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Election '08: Primaries

JDC

By JDC
in The Coffee House

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Rural King Town

Rural King

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Today's result goes to show that polling can be fatally flawed and miss key underlying trends and cannot anticipate unforseen developments that break after the sampling. The fatal flaw here was these polls all took their samples during a very brief and media charged 5 day period which gave a totally false impression of the trends in New Hampshire in the wake of Iowa. Even seasoned political analysts fell into the mind-set that Clinton was finished after the polling came in from multiple sources that had Obama up by double digits, which is very telling of how narratives are written by the media and their contributors. The media built up Obama to take this fall, not his campaign, just as they had built up Clinton as inevitable nominee up until Iowa.

At the end of the day the reality is that Obama did EXTREMELY well tonight in cutting into Clinton's previous large multi-month multi-point lead in New Hampshire - but that fact will be lost as the new narrative from the media will be that Clinton upset Obama.

The race will continue to prove interesting and unsettled for at least the short-term; as Nevada will prove interesting with its union factor, while South Carolina's closed primary and large minority population within the Democratic primary electorate will prove telling as to how the race might be breaking within the party rank and file membership leading up to Februrary 5th primaries.

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krazeeboi Gigalopolis

krazeeboi

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Even though the polls incorrectly predicted Obama as winning New Hampshire, his strong showing early on bodes really well for him. It should be interesting to see how things play out in Nevada and my own state. In New Hampshire, it appears as though independents were the swing voters. In South Carolina, it's said to be Black women.

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cityboi Metropolitan Area

cityboi

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People forget that Hillary didnt win by that much, she didnt blow Obama away. As monsoon pointed out, 2/3rds of democrats didnt not vote for her. Anti-Hillary votes went to Obama and Edwards. Its totally backwards to nominate Hillary. With Hillary there are alot of democrats that hate her on top of the 99.5% of republicans in this country that hate her. With Obama there are alot of republicans and independents that love him. Now you tell me which of the two is more electable? There will be plenty of democrats like monsoon and including myself that will either not vote if Hillary is nominated or will vote for the republican candidate. Im not going to vote for a candidate that I think will take this country in the wrong direction and if thats the case with the democratic and republican nominee, I just wont vote at all.

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Charlotte_native City

Charlotte_native

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Someone mentioned it before, but if Obama wins the nomination, I personally think an Obama / Edwards ticket would be fantastic. I really like John Edwards but I don't feel, at least now, he is presidential. I do think he is vice-Presidential and would be a strong Veep. An agenda of helping the poor and working on many domestic issues would be great for him while the President works to rebuild our foreign relations and rework the blundering and intrusive government we've built over the last few years.

Not to discount her from personal feelings, but as I was half asleep last night I heard newscasters talking about her big victory. When I awoke and read the headlines...3%? It is a victory for sure, especially a mental one, but certainly not a landslide. It worries me that there are Democrats out there that don't recognize how many people in both parties will not support her -- nothing to do with her being a woman, I think we've all seen that people are open-minded this year to non-white, non-male candidates, but because of her in general. I'm afraid that the best thing the GOP could hope for would be Hillary running for president.

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cityboi Metropolitan Area

cityboi

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Someone mentioned it before, but if Obama wins the nomination, I personally think an Obama / Edwards ticket would be fantastic. I really like John Edwards but I don't feel, at least now, he is presidential. I do think he is vice-Presidential and would be a strong Veep. An agenda of helping the poor and working on many domestic issues would be great for him while the President works to rebuild our foreign relations and rework the blundering and intrusive government we've built over the last few years.

Not to discount her from personal feelings, but as I was half asleep last night I heard newscasters talking about her big victory. When I awoke and read the headlines...3%? It is a victory for sure, especially a mental one, but certainly not a landslide. It worries me that there are Democrats out there that don't recognize how many people in both parties will not support her -- nothing to do with her being a woman, I think we've all seen that people are open-minded this year to non-white, non-male candidates, but because of her in general. I'm afraid that the best thing the GOP could hope for would be Hillary running for president.

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cityboi Metropolitan Area

cityboi

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For two reasons.

Edwards has run as VP for the ticket and lost. Nobody likes to vote again for a loser even though that was mostly due to that idiot Kerry.

The second reason is that he just does not seem that genuine. He is haunted by the fact that he gladly voted for the War when it was the politically popular thing to do when instead he should have been fighting it. The moral of that is that he is another politician that will say anything convenient.

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runawayjim Metropolis

runawayjim

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For two reasons.

Edwards has run as VP for the ticket and lost. Nobody likes to vote again for a loser even though that was mostly due to that idiot Kerry.

The second reason is that he just does not seem that genuine. He is haunted by the fact that he gladly voted for the War when it was the politically popular thing to do when instead he should have been fighting it. The moral of that is that he is another politician that will say anything convenient.

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atlrvr Metropolitan Area

atlrvr

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Ugh.....why won't people back Richardson. Hillary makes my skin crawl, and I just don't feel that Obama has enough substance (he's got to actually have a position beyond "Change" at some point).

There's just something about Edwards that I don't like (sort of how I've always felt something was wrong with McCain).

Richardson, on the other hand, is someone I could really get behind....the only democrat I could vote for...unless I'm left with Romney, McCain or Huckabee.

I just depressed myself. The only 3 candidates I wouldn't mind voting for are Richardson, Guiliani, and Thompson, and so far, they've yet to make a splash in the primaries. I suppose I should set my self up for disappointment.

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tombarnes City

tombarnes

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Just about everyone voted for the war. More important is the thought that Edwards will say anything which is convenient. $800 haircuts notwithstanding, there's still something at a personal level that I can't place with John Edwards. As noted above, he doesn't seem genuine. As for Hillary/Obama, I find Obama much more genuine/attractive/electable than Hillary. Whether or not his experience will be a negative factor is debatable. I had hoped that Hillary would have been a non-issue today. I see instead that we are in for a bruising fight. Romney? Huckabee? I doubt either of these two will receive the nomination. McCain will probably get it. Certainly old news and past his prime, but he's the best the Republicans have to put forth. A sad prospect indeed.

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ChiefJoJo Town

ChiefJoJo

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This isn't done by any means. I hope that Obama can regain strength. Perhaps McCain will be the Republican nominee. Better than Huckabee by a long shot. I still wonder where these primaries will go...Hillary's entitllement surely can't go forward, McCain is an honorable man, but I don't see him being elected over a Democrat in this election. Electing Hillary would be a step backward for our country.
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JDC Burg

JDC

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The media needs to stay out of this. They've lost any and all credibility after their disgraceful performance these past few weeks. I think the pile on of Hillary is a large part of what spawned a real backlash against the other candidates and a pro-Hillary vote from a huge amount of women. I'm not one to feel sorry for Hillary, but she had a point when she said the coverage was not fair.
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vdogg Megalopolis

vdogg

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"Why were all the New Hampshire polls so utterly wrong? How did Clinton overcome such a huge deficit in the polls in one day?...In Iowa, exit polling said that women comprised 57% of Democratic voters, and went 30% for Clinton, 35% Obama, 23% [John] Edwards. In New Hampshire they were likewise 57% of the vote, but it fell 47% for Clinton, 34% for Obama, 14% for Edwards...Obama held his women voters -- Clinton took them from Edwards. Did his pivot against her during the last debate and his comments yesterday contribute to what happened?"
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runawayjim Metropolis

runawayjim

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This is an interesting quote. I didn't think about it this way, but the math works perfectly. It seems like Edwards off the cuff remark just before primary turned off women and put them in Hillary's corner. I'll believe this more than I'll believe it was all attributed to the crying.
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