Population Trends of Northwest Arkansas

[Mith242]

While this has been discussed before I don't think we had a topic dealing specifically with it. So I though I'd go ahead and start one. I had posted this info in the Fayetteville forum, but it's referring to the metro as a whole so I figured I should put in in a topic outside of just Fayetteville.

Fayetteville was mentioned indirectly in an article talking about how everybody seems to be moving to the 'Sunbelt'.

Of the 50 fastest-growing metro areas, 27 were in the South and 20 were in the West. Two were in the Midwest, one

[Mith242]

After reading that article I began thinking about where we were exactly. I actually haven't seen a listing, we've fallen out of the top ten ranking we had in th 90's. But I did see that we are estimated to have grown at a 25.5% growth rate between 2000 and mid 2007. We're also estimated to have added just under 90,000 during that time period. Going from around 347,000 people in 2000 to over 435,000 in mid 2007. At the height of our growth we were averaging around 1,100 people a month. But I think that's down under 1,000 now, possibly around 900 a month. So we should be over the 440,000 mark now. Even if things slow down even more we should hit the 450,000 mark before 2010. I am curious to see if the current slowdown in the market has any affect on population trends. It's still a little ways off but when we hit the 500,000 mark I think it will bring about some changes for the area. For one we should get more funding. But I also think at that point we will also get looked at more by other companies and retail and such.

[Stormcrow]

I think right now is the time that NWA should get seriously aggressive with marketing to light tech manufacturing. The economic slowdown will prompt some companies to look for cost cutting and that might mean a relocation to a lower cost of living area. Even more so, European companies are now starting to offshore manufacturing to the US because of the favorable exchange rate. NWA needs to capitalize on that and get the light manufacturing that will not be terribly environmentally unfriendly in the area. I think the area could blast through towards that 500k mark.

[Mith242]

I think right now is the time that NWA should get seriously aggressive with marketing to light tech manufacturing. The economic slowdown will prompt some companies to look for cost cutting and that might mean a relocation to a lower cost of living area. Even more so, European companies are now starting to offshore manufacturing to the US because of the favorable exchange rate. NWA needs to capitalize on that and get the light manufacturing that will not be terribly environmentally unfriendly in the area. I think the area could blast through towards that 500k mark.

It is a good idea. I think Little Rock has been doing a good job of this. Of course there's other areas I'd also like to see the area invest in. But it's never bad to have your eggs distributed out and not in just one basket.

[Mith242]

Apparently we're 27th in the rankings of the fastest growing metro. I'm not sure if this is based off of just last year's numbers of the 2000-2007 figures. I'm assuming the later. So we went from top ten for the 90's to just outside the top 25 since 2000.

[Mith242]

Hmmm....one tv station mentioned NWA being 27th yesterday and then this morning another tv station is saying we're 58th. I'm guessing one is talking about the 2000-2007 figures and one the 2006-2007 figures.

[slyder1]

Hmmm....one tv station mentioned NWA being 27th yesterday and then this morning another tv station is saying we're 58th. I'm guessing one is talking about the 2000-2007 figures and one the 2006-2007 figures.

I noticed that NWA ranks 27th from the 2000-2007. Pretty impressive growth still going on down there. The Springfield MSA gained almost 11,000 poeple from 2006-2007 and now sits at 420,020 ranking 49th. It looks like both of our MSA's are having sustained growth still. Greene county is supposed to break the 300,000 mark by 2010 according to the US Census.

[Mith242]

I noticed that NWA ranks 27th from the 2000-2007. Pretty impressive growth still going on down there. The Springfield MSA gained almost 11,000 poeple from 2006-2007 and now sits at 420,020 ranking 49th. It looks like both of our MSA's are having sustained growth still. Greene county is supposed to break the 300,000 mark by 2010 according to the US Census.

Yeah I hadn't heard anything directly but I figured the Springfield area is doing pretty well for itself as well. Decades ago the Ozarks were rather sparsely populated. But I think in the upcoming decades that's going to change more and more. At some point our MSA's could actually be in contact. Especially with today's sprawling lifestyle.

