South Carolina's population growth

[erm1981]

On 5/13/2019 at 9:52 PM, motonenterprises said:

10 years ago is quite a while. Things have changed in lots of places in that time. Including Greenville. If anything Charleston being landlocked and maybe having less roads could contribute to this more congestion feeling. Greenville county has 514k people alone. So I wouldn't think it was necessarily a population thing. Unless they just haven't upgraded the roads.

Im sure I come to the upstate way more than you come here.

I drive though Greenville every couple of weeks.  Recently went up I-385 and saw the nice new big interchange with I-85(  I keep up with Gville heavily)  My family is still up there.  It's really l not that bad IMHO after dealing with traffic here.  Are you saying you want Greenville to have Charleston like traffic?  Please dont wish that on anyone!  I can pretty much go wherever I want to in Greenville freely whenever I'm there during the week or weekdays.  I do agree the road network is better in Greenville and Columbia.  We have all these obstacles here when it comes to building(I'm in the construction industry myself.)  I worked on a 80 million dollar expansion and widening of Johnny dodds Blvd in Mount P. when first moving here in 2011-2012.  Its 6 lanes way up past McCllenville now but it backs up horribly.  The new Nexton interchange just opened up at exit 197.  Bacons bridge rd through Summerville and Bees Ferry were all widened along with Dorchester road.  These were very massive road projects.  I know the area well.  So yes they are building plenty but just a lot more growth here.  They have actually built or widened more roads here in the past couple years then Greenville or Cola has.  

Mount P.  Had to cut back on building permits because they are now land locked.  Almost facing build out.  

Just look at how long the new North Charleston port exit is taking to build because it's all elevated highway.  You either have water to contend with or not enough land left anywhere.  It's really a different animal.  

Gville and Charleston are both great but comparing them is like comparing apples and oranges and for good reasons.  If you were to compress Anderson, Greenville, and Spartanburg into the area a little bigger than the tri-county area here you would probably feel something similar with the traffic.    It's hard to compare them.  Just really different scenarios but there has been more growth here when looking at it as a percentage of current the population. Charleston County is about to pass Richland as 2nd largest county in state.  Already passed them for largest city.  So you can see the more rapid gains happening as time goes by.

 

[erm1981]

On 5/15/2019 at 8:50 AM, CLT_sc said:

Charleston is one of the fastest growing metros, their traffic is driven in large part because of population growth.  The geography makes the issue more acute.

and, tourism growth also plays a large part of traffic in Charleston.

Yes...this!

[erm1981]

5 hours ago, vicupstate said:

City Census Estimates are out.  

Charleston, Greenville and Summerville saw meager population increases last year, and Columbia — which used to be the state’s largest city — saw its population decline for a second consecutive year.

Both North Charleston and Fort Mill gained just over 2,300 residents in 2018. North Charleston is the state’s third-largest city, and those new residents raised the city’s population by just over 2 percent, but in Fort Mill that was a more than 13 percent population increase in a single year.

Fort Mill’s population has climbed an estimated 69 percent since 2010  

• Mount Pleasant: 2,591
• Fort Mill: 2,314
• North Charleston: 2,305
• Bluffton: 2,301
• Fountain Inn: 1,365
• Rock Hill: 1,296
• Hanahan: 1,214
• Conway: 1,204
• Myrtle Beach: 1,173
• Greer: 1,036
• Goose Creek: 1,013

Charleston gained fewer than 500 residents while Columbia lost more than 400. Greenville only gained an estimated 295 residents in 2018, two years after that city was estimated to have grown by more than 3,500. 

The most rapid growth in the Charleston metro area, 2010-18:

• Moncks Corner, 47%, from 7,753 to 11,419
• Hanahan, 43%, from 18,071 to 25,765
• Mount Pleasant, 31%, from 67,961 to 89,338
• Summerville, 20%, from 43,078 to 51,692
• Goose Creek, 17%, from 36,668 to 42,841
• North Charleston, 16%, from 97,939 to 113,237
• Charleston, 13%, from 120,911 to 136,208

This is pretty accurate from my view of what's going on around Charleston metro.  Heavy growth in the northern areas of the metro away from the Ocean.  Berkeley county where the large neighborhoods of Cain Bay and Nexton are and it's also a short drive to the Volvo/Mercedes Plants.   A lot of businesses here have moved from Mount P or West Ashley to the North Charleston area for beneficial reasons and purposes.  What will be funny is when North Charleston passes Columbia as the states second largest city lol. 

