South Carolina's population growth

[cabelagent]

2 hours ago, GvilleSC said:

 

Wow- I'm so used to Greenville hovering just above or below 60,000. It almost holds a shock factor to see it inching toward 70k. It's nice to see the City finally able to capture more growth within its boundaries. I assume this is mostly the result of downtown residential construction and the continued development in the greater Verdae/85 area.

This is the largest population ever for the city...exceeds the 1960 census of 66K. Would not be surprised if city approaches 75K for the 2020 census. The county population must be approaching 500K very soon.

Edited May 25, 2017 by cabelagent

[Spartan]

15 hours ago, cabelagent said:

This is the largest population ever for the city...exceeds the 1960 census of 66K. Would not be surprised if city approaches 75K for the 2020 census. The county population must be approaching 500K very soon.

Assuming the growth over the past couple of years continues I think it's likely that Greenville will hit 75k. I personally would like it if Greenville could hit 100k by 2025 or 2030. Really what I want is for Greenville to gain on and exceed Rock Hill, Mount Pleasant and North Charleston in population. In my dream world, we wouldn't have suburbs that exceed the populations of our three largest population centers in the state. 

And selfishly, I'd like it if the second tier towns like Spartanburg, Florence, and Aiken, could catch up to where Rock Hill is today. 

[B&R]

On 5/25/2017 at 5:08 PM, cabelagent said:

This is the largest population ever for the city...exceeds the 1960 census of 66K. Would not be surprised if city approaches 75K for the 2020 census. The county population must be approaching 500K very soon.

Greenville County was a little more than 1000 residents from 500,000 according to the Census estimate for July 1, 2016.    The 500,000 milestone was probably reached in August or September of last year if the  growth rate stayed the same.

[cabelagent]

SC  now has population. over 5M residents according to new official census estimate. The upstate has new folks that have recently moved from other areas of country....meet many shopping at Cabelas. They love Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson area....as they should.

[Spartan]

I think the evolution of Beaufort County has been and is going to be interesting to watch. Beaufort has seen significant population growth. While not as impressive in terms of sheer volume compared to places like Charleston or the Upstate, it's still growing at an impressive clip. The interesting thing is that they have by far the most progressive building codes in the state. They are setting themselves up for a very high quality, sustainable built environment over time. You can already see it taking shape in places like Habersham.  That being said, being the go-to place for retirees doesn't seem like a sustainable growth model for obvious reasons. I hope that they are able to attract a more diverse economy over time.

[distortedlogic]

Looks like county, metro, and micro estimates will be embargoed on Tuesday, with a public release the following Tuesday, 3/20. 

[vicupstate]

SC population gains are slowing but still rising

The 10 S.C. counties that saw the most rapid population growth, July 1 2016 to July 1 2017, according to the Census Bureau, and how many residents were added to the population.

1. Horry, 3.7%, 11,828
2. York, 3.3%, 8,441
3. Lancaster, 3.0%, 2,695
4. Berkeley, 2.9%, 6,074
5. Dorchester, 1.9%, 2,985
6. Spartanburg, 1.9%, 5,788
7. Beaufort, 1.8%, 3,347
8. Greenville, 1.6%, 7,803
9. Lexington, 1.5%, 4,248
10. Anderson, 1.4%, 2,791

[Spartan]

Charleston's suburban gains aren't surprising given the massive amount of investment in new manufacturing plants in the fringe areas of the metro.

[Amapper]

On 3/26/2015 at 10:47 PM, clt29301 said:

The other news for Mecklenburg is the rate of growth for this time period, over 10%...........not bad for a county of 1m residents.

 

For other SC Counties.........the Charlotte metro counties are also "killing it".  York is growing at 8.53% and Lancaster is growing at 8.5%.

 

Metro wise, Charlotte and Charleston are both well above 7% while Greenville and Columbia are in the same 4.50% range. Charlotte is now the 22nd largest metro in the country (2.4m residents), just passing Pittsburgh. 

 

Growth in the coastal area is mainly driven by retirees.

1

Not so in the Charleston area. Thousands of jobs in all areas of work. Volvo 4k and Mercedes Vans 1.5k to name two. There are retirees also but not like Myrtle Beach. Also during that time frame, Boeing added around 7k.

[erm1981]

On 4/17/2018 at 8:47 AM, Amapper said:

Not so in the Charleston area. Thousands of jobs in all areas of work. Volvo 4k and Mercedes Vans 1.5k to name two. There are retirees also but not like Myrtle Beach. Also during that time frame, Boeing added around 7k.

