next decade

.......

CATS chief executive Keith Parker said last week the only way both lines could be built simultaneously is if the commuter train receives federal stimulus money or if the economy rebounds and sales tax revenues surge.

He also said

[Neo]

^Keith Parker is now the CEO of CATS. This week there following statements were made in front of the Mecklenburg county council and can be seen by doing a search on google news.

.... last week,

CATS officials said that it doesn't have enough money to build two train lines early next decade

.......

CATS chief executive Keith Parker said last week the only way both lines could be built simultaneously is if the commuter train receives federal stimulus money or if the economy rebounds and sales tax revenues surge.

He also said "new revenues"

would help CATS, prompting discussion of a new half-cent sales tax for mass transit.

It should be noted that so far the 6 county commissioners in attendance have all gone on record saying they don't think this is a good time to ask for more taxes.

You should probably re-read this as nowhere does CATS say that it doesn't have enough money to build both train lines. They simply don't have enough money to build them BOTH within a specified time period without additional funds in place.

[monsoon]

There was a long article in the Huntersville Herald this week concerning the North line vs the North East extension. The argument is starting to be made by the non-Charlotte mayors on why not go ahead and build the North line since it is ready to go and the rails are there. To quote Jill Swain, the mayor of Huntersville, "The rail is already there." "We just have to put cars on them." CATS for its part is denying that a delay while they wait for the NE line will increase the costs of the North line.

There was a lot of discussion on the enormous cost of the NE line. Apparently the MTC only voted to continue engineering work on the line to UNCC solely because of the earmark that came from the 2009 Bush budget approved by Obama. Whether they continue or not is questionable. It appears that nobody is expecting the final price tag to be just $1.2B and are reluctant to sigh up for such a plan.

McCrory gave, what I found to be, a fascinating statement about the NE line. "If (CATS) did not tell us that we have some leverage in securing matching federal dollars, I would not move forward with this." "When we get that 30 (in percent design done) we'll see if the numbers look good, and if they don't, I'd tell the MTC to shut this down." As I said, it's a fascinating statement from Mr. Transportation.

So the new news is this. According to the Mayor (of Charlotte) if at the 30% design point, if the NE line appears to be too expensive for federal funding, they will simply shut down the project. They won't finish the design to the point of applying for a grant and won't pursue other funding options. The NE line, in its present form will be dead. IMO, the present NE LRT extension plan of the Lynx Blue Line has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.

[uptownliving]

McCrory gave, what I found to be, a fascinating statement about the NE line. "If (CATS) did not tell us that we have some leverage in securing matching federal dollars, I would not move forward with this." "When we get that 30 (in percent design done) we'll see if the numbers look good, and if they don't, I'd tell the MTC to shut this down." As I said, it's a fascinating statement from Mr. Transportation.

I don't think that is fascinating or new at all. McCrory has been saying the same thing for 10 years now that if the numbers don't work out then he will not vote in favor of moving forward and that pertains to all the lines...not just the BLE. But McCrory is going away and won't be on the MTC when they make the vote next year...so it really doesn't matter.

What the North Meck mayors will have to convince the rest of the MTC on....is that the North Line is worth it...even though it could require more 1/2 Cent Sales Tax money than the South LRT and yet only provide about 1/3 the Ridership.