Another thing that is interesting is Hanahans growth.  I lived there when I first moved to Charleston area.  It mostly lies in Berkely county but is very close to North Charleston city limits.  The rail road tracks seperate the counties near Rivers Avenue in North Chas. So I can see why that area has grown so rapidly also.  It's near everything and close to North Chas. City limits.    Interesting.

Edited May 23, 2019 by erm1981

[erm1981]

https://www.postandcourier.com/news/mount-pleasant-north-charleston-and-hanahan-lead-charleston-area-growth/article_187a6b16-7be4-11e9-a6cd-ab299f4cca83.html

 

[motonenterprises]

47 minutes ago, erm1981 said:

Im sure I come to the upstate way more than you come here.

I drive though Greenville every couple of weeks.  Recently went up I-385 and saw the nice new big interchange with I-85(  I keep up with Gville heavily)  My family is still up there.  It's really l not that bad IMHO after dealing with traffic here.  Are you saying you want Greenville to have Charleston like traffic?  Please dont wish that on anyone!  I can pretty much go wherever I want to in Greenville freely whenever I'm there during the week or weekdays.  I do agree the road network is better in Greenville and Columbia.  We have all these obstacles here when it comes to building(I'm in the construction industry myself.)  I worked on a 80 million dollar expansion and widening of Johnny dodds Blvd in Mount P. when first moving here in 2011-2012.  Its 6 lanes way up past McCllenville now but it backs up horribly.  The new Nexton interchange just opened up at exit 197.  Bacons bridge rd through Summerville and Bees Ferry were all widened along with Dorchester road.  These were very massive road projects.  I know the area well.  So yes they are building plenty but just a lot more growth here.  They have actually built or widened more roads here in the past couple years then Greenville or Cola has.  

Mount P.  Had to cut back on building permits because they are now land locked.  Almost facing build out.  

Just look at how long the new North Charleston port exit is taking to build because it's all elevated highway.  You either have water to contend with or not enough land left anywhere.  It's really a different animal.  

Gville and Charleston are both great but comparing them is like comparing apples and oranges and for good reasons.  If you were to compress Anderson, Greenville, and Spartanburg into the area a little bigger than the tri-county area here you would probably feel something similar with the traffic.    It's hard to compare them.  Just really different scenarios but there has been more growth here when looking at it as a percentage of current the population. Charleston County is about to pass Richland as 2nd largest county in state.  Already passed them for largest city.  So you can see the more rapid gains happening as time goes by.

 

Like I said. Because of different dynamics, not because the area is more populated. It really isn't. Even if it has grown more percentage wise. If you couldn't go straight through here on all sides I'm sure it would feel much worse too. Any area of some size would. Are you indicating that the population of Charleston feels like the population of 3 counties, with one of those counties being 514k alone? I didn't feel that when I was down recently. The three together would be well over 1 million people. I'm not debating that it isn't more congested there, I'm just saying it isn't necessarily because of population alone. Perhaps the roads aren't sufficient for the population there and in the other areas the roads are more suited for the population. Plus not being landlocked. Traffic is traffic to me. None here in SC are worse than I've experienced in Atlanta and DC. We all have our opinions and it's okay to see differently.

Edited May 24, 2019 by motonenterprises

[motonenterprises]

Man. I can't lie. These numbers can throw some off. According to the numbers Spartanburg is only 5k or so people larger than Greer. Lol. If you've spent time in both you can see clearly that Greer is a suburb and Spartanburg is a great deal larger than Greer. While our city population numbers are definitely useful in some ways, they can definitely throw outsiders off. I experience this with clients often. They usually state that it feels much larger than the city population they saw. In reference to Greenville and Spartanburg, but it effects many cities in the state.

[Spartan]

14 hours ago, motonenterprises said:

Man. I can't lie. These numbers can throw some off. According to the numbers Spartanburg is only 5k or so people larger than Greer. Lol. If you've spent time in both you can see clearly that Greer is a suburb and Spartanburg is a great deal larger than Greer. While our city population numbers are definitely useful in some ways, they can definitely throw outsiders off. I experience this with clients often. They usually state that it feels much larger than the city population they saw. In reference to Greenville and Spartanburg, but it effects many cities in the state.

