Who is going to buy all the Condos, (Part II)

[KJHburg]

from a conference of multifamily investors in the southeast talking about their favorite markets and those that show the most promise.  4 Carolina markets are mentioned.

http://rebusinessonline.com/multifamily-developers-investors-reveal-favorite-southeast-markets/

[Hushpuppy321]

21 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

from a conference of multifamily investors in the southeast talking about their favorite markets and those that show the most promise.  4 Carolina markets are mentioned.

http://rebusinessonline.com/multifamily-developers-investors-reveal-favorite-southeast-markets/

I like how the moderator of JLL picked out Charlotte as the stronger of the Two (2) NC Markets (CLT & RDU) for multi-family.  The mixture of Job Growth/Corporate Relocations & Connectivity to Mass Transit has really begun to create an Urban fabric in Close-In Charlotte Neighborhoods that’s generating its own Gravity - like a black hole sucking in more people and jobs and retail and density, etc.   

Its pretty exciting - I think the Triangle area really missed an opportunity to invest in fixed Rail Mass Transit.  

[kermit]

1 hour ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

I think the Triangle area really missed an opportunity to invest in fixed Rail Mass Transit.  

I completely agree. I have family there and am back regularly. The current level of traffic in the region makes its current growth rate feel unsustainable. I am concerned that they will hit a wall soon which may lead to jobs moving away from the area. While we certainly don't have great transit, the availability of some alternatives to driving will make a huge difference in job growth. The Triangle really needs to get a plan moving or it will hit a job growth wall.

Edited December 19, 2019 by kermit

[KJHburg]

this is about apartments in Charlotte from WBTV reporter

David Hodges

 

@hodgesreporting

·

 

On apartments: Rents are rising faster than inflation which is a sign that it’s not overbuilt yet. Vacancy rate is lowest it’s been in 35 years. Translation for Charlotte - keep expecting apartment construction and don’t hold your breath on rent dropping.

[KJHburg]

we entered this lockdown period with a very low inventory market of for sale homes, townhomes, and condos and it is continuing.  Homes are selling quickly especially in the below $300K price range and all price ranges but as it is goes higher and higher it does get slower.  I am predicting a slow down of price increases except in the lower price ranges.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by KJHburg

[TCLT]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

we entered this lockdown period with a very low inventory market of for sale homes, townhomes, and condos and it is continuing.  Homes are selling quickly especially in the below $300K price range and all price ranges but as it is goes higher and higher it does get slower.  I am predicting a slow down of price increases except in the lower price ranges.

 

 

Can anyone explain what the Inventory of Homes number means? Is that in thousands of dollars? Something else?

Edit: Never mind. I found the data. It should be a count, not currency. There's 7556 homes for sale in the Charlotte region. You can also find links to data for all the individual counties and cities in the region here.

Edited May 11, 2020 by TCLT
Answered my own question.

[KJHburg]

1 hour ago, TCLT said:

Can anyone explain what the Inventory of Homes number means? Is that in thousands of dollars? Something else?

Edit: Never mind. I found the data. It should be a count, not currency. There's 7556 homes for sale in the Charlotte region. You can also find links to data for all the individual counties and cities in the region here.

1.9 months is almost a critical shortage of homes and some price ranges the supply is even more constricted. back in 2007/2008 the Charlotte region had 20,000 plus homes and properties for sale so you can see how low this is compared to that period.  Low inventories means homes will sell quickly and they are believe me.  But as you go higher and higher in price range the time to sell increases naturally. 

[DMann]

I put 3 properties on the market last Thursday, and 2 received multiple offers on Friday and the 3rd received 2 offers on Saturday.

Things are flying off the shelf.

[Hushpuppy321]

Seems like the housing shortage in the Charlotte Metro area will continue on for some time as COVID-19 causes some developments to pause.  Probably going to be a shortage of Tower Cranes in the sky during 2021 In Charlotte as projects top out at the end of this year but new projects remain on hold or don’t start until next summer 2021.

