South Carolina's population growth

[Exile]

13 hours ago, cabelagent said:

Could more growth in Greenville Co. be attributed to better topography (rolling hills/mtns. & more lakes) , somewhat more pleasant weather, & creation of more jobs (related to BMW & Michelin)? There's a ton of folks traveling between  ATL & CLT that realize the area is attractive  & liveable. Downtown is a big attraction that includes  restaurants, Falls Park & Swamp Rabbit Trail...I should work for Chamber of Commerce. A lot of retirees are relocating here as their children are already working here ( as my neighbor). You probably know what I'm talking about...the area is great.

I drive 85 back and forth to Greenville and Atlanta, and on clear days I'm always struck by the way the landscape presents itself. Up near Gaffney, you have all those former peach orchards that afford an open view of the distant mountains over rolling landscape, and southeastward, too. Once you get to Spartanburg, the mountains aren't very distant anymore, and are your constant companion all the way to ~Williamston. Then there's Lake Hartwell. There's nothing comparable along the entire stretch of I-85. The Kings Mountain belt is nice, but blink and you've passed it.

Edited March 29, 2020 by Exile

[distortedlogic]

On 3/28/2020 at 10:58 AM, GvilleSC said:

Thanks for pulling all of these stats, and posting them here! In general, I don't see any surprises based on recent trends. Horry continues to explode, and Charleston metro continues to sprawl outward with substantial growth. Does anyone have insight into Horry County's planning and long range grasp on this explosion? I'm afraid it's going to look like central Florida in the most unsustainable way. 

I'm still at a loss for why the midlands have slowed down so drastically. Back in the earlier 2000's, South Carolina's big three (as metropolitan areas) were really all advancing along at a similar pace. To see Richland + Lexington  combined to fall short of growth in Greenville County makes me scratch my head. 

You're welcome! 

I agree about Horry, I hope they have some serious long range plans. I still cannot figure out the appeal of MYB. If I were going to move to a beach, it would be to a real beach, not to a tourist trap. And I have no idea why a retiree would have any interest in moving there.  Give me Beaufort for a coastal town and Hunting Island or Edisto for a beach. 

I'm also a bit surprised to see Richland's growth has declined so much, and Greenville county (and Horry)  has been out growing both Richland and Lexington (combined) for a number of years now.  I would ike to see the upstate growth slow a bit but that's probably not going to happen. It seems to be pretty hot right now and I can't help but wonder if the cat has escaped the bag (COVID19 notwithstanding). 

[distortedlogic]

Here are the MSA stats:

Greenville-Anderson remains the largest adding 13,449 last year to 920,477

Columbia added 6,743 to 838,433

Charleston-N.Chas added 14,000 to 802,122

MYB added 15,916 to 496,901

Spartanburg added 5,648 to 319,785

Florence lost 125 to 204, 911

 

Gains since 2010:

Chas-N. Chas - 137,515

MYB -                    120,179

Gville-And -       96,365

Spartanburg -   35,478

Columbia -         70,835

Florence -          -751

 

CSA:

GSA now at                                    1,475,235

Cola-Orangeburg-New at         963,048

MYB -Conway at                            559,581

 

Gains since 2010:

 

GSA                138,463

MYB-Con    122,695

Cola-O-N     65,561

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by distortedlogic

[krazeeboi]

On 3/28/2020 at 7:42 PM, cabelagent said:

Could more growth in Greenville Co. be attributed to better topography (rolling hills/mtns. & more lakes) , somewhat more pleasant weather, & creation of more jobs (related to BMW & Michelin)? There's a ton of folks traveling between  ATL & CLT that realize the area is attractive  & liveable. Downtown is a big attraction that includes  restaurants, Falls Park & Swamp Rabbit Trail...I should work for Chamber of Commerce. A lot of retirees are relocating here as their children are already working here ( as my neighbor). You probably know what I'm talking about...the area is great.

Stronger job growth and, to a smaller extent, the appeal to retirees is driving faster growth in the Greenville area. 

