Oil at $200/Barrel

[Captain Worley]

Soviet steel in the mid seventies was procesed poorly and had contaminants in it. It was well known at the time that it had a higher propensity towards rust.

I will concede that FIAT's manufacturing processes of the era weren't top notch.

304 stainless WILL rust.

[monsoon]

More proof that oil prices are rising mostly due to the worthless American dollar. It should be noted that Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard in the early 70s. Starting in 2001, the Bush administration started borrowing unprecedented amounts of money, most of it foreign debt, and compensated by keeping interest rates too low, (achieved by printing money). You can see where these two events coincide exactly with oil pricing.

[sean]

Supply is being outpaced by demand. Graph out how many barrels were produced in each of the last ten years. Now examine the demand for the past decade... uh oh!

[Gard]

More proof that oil prices are rising mostly due to the worthless American dollar.

Indeed it is. The more the fed cuts interest rates, the worse of an effect oil has on our economy. I really think that the best way to go forward is to RAISE interest rates. Raising interest rates would let the dollar rise and thus, decrease the impact of oil prices on our economy. A decrease in impact would keep more money in consumer's pockets that is going to gas now and could help stabilize families. While an increase in interest rate could affect the housing market and credit card rates, I believe that we can fix those much easier than we can fix the effects of a dollar that is weak globally. On top of that, there are also people who are only hurting because of high gas prices. Ease that concern and you could lift a huge burden on a number of people as well. While increased gas prices have certainly helped increase mass transit useage, those who live in areas with little or no mass transit (eyes his own city) don't have much of a choice but to drive most places.

[suburban george3]

GM has announced that due to prolonged increases in oil/gas prices that they will shutter 4 Truck/SUV plants in Ohio, Wisconsin, Ontaria, and Mexico. This will reduce production capability of these behemoths by 700,000 units per year. They have declared the era of the SUV over as Americans flock to small cars in record numbers.

Further evidence of this is in May auto sales numbers, for the first time since 1992 a car has outsold the Ford F-series. The Honda Civic took top place for US auto sales last month selling 53,299 units, an increase of 28.3%. The Toyota Corolla was second selling 52,826, a 12.4% increase. The F-series sales plummeted to 5th place selling only 42,973 units, a decrease of 30.6%.

The other large truck in the top ten, the Silverado, took a bigger plunge selling only 37,020 units. A decrease of 42%.

The top ten for May auto sales in the US:

1. Honda Civic 53,299 +28.3%

2. Toyota Corolla 52,826 +12.4%

3. Toyota Camry 51,291 -1.5%

4. Honda Accord 43,728 +31.9%

5. Ford F-Series 42,973 -30.6%

6. Chevy Silverado 37,020 -42.0%

7. Nissan Altima 34,428 +38.3%

8. Ford Focus 32,579 +53.2%

9. Chevrolet Cobalt 26,702 +19.2%

10. Chevrolet Impala 23,803 -33.3%

General Motors board also approved retooling of one plant to build the Chevrolet Volt, an plug in electric hybrid able to go 40 miles on pure electric, then switching between gas/electric. It has a promised efficiency of 150mpg. They plan to have it on sale by 2010 and sell around 100,000 units. It's a sharp looking car (I saw it at the auto show and I'll post a pic later), but no price point has been announced and there are questions if they can make the battery last the average lifetime of the car.

[Neo]

The Chevy Volt:

This is a sharp looking car IMO and something I didn't expect to see from GM. I wonder if this will directly push Toyota to allow their Prius to be plugged in without a hack?

[Captain Worley]

The Volt lost it's long hood and wheel bulges for aerdynamics. Pictures I've seen on some of the car message boards make it look a lot more like the Prius. Supposedly, it is going to be about $40K, but GM is lobbying for tax credits so that it ends up being around $30K with subsideis.

Last I heard, production was to start in 2010, so it looks like it'll be a 2011 model.

[Gard]

Yeah I was reading about this car the other day, really cool stuff. I hope that GM's push to get this car out on the streets ASAP forces Ford and others to do the same to keep up and hopefully touch off a hybrid war, which would no doubt benefit consumers.

[monsoon]

I believe this is the first "series hybrid" to go into production. Everything on the road today, except for maybe the first Honda hybrid are known as "parallel hybrids" which are not nearly as fuel efficient and which vary wildly in fuel savings depending upon implementation.

[sean]

In regards to the Volt, what is the source for the electricity?

[Gard]

In regards to the Volt, what is the source for the electricity?

It gets plugged into the wall. There is an electrical cord in the picture coming out of it...

[suburban george3]

In regards to the Volt, what is the source for the electricity?

It plugs into a wall outlet at your home, and while driving it also recharges the batteries. The batteries are lithium-ion.

There is an enthusiasts website for the Volt here.

[sean]

So will we build more nuclear plants or burn more coal to get the needed electricity... ?

[monsoon]

So will we build more nuclear plants or burn more coal to get the needed electricity... ?

Most likely but at a macro level this would be hugely efficient compared to what we have now. Only 3% of the energy in gasoline is used to actually move the car. The rest gets wasted. And this doesn't even take into account the energy required to transport it 1/2 around the world.