Edited May 12, 2020 by Hushpuppy321

[KJHburg]

Houses underway in west Mecklenburg this is a age targeted community but not age restricted called the Vineyards.  all ranch homes off Old Dowd Road near Lake Wylie/Catawba River. 

Notice the construction in 2nd photo down the street.  Today. 

[KJHburg]

Apartment market update and yes it is softening and the biggest rent decreases are in the center city and nearby also the highest rent districts of Charlotte. 

From the Biz Journal today.

""ApartmentData.com tracks market activity across 21 submarkets it has defined for the Charlotte metro. Thirteen of those areas have seen rent drops of varying degrees from April to June. These five submarkets posted the biggest declines in rent prices during that time:

Uptown/Bryant Park: down 5.4% to $1,538
South End/Dilworth: down 4.7% to $1,529
Park Road/Myers Park/SouthPark: down 3% to $1,443
Pineville/Ballantyne/Providence: down 3% to $1,387
Fort Mill/Rock Hill: down 2.8% to $1,074""

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/07/09/tracking-apartment-rents-in-charlotte-metro.html

with supply greatly increasing uptown with The Ellis and the West Trade project I think rents are going to get aggressive in terms of leasing specials etc.  I would check all the all high rises out and then pit them against each other IF I was looking for an apartment.  

[KJHburg]

Apartment rents soften in Charlotte this year which is a good thing as the increases were unrelentless the last few years.

""The average cost to rent a studio in Charlotte at the end of the second quarter was $1,369, while it was $1,323 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,597 for a two-bedroom unit, according to ApartmentGuide, which analyzed multifamily property inventory on ApartmentGuide.com and Rent.com. Notably, the cost to rent a studio increased 2.9% over the year while rent decreased 5.8% for one-bedroom units and 4.8% for two bedrooms.""

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/08/06/apartmentguide-report-charlotte-metro-rents.html?iana=hpmvp_clt_news_headline

[CLT2014]

17 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Apartment rents soften in Charlotte this year which is a good thing as the increases were unrelentless the last few years.

""The average cost to rent a studio in Charlotte at the end of the second quarter was $1,369, while it was $1,323 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,597 for a two-bedroom unit, according to ApartmentGuide, which analyzed multifamily property inventory on ApartmentGuide.com and Rent.com. Notably, the cost to rent a studio increased 2.9% over the year while rent decreased 5.8% for one-bedroom units and 4.8% for two bedrooms.""

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/08/06/apartmentguide-report-charlotte-metro-rents.html?iana=hpmvp_clt_news_headline

Definitely a slow down this summer in the relocation of graduating college seniors getting a job at a Charlotte company and moving here. Family relocation also seems to have slowed down with uncertainty around schools, selling a home during COVID, et. We hired 25 graduating seniors that will be based in Charlotte, but only 8 are moving to Charlotte immediately. The rest are living in their hometowns working remotely and saving money since we don't plan to return to the office until 2021. 

Edited August 6, 2020 by CLT2014

[InTheYear2000]

3 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

Definitely a slow down this summer in the relocation of graduating college seniors getting a job at a Charlotte company and moving here. Family relocation also seems to have slowed down with uncertainty around schools, selling a home during COVID, et. We hired 25 graduating seniors that will be based in Charlotte, but only 8 are moving to Charlotte immediately. The rest are living in their hometowns working remotely and saving money since we don't plan to return to the office until 2021. 

If things go as expected, the rental market in this city is going to be insane starting Late Winter into Spring. My org is very recent grad heavy and 8 of about 14 gave up their leases in May/June to work elsewhere while we are still in the WFH posture.

[Blue_Devil]

2 hours ago, InTheYear2000 said:

If things go as expected, the rental market in this city is going to be insane starting Late Winter into Spring. My org is very recent grad heavy and 8 of about 14 gave up their leases in May/June to work elsewhere while we are still in the WFH posture.

Insane as in there will be no availability? 

[InTheYear2000]

1 hour ago, Blue_Devil said:

Insane as in there will be no availability? 

