Oil at $200/Barrel

[monsoon]

Just curious, what is the size of your garden, how much time did you spend setting it up, and how much time a week do you have to tend it?

I've been giving this some thought since the bahaia took ove the back yard, but the soil is very sandy.

It started years ago in a few planters. From there it went to 6 4x4 beds created by cuttng 6x8 wood in half and making a raised bed boxes. These were filled with top soil. After a few years of that I decided to expand again so I removed the boxes and created a more of less permanent garden area by using 12" square concrete pavers to form an approximate 25' by 25' square. The native soil here is hard red clay, which is not that good for planting so over the years we have added soil and compost which has resulted in a fairly nice environment for planting. I am using the more traditional rows and some hills to plant things which I rotate orientation each year.

From a time perspective, not counting the creation part, its no more than 2-3 hours each week to maintain. It also usually takes a weekends worth of work 2-3 times/year to do planting, cleanup, and prep work. I do have a tiller (bought at an estate auction) which helps a great deal with that part.

Forgetting that these are better tasting, better quality, and safe vegetables, I think I am helping with the oil situation because I am not purchasing sick vegetables from the grocery store which most likely, were shipped 1/2 way across the world at the cost of great deals of petroleum being used up. And aside from about the quart/year of gasoline I use in the tiller, there is no high energy costs in the production either. People were asked to plant victory gardens in during WWII because it preserved fuel for the war effort, and I think the same idea could be used now to reduce oil consumption.

[Captain Worley]

Thanks for the info...maybe we need a Victory Garden thread.

[Neo]

If anyone has any further questions regarding gardening specifically that is unrelated to the rising cost of oil then please continue conversation by starting a new thread in UP's TreeHugger's Lounge forum:

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/Treehugg...ounge-f295.html

[Captain Worley]

Lately I've been seeing a HUGE increase n the number of sub 50cc scooters on the road. Most of them are piloted by college students from the local university, but I'm seeing more and more older guys on them. Sadly, most of them (the scooters, not the riders) are made in China.

[monsoon]

I think the only vehicles of this type still made in the USA are Harley Davidson motorcycle. The rest are Asian with possibly the very rare German BMW motorcycle. Harley Davidson has a big problem, say like Buick or Cadillac, in that they are mostly driven by a very old demographic.

[Captain Worley]

Harley makes a 50cc scooter? Gotta be a captive import.

As for motorcycles, yeah, I'm seeing more of those, too. An awful lot of 250 Ninjas (they're pretty inexpensive) and, oddly enough, a fair number of Ducatis. If I wasn't convinced they were death on wheels, I'd really be interested in the 250 Ninja.

I don't think a whole lot of people older than thirty will ditch their cars for two wheeled transportation, although the younger demographic seems to be more likely to do so.

[monsoon]

8 hours over how many days? I am not so sure local gardening is really all that more helpful. Not every place in this country is particularly good for growing. And all those small gardeners with all their fertilizers and tilling, etc. isn't controlled. I think there is a certain amount of inefficiency that comes from that type of gardening. The product is better, I agree, but I am not sure more efficient....

If you garden as I described above it is hugely efficient in terms of fossil fuels being burnt. I think I read a statistic that said the food production system in this country was responsible for 30% of the oil being consumed. If you don't want to grow it yourself, then at least try to buy from local farmer's markets (the authentic ones) and stick to seasonal vegetables if you have to purchase from a supermarket.

[Gard]

The media all over is reporting today that the Saudis are going start pumping 500,000 more barrels of oil a day. I'm interested to so how much, if any real, impact it will have on prices. On analyst speculated that they could be worried that if oil goes too high, the industry could collapse amid anger around the world at the high prices, which would be a huge blow to their economy. I think we are beginning to see that some of the key players in oil are getting worried of a oil bubble bust and are going to start taking steps to prevent the oil industry from overheating and collapsing. Two sayings come to mind in this situation...

"what goes up, must come down" and "the bigger they are, the harder they fall."

[monsoon]

^None. The price increases we are seeing are not related to shortages. It's being caused by the failed Bush economic policy that has made the dollar worthless.

[Gard]

Failed Bush policies are only 1 portion of the problem. Problems like oil never have just one source, there are always a dozen other things contributing. While Bush's policies have made it rise faster than it should, it would have risen despite that, though at a slower rate. The best thing that can be done right now to cut the speed at which its rising by raising interest rates so that the dollar rises against other major currencies and ban speculation of the oil market. Speculators at one time were not allowed to do so on the oil market and we really need to ban it again. The Senate is looking into the speculators now fortunately on both oil and food, so we could see some action against them in time for the elections. Here is an article on the Senate looking into it:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/20/news/econo...sion=2008052016

If you look at the international news, Europe is paying around $9/gallon now and other countries like Indonesia are cutting their subsidy because they can no longer afford to subsidize at the rate they are. Meanwhile, China reported they are purchasing 5% more oil now due to the increased need resulting from the earthquakes there. There have also been strikes in Spain over the price of gas.

[Raintree21]

I totally agree with that. Probably the number one reason for current high oil prices are unregulated market speculators driving the prices skyward.

[sean]

^Is unregulated market speculators the same thing as free market speculators?

[monsoon]

..... The Senate is looking into the speculators now fortunately on both oil and food, so we could see some action against them in time for the elections. Here is an article on the Senate looking into it:

.....

There is little the Senate can do about speculation since much of it is taking place outside of the USA. The basic problem facing the USA is a dollar that has become worthless from too much federal deficit spending and then trying to cover up the effects of that by printing more money. (how interest rates are lowered) It's a zero sum game, and in this game when that happens, the dollar tanks. If you plot the price of oil vs the price of gold, the has been remarkably little change because gold holds its real value.

