South Carolina's population growth

[Spartan]

On 8/17/2021 at 8:33 AM, vicupstate said:

Looking at those numbers, Horry could be the 2nd biggest county by 2030. Richland will probably be 4th by then.  North Charleston will probably be the 2nd largest city by then. 

Greenville city's population has increased pretty much city-wide, but no doubt Verdae and DT/West End  were the biggest components. It has not been thru annexation, for sure. 

Charleston still annexes more than most cities but the 1990-2010 period had a lot more than 2010-2020.  There are huge swaths of land that was annexed during that first period that is not filling out with new construction though.     

 

For the sake of conversation, does Horry County have an "upper limit"? It's a fascinating place mainly because it's a one-horse economy, and aside from the beach and golf, I don't understand why anyone would live there over Florida. 

The Grand Strand is pretty much entirely built out at this point, right?  So, as far as I can tell, the vast majority of the growth has been inland between MB and Conway, and TBH I don't understand why anyone wants to live there. Is the draw to be in new clone snout houses near golf courses really that strong? Also, at what point do Baby Boomers stop moving there to retire (eg: either because there are no more left to retire or because it becomes unattractive for some reason)?  How far inland will people be willing to move before it's not really worth living near Myrtle Beach anymore?

Its easy to look to neighbors for comparison, but both Charleston and even Wilmington have significant non-tourism sectors in their economy. Inland Charleston is driven by real growth in industry. I don't know as much about Wilmington, but I know they have real business downtown and have a small but respectable port operation. Is there a similar situation in Florida? 

[krazeeboi]

I think one of the draws of Myrtle Beach is that it offers a Florida-like experience without having to actually be in Florida which, for one, is more hurricane-prone. Also Myrtle Beach is closer to inland states like Ohio and West Virginia which is where many transplants come from.

[Exile]

On 10/8/2021 at 12:15 PM, krazeeboi said:

I think one of the draws of Myrtle Beach is that it offers a Florida-like experience without having to actually be in Florida which, for one, is more hurricane-prone. Also Myrtle Beach is closer to inland states like Ohio and West Virginia which is where many transplants come from.

That and actual seasons, along with proximity to the mountains, which so many Floridians like to escape to during the summer, anyway. But I take Spartan's point about Horry's probable upper limit.

[goodbye]

The beaches in Florida are superior, especially along the Gulf Coast.  The sand and water are actually beautiful there, unlike Myrtle Beach in my opinion.  But, that is just an opinion and I understand other factors are included in retirement and vacation decisions.

[Spartan]

I agree. I personally don't see the draw to Myrtle Beach. Charleston and the Lowcountry, however, I get.

[rancenc]

Massive development in the works in Horry County that could add to SC population boom!

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2021/11/25/proposed-development-could-bring-nearly-4000-homes-burgess-community/

[vicupstate]

13 counties have less population now than they did in 1940. A 14th, Barnwell, only had a small gain.  Five of them (with 1940 number in pink ) also had a loss of population between 1930 and 1940. 

The state population in 1940 was 1,899,804 and 5,118,425 in 2020. 

 

 

[krazeeboi]

On 1/17/2022 at 1:09 PM, vicupstate said:

13 counties have less population now than they did in 1940. A 14th, Barnwell, only had a small gain.  Five of them (with 1940 number in pink ) also had a loss of population between 1930 and 1940. 

The state population in 1940 was 1,899,804 and 5,118,425 in 2020. 

 

 

The margins are so thin for some of these counties (a difference of only about 1K), it's likely that they technically might not have less residents than they did in 1940 given the margin of error in Census tabulation combined with the impacts of the pandemic.

[GvilleSC]

17 hours ago, krazeeboi said:

The margins are so thin for some of these counties (a difference of only about 1K), it's likely that they technically might not have less residents than they did in 1940 given the margin of error in Census tabulation combined with the impacts of the pandemic.

Perhaps, though the undercounting that is alleged on the national level has not yet been studied on the state level. The point remains either way that these places are not prospering. 

[westsider28]

Census Bureau released 2021 Population Estimates for counties and metro areas. 