The 2019 estimates are the last of the post-recession period which are indicative of how well places have recovered. Census 2020 will mark the beginning of the COVID-19 era and I don't expect trends to hold, at least in the short term. 

[Spartan]

I'd say economic drivers are the main reason. I-85 is the main reason for the Upstate's existence, and Charleston has the coast/culture and port thing going for it. Weather and topography aren't really major factors in where most people end up living. If it were, then nobody would voluntarily live in east Texas. 

 

I think Rich/Lex is in a bit of a longer term lull right now. It's still growing though. Would be interested to compare growth trends over time. Maybe its growing steadily and the others are just picking up steam? Charleston passing Columbia as the states largest city is probably anecdotal evidence of this (annexation laws aside).

[distortedlogic]

Double post.

Edited May 20, 2020 by distortedlogic

[distortedlogic]

City and town estimates for July 2019 to be released Thursday am. They were embargoed today. 

World population review recently updated their estimates and quote "US Census Annual Estimates" as their source.

Here are their numbers (top ten):

Charleston -138,458

Columbia - 133,031

N Charleston - 115,383

My Pleasant - 94,932

Rock Hill - 76,159

Greenville - 71,171

Summerville - 54,198

Goose Creek - 44,227

HHI - 39,721

Sumter - 39,080

Few others:

Spartanburg - 37,812

Florence - 37,567

Greer - 35,892

MYB - 35,760

Anderson - 27,846

Maudlin - 25,327

Simpsonville - 24,593

Lexington - 22,323

 

Link: https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/south-carolina-population/cities/

[GvilleSC]

I'll have to look back at trends and figures, but I'm curious to see a few things over the long term as they relate to principle cities & suburbs:

If Greer may actually pass Spartanburg in the near term. I did not know they were that close in size to one another.

I'm further interested in the Rock Hill, Greenville, and Summerville trends. Is Rock Hill still pulling away, or is Greenville keeping pace or making up ground at all? And, of course, is another Charleston suburb indulging in the uncontrolled sprawl that has taken off in Charleston over the past 10-20 years? Will Summerville's ability to expand to capture new growth  spur their growth at a rate that infill cities can't compete with?

[motonenterprises]

These numbers are fun to look at, but in this state they can be somewhat misleading. Greer almost the size of Spartanburg? Not really. Greer has annexed like crazy and is a burb really. Rock Hill larger than Greenville? Nah. Greenville is the center of a 500k+ county and urban area, and a 920k metro area.

They are good for seeing growth I guess. Glad to finally see Greenville city over 70k, even though I know it's really much larger than that. Seeing Greer at almost 36k and Simpsonville close to 25k is also interesting. I can feel it just riding around the metro area.

[vicupstate]

Mt. Pleasant gained like 5,000 in one year. 

[motonenterprises]

56 minutes ago, vicupstate said:

Mt. Pleasant gained like 5,000 in one year. 

I'm not seeing this I'm the numbers. I could be misreading it I suppose.

[vicupstate]

10 minutes ago, motonenterprises said:

I'm not seeing this I'm the numbers. I could be misreading it I suppose.

On Page 13 of this thread, I posted that Mt. Pleasant had 89,338 in the 2018 estimate. The 2019 number is 94,932. 

[cabelagent]

3 hours ago, motonenterprises said:

These numbers are fun to look at, but in this state they can be somewhat misleading. Greer almost the size of Spartanburg? Not really. Greer has annexed like crazy and is a burb really. Rock Hill larger than Greenville? Nah. Greenville is the center of a 500k+ county and urban area, and a 920k metro area.

They are good for seeing growth I guess. Glad to finally see Greenville city over 70k, even though I know it's really much larger than that. Seeing Greer at almost 36k and Simpsonville close to 25k is also interesting. I can feel it just riding around the metro area.

Hoping Greenville will be 75K+ for 2020 census...if it’s conducted accurately.

