New 2007 Census Estimates Are Out

[johnatl]

Didn't see this posted anywhere, so please forgive me if this is a dupe. Thought you all would be interested in these numbers.

Tallahassee MSA is now at 352,319! Add in Thomasville's 45,237 and the combined total is at 397,556. Not sure why the Feds don't consider it part of your Metro, but I guess not enough (25%) commute into Tally from Thomas County.

Other interesting figures:

Jacksonville - 1,300,823

Pensacola - 453,451

Ocala - 324,857

Gainesville - 257,099

Fort Walton Beach/Destin - 181,499

Panama City - 163,984

Lake City - 67,985

Link:http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metro_general/2007/CBSA-EST2007-01.xls

[Florida]

Great #s! Thanks for sharing!

[TD]

Great #s! Thanks for sharing!

[SkyDave]

The City or County should petition the feds to include both Thomas County and Grady County Ga. If the commute numbers don't add up, then maybe we could make a case based on retail, health-care, and transportation services (Regional Airport). I believe surpassing the 400,000 MSA threshold is important in our march toward a 500,000 MSA in ten years.

[TD]

The City or County should petition the feds to include both Thomas County and Grady County Ga. If the commute numbers don't add up, then maybe we could make a case based on retail, health-care, and transportation services (Regional Airport). I believe surpassing the 400,000 MSA threshold is important in our march toward a 500,000 MSA in ten years.

[jpl02]

I don't like relying on the U.S. Census data.

The Bureau of Economic & Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida puts out their own population projections for counties in Florida, and from experience, they're much more accurate than the U.S. Census, since BEBR projections take into account state and local influences on population growth.

At DCA, we require that counties and cities use BEBR data when making population projections for the future, simply because they're better projections. The U.S. Census has almost always underestimated growth in Florida. If counties relied on their projections, we'd be in deep trouble

[poonther]

The US Census estimate have our metro population figures for '07 at 352,319 as johnatl has stated above. They state that since 2000 we've grown 9%.

On the other hand, jpl02's preferred choice of the BEBR (and mine) shows that in '07 Tally metro had a population of 366,205 and that we have grown 14.3% since 2000.

That's a difference of 14k people...or almost twice the population or our neighboring county Liberty.

[poonther]

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K

Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K

Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K

Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K

Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K

Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT: I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K. It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

[bighardrivesrule]

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K

Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K

Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K

Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K

Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K

Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT: I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K. It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

[poonther]

^Yeah I was thinking about including MGM too since they are about the same size and a Capital City. We would already be bigger than them this year, if we still had Jefferson County.

MGM metro's biggest problem is that their core county, Montgomery only grew by 1% during that time period and they definitely are not at build out in that county. However their suburban counties grew by 14% to 17%. Nothing wrong w/fast growing suburban counties but you want your core to grow too to make a healthy metro IMHO.

In our metro, Leon grew by 9%, Gadsden by 5% and Wakulla by 30% making them one of the top 100 fastest growing counties in the US.

For the health of our metro, while I understand Leon's growth will probably always be in the single digits, I hope it does not become stagnant or decline.

BTW when listing area metros, I forgot Albany, GA. They have a metro population of 164K and grew only by 3.9%..definitely the smallest gain in our region. I believe based on these trends, Valdosta is setting itself up to become the top metro in South GA. I'm sure I-75 and VSU have a lot to do w/that.

[Go Gators]

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K

Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K

Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K

Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K

Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K

Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT: I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K. It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

[bighardrivesrule]

The new July 2007 metro population estimates are out and Tally Metro(Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla counties) now officially has a population of 352,319. That's 32,015 more people than we had in the area in the year 2000.

We grew 10% during that time period and now are the 139th largest MSA out of 369 in the USA. That's up from 141th in 2000.