Metro data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html  

County data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

Top 10 counties in SC by numerical growth July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021:

County          # Change    Total Pop     Growth Rate

Horry                12,081      (365,579)      3.4%

Greenville        6,854       (533,834)      1.3%

Spartanburg   6,500       (335,864)      2.0%

Lexington         5,246       (300,137)      1.8%

Berkeley           5,133       (236,701)      2.2%

York                     4,696      (288,595)      1.7%

Beaufort           4,057      (191,748)       2.2%

Lancaster         3,684      (100,336)       3.8%

Charleston      3,606      (413,024)       0.9%

Anderson         2,876      (206,908)       1.4%

[vicupstate]

By 2030, Horry would be the 2nd biggest county in the state if the trends continue.  

[distortedlogic]

21 hours ago, westsider28 said:

Census Bureau released 2021 Population Estimates for counties and metro areas. 

Metro data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html  

County data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

Top 10 counties in SC by numerical growth July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021:

County          # Change    Total Pop     Growth Rate

Horry                12,081      (365,579)      3.4%

Greenville        6,854       (533,834)      1.3%

Spartanburg   6,500       (335,864)      2.0%

Lexington         5,246       (300,137)      1.8%

Berkeley           5,133       (236,701)      2.2%

York                     4,696      (288,595)      1.7%

Beaufort           4,057      (191,748)       2.2%

Lancaster         3,684      (100,336)       3.8%

Charleston      3,606      (413,024)       0.9%

Anderson         2,876      (206,908)       1.4%

I find the Greenville county growth number hard to believe. With all the construction and thousands of houses going up EVERYWHERE, I would have thought the number would be much higher. However, if true, I think it would be a good thing to see the growth numbers drop - too much growth too fast is never a positive IMO. Horry can have it.

[krazeeboi]

On 3/11/2022 at 10:23 AM, GvilleSC said:

Perhaps, though the undercounting that is alleged on the national level has not yet been studied on the state level. The point remains either way that these places are not prospering. 

For the most part this is certainly true but Chester's fortunes are certainly changing and I think it's only a matter of time until the megasite in Fairfield County lands a tenant. 

[krazeeboi]

On 3/24/2022 at 1:47 PM, westsider28 said:

Census Bureau released 2021 Population Estimates for counties and metro areas. 

Metro data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html  

County data here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

Top 10 counties in SC by numerical growth July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021:

County          # Change    Total Pop     Growth Rate

Horry                12,081      (365,579)      3.4%

Greenville        6,854       (533,834)      1.3%

Spartanburg   6,500       (335,864)      2.0%

Lexington         5,246       (300,137)      1.8%

Berkeley           5,133       (236,701)      2.2%

York                     4,696      (288,595)      1.7%

Beaufort           4,057      (191,748)       2.2%

Lancaster         3,684      (100,336)       3.8%

Charleston      3,606      (413,024)       0.9%

Anderson         2,876      (206,908)       1.4%

I'm surprised to not see Dorchester in the top 10 this time around. Its growth has cooled off a bit for the time being also.

I'm pretty sure Charleston will overtake Richland by mid-decade to become the state's second most populous county, but both are still a long way off from joining Greenville County in the Half Million Club. 

[Spartan]

On 3/25/2022 at 11:14 AM, distortedlogic said:

I find the Greenville county growth number hard to believe. With all the construction and thousands of houses going up EVERYWHERE, I would have thought the number would be much higher. However, if true, I think it would be a good thing to see the growth numbers drop - too much growth too fast is never a positive IMO. Horry can have it.

6800 people in the course of a year is not an insignificant number. Greenville's growth also includes some high quality urban stuff in the city, which Horry doesn't have. I still think Horry has a de facto carrying capacity due to people only willing to live so far from the beach... but admittedly, I don't understand why people want to live there in the first place. No offense to people from that area haha.

[distortedlogic]

New estimates for July 1, 2021 out. No big surprises, but of note; Greer has passed Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, and Spartanburg. N Chas inches closer towards Cola at 117k to 137k respectfully.  Greenville gained on Rock Hill but still a a few years away from passing it.

Here are some numbers; 2020 Census first, then 2021 estimates.

