Little Rock vs. NWA

[skirby]

I'm actually somewhat disappointed that neither of our two big metros made top 50. I tried to re-sort the excel sheet by growth percentage, but I couldn't. I'm sure at least Fayetteville would be in the top 50 then.

I read an article the other day on MSNBC about the growth of the South and West--probably referring to the same statistics. It mentioned Fayetteville, Arkansas, specifically as a metro that "straddles the South and Midwest."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23822398/

edit://

I found the excel sheet ordered by percentage gain (http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/re...08-49table2.xls). Fayetteville is ranked 27th, and Little Rock's not even ranked in the top 100. In other words, if you're going for substantive population growth, Fayetteville beat the pants off of Little Rock.

[johnnydr87]

But the fact remains that Fayetteville will never surpass LR in terms of population. Despite this "incredible" growth in recent years, they still trail LR by roughly 200,000 people.

[bchris02]

Does anybody think Benton county could surpass Pulaski county in the near future? Benton Co. has already surpassed Washington co. as Bentonville and Rogers are taking the dominant position in NWA from Fayetteville. It used to be Fayetteville WAS NWA, but now activity seems to be shifting to Pinnacle Hills Promenade and the surrounding areas.

[Aporkalypse]

Does anybody think Benton county could surpass Pulaski county in the near future? Benton Co. has already surpassed Washington co. as Bentonville and Rogers are taking the dominant position in NWA from Fayetteville. It used to be Fayetteville WAS NWA, but now activity seems to be shifting to Pinnacle Hills Promenade and the surrounding areas.

[Mith242]

Yeah NWA could outgrow central Arkansas for years but not catch up, in our lifetimes at least. Benton County surpassing Pulaski County is a more achievable goal. I don't know if it will happen or not. But it does seem like a lot of the growth in central Arkansas is the ring of counties around Pulaski. But either way Benton County still has a way to go. We'll just have to see how things go. Benton County might eventually hit infrastructure problems that might limit growth at some point in the future. That and at the moment Benton County is extremely reliant on how Wal-mart is doing. For future growth Benton County might need to diversify it's workforce and economy before it gets close to Pulaski County.

[Aporkalypse]

Yeah NWA could outgrow central Arkansas for years but not catch up, in our lifetimes at least. Benton County surpassing Pulaski County is a more achievable goal. I don't know if it will happen or not. But it does seem like a lot of the growth in central Arkansas is the ring of counties around Pulaski. But either way Benton County still has a way to go. We'll just have to see how things go. Benton County might eventually hit infrastructure problems that might limit growth at some point in the future. That and at the moment Benton County is extremely reliant on how Wal-mart is doing. For future growth Benton County might need to diversify it's workforce and economy before it gets close to Pulaski County.

[Mith242]

That would mean Benton Co would have to surpass 400,000 and double its current population. For that to happen I would think Wal-Mart would have to become a raging global success and maintain all of its operations in B'ville. I just doubt that happens.

However, for perspective Benton Co has more than doubled in population from 1990 to 2007.

[Aporkalypse]

Yeah and it might also have to mean that Pulaski County actually loses population to it's surrounding counties as well. But like you said it would seem that they would have to find another way to diversify it's workforce. Even though the metro does get ranked rather well as a place to live. People won't move here if there's no job for them.

[Aporkalypse]

Some interesting numbers from Arkansas Business...

Counties ranked by sales tax receipts:

1. Pulaski $217,604,454 3.55%

2. Washington $71,038,927 -11.36%

3. Benton $52,146,556 -2.45%

4. Sebastian $46,485,163 -4.63%

5. Craighead $32 million -0.5%

6. Garland $30 million -3.8%

7. Faulkner $30 million 5.1%

8. Union $24 million -5%

9. White $21 million 10.3%

10. Saline $20 million 1.8%

Why the hefty drop in sales tax revenue in NWA despite new stores and shopping centers and a growing population? Are people spending less because of the economy or are they victims of subprime mortgages? Is Washington Co's drop a delayed effect of Rogers' new developments?

Why at the same time have Central Arkansas counties fared well and continued to experience growth? Is the growth in White and Faulkner in part due to the Fayetteville Shale? What is in Searcy to spend that kind of money on? I was shocked to see it ahead of Saline.

This kind of illustrates the retail gap between Central and NWA. A lot more dollars end up being spend in Pulaski Co per person, largely because of the effect of it serving a much larger geographic area.

[bchris02]

Some interesting numbers from Arkansas Business...