Edited May 20, 2020 by cabelagent

[motonenterprises]

44 minutes ago, cabelagent said:

Hoping Greenville will be 75K+ for 2020 census...if it’s conducted accurately.

That would be a healthy jump. Either way, I'm glad to see it's growing and actually like that they're infilling into it's small boundaries. Gives a more urban feel.

[GvilleSC]

59 minutes ago, motonenterprises said:

That would be a healthy jump. Either way, I'm glad to see it's growing and actually like that they're infilling into it's small boundaries. Gives a more urban feel.

Yea -- the development of Verdae contributed significantly to that jump. Verdae will eventually reach its full build out. Not to the same extent, but Unity Park and County Square's redevelopment should help spur further residential growth inside Greenville's city limits during the next decade.

[distortedlogic]

8 hours ago, GvilleSC said:

I'll have to look back at trends and figures, but I'm curious to see a few things over the long term as they relate to principle cities & suburbs:

If Greer may actually pass Spartanburg in the near term. I did not know they were that close in size to one another.

I'm further interested in the Rock Hill, Greenville, and Summerville trends. Is Rock Hill still pulling away, or is Greenville keeping pace or making up ground at all? And, of course, is another Charleston suburb indulging in the uncontrolled sprawl that has taken off in Charleston over the past 10-20 years? Will Summerville's ability to expand to capture new growth  spur their growth at a rate that infill cities can't compete with?

Just based on the estimates looks like RH has grown by roughly 9500 since 2010 and Greenville has grown by 12000 so RH would stay larger for a good while yet. 

Also, RH i s 43 sqmi while Gville is just 29. For comparison,  N Chas is 77 and Mt Pleasant is 52.5.

Well have too see what the numbers look like tomorrow to see if they're pretty close to these.

Edited May 20, 2020 by distortedlogic

[distortedlogic]

On 5/20/2020 at 12:15 AM, distortedlogic said:

City and town estimates for July 2019 to be released Thursday am. They were embargoed today. 

World population review recently updated their estimates and quote "US Census Annual Estimates" as their source.

Here are their numbers (top ten):

Charleston -138,458

Columbia - 133,031

N Charleston - 115,383

My Pleasant - 94,932

Rock Hill - 76,159

Greenville - 71,171

Summerville - 54,198

Goose Creek - 44,227

HHI - 39,721

Sumter - 39,080

Few others:

Spartanburg - 37,812

Florence - 37,567

Greer - 35,892

MYB - 35,760

Anderson - 27,846

Maudlin - 25,327

Simpsonville - 24,593

Lexington - 22,323

 

Link: https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/south-carolina-population/cities/

Ok here are the Census Bureau estimates, they are just a little smaller. I think the other site uses Jan 1 (2020) estimate rather than July 1 2019.  Additions are approx:

 

Charleston - 137,566  + 1400 from 2018

Columbia  - 131, 764   - 1100

N Chas  - 115,382   + 2300

Mt Pleasant  - 91,684  + 1800

Rock Hill  -  75,048  +600

Greenville  -  70,635  +1800

Summerville  -  52,549  +700

Goose Creek  -  43,665  + 800

HHI  -  39,861  +50

Sumter  - 39,642  +42

Florence  -  38,531  +80

Spartanburg  -  37,399  - 180

MYB  -  34,695  + 800

Greer  -  33,373  + 260

Anderson  - 27,676  + 275

Conway  -  25,965  + 900

Bluffton  -  25,557  + 2700

Mauldin  -  25,409  + 150

Simpsonville -  24,221  + 1250

Lexington  -  22,157  + 500

A few others like Easley,  Hannahan, and Moncks Corner continue to grow some as well. 

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2020/subcounty-estimates.html

Edited May 21, 2020 by distortedlogic

[distortedlogic]

• https://www.postandcourier.com/news/census-hanahan-population-soared-mount-pleasants-growth-since-2010-tops-most-us-cities/article_8c0c9d0e-96f2-11ea-bdce-5f808fb38f9c.html

Article from P&C. List of percentages at the bottom. For all cities of 20k+ Fort Mill grew the fastest at 12.7%. Of cities 50k+ Greenville was the highest at 2.6%. 