1. Charleston                  150,903                              151,612

2. Columbia                     137,314                              137,541

3. N Chas                           115,771                              117,472

4. Mt Pleasant                  90,871                                92,398

5. Rock Hill                         74,157                                74,102

6. Greenville                      70,899                                72,095

7. Summerville                 50,010                                 51,216

8. Goose Creek                45,797                                 46,229

9. Sumter                            43,332                                 42,976

10. Florence                     39,919                                  39,958

11. Greer                           35,797                                  38,865

12. Spartanburg             38,531                                  38,401

13. Hilton Head             38,074                                  38,076

14. Myrtle Beach          36,110                                  37,100

15. Bluffton                      28,734                                  32,191          

[vicupstate]

Did Greer have a major annexation?  3,000 people in one year is a LOT. 

[westsider28]

9 hours ago, vicupstate said:

Did Greer have a major annexation?  3,000 people in one year is a LOT. 

It's possible that Greer grew that much in a single year, as they seem to aggressively annex every subdivision they can.  This is in contrast to many cities (Spartanburg, I know for sure) who generally focus on commercial annexation, as that has a net-positive return (SFHs are generally net-negative; they cost more to service than the value of their tax revenue).

Greer also took full advantage of corridor annexation (perhaps more than any city in the state) before that was ruled illegal (~2010?).  They are still able to benefit from the contiguity that those grandfathered "tendrils" enable.  Those tendrils also border a lot of undeveloped land, again in contrast to most cities that are mostly built-out (it's much easier to annex before a subdivision is built than after). 

I'm not exactly sure why so many developers choose to annex into Greer, when most of these developments (at least in Spartanburg County) could be done without annexation.  Anyone have insight into that?

Greer's aggressive annexation and growth is certainly positive for them in the short term, however, the obligations they are taking on to service some of these far-flung areas has the potential to be a burden in the long run.

[vicupstate]

Quote

I'm not exactly sure why so many developers choose to annex into Greer, when most of these developments (at least in Spartanburg County) could be done without annexation.  Anyone have insight into that?

Greer requires annexation to provide sewer service to new subdivisions.  

[distortedlogic]

Not sure about recent annexations but Greer is now listed at 25.5 sq miles; almost as large as Greenville's 29.9 sq. miles. Lol, Greenville should pass the 30 sq mile mark sometime in the next few years I guess; it keeps annexing an acre or two here or there.

Cola is at 139.6. Even if you subtract Fort Jackson's 80 sq miles, it is still nearly 60 sq mi. Charleston is 135 sq mi. N Chas is 81 sq mi, Mt Pleasant is 58.6, and even Rock Hill is over 39. For it's city limit size Greenville does pretty well.

[motonenterprises]

9 hours ago, distortedlogic said:

Not sure about recent annexations but Greer is now listed at 25.5 sq miles; almost as large as Greenville's 29.9 sq. miles. Lol, Greenville should pass the 30 sq mile mark sometime in the next few years I guess; it keeps annexing an acre or two here or there.

Cola is at 139.6. Even if you subtract Fort Jackson's 80 sq miles, it is still nearly 60 sq mi. Charleston is 135 sq mi. N Chas is 81 sq mi, Mt Pleasant is 58.6, and even Rock Hill is over 39. For it's city limit size Greenville does pretty well.

Yep. The city limit population really doesn't do Greenville justice for as big as the true urban area and metro really is. It's flawed at best. And everyone knows that Greer is really not larger than Spartanburg. Crazy what can happen when a place can annex the surrounding areas. Something Greenville can't really do.

[GvilleSC]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:38 PM, distortedlogic said:

New estimates for July 1, 2021 out. No big surprises, but of note; Greer has passed Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, and Spartanburg. N Chas inches closer towards Cola at 117k to 137k respectfully.  Greenville gained on Rock Hill but still a a few years away from passing it.

Here are some numbers; 2020 Census first, then 2021 estimates.