Counties ranked by sales tax receipts:

1. Pulaski $217,604,454 3.55%

2. Washington $71,038,927 -11.36%

3. Benton $52,146,556 -2.45%

4. Sebastian $46,485,163 -4.63%

5. Craighead $32 million -0.5%

6. Garland $30 million -3.8%

7. Faulkner $30 million 5.1%

8. Union $24 million -5%

9. White $21 million 10.3%

10. Saline $20 million 1.8%

Why the hefty drop in sales tax revenue in NWA despite new stores and shopping centers and a growing population? Are people spending less because of the economy or are they victims of subprime mortgages? Is Washington Co's drop a delayed effect of Rogers' new developments?

Why at the same time have Central Arkansas counties fared well and continued to experience growth? Is the growth in White and Faulkner in part due to the Fayetteville Shale? What is in Searcy to spend that kind of money on? I was shocked to see it ahead of Saline.

This kind of illustrates the retail gap between Central and NWA. A lot more dollars end up being spend in Pulaski Co per person, largely because of the effect of it serving a much larger geographic area.

[Architect]

The idea that gas prices will cause lots of people to flee back to city centers is backwards. I believe more jobs will move to where people live. The condo conversions you see in downtowns may attract young people for awhile but I can't imagine large numbers of people wanting to raise families in what amounts to a pricey and glorified hamster habitat.

[EJC]

So let's put it this way: long term, you think that increased energy prices (and increasing environmental / infrastructure costs) will lead to FURTHER suburbanization? Doubtful. Very. If you extend the current (post WWII) trends to its extreme, its unsustainable.

Aside from the basics, a fatal flaw in your theory: it assumes that a business would actually move to a location (conceptually) more convenient to the employees. First, and most fundamental, what incentive does a business have to relocate for convenience? None. The financial burden/cost of the market (fuel, time, hassle, etc.) is on the INDIVIDUAL, not the employer. Second, aside from why, HOW would a business relocate to a more convenient location? Employees live everywhere! Our firm has employees who live in Hot Springs, Conway, Cabot, west LR, west Pulaski County, and many in midtown. The convenient location for our employees is at the city center.

[Aporkalypse]

FWIW, if you extend city living to "its extreme", it's unsustainable as well. That's the nature of extreme.

As for whether or not a business would move to a location convenient to it's employees....well not so much, but then again, look at Bank of the Ozarks new HQ, which, as we know, was built out west to be close to the owner. So, it does happen. And it could continue. And then there's telecommuting which could change many things.

I can tell you that city center is NOT a convenient place for the employees of my company for the most part.

I'm not saying I agree with everything that the original poster stated, but the mantra that society is going to move back to city centers is possible, but it's a bit premature to predict with any certainty.

[Mith242]

These are interesting numbers. They show that Central Arkansas is still the economic powerhouse of the state despite what NWA wants to say.

NWA trends show that most of the new growth is occuring in Benton county. The restaurant market in Fayetteville, especially around the mall has been struggling as everything sprawls north. I wouldn't be surprised to see NWA mall decline in the near future as retail becomes more centered around Pinnacle Hills Promenade. What is interesting though is even Benton county showed declines. That could be because the typical suburban gated community McMansion subdivision is where the brunt of the subprime mortgage crisis is being felt.

[slyder1]

After reading through this thread I found some information on a couple of websites, mainly the Federal Reserve's Eight District. According to the information Little Rock's economy is doing better than Fayetteville. The weird thing is Fayetteville's job growth has slowed drastically. I think Little Rock and Springfield do better because of the much more diverse economy, something the two metro's share in common.

Link to a graph of the employment rates, building permits...

http://www.business4springfield.com/news/08-03-27.htm

Link to the Federal Reserve Eight District March 19, 2008 report...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/district.html

[turboturtle]

After reading through this thread I found some information on a couple of websites, mainly the Federal Reserve's Eight District. According to the information Little Rock's economy is doing better than Fayetteville. The weird thing is Fayetteville's job growth has slowed drastically. I think Little Rock and Springfield do better because of the much more diverse economy, something the two metro's share in common.

Link to a graph of the employment rates, building permits...

http://www.business4springfield.com/news/08-03-27.htm

Link to the Federal Reserve Eight District March 19, 2008 report...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/district.html

[Aporkalypse]

After reading through this thread I found some information on a couple of websites, mainly the Federal Reserve's Eight District. According to the information Little Rock's economy is doing better than Fayetteville. The weird thing is Fayetteville's job growth has slowed drastically. I think Little Rock and Springfield do better because of the much more diverse economy, something the two metro's share in common.

Link to a graph of the employment rates, building permits...

http://www.business4springfield.com/news/08-03-27.htm

Link to the Federal Reserve Eight District March 19, 2008 report...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/regecon/district.html

[Architect]

As reported in Arkansas Business (4/14-20/08):

Largest Building Projects in Arkansas

- total list of all state projects exceeding $5M in value equated to 125 projects valued at an aggregate of nearly $2B

- Pulaski County was home to over 1/3 of the projects, or 42 - up from 38 last year

- Benton and Washington Counties combined totaled 33

- Little Rock proper accounts for 32 of the projects - up from 30 last year

- Fayetteville has 11, Rogers 10, North Little Rock 6

Yet I continue to hear how much more building is going on in NWA. People in central Arkansas fail to realize the dominant number and scale of projects in their own backyard.