We are being led to believe that it is related to China and India buying more oil and while that might have an effect of prices if there were really shortages, there are not any. China is having no problem paying subsidies for people increase consumption of fuel.

The only way the USA is going to get out of this is to 1. Stop the deficit spending, 2. stop borrowing money from foreign sources, and 3. raise interest rates (greatly).

[sean]

The only way the USA is going to get out of this is to 1. Stop the deficit spending, 2. stop borrowing money from foreign sources,...

What about the stimulus checks that everybody is receiving?

[monsoon]

What about the stimulus checks that everybody is receiving?

What about them?

[nowensone]

If you look at the international news, Europe is paying around $9/gallon now and other countries like Indonesia are cutting their subsidy because they can no longer afford to subsidize at the rate they are. Meanwhile, China reported they are purchasing 5% more oil now due to the increased need resulting from the earthquakes there. There have also been strikes in Spain over the price of gas.

I think it's interesting that the US may unwittingly be the force of invention for the world once again (of course out of necessity and not good sense) in breaking the oil "barrier" and making a much better electric car, or some other breakthrough. Europeans could have been working on this, but have smaller denser countries with good mass transit networks, and so not as much of a dire need. Ditto Japan. Only in the US with it's huge size and out of control sprawl will this be a life or death situation.

I believe market speculation is really at the root of the whole economic situation. At the risk of sounding a bit radical, I think we have so let the market become a major force in valuing companies, driving loan rates and company profits, that the effect of the consumer, supply, demand, and product have become secondary to gambling over what will happen next to the market prices. It's no longer in a companies best interest to provide a good product, it's in the companies best interest to drive marketplace speculation about the company. The price of our commodities no longer is based upon factors surrounding the commodity, but what kind of sentiment people feel towards that commodity and how much people are willing to gamble with the price. Supply and Demand are just indirect influential factors instead of driving forces. The cost of crude needs to be better tied in with true supply and demand.

Doesn't sound that radical to me, but not sure how much effect that would have on oil as it has been treated much like the diamond industry in limiting output. Saudi Arabia's 500K additional output is more of a feel-good news bite than anything real, otherwise they would seriously vamp up operations if they were serious.

"Supply and Demand are just indirect influential factors instead of driving forces." - good statement. Certainly applies to some industries.

[Cadeho]

Oil prices are making everything go up... food, postage, airlines, electricity... and if ever gas goes down, why do I have a feeling the rest of the stuff will stay up? What will happen when no one can afford anything? Corporate America's too busy saving money for their CEOs instead of helping their employees stay afloat.

[dxartist]

What about the stimulus checks that everybody is receiving?

we are borrowing that too

[sean]

^worse than that, it appears that the Treasury is just printing the monies.

[swh1972]

March 2008 Oil Futures closed out at $100.86 and July 2008 Futures are currently trading at $134.51. (Up 33.3%)

The value of the dollar vs. the EURO in that same period dropped about 2%.

I agree that the value of the dollar is an input into the price of oil, but to say it is the main cause is not supported by the numbers.

[sean]

Who do you trust? Who do you think is qualified with regard to the technical nature of worldwide crude oil extraction?

T. Boone Pickens gave testimony to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee today and basically said that world crude production has peaked.

Many folks here on UP say this is an 'oil bubble' and that the devalued dollar combined with speculator's profiteering is the reason we are seeing high oil prices.

[nowensone]

Who do you trust? Who do you think is qualified with regard to the technical nature of worldwide crude oil extraction?

T. Boone Pickens gave testimony to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee today and basically said that world crude production has peaked.

Many folks here on UP say this is an 'oil bubble' and that the devalued dollar combined with speculator's profiteering is the reason we are seeing high oil prices.

Post the relevant piece of the transcript if you can, depends on how he stated this, context, etc. But if I remember what I have read correctly, this is one of those areas where experts usually concede that we don't have the ability to predict this accurately without mapping (usually drilling) the entire planet.

[Neo]

Who do you trust? Who do you think is qualified with regard to the technical nature of worldwide crude oil extraction?

T. Boone Pickens gave testimony to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee today and basically said that world crude production has peaked.

Many folks here on UP say this is an 'oil bubble' and that the devalued dollar combined with speculator's profiteering is the reason we are seeing high oil prices.

I'm not sure I believe that the dollar is the leading reason we're seeing high prices but I'm not sure peak oil being a reality is the reason either. Every analyst has their own prediction, some say it is now or will be here within a few years and some don't expect it until 2030. Oil price predictions are historically not very good however...those that believe otherwise should take a look at the following chart:

For a real shocker take a look at this chart showing the price per barrel of oil since 1Q 2006:

[Justadude]

Let's go with the conservative estimate and say that peak oil will occur in 2030. That's only 20 years away! We are sitting ducks if that turns out to be a reality... the number of fuel-efficient vehicles is growing but still only a tiny fraction of the overall fleet. There are cars being produced today that will still be on the road in 2030 -- how many of those are SUVs or large trucks? -- and public transit in most cities is a joke. We would have to make quick, dramatic changes in order to prepare for a sharp decline in oil production. Frankly I don't see the political or corporate will to make it happen, regardless of what warning signs are beginning to appear. We are truly screwed if this is the Beginning Of The End in regard to oil production.

[nowensone]

I was surprised to read this, very well written considering the current state of journalism...

Yahoo Finance - American dream dead?

Relevant points: Automobile-driven American dream; falacy of never ending rise in quality of life; income levels peaked decades ago; dangers of other massive countries comsuming at the rates we do; any per capita income level beyond $12,000 does not correspond to increased happiness (that one was not exactly explained though); etc.