To me it's interesting to note that many of the surrounding Metros grew by almost the same percent during that time period:

P'cola Metro grew by 10% also for a total pop. of 453K

Panama City Metro by 10.6% for a total pop. of 163K

Gainesville Metro by 10.6% also for a total pop. of 257K

Fort Walton Metro by only 6.5% for a total pop. of 181K

Valdosta Metro by 8.9% for a total pop of 130K

Dothan Metro by 6.6% for a total pop of 139K

The big growers in our region are:

Jax who grew by 15.9% for a total of 1.3 million. This percentage growth was no doubt helped by one of the fastest growing counties in the US, St. Johns (St. Augustine)

Ocala who grew by whopping 25.5% for a total population of 324K.

ON EDIT: I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K. It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

[Glenn]

^ Poonther, Thanks so much for providing us with the census numbers & comparisons. Don't you think Ocala's explosive growth is tied to the growth of The Villages area & all the new spin-off communities surrounding it that seem to be moving North into Southern portions of Marion County? That's my guess anyway.

[plgt8]

ON EDIT: I noticed in my post above that when I manually calculated our metro's population I came up w/366k and now the official reports states we have 352K. It appears to me that they've taken Jefferson County away from our metro. b/c Jeff.'s County population is exactly the difference between those two numbers.

Was anyone else aware of Jeff. being removed?

[plgt8]

Also while playing with those numbers for everything in the panhandle, I came up with these groupings for the pure hell of it:

The "plgt8 Tallahassee Greater Metro Region" :

(Normal Tally MSA of Leon, Gadsden, Wakulla & Jefferson + Liberty Cnty, Franklin Cnty, Taylor Cnty,

Madison Cnty, Grady CntyGEO, Thomas Cnty GEO...and hell, let's throw in Decatur for fun)

= 507,751 (as of July 1, 2007)

The "plgt8 'Panama City Greater Metro Region" :

(Normal PC MSA of Bay Cnty + 'Washington Cnty, Gulf Cnty, Calhoun Cnty & Jackson Cnty)

= 263,810 (as of July 1, 2007)

The "plgt8 FWB/Crestvie/Destin Greater Metro Region" :

(Normal Okaloosa Cnty MSA + 'Walton Cnty & Holmes Cnty)

= 253,625 (as of July 1, 2007)

The "plgt8 Pensacola Greater Metro Region" :

(Normal Pensa MSA of Escambia & Santa Rosa Cnty + Baldwin Cnty, AL (yeah yeah, we share that one with Mobile workers))

= 625,220 (as of July 1, 2007)

OH WELL, its fun playing.

[poonther]

When I was originally wading through these numbers last month, it seemed to work perfectly with Jefferson County in it:

(using US Census Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties of Florida: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007)

Leon County - 260,945

Gadsden Cnty - 47,197

Wakulla Cnty - 29,726

Jefferson Cnty - 14,451

Total = 352,319

[poonther]

GG & Glenn you guys know the answer to your Ocala/Marion question:

"Different Pace, Better Place!"

How do you guys like that slogan? Do you think it would have been appropriate for Tally/Leon?

IMHO Ocala owes it's rapid growth to many reasons. One, it use to be one of the least expensive metros in the state to live. Marion County makes permitting very easy and fast and they are definitely pro-business. Have you guys noticed along I-75 all the new business that have located there in the past few years especially between the SR 200 exit and the US 27 exit? Also not a knock on the area, but you can put up those ever popular 55+ mobile home parks pretty quickly.

I think Ocala's proximity to Orlando definitely helps, but MCO sure is on the wrong-side of town for them. I've heard Ocala wants to start their own commercial airport. I think what they should do is build one on the Marion/Alachua County line and let it serve G'ville and Ocala. But I've heard that G'ville doesn't want to do this and give up their commercial airport on the northside of town. If there were ever two different sister cities in our state, it would be Ocala and G'ville....one's young, educated and white collar; the other is much older, less educated and more blue collar.

The (Stepford) Villages has had a lot to do w/the growth of Ocala and Leesburg, but both were growing before it came into the picture. Most of The Village's population actually lives and will live in Sumter County.

Another bonus for Ocala is that they are close to great health-care at Shands and the hospitals in Orlando. That really helps w/an aging population. Finally I think that small-town Southerners and Midwesterners identify and feel safer retiring in Ocala than the big city of Orlando.