Ive had a few subcontractors from Charlotte here in Charleston area and they tell me we are building more here right now then in the Charlotte metro.

[distortedlogic]

Looks like the new city estimates will be embargoed on 5/22, with the public release set for 5/24. Will be interesting to track the trends, as always. 

[vicupstate]

2017 Population estimates show growth on coast and mountain cities

Mt. Pleasant had highest raw increase. Fort Mill teh highest percentage. 

Charleston gains just over 1,000 to remain  the largest city.  Greer gained 1,912  and Greenville 1,291.  North Charleston over 110,000 now. 

Columbia, Florence and Sumter each lost population. 

[GvilleSC]

It's pretty exciting to see Greenville nearing the 70,000 mark. For anyone who watched Greenville dip around 56,000 before beginning to rebound, it would certainly be a big mark to hit. 

[cabelagent]

On May 25, 2018 at 9:55 AM, GvilleSC said:

It's pretty exciting to see Greenville nearing the 70,000 mark. For anyone who watched Greenville dip around 56,000 before beginning to rebound, it would certainly be a big mark to hit. 

70K is OK...if annexation laws were better, the city would easily pass population of 100K+.

[erm1981]

The drive from Mount Pleasant to Summerville everyday has a been a bear since the Wando Bridge went down.  I can believe those population figures.  Definitely "feels" like it.   I was born and raised in Greenville and moved here 8 years ago.  Since then the growth has been on hyper drive.  I remember Greenville struggling around 56,000 back in the day.  Good to see the home town booming.

[distortedlogic]

Hey ERM, I haven't heard from you in years! Good to see you're still involved, I miss your contribution to the Greenville forum. Yeah, Gville has really boomed since the recession, if you haven't been back recently you should come check out the DT growth, it's incredible! Take care man!

[Spartan]

On 5/26/2018 at 5:57 PM, cabelagent said:

70K is OK...if annexation laws were better, the city would easily pass population of 100K+.

If South Carolina had better annexation laws, all cities in the state would have larger populations. Greenville, Charleston, and Columbia would all be 200k-250k. Places like Spartanburg, and, Anderson, Florence maybe Rock Hill would probably be close to or over 100k, Greenwood and Orangeburg would be more like 50k, etc. Aside from the population statistics, cities would be financially more stable and be able to provide better and more efficient/effective services to their residents and businesses. Oh well.

 

[Exile]

On 6/8/2018 at 1:00 PM, Spartan said:

If South Carolina had better annexation laws, all cities in the state would have larger populations. Greenville, Charleston, and Columbia would all be 200k-250k. Places like Spartanburg, and, Anderson, Florence maybe Rock Hill would probably be close to or over 100k, Greenwood and Orangeburg would be more like 50k, etc. Aside from the population statistics, cities would be financially more stable and be able to provide better and more efficient/effective services to their residents and businesses. Oh well.

 

Why do Greenville's limits remain so puny when Columbia's have been big (seems like) forever, at ~134 SM, and Charleston's have grown  so much (~127). Rock Hill's even about 43 SM. And I remember Greer went on an annexation tear back in the 90's.

Must be something about Greenville in particular.

And incidentally, SC's big three got some notice in the Charlotte population forum (not without one or two nuancing replies, but all respectful of SC growth).

 

[Spartan]

7 hours ago, Exile said:

Why do Greenville's limits remain so puny when Columbia's have been big (seems like) forever, at ~134 SM, and Charleston's have grown  so much (~127). Rock Hill's even about 43 SM. And I remember Greer went on an annexation tear back in the 90's.

Must be something about Greenville in particular.

And incidentally, SC's big three got some notice in the Charlotte population forum (not without one or two nuancing replies, but all respectful of SC growth).

 

 

It really doesn't have much to do with Greenville, specifically. Spartanburg and Anderson are both in the same situation as Greenville, just with smaller populations. It has more to do with WHEN the growth happened.

 

The answer to your question lies in the Home Rule Act of 1975. In order to understand the history of municipal governments in South Carolina you have to look at the history of state as a whole. South Carolina politics dating back to colonial times has always been dominated by the legislature. This was by design because the colonists did not support the Crown Government, and thus resented the presence of the royal representative. By minimizing his power they were able to have more local control (local being the Colony of South Carolina in this case). Also keep in mind that Carolina, and later South Carolina, was largely comprised of Charleston and then farms and Native Americans in the Colonial and Antebellum eras. You can look at the history of the state and see the evolution of the government. But it was always controlled by the general assembly, which in turn was dominated by Charleston for most of the state's history (and still heavily influenced by it today). Only in the past 30 years or so has the governor's office been given enough power to be anything more than a figurehead.