That's why city population numbers really aren't relevant to anything. It's a political process that is an arbitrary measure of size at best. It's a good way to compare service metrics, but that's about it. Sure there are some bragging rights too... but at the end of the day,  urbanized area is a better metric to reflect city size. If you look at those statistics, it's usually something like: 1)Columbia, 2) Charleston, 3) Greenville, 4) Myrtle Beach, 5) Spartanburg. Greer is not the center of an urbanized area, its a node within Greenville's.

The Columbia/Charleston situation is interesting since both cities are roughly the same size, and the urbanized area populations are also about the same size. The difference in the population is so small that its within the statistical error of the population calculations from the census. It will be interesting to see how accurate they are in the 2020 Census.

 

[Exile]

According to what I've been able to gather, Greenville's UA includes Greer, Easley, and snakes down 123 all the way to Clemson, but does not include Mauldin or Simpsonville. From what I can tell, there's no similar division of, say, Lexington from Columbia or Summerville from Charleston.

Am I correct about Greenville's UA? If so, why is that the case, because I can't see any obvious division. The Golden Strip's at least as contiguous as Liberty, Central, and Clemson.

[distortedlogic]

56 minutes ago, Exile said:

According to what I've been able to gather, Greenville's UA includes Greer, Easley, and snakes down 123 all the way to Clemson, but does not include Mauldin or Simpsonville. From what I can tell, there's no similar division of, say, Lexington from Columbia or Summerville from Charleston.

Am I correct about Greenville's UA? If so, why is that the case, because I can't see any obvious division. The Golden Strip's at least as contiguous as Liberty, Central, and Clemson.

That makes no sense to me either. There are many streets you can drive down and have no idea you are shifting between Greenville/Mauldin/ Simpsonville; it just feels like one continous street of development. There's much more separation b/w Greenville and the Pickes county cities. Don't know about Greer though, remember half of Greer isn't even included in the MSA as it's Spartanburg county.  It seems like trying to nail down population for the upstate is a lost cause. 

[distortedlogic]

23 hours ago, vicupstate said:

City Census Estimates are out.  

Charleston, Greenville and Summerville saw meager population increases last year, and Columbia — which used to be the state’s largest city — saw its population decline for a second consecutive year.

Both North Charleston and Fort Mill gained just over 2,300 residents in 2018. North Charleston is the state’s third-largest city, and those new residents raised the city’s population by just over 2 percent, but in Fort Mill that was a more than 13 percent population increase in a single year.

Fort Mill’s population has climbed an estimated 69 percent since 2010  

• Mount Pleasant: 2,591
• Fort Mill: 2,314
• North Charleston: 2,305
• Bluffton: 2,301
• Fountain Inn: 1,365
• Rock Hill: 1,296
• Hanahan: 1,214
• Conway: 1,204
• Myrtle Beach: 1,173
• Greer: 1,036
• Goose Creek: 1,013

 

Aside from MYB, every one of those are suburbs. Guess we're back to having the burbs outgrow our cities.  

I'm quite suprised at many of the numbers this year; Ft Inn? Where did that come from? 

Also very surprised to see that Greenville only added 295; maybe very few of the downtown units actually opened last year?  That seems off to me, but also makes me really doubt the large growth estimates from a couple of years ago of 3500 or so. Who really knows? 

[vicupstate]

Ft. Inn is probably annexation. They had a couple of shoestring ones in the recent past. 

 

[CLT_sc]

City population #’s are mostly meaningless.  But, for Cola, how does Carolina factor into the population?  I have read that a school’s population will be included in the population for its home city.   But, based on the bar chart above, Cola is holding flat for most of this time period.  In the same timeframe, Carolina has grown by thousands. So, I am not sure it is reflected.

[cabelagent]

23 hours ago, CLT_sc said:

City population #’s are mostly meaningless.  But, for Cola, how does Carolina factor into the population?  I have read that a school’s population will be included in the population for its home city.   But, based on the bar chart above, Cola is holding flat for most of this time period.  In the same timeframe, Carolina has grown by thousands. So, I am not sure it is reflected.

Good point....would not think college students would be included in a city census unless they are some type of permanent off campus resident during census period.  Do parents of a college student include their child on a local census if they are away at college for a temporary situation? Calculating census data for a college town must be a nightmare...

[distortedlogic]

4 minutes ago, cabelagent said:

Good point....would not think college students would be included in a city census unless they are some type of permanent off campus resident during census period.  Do parents of a college student include their child on a local census if they are away at college for a temporary situation? Calculating census data for a college town must be a nightmare...