[Spartan]

Greenville and Spartanburg  are particularly unique in that they are limited in their ability to annex into the urban area around them - not just due to annexation laws, but because they are almost entirely surrounded by developed areas served by MSDs. There isn't a lot of vacant/undeveloped land to annex into, which is what you see in places like Rock Hill, Greer, and all of the Charleston cities.

 

A few thoughts:

• Spartanburg has been doing A LOT of work on itself over the past 10 years, so and it's just a matter of time before that gets reflected in its population count.
• Greenville's population gain over the past 10 years is a testament to good planning and investment in the city's core to create more desirable places to live for the people who live there. When you focus on that, the tourists will come to see what all the fuss is about.
• I think Columbia losing that much ground to Charleston over the past year is particularly interesting because they had been fairly close for most of the past 10-15 years (although Charleston had been gaining).

One thing to keep in mind is that the ACS numbers are just estimates. The 2020 Census numbers are based on a 100% count, so they will be more telling and may change some of the stats (up or down).

 

To be honest, I'm concerned that in the next 10 years, Mt Pleasant or North Charleston will surpass Columbia and Charleston to become the largest municipality in the state. I don't know if any other states have this issue, but IMO it would be incredibly embarrassing.

[GvilleSC]

4 hours ago, Spartan said:

 

To be honest, I'm concerned that in the next 10 years, Mt Pleasant or North Charleston will surpass Columbia and Charleston to become the largest municipality in the state. I don't know if any other states have this issue, but IMO it would be incredibly embarrassing.

First off- I appreciate your thoughts and analysis on everything you posted. I’ll be interested to see how things are revised by the actual census.

 

As to the above quoted statement, I agree that that would be incredibly odd and a travesty to have the state’s largest municipality be a suburb. I’ve actually never even considered it to be a possibility, but you’re totally correct. It’s a very real possibility. I’m really not sure what you could do about it. I mean it’s similaR to the Charlotte larger than Atlanta situation, and the fact that Greenville already sits behind 3 suburbs. Charleston could also combat this to an extent By designating a highrise district and allowing some Increased density. 

[ZUMAN2]

Perhaps I'm being a homer, but I don't see N Charleston surpassing Charleston.    Charleston, although annexations have greatly slowed down, still has thousands of undeveloped acres inside its existing city limits,  not to mention future developments such as Magnolia and Laurel Island.  N Charleston passing Columbia could happen I suppose but that would be closer to the 2030 census.

Really need to first see the 2020 census comes out to get a better picture though.

 

[vicupstate]

I agree it is hard to see N. Charleston passing Charleston, but I could see Mt. P doing so at some future point. 

[erm1981]

16 hours ago, vicupstate said:

I agree it is hard to see N. Charleston passing Charleston, but I could see Mt. P doing so at some future point. 

Okay so I figured I could chime in here to give you guys a Ladson guys perspective.  Most of the growth in Charleston is now occurring around Summerville and Berkley county.  However there are many large apartment complexes being built around North Charleston.  Quite a few are off I-26, and they are building a very large one over near Dorchester Rd. And Cross County Rd.  

I really think the hottest spot in the Charleston metro over the next 10 years will be the Nexton area, especially with Volvo moving in just up the road from there.  Exit 194 area at Jedburg Rd. is booming and they are fixing to widen I-26 through that stretch of road.  Real estate is just much cheaper in this area than around Mount Pleasant or downtown Charleston so there has been some migration within the metro as well.  

I officially live in Ladson, SC which is an unincorporated area between North Charleston / Summerville but has also seen a crazy amount of growth.  Being from Greenville originally I always likened the land in Ladson(palmetto commerce highway) to being similar to the land in Verdae development.  Sitting for all those years and is now getting developed.  

