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Providence Population Growth


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ruchele, I really don't know what you want me to prove.. Is the governor being anecdotal? Why the staunch disagreement?

Do my personal experiences in some way cheapen stats and facts? If thats the case I'm sorry I offered them up..

I haven't seen any story any fact to show me otherwise.. I understand people here tend to lean (violently in some cases) left, but seriously.. And that fact alone makes for a very difficult audience on this topic..

But do you really think this? Do you really think these programs operate efficiently? Do we live in the same world, city? I consider myself relatively open minded, take things at face value, and generate an opinion.. And I cannot fathom how people think social programs in their current state are good..

And for the record, the Carpionato/Tort Fruit thing is worse than wellie cheating.. Just to be clear.. (And not be called a republican cleverly disguised as a libertarian as some have so graciously accused before)

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Sorry for the unabridged consultant speak. I should have included this link to Wikipedia.

Six Sigma is a process for quality management developed at Motorola in the 1980s building on the work of Edwards Deming. The results of the six sigma approach generally introduce radical or 'disruptive' cultural change into the organization that implements it. As a result, much of actual six sigma work is about managing the process of change, and that's the context I'm using here.

Basically, disruptive transitions are not smooth or easy or fun for the vast majority of the organization. The process is generally represented graphically by an exponential curve that starts by going down about 10% before it goes up, way up. When the process starts and the initial move is to the downside, people freak out and bum out. They think the change will be for the worse, that the org is going to hell in a handbasket, etc. (Blackbelts are experts in transitional management who generally guard the window during this phase to prevent jumpers!)

This dip is known as the Valley of Despair and the very bottom point is Pity City.

My argument is that the overall RI economy is in such a disruptive transition. Manufacturing, as we've known it, is dead. Another one bites the dust in W. Warwick this very day. Our new engine will be innovative/creative in nature. Our natural resource to exploit is the colleges. Again, Maeda is HUGE in this space.

Anecdotal example: there's an old webbing mill in state somewhere that's actually expanding because they're now in the steep part of the growth curve. They don't make generalized webbing, but medical grade woven tubing. It was a conscious decision to reach up to the very highest levels of manufacturing, and they need highly qualified, highly trained employees. Do you want a tube inserted into your heart that was made in China? Similarly, Quaker Fabrics main building is being reopened by Canadian company to do prototyping and super-high-end textile work. Again, the kind of thing you can't send to the lowest bidder.

Long story short: what we're seeing now is what you get at the low point in the process. But it's a steep ride up from here. So RE: welfare, as Ankie says, more jobs means fewer people on assistance, lower case loads, etc.

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I am a Six Sigma Black Belt and while I would love to buy your argument, speck, my own feeling is that the people running this state (outside of Carcieri) are not the kind of change agents that would push the kind of reform that makes your analogy accurate.

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Six Sigma is a process for quality management developed at Motorola in the 1980s building on the work of Edwards Deming. The results of the six sigma approach generally introduce radical or 'disruptive' cultural change into the organization that implements it. As a result, much of actual six sigma work is about managing the process of change, and that's the context I'm using here.

Basically, disruptive transitions are not smooth or easy or fun for the vast majority of the organization. The process is generally represented graphically by an exponential curve that starts by going down about 10% before it goes up, way up. When the process starts and the initial move is to the downside, people freak out and bum out. They think the change will be for the worse, that the org is going to hell in a handbasket, etc. (Blackbelts are experts in transitional management who generally guard the window during this phase to prevent jumpers!)

This dip is known as the Valley of Despair and the very bottom point is Pity City.

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One quick point... It is fact that the more cash and food stamps issued by a state the more federal funding it gets... Therefore, it is in the best interest of social workers and the program to offer more welfare.. Jenkins, I would like your opinion on this, working for MA.. I feel that the states are "competing" for federal dollars..

The other point is.. For some reason, people seem to think that deficit spending is a good thing, that spending on welfare programs is good for the economy.. Its a chocolate chip cookie, a hit of crack, a short term positive blip.. Its that mentality that makes me understand why people don't understand the negative.. Its a ponzi scheme; a pipe dream.. At some point the piper comes..

So on that point, I understand your confusion as to how you think welfare is good for the economy.. Unfortunately, the piper visits the middle class.. I'm very familiar with him.. His name is Samuel.. He visits my paycheck every month..

I simply feel that middle america has no connection to where and who social programs supports.. They are out of touch with the end client, so to speak.. Thats it.. I'm middle america's eyes and ears to the end client.. Not people in here on UP, regular tax paying people.. Maybe that needed clarification..

So you get healthcare assistance, so what.. I'm not talking about you.. Its not personal.. I've never met you.. I hold no ill will..