 

Anyway, to get back to the point, local government in South Carolina was also dominated by the state. Cities and Counties were directly controlled by the state. To that end, we didn't really have "counties" in the way we think of them today until after the Civil War (I assume it was a function of the Reconstruction era government, but I have not researched that aspect of it).  We had parishes and districts (ie: Ninety Six) that really served more for organizing the judicial system than administering local government.  After the Civil War, counties were the dominant local government. Each county had 1 senator who was incredibly powerful. The senators controlled all the money that flowed into their counties via an annual "supply bill," and it was a very desirable position to have, especially if you represented a county with a larger population. Incidentally, the good ol' boy system we have today traces its roots to this era.

 

So, the state controlled all aspects of government, right? Counties were their primary local government funding mechanism. Cities were there too, but generally an afterthought. But keep 1975 in mind... as you are undoubtedly aware, urban growth continued in South Carolina. In most states, cities are the entities set up to deal with urban issues. Police, fire, water, sewer, garbage collection, roads, etc... these are the typical things that local government is designed to deal with. Generally speaking, if you need those types of "urban" services, you should be a part of a city so that your taxes can be directed for that purpose.

 

But South Carolina chose to do something different. Rather than enabling annexation as a tool, they set up "Special Purpose Districts" in the 1930s to handle the job. These districts were set up by County governments and to address urban problems. They are quasi-governmental bodies that typically "govern" one specific urban service. Examples include water and sewer districts, fire districts, etc. They were set up by county governments during the era before 1975, when Counties and their Senators were the main source of funding and thus power in the state. So, you ended up with a system where cities provided urban services to their residents, but often were not able to provide these same services beyond their corporate limits, and Special Purpose Districts were chartered to pick up the slack, because urban services are a necessity when you live in close proximity to other people. The interesting thing, is that in many cases, the SPD's paid for the urban service that they bought from the neighboring City. So for example, there were (and are to this day) "water districts" that provide water service to their constituents by taking their tax money to build and maintain infrastructure that is connected to the neighboring city, from which they then buy their water.

 

I’m not saying cities didn’t annex prior to 1975. Charleston annexed a large area from Calhoun Street to Line Street in 1850, and they first crossed the Ashley River in 1960. Columbia annexed Shandon and Eau Claire at some point. Greenville and Spartanburg annexed some of their older neighborhoods too. The process was just different. Quite frankly, I have yet to find a reliable source to tell me how cities in SC annexed prior to 1975, but the point is that they certainly did… just not very much. My assumption is that it was an act of the general assembly led by their senator.

 

It all changed in 1975, though. Due to the Voting Rights Act, South Carolina was forced to devolve its power away from the general assembly. The 1 senator for each county system went away (while we still have 46 senators, the districts are created based on population, not county boundaries). The Home Rule Act passed in 1975, essentially giving cities the right to annex and do the things that they were meant to do. It also ended the creation of Special Purpose Districts, but allowed the existing ones to be grandfathered in. In all, there are roughly 250 remaining special purpose districts in South Carolina. Their legacy, however, remains. Each of them has its own elected body, can raise your taxes, and pass bonds independently of the County government... and the fun part is that they overlap and can create hundreds of unique tax district combinations. It makes managing the county's taxes super fun, and you can look it up for yourself if you check out your county's budget/revenue streams. Spartanburg County, for example, has over 200 unique tax district categories (not counting where they are geographically). 

 

Home Rule also set up the annexation laws we have in place today. However it used to work didn’t matter. Cities had to go through the arduous process that exists to this day, and as a result, the city limits that exist today for all cities in SC are, for the most part, basically the same as they were geographically in 1975 (Columbia and the Charleston area cities being the major exceptions).  Think about that situation. though... you now have cities that can annex, but the areas they would typically annex to provide services to already have the services they need. So, as a resident, why would I annex when I ostensibly have the services I need? The result is that they don’t annex too much. However, when they do, they do it to provide water, sewer, or some other urban service to people who need it. 

 

The interesting thing, to me, is that cities in the Upstate have been by far the most passive about the situation, whereas cities in the Lowcountry have been the most aggressive. There is also a strong correlation with the number of SPD's that exist in each region - Upstate counties have the most and Lowcountry counties have the least. Greenville, for example, has 29, Charleston has 10, Spartanburg has 28, Berkeley has 1. Here's a list if you want to see for yourself.