In summary it's very possible that North Charleston might pass Charleston in population which would indeed be strange to look at on paper.  I think Mount P. Is more contained and according to their building department will cap out at around 115,000 people.  We will see and it does seem that most of Mount P.'s growth now is to the north towards Myrtle Beach and also up Highway 41 where a widening project is in the works.  There have also been some fairly large infill projects on Johnny Dodds Blvd. And Coleman Blvd in recent years.  The area is changing rapidly from when I moved here from Greenville 10 years ago.  Almost too much growth really. 

Just a local perspective.  Sorry if I rambled on too much.

16 hours ago, ZUMAN2 said:

Perhaps I'm being a homer, but I don't see N Charleston surpassing Charleston.    Charleston, although annexations have greatly slowed down, still has thousands of undeveloped acres inside its existing city limits,  not to mention future developments such as Magnolia and Laurel Island.  N Charleston passing Columbia could happen I suppose but that would be closer to the 2030 census.

Really need to first see the 2020 census comes out to get a better picture though.

 

^^^This too.  

[Spartan]

Objectively a suburb being the largest municipality doesn't mean anything other than it happens to have the most people. Annexation laws being what they are, it speaks more to how the SC government has designed local government to function (or not). It would just be a weird scenario to have, and for the record I think Mt Pleasant is the most likely contender.

 

In terms of what you can do... probably not much as an individual except for making life choices that are consistent with and that support your views on urban places.

 

That said, y'all know I have railed on MSD's for many years. MSD's are, IMO, one of the biggest problems in South Carolina in terms of local government structure - even more than the annexation laws. These organizations function as de facto fifedoms with little to no oversight or accountability. They are run by boards that pay themselves exorbitant salaries and benefits while providing the minimum amount of service they can get away with. Some of them do a good job, but there is no way to measure the efficacy of the majority of them. They are ostensibly public agencies and are supposed to publish their budgets and proceedings and file reports to some oversight committee in the Senate every year, and they have elected boards. I have researched this in the past and the actual data availability is erratic and inconsistent.  So to sort this out I have a project in mind to set up a website to highlight MSD's in South Carolina, how they function, what they're for, and how they impact urban services in the state. The problem is that it's going to require a lot of legwork, probably tons of FOIA requests, and probably calling politicians and newspapers to get the data needed to develop my database where it needs to be to do any real analysis. Suffice it to say I have not had the time to deal with this, and not being a resident of SC adds a layer too. 

 

 

 

[krazeeboi]

On 5/30/2020 at 2:37 PM, Spartan said:

Objectively a suburb being the largest municipality doesn't mean anything other than it happens to have the most people. Annexation laws being what they are, it speaks more to how the SC government has designed local government to function (or not). It would just be a weird scenario to have, and for the record I think Mt Pleasant is the most likely contender.

 

In terms of what you can do... probably not much as an individual except for making life choices that are consistent with and that support your views on urban places.

 

That said, y'all know I have railed on MSD's for many years. MSD's are, IMO, one of the biggest problems in South Carolina in terms of local government structure - even more than the annexation laws. These organizations function as de facto fifedoms with little to no oversight or accountability. They are run by boards that pay themselves exorbitant salaries and benefits while providing the minimum amount of service they can get away with. Some of them do a good job, but there is no way to measure the efficacy of the majority of them. They are ostensibly public agencies and are supposed to publish their budgets and proceedings and file reports to some oversight committee in the Senate every year, and they have elected boards. I have researched this in the past and the actual data availability is erratic and inconsistent.  So to sort this out I have a project in mind to set up a website to highlight MSD's in South Carolina, how they function, what they're for, and how they impact urban services in the state. The problem is that it's going to require a lot of legwork, probably tons of FOIA requests, and probably calling politicians and newspapers to get the data needed to develop my database where it needs to be to do any real analysis. Suffice it to say I have not had the time to deal with this, and not being a resident of SC adds a layer too. 

 

 

 

It's not a coincidence that higher education basically functions the same way in SC without a Board of Regents in place. The state is a laboratory of waste and inefficiency on these two critical issues and they help explain why neighboring states are ahead in several ways.