I was in college during a census and we were told we were included in the city and county of the school we attended. 

[cabelagent]

2 minutes ago, distortedlogic said:

I was in college during a census and we were told we were included in the city and county of the school we attended. 

Makes sense...students have to be counted whether it's a temporary or permanent residence.  

[CLT_sc]

On 5/27/2019 at 5:16 AM, distortedlogic said:

I was in college during a census and we were told we were included in the city and county of the school we attended. 

If that is the case, Cola’s population should be rising as the school’s population has risen to about 34k or 9k more than 10 years ago.  Overall, metro population tells a better story, but interesting question given a slight decrease in city population when Carolina has grown so much.

[distortedlogic]

3 hours ago, CLT_sc said:

If that is the case, Cola’s population should be rising as the school’s population has risen to about 34k or 9k more than 10 years ago.  Overall, metro population tells a better story, but interesting question given a slight decrease in city population when Carolina has grown so much.

Good question about USC and Cola,  I don't know the answer.  Perhaps USC growth is the growth Cola  has seen over the past decade instead of people actually moving into the city limits?

Here is a link to the rules. This matches with what I remember.  Basically if you live on campus or in the city most of time you're counted in that city and state.

http://www.fdlp.gov/file-repository/outreach/events/depository-library-council-dlc-meetings/2014-meeting-proceedings/2422-college-students-and-the-us-census/file

[Spartan]

The Census is based on where you are living on April 1 of the census year, so yes, college students count towards whatever jurisdiction they are in. So, all Carolina students would count towards Columbia and Richland's population, CofC counts towards Charleston's, etc. but Clemson's on campus residents only count towards Pickens County, not the town since the university hasn't been annexed.

Re: Urban Areas: They are supposed to be objective and based on density and commuting patterns, but I think there are some mild politics involved too. The Mauldin/Simpsonville thing has always been confusing to me.

On 5/29/2019 at 8:24 PM, distortedlogic said:

Good question about USC and Cola,  I don't know the answer.  Perhaps USC growth is the growth Cola  has seen over the past decade instead of people actually moving into the city limits?

USC's growth is probably part of the estimate, but not all of it. I don't think the university's population can account for ALL of the growth since they annex quite a bit. But even if it does - what difference does it make? They're still residents of Columbia.

[krazeeboi]

On 5/24/2019 at 11:47 AM, Exile said:

According to what I've been able to gather, Greenville's UA includes Greer, Easley, and snakes down 123 all the way to Clemson, but does not include Mauldin or Simpsonville. From what I can tell, there's no similar division of, say, Lexington from Columbia or Summerville from Charleston.

Am I correct about Greenville's UA? If so, why is that the case, because I can't see any obvious division. The Golden Strip's at least as contiguous as Liberty, Central, and Clemson.

Mauldin-Simpsonville is a separate UA because when UAs were first defined and delineated, that area had enough people at the minimum density level (at least) to qualify as its own UA and there's only like one or two special circumstances where UAs can be merged or folded into each other; otherwise they retain their independent, individual identities even if the sprawl of a nearby larger city has connected it to that city. Lexington and Summerville weren't large enough to have their own UAs when the concept was first introduced and thus they have been absorbed into Columbia's and Charleston's UAs respectively. 

[distortedlogic]

Here's an update from world population review, which uses UN data.  It shows 2018 pop at 5.084MM for 2018, matching the census bureau's estimate. It first showed a 2019 estimate back in the early part of the year I think, of 5.153 MM. Looks like that has been adjusted down slightly to 5.147MM. It also shows a 2020 estimate (projection I guess?) of 5. 21MM.  We'll see what the CB puts out for 2019 in December and see if it's close to their 2019 estimate.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/south-carolina-population/

[distortedlogic]

Census Bureau to release US and state estimates for 7/1/2019 on Dec 30th. 

Last year's estimate for SC was 5.084MM.  I am interested to see if growth has slowed or increased this past year, and how it compares with the UN estimate of 5.147MM.

County estimates will be released in March, with city estimates being released in May. 

[distortedlogic]

Estimates released today, SC continued to grow about as expected. SC added roughly 64.5K, or 1.3%,  from July 1 2018-2019. This ranks SC  8th in the nation for raw number growth and 6th for percentage. 