I mean we'll have higher than usual vacancy and I expect that to get slightly worse before it gets better so I don't expect people being hard-up for an apartment. But I think the rebound will be dramatic and "Insane" in the sense that we'll have many times more people moving than usual.  

My unsubstantiated hot take is that there will be shortages as a result of slowed or paused projects but that's probably a few years out.

[KJHburg]

Some of my recent examples and these are ring city examples both in the last month.  Home in Concord 2 years ago 1 application, same home last month 7 applications. Home in Mooresville 4 applications vs. 2 two years ago.   Now single family rentals are hot now because you can get a much bigger place than in an apartment complex and my dog wash area is called a spigot and a hose  and my trash valet is called my trash cans have wheels. LOL. 

I think the apartment market will continue to be strong but the higher the dollar rent is might be slower to lease up.   I see continued strength outside the 277 loop in southend, NoDa, Belmont, Optimist park and key suburban areas.  University is poised to go up with Centene and their 3200 jobs there even if most buy homes or townhomes.   Apartment vacancies are of course tied to job growth and that while slowing is not stopping here.  And with all the NY and NJ tags I see all over the metro area, people are moving here.  

[KJHburg]

Not sure where to put this but this a great article about mapping demolition permits around Charlotte and since many involved older homes I will put it here.  Some neighborhoods have been radically changed and long term renters in the neighborhood pushed out for higher priced for sale product.

https://ui.uncc.edu/story/mapping-charlottes-lost-buildings

[a2theb]

13 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Not sure where to put this but this a great article about mapping demolition permits around Charlotte and since many involved older homes I will put it here.  Some neighborhoods have been radically changed and long term renters in the neighborhood pushed out for higher priced for sale product.

https://ui.uncc.edu/story/mapping-charlottes-lost-buildings

Article mentions Wesley Heights but I assume he may be thinking of 3rd Ward (Greenleaf, Victoria, Westbrook) because Wesley Heights stills remains relatively untouched in terms of full demolitions. 

In the 3 years I have been in the neighborhood I have seen maybe 3-4, one of which had a tree fall on it and the others met extremely heavy resistance.  As far as I know, you have to purchase the house and wait a year plus before you demolish anything in a historic neighborhood.

[Nathan2]

13 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Not sure where to put this but this a great article about mapping demolition permits around Charlotte and since many involved older homes I will put it here.  Some neighborhoods have been radically changed and long term renters in the neighborhood pushed out for higher priced for sale product.

https://ui.uncc.edu/story/mapping-charlottes-lost-buildings

It seems like every week an older home is demolished for a massive home in Chantilly and Plaza. Most of the new homes tower over the older homes. 

[Blue_Devil]

1 hour ago, Nathan2 said:

It seems like every week an older home is demolished for a massive home in Chantilly and Plaza. Most of the new homes tower over the older homes. 

It is happening in Sedgefield and happened in Dilworth.

[Matthew.Brendan]

And the most beautiful old growth lumber that made these homes gets smashed and thrown in the dumpster. 

[kermit]

1 hour ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

And the most beautiful old growth lumber that made these homes gets smashed and thrown in the dumpster. 

I pulled a bunch of rafters out of a Dilworth house demolition about 15 years ago. I had it milled down to tongue and groove (after metal-detecting it for nails) and its now my bedroom ceiling. 

I am just back from the coast where 1950s and 60s era houses are getting torn down everywhere, each has beautiful cypress paneling which just gets put in a dumpster, makes me sad.

[Matthew.Brendan]

Yep. It’s a dream of mine to have a recovery / reclamation business. Kinda like a ReStore, just for old lumber pulled from all these tear downs and remodels. 
 

I recently picked up a load of nice 5.5” pine paneling someone had torn out. I cleaned it up and it will be the floor of my shed I’m building. 

[KJHburg]

Charlotte is building over 5500 apartments this year but that is down 31% from previous year. 

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/apartment-construction-2020/

Given this not sure how much rents will decrease if any but do think the rent growth is stalled this year.