In comparison an electric motor is somewhere around 95%-98% efficient. That means that almost all of the energy gets converted to motive power. If most of the users of the volt stay under the 40 mile no gas burned daily limit, it will mean a huge energy and carbon savings in the USA even if they have to built some additional power plants to supply power. (and of course some of the electricity could come from renewable sources too)

[Captain Worley]

The Volt can be plugged into the wall to recharge the batteries. It also has an onboard generator, which is E85 capable, to recharge the batteries, should they need it while driving. The European version has a deisel generator, I'm not sure why that isn't being offered here. May change as production gets nearer.

[sean]

Only 3% of the energy in gasoline is used to actually move the car. The rest gets wasted.

Really? I don't mean to sound incredulous; I'm just surprised that our whole platform of mobility is THAT inefficient!

Nuclear power plants take a long time to come online and the scale of production to meet our motoring demand is daunting... looks like we'll be backed into a wall and will have to burn lots (LOTS!) of coal.

[Neo]

Really? I don't mean to sound incredulous; I'm just surprised that our whole platform of mobility is THAT inefficient!

Actually, it is true that it is THAT inefficient. Think about it, your engine is still running and burning gas when you're applying your brake, or at a stop light or stop sign, etc. However, the 3% isn't being entirely truthful since much of it is wasted in moving the actual vehicle. The 3% is probably the only amount of energy used to move the PERSON, but you've still got to move what you're sitting in so you can't include that in energy wasted.

Even given that though, a ton of energy is wasted with fossil fuels as opposed to electric engines since they are able to shut off quickly and efficiently.

[richyb83]

Someone help me out here; please correct me if I'm wrong?? Has oil been as high as $135 per barrel?? Hasn't it dropped down some to $122 as of yesterday? My limited understanding gas prices should go down maybe 15 cents a gallon huh?? Is it just too unsteady; so gas prices have just leveled off??

I realize China and India make up nearly 40% of the planet's population so consumption/demand will only go up?

[Captain Worley]

"Really? I don't mean to sound incredulous; I'm just surprised that our whole platform of mobility is THAT inefficient!"

Depends on the way you set up the system boundaries and what you are measuring. The numbers that I recall from ICE engineering calss are 30-40% for gas and diesel. 95-98% for electric using the same comparison.

And here's something interesting, using steam, using the same conditions is 8% efficient. That's why diesel took over the locomotive industries so quicky.

[swh1972]

Someone help me out here; please correct me if I'm wrong?? Has oil been as high as $135 per barrel?? Hasn't it dropped down some to $122 as of yesterday? My limited understanding gas prices should go down maybe 15 cents a gallon huh?? Is it just too unsteady; so gas prices have just leveled off??

Oil was briefly up to at least $135 and maybe hit $136, and is now over $126. The phenominon you describe is one of the criticisms many people have with the pricing of gasoline. The gas in the stations has already been paid for, it is assumed, so the price of oil today should not have an impact on the cost of that gasoline, yet stations tend to up their prices in line with the rising cost of oil futures (that have not yet been delivered). The lowering of the prices also never seems to happen with the same speed that the raising of prices does.

Edit: Oil is now at $128...up about $5.50 today.

[monsoon]

Depends on the way you set up the system boundaries and what you are measuring. The numbers that I recall from ICE engineering calss are 30-40% for gas and diesel. 95-98% for electric using the same comparison.

From an engineering perspective only 3% of the available energy in gasoline is converted to motive power in the internal combustion engine powered vehicle. The rest is turned into heat that gets expelled through the exhaust or has to be mitigated through the radiator. If this is difficult to understand, look at what happens to an internal combustion engine if you were to turn off the water pump that moves water through the radiator. The engine would quickly over heat and eventually be permanently damaged from the thermal changes placed on the cast iron and other metal caused by burning the gasoline. In comparison, an electric motor does not require any cooling mechanisms. (in almost all cases)

The ICE is a heat engine. Heat is a very bad way to create mechanical force. An electric motor does not use heat to generate mechanical force.

The best engineered internal combustion engines can achieve an efficiency of about 20%. This is when every trick in the book is used that really isn't present on most vehicles. When you marry it to a vehicle and include the losses due to a transmission that has to be included so that the engine can rev up without choking off and other considerations, you end up with a vehicle, on average that uses about 3% of the energy to actually move the vehicle. It's horribly inefficient.

[Captain Worley]

Sigh.

As I've said before, it depends on where you draw the system boundaries, and what you are measuring. Compared at the output shaft at constant speed, the numbers I quoted are valid.

And, almost every electric motor over 3/4 hp has a fan on the opposite end of the output shaft. Over 2hp, they generally have cooling fins in addition. I specified fan motors in this range for years.

Additionally, an electric motor relies on energy that is generated somewhere, usually by coal, in this country.

[monsoon]

....Compared at the output shaft at constant speed, the numbers I quoted are valid.....

No car in the world moves at constant speed so it is an irrelevant point. The entire design of a ICE powered car is based on the fact that you need to start at 0 speed which a ICE can't handle. It's why there is a transmission in the car to get you up to speed.

Sigh.....

I am assuming you posted this to make some kind of point about credibility. Sorry we don't do that here.

[swh1972]

Not really much to say here...but an analyst at Morgan Stanley this morning predicted Oil would spike to $150 per barrel by July 4th, and prices in turn, have risen over $10 per barrel to record highs of $139.

[Gusterfell]

^Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy. This statement alone caused prices to stop easing and shoot back up to new records.