Those are my thoughts on the subject...yours?

[plgt8]

[Finally I'd just merge Santa Rosa, Escambia, Baldwin and Mobile counties into one big CMSA and I'd throw in Escambia County, AL (Atmore, Brewton, Flomation) and Washington County, AL (Chatom, AL) into the mix. Possibly a Miss. County or two...what do you think? I believe in our lifetimes we'll see Mobile and P'cola merge into one big CMSA and it may include the FWB area too...what do you think?

[Glenn]

^ ^ Wow, 60,000 +?...that's sure is a lot of commuters! Like you plgt8, I also find myself wondering where all those commuters work over there?

[plgt8]

^ ^ Wow, 60,000 +?...that's sure is a lot of commuters! Like you plgt8, I also find myself wondering where all those commuters work over there?

[Glenn]

Thanks so much for clearing that up plgt8, It al makes a little more sense now...Thanks again!

[poonther]

plgt8 as I'm sure you know metro areas are determined partly by commuting patterns.

That said, I still find it retarded that Baldwin was removed from Mobile. I suspect that the great majority of commuters are heading into Mobile (Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort) and less into Escambia (Lillian, OB, GS.) I'm sure cities like Bay Minette probably split their commuters.

Now Santa Rosa is part of P'cola metro, but I suspect many of their commuters also head into Okaloosa to Hulbert and Eglin. I wouldn't be surprised to see FWB and P'cola combine into a CMSA before P'cola and Mobile combine.....all of which I think will happen one day.

The big question is which MSA will the 50+K and growing fast residents of Walton County become part of? PC or FWB? I'm thinking this could happen in the '10 census and my bet is on them joining FWB.

As for Tally, if you've ever driven out Hwy 20 during rush hour, it's hard to imagine that all those commuters to Liberty County aren't part of our metro. It seems they all work over here in Leon. That would add a whopping 7K to our metro.

As for the GA border counties, I've always thought we'd add Grady (Cairo) to our metro before Thomas b/c there's not a lot of places to work in Grady like there is in Thomas.

[poonther]

Urban Planet-Tally Exclusive:

Well folks if you are living in the city limits of Tally, according to the latest census estimate released today, you are living the 140th largest city in the USA.

Tally's pop. according to the estimate for 7.1.07 was 168,979...let's just call it 169,000. In '06 the estimate was 166,815 and in 2000 the official census total was 150,624.

Since 2000, out of 262 cities w/a pop. over 100k, we were the 72nd fastest growing w/a 11% increase in those 7 years. That growth rate puts us just below Tampa and ahead of several cities including Jax, FTL, Pembroke Pines Coral Springs, Gainesville, Hollywood and Pompano.

3 cities in FL actually lost population: St. Pete, Clearwater and Hialeah..which actually was in the bottom ten along w/the likes of Cleveland, NOLA, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Flint.

Port St. Lucie and Cape Coral were the two FL cities in the top ten fastest growing.

Of course Jax(805K) is the largest city in FL coming in at #12 in terms of size.

Followed by Miami(409K) at #43

Tampa(337K) at #54

St. Pete(246K) at #75

ORL(228k) at #83

Hialeah(212K) dropping to #93

Lauderdale(183K) at #122

Tally (169K) at #140

Cape Coral(157K) at #145

PSL (151K) at #153

Those are the top ten in FL. Hollywood, Pembroke Pines and Pompano Beach are no longer in the top ten and w/the growth rate of PSL and CC, Tally looks to drop to #10 in the next few years.

Also interesting to note that of the big 4 states (CA,TX,NY and FL) Florida is the only state NOT to have a city over 1 million. CA has two, TX has two and NY one.

[south park county]

Which database did this study? These numbers seem higher than some I have seen before. I do indeed hope these will are the true numbers and that the 2010 census impresses us.

[TD]

I always wanted to pass Fort Lauderdale for bragging rights.... it seems like in a few years it will come true!