[bchris02]

As reported in Arkansas Business (4/14-20/08):

Largest Building Projects in Arkansas

- total list of all state projects exceeding $5M in value equated to 125 projects valued at an aggregate of nearly $2B

- Pulaski County was home to over 1/3 of the projects, or 42 - up from 38 last year

- Benton and Washington Counties combined totaled 33

- Little Rock proper accounts for 32 of the projects - up from 30 last year

- Fayetteville has 11, Rogers 10, North Little Rock 6

Yet I continue to hear how much more building is going on in NWA. People in central Arkansas fail to realize the dominant number and scale of projects in their own backyard.

[EJC]

True to that.

I was in NWA over the weekend and I think that one reason that area gets so much more attention is there is a much greater sense of community pride in NWA than there is in Little Rock. Fayetteville made its way into Sperling's Best Places list while Little Rock is still suffering from a deep image problem - not just among outsiders but among more than a few here in the metro area as well. You can really tell just by the way many people here talk about their city vs. the overly optimistic attitude of NWA residents. I hope one day LR can move beyond the Central High crisis, beyond Gang Wars: Bangin in Little Rock, and really start promoting itself as an up-and-coming urban city.

[Aporkalypse]

Yes, there is an image problem and it probably does affect Little Rock's own residents in terms of their perception. The School Board problems from last year hurt as well. It's hard for residents or non-residents to move on with those kind of issues still at the forefront.

[slyder1]

I seems to me that people from Little Rock or Arkansas in general, don't know how people from outside Arkansas perceive Little Rock. Living in Springfield and only being a 4 hour drive away, I can assure you that many people up here love to visit Little Rock. I myself have always enjoyed going down there and have lots of wonderful memories. It's always hard for people living in a city they've been in their whole life to really know what others think about their hometown. Honestly, I'm not a big fan of NWA, and not because I just woke up one day and decided that. I just don't like the feel to it. I guess I'm just a traditional city guy and prefer one big city with a great downtown. Every time I drive down there I wonder when I'm going to see more urban scenery or the "Downtown," but then again every city or town is different in it's own right.

Back to the topic...

I think that it seems obvious which metro will always be the big daddy of the state. It's just a matter of time before NWA's growth comes to a halt. When that is, no one knows, but with the lack of highways, freeway's, expressway's... the growth can only go so far. People will eventually get very sick of driving through all the windy roads. Plus there is no through interstate that runs through the metro. Even with all the huss and fuss about the population increase in NWA, Little Rock and Springfield are basically growing at the same rate. From June 2006 to June 2007, NWA gained over 12,000, Little Rock and Springfield more than 9,000 each.(census data) With the Highways system Little Rock has, as well as a much, much, much... more diverse economy, it will be very hard for NWA to steal the lime light from Little Rock.

[Architect]

I seems to me that people from Little Rock or Arkansas in general, don't know how people from outside Arkansas perceive Little Rock. Living in Springfield and only being a 4 hour drive away, I can assure you that many people up here love to visit Little Rock. I myself have always enjoyed going down there and have lots of wonderful memories. It's always hard for people living in a city they've been in their whole life to really know what others think about their hometown. Honestly, I'm not a big fan of NWA, and not because I just woke up one day and decided that. I just don't like the feel to it. I guess I'm just a traditional city guy and prefer one big city with a great downtown. Every time I drive down there I wonder when I'm going to see more urban scenery or the "Downtown," but then again every city or town is different in it's own right.

Back to the topic...

I think that it seems obvious which metro will always be the big daddy of the state. It's just a matter of time before NWA's growth comes to a halt. When that is, no one knows, but with the lack of highways, freeway's, expressway's... the growth can only go so far. People will eventually get very sick of driving through all the windy roads. Plus there is no through interstate that runs through the metro. Even with all the huss and fuss about the population increase in NWA, Little Rock and Springfield are basically growing at the same rate. From June 2006 to June 2007, NWA gained over 12,000, Little Rock 11,000 and Springfield 10,000. With the Highways system Little Rock has, as well as a much, much, much... more diverse economy, it will be very hard for NWA to steal the lime light from Little Rock.

[slyder1]

Very insightful post Slyder - we appreciate your periodic contributions to the LR forum! Of course, you state what we want to hear and most of us would agree in general about your perspective. The key here being that it comes from an "outsider"!

[Architect]

Maybe I misinterpreted the earlier posts, but aren't I an "outsider?"