For the record, I currently accept no money from Section 8.. Not that I wouldn't; I stated that before.. I just don't think it is worth it, but thats just me... TheAnk is anti-RI Housing, staunchly..

And yes, that was whole point fryguy.. More jobs, less free money.. Less people, in theory, that NEED it..

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I simply feel that middle america has no connection to where and who social programs supports.. They are out of touch with the end client, so to speak.. Thats it.. I'm middle america's eyes and ears to the end client.. Not people in here on UP, regular tax paying people.. Maybe that needed clarification..

So you get healthcare assistance, so what.. I'm not talking about you.. Its not personal..

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Oh, I completely understand that you're not talking about me, and that it's not personal. But here's the thing- I am the end client, as are a couple of other people on this board. I don't make your case very well, though, because it's hard to get "middle america" good and scared of me. There are so many other people out there that middle america is already inclined to be scared of, so you're smart to stick to them as your "welfare collector" poster children.
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RI spends more per capita on fire protection than any other state in the nation. It beats the next state by something like 40% (and this was the case before the station fire). I believe that Cranston has the most firemen per capita of any municipality in America. Second? Providence. For EVERY ambulance call, a full fire truck is dispatched. EVERY SINGLE ONE, no matter what it is. Wow, that seems like a lot of petrol spent for something 2 EMT's could very easily deal with.
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My opinion is we attract the wrong people to our state.. Cicilline and Esserman are huge positives, our bleeding welfare state is a big negative.. Prove me wrong ruchele.. Make me understand.. Your educated banter is appreciated.. Unlike you, if presented with a rational argument, my views can change and often do..

http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/...yne.117d76.html

Rhode Island offers the most generous welfare benefits in the nation (source: Governor's fiscal-2005 budget). We also do the worst job of any state at getting people off welfare (source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services).

As a result, in fiscal 2003 only two states spent a higher proportion of their budget than Rhode Island on Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Act (TANF) and other cash welfare payments (source: National Association of State Budget Officers).

Moreover, in 2000 Rhode Island had the second-highest percentage of households receiving TANF. In short, we have an expensive welfare system that attracts more poor people than do other states' systems, and more of the most difficult cases.

I patiently await your retort.. Or you can just call me a racist, thinly veiled like the last time.. Up to you.. Or lets have an educated discussion... Your choice..

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In 2000, we're at the top in terms of % of households on assistance. In 2007, we're 17th in % of population participating in the workforce. WTF? Has there been some sea-change?

No. It's probably closest to reality to say that both of those statistics were generated with a particular goal in mind to make a particular case, but both have some level of truth to them. I note that 'your' stat doesn't differentiate between what kind of assistance people receive while 'my' stat doesn't differentiate between what kind of jobs people have. It would be really great to have access to the raw data, so that intelligent, inquiring minds -- like ALL the people here have -- would be able to draw their own conclusions.

I'm sure you know the expression, Ank: lies, damn lies and statistics. So let's try to move this forward.

When I pull together these contradictory stats with what I'd like to call the "Ruchele Experience," I see a picture. And it ain't pretty. It seems to me that there's a pretty good number of people who are BOTH working AND on assistance. Not good.

I'm sure that most everybody here would agree that having a lot of people who need assistance to survive is not a good thing. It's a net drag on the economy, even though (you should admit and this is all that whoever was saying) the money paid out doesn't disappear but goes into the economy. The ROI is negative, but it's not zero.

So what's the solution?

Our cost of living is high, and the easily-created, easily-filled service sector jobs don't pay enough to support a more-or-less normal family life. My low-end BC/BS family health insurance policy is over $500/month. That's a week, a day and 2 hours at $10/hr. A two-bedroom for $800/month and that's the entire month's take home. At minimum wage, fugettaboutit. Hence the working and getting assistance conundrum.

These jobs are for teen-agers and 20-somethings living 6-to-a-flat. (Oh, the memories!)

What we need isn't JUST jobs, but good jobs. Good jobs are hard to create, and even harder to fill. So really, to make any kind of a dent in this problems (and I agree it's a problem) we need invest in training and adult education.

Now if somebody could find a way to tie these two things together, then I think we'd be getting somewhere. For example, what if - as an alternative to welfare - there were a program where under-educated young single mothers got paid to go a place where the kids could get Headstart type stuff while the moms got training. You'd have to have a GED program as the first level and then move from there. (Personally, I'd also require a course on early childhood development. IMO, better parent make better kids and that makes better schools.)

Would you save money? No, you'd probably spend more. But the ROI would be through the roof. Better educated mom get better job, sets the better example and (hopefully) breaks the chain of poverty. Money well spent.

I'm sure this 'big government program' goes badly against your grain, but do you have a better alternative? Please don't say "just cut 'em off and let 'em sink or swim on their own." It's really not a solution.

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