 

The reason you should care about all of this, though, is not just because of the population statistics. Its about good governance. When I lived in SC, I once voted for some guy to be on the board of whatever fire district I lived in. He was the only guy on the ballot. I have no idea who he was, and I have no idea if he was qualified for the position. There was no campaign. To me, that is not acceptable. If you live in multiple overlapping districts you would have to keep track of all of them, plus your school board, plus your county council, plus your state legislature districts, plus congress. It's too many layers of government, and in my opinion it makes for a highly ineffective system. 

 

Anyway, that's my rant for tonight. Point being, Greenville isn't to blame for it's population stats. It's the General Assembly.

[vicupstate]

Annexation prior to 1975 was by election. That is still a legal but rarely used option. The Legislature is not directly involved in annexations then or now, except as they change the laws involved.

As Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson (to a lessor degree) developed in the  pre war1900's, it was surrounded by unincorporated Mill communiites. These were owned  and controlled by the mills themselves and they opposed annexation unilatrally.  This is the primary reason Greenville's limits did not move much for decades. The communities that came afterwards relied on PSDs for services and thus had less need for city services.  That said Charleston was surrounded by PSDs too. However, they have simply been far more aggressive to  extend their borders.   Mayor Gaillard jumped the Ashley River in 1960  and later Joe Riley drove the effort from 1975 to 2015.

BTW, EauClaire was a separate town that merged into Columbia  about 1955. Probably the biggest mistake they ever made.  If you look at the older maps, you will see the circle that formed it's former limits.  

 

.

[distortedlogic]

Awesome write-ups Spartan and Vic! Makes a lot of sense. And to piggy back on Vic, I would also add that the upstate growth is relatively new. Historically, the upstate, or "Backcountry" was sparsely populated. As recently as 1960, Greenville, Richland, and Charleston counties were almost exactly the same size, roughly 240k. Since then, Greenville county growth has far outstripped the others, meaning most of it's population growth has been recent. Why would that matter? Because when SC cities first started incorporating and annexing way back when, Charleston and Columbia were already important cities and had both the people and the need to annex. That wasn't nearly as true for upstate cities. We were late to the game, and by the time there was a need, Spartan' s SPD s were in place. Then, since 1975, about the time Max Heller started turning Greenville around, leaders have seemed more concerned with recreating Greenville than with expanding it. Thus we have Greenville 2018, with about 28 sq miles, and barely unchanged in decades. 

[vicupstate]

One interwsting thing is Greenville  has about 70k inside a 28 sq. mile boundary. Charleston is just about double in population but has 112 sq. miles.  The disparity is even greater between Greenville and Columbia.  That disparity will stay largely in place as the Columbia disparity is from Ft. Jackson's large acreage.  The same is not true of Charleston though.  Daniel Island and Cainhoy are largely vacant but will eventually be developed for the most part.   

[erm1981]

On 5/29/2018 at 11:05 PM, distortedlogic said:

Hey ERM, I haven't heard from you in years! Good to see you're still involved, I miss your contribution to the Greenville forum. Yeah, Gville has really boomed since the recession, if you haven't been back recently you should come check out the DT growth, it's incredible! Take care man!

Hey bud.  Yeah I was absent for quite sometime.  When i got done at Clemson I moved to Charleston the same year (2010).  Every since then it has been growing like crazy.  Ive been through downtown Greenville a few times in the past few years and have also been amazed by the progress.  I really miss Greenville sometimes.  Guess Im more of a mountain guy then a beach guy but we have to live somewhere.....right?  I do know Charleston like the back of my hand now so thats a good thing.  

[erm1981]

On 4/17/2018 at 8:47 AM, Amapper said:

Not so in the Charleston area. Thousands of jobs in all areas of work. Volvo 4k and Mercedes Vans 1.5k to name two. There are retirees also but not like Myrtle Beach. Also during that time frame, Boeing added around 7k.

Ditto

[ZUMAN2]

9 hours ago, vicupstate said:

One interwsting thing is Greenville  has about 70k inside a 28 sq. mile boundary. Charleston is just about double in population but has 112 sq. miles.  The disparity is even greater between Greenville and Columbia.  That disparity will stay largely in place as the Columbia disparity is from Ft. Jackson's large acreage.  The same is not true of Charleston though.  Daniel Island and Cainhoy are largely vacant but will eventually be developed for the most part.   

Daniel Island is essentially built-out now.  Mostly all that is left is some in-fill parcels.   There are actually some areas near or around DI that could be annexed but nothing significant in size.