1. Charleston                  150,903                              151,612

2. Columbia                     137,314                              137,541

3. N Chas                           115,771                              117,472

4. Mt Pleasant                  90,871                                92,398

5. Rock Hill                         74,157                                74,102

6. Greenville                      70,899                                72,095

7. Summerville                 50,010                                 51,216

8. Goose Creek                45,797                                 46,229

9. Sumter                            43,332                                 42,976

10. Florence                     39,919                                  39,958

11. Greer                           35,797                                  38,865

12. Spartanburg             38,531                                  38,401

13. Hilton Head             38,074                                  38,076

14. Myrtle Beach          36,110                                  37,100

15. Bluffton                      28,734                                  32,191          

Columbia has me curious about how its growth has tracked with that of the University of SC. Of course, the pandemic could be playing a role here for the 2020 numbers, but that really can't be accounted for. Does anyone have a good read on this? Student housing is and has been certainly increasing in Columbia for a while now, but is that the majority of the city's growth numbers? 

Columbia grew by 7,360 people between 2010 and 2020.

U of SC grew its enrollment by 5,871 between 2010 and 2020 (fall headcount numbers provided by the university). 

[motonenterprises]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:38 PM, distortedlogic said:

New estimates for July 1, 2021 out. No big surprises, but of note; Greer has passed Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, and Spartanburg. N Chas inches closer towards Cola at 117k to 137k respectfully.  Greenville gained on Rock Hill but still a a few years away from passing it.

Here are some numbers; 2020 Census first, then 2021 estimates.

1. Charleston                  150,903                              151,612

2. Columbia                     137,314                              137,541

3. N Chas                           115,771                              117,472

4. Mt Pleasant                  90,871                                92,398

5. Rock Hill                         74,157                                74,102

6. Greenville                      70,899                                72,095

7. Summerville                 50,010                                 51,216

8. Goose Creek                45,797                                 46,229

9. Sumter                            43,332                                 42,976

10. Florence                     39,919                                  39,958

11. Greer                           35,797                                  38,865

12. Spartanburg             38,531                                  38,401

13. Hilton Head             38,074                                  38,076

14. Myrtle Beach          36,110                                  37,100

15. Bluffton                      28,734                                  32,191          

Where do I find these city numbers?

[distortedlogic]

48 minutes ago, motonenterprises said:

Where do I find these city numbers?

Try this

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html

[distortedlogic]

National and State population estimates for July 1 2022 out today.

SC continues to grow rapidly, considering it's small geographic size.

6th in the country in numeric gain with 89,368 and 3rd in percentage growth at 1.7%, which was more than our neighbors of NC and GA.

Total estimated pop was 5,282,634

Top 10 States in Percent Growth: 2021 to 2022
Rank	Geographic Area	April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2021	July 1, 2022	Percent Growth
1	Florida	21,538,226	21,828,069	22,244,823	1.9%
2	Idaho	1,839,092	1,904,314	1,939,033	1.8%
3	South Carolina	5,118,429	5,193,266	5,282,634	1.7%
4	Texas	29,145,428	29,558,864	30,029,572	1.6%
5	South Dakota	886,677	896,164	909,824	1.5%
6	Montana	1,084,197	1,106,227	1,122,867	1.5%
7	Delaware	989,957	1,004,807	1,018,396	1.4%
8	Arizona	7,151,507	7,264,877	7,359,197	1.3%
9	North Carolina	10,439,414	10,565,885	10,698,973	1.3%
10	Utah	3,271,614	3,339,113	3,380,800	1.2%

 

Top 10 States in Numeric Growth: 2021 to 2022
Rank	Geographic Area	April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2021	July 1, 2022	Numeric Growth
1	Texas	29,145,428	29,558,864	30,029,572	470,708
2	Florida	21,538,226	21,828,069	22,244,823	416,754
3	North Carolina	10,439,414	10,565,885	10,698,973	133,088
4	Georgia	10,711,937	10,788,029	10,912,876	124,847
5	Arizona	7,151,507	7,264,877	7,359,197	94,320
6	South Carolina	5,118,429	5,193,266	5,282,634	89,368
7	Tennessee	6,910,786	6,968,351	7,051,339	82,988
8	Washington	7,705,247	7,740,745	7,785,786	45,041
9	Utah	3,271,614	3,339,113	3,380,800	41,687
10	Idaho	1,839,092	1,904,314	1,939,033	34,719