The total gain since the last census is 523,348 (which puts SC number 10 in the nation in raw numbers growth), or an 11.3% growth rate (which ranks 11th in the nation).  Most of the growth is from migration from other states. 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2019/national-state-estimates.html

[distortedlogic]

Latest estimates released yesterday for MSA/CSA/MicropolitanSA, and County estimates. 

Here are the largest counties according to the latest estimate:

 

Greenville  523,542

Richland   415,759

Charleston   411,406

Horry   354,081

Spartanburg   319,785

Lexington   298,750

York   280,979

Berkely   227,907

Anderson   202,558

 

Top numeric gains for last year:

Horry   + 9,976

Greenville + 8,921

York + 7,197

Berkely + 6,725

Spartanburg + 5,648

Chalreston + 5,184

Lexington + 4,400

Beaufort + 3,246

Lancaster + 2,977

Anderson + 2,266

Dorchester + 2,091

 

In percentage these were the largest gainers: (top 100)

Jasper + 3.2%  (926)

Lancaster + 3.1% (2,977)

Berkeley +3.0% (6,725)

Horry +2.9% (9,976)

York +2.6% ( 7,197)

Others (sub top 100)

Spartanburg + 1.8% (5,648)

Greenville + 1.7% (8,921)

Beaufort +1.7% (3,246)

Lexington + 1.5% (4,400)

Charleston + 1.3% (5,184)

Pickens +1.3% (1,659)

Dorchester + 1.3% (2,091)

Anderson +1.1% (2,266)

 

Also noticed Kershaw, Oconee, and even Laurens had respectable gains but I did not include them as they are significantly smaller counties. 

Charleston looks to overtake Richland in the next year or two. Spartanburg distancing itself from Lexington.  Horry continues to outgain all others, with Greenville second. Greenville continues to distance itself from Richland and Charleston counties.

 

Here are cumulative changes since 2010 based on estimates: Raw numbers:

Horry    84,935

Greenville   72,331

Charleston   61,278

York   54,942

Berkeley   49,534

Lexington   36,297

Spartanburg   35,481

Richland   31,334

Beaufort   29,903

Dorchester   26,665

Lancaster    21,361

Anderson   15,636

Aiken   10,743

 

By Percentage:

Horry  31.6%

Lancaster  27.9%

Berkeley  27.8%

York  24.3%

Jasper  21.3%

Dorchester  19.6%

Beaufort  18.4%

Chalreston  17.5%

Greenville  16% 

Lexington  13.8%

Spartanburg  12.5%

Anderson  8.4%

Richland  8.2%

Kershaw  8.0%

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by distortedlogic

[GvilleSC]

Thanks for pulling all of these stats, and posting them here! In general, I don't see any surprises based on recent trends. Horry continues to explode, and Charleston metro continues to sprawl outward with substantial growth. Does anyone have insight into Horry County's planning and long range grasp on this explosion? I'm afraid it's going to look like central Florida in the most unsustainable way. 

I'm still at a loss for why the midlands have slowed down so drastically. Back in the earlier 2000's, South Carolina's big three (as metropolitan areas) were really all advancing along at a similar pace. To see Richland + Lexington  combined to fall short of growth in Greenville County makes me scratch my head. 

[cabelagent]

8 hours ago, GvilleSC said:

Thanks for pulling all of these stats, and posting them here! In general, I don't see any surprises based on recent trends. Horry continues to explode, and Charleston metro continues to sprawl outward with substantial growth. Does anyone have insight into Horry County's planning and long range grasp on this explosion? I'm afraid it's going to look like central Florida in the most unsustainable way. 

I'm still at a loss for why the midlands have slowed down so drastically. Back in the earlier 2000's, South Carolina's big three (as metropolitan areas) were really all advancing along at a similar pace. To see Richland + Lexington  combined to fall short of growth in Greenville County makes me scratch my head. 

Could more growth in Greenville Co. be attributed to better topography (rolling hills/mtns. & more lakes) , somewhat more pleasant weather, & creation of more jobs (related to BMW & Michelin)? There's a ton of folks traveling between  ATL & CLT that realize the area is attractive  & liveable. Downtown is a big attraction that includes  restaurants, Falls Park & Swamp Rabbit Trail...I should work for Chamber of Commerce. A lot of retirees are relocating here as their children are already working here ( as my neighbor). You probably know what I'm talking about...the area is great.

Edited March 28, 2020 by cabelagent