[KJW]

Here's what's interesting to me about this article:

If you figure in the population estimated from last year alone in the 4 county NWA metro (435,714) plus the estimated population of the three counties expected to be added to the metro in 2 years after the census (Delaware, OK 2006 estimate: 41,000; Adair, OK, 2006 estimate: 22,000; and Carroll, AR 2006 estimate: 27,000) the metro area population right now would be 525,000.

Remember those studies (urban legends?) some of us used to talk about hearing a few years back...that there would be 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 people within a 50 mile radius of the Rogers public library in a decade or two? Depending on which number one believes we're either over 1/4 to 1/2 way there...

[Mith242]

Here's what's interesting to me about this article:

If you figure in the population estimated from last year alone in the 4 county NWA metro (435,714) plus the estimated population of the three counties expected to be added to the metro in 2 years after the census (Delaware, OK 2006 estimate: 41,000; Adair, OK, 2006 estimate: 22,000; and Carroll, AR 2006 estimate: 27,000) the metro area population right now would be 525,000.

Remember those studies (urban legends?) some of us used to talk about hearing a few years back...that there would be 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 people within a 50 mile radius of the Rogers public library in a decade or two? Depending on which number one believes we're either over 1/4 to 1/2 way there...

That makes me wonder, I'm pretty sure Carroll County is now part of our metro. But does that mean they've already added those figures in? I think we'd be higher than the 335,000 or so figure they stated. Although I think Carroll County is a recent addition so those figures might not have been added yet. We might have to wait till next year to get them officially added. I'm not sure when the two Oklahoma counties might become a part of the metro. I'm also wondering if we might eventually pull in a second Missouri county.

[strmchsr77]

That makes me wonder, I'm pretty sure Carroll County is now part of our metro. But does that mean they've already added those figures in? I think we'd be higher than the 335,000 or so figure they stated. Although I think Carroll County is a recent addition so those figures might not have been added yet. We might have to wait till next year to get them officially added. I'm not sure when the two Oklahoma counties might become a part of the metro. I'm also wondering if we might eventually pull in a second Missouri county.

The last I heard it was still Washington, Benton, Madison, and McDonald counties. I don't think that Carroll has ever been added into the estimated 435,000. But I could be wrong.

[Mith242]

The last I heard it was still Washington, Benton, Madison, and McDonald counties. I don't think that Carroll has ever been added into the estimated 435,000. But I could be wrong.

Yeah I don't think the population figures have been added yet. But I've seen several newspaper sources that listed Carroll County as part of the metro in the past month or so. I'm assuming it's been pretty recent which means it will probably be another year before the census officially adds their numbers to the metro.

[Stormcrow]

Yeah I don't think the population figures have been added yet. But I've seen several newspaper sources that listed Carroll County as part of the metro in the past month or so. I'm assuming it's been pretty recent which means it will probably be another year before the census officially adds their numbers to the metro.

The latest data file I had pulled off the census website a couple of weeks ago had Madison and McDonnell counties included in the metro but not Carroll yet.

[Mith242]

The latest data file I had pulled off the census website a couple of weeks ago had Madison and McDonnell counties included in the metro but not Carroll yet.

Yeah I'm pretty sure it's a pretty recent development. The census figures are from last year so Carroll County shouldn't show up till next year.

[KJW]

That makes me wonder, I'm pretty sure Carroll County is now part of our metro. But does that mean they've already added those figures in? I think we'd be higher than the 335,000 or so figure they stated. Although I think Carroll County is a recent addition so those figures might not have been added yet. We might have to wait till next year to get them officially added. I'm not sure when the two Oklahoma counties might become a part of the metro. I'm also wondering if we might eventually pull in a second Missouri county.

The second Missouri county would obviously be Barry. As far as a media market, the NWA Times is doing their darndest to be THE "big-city" paper there and have a great presence from that county's seat (Cassville, in the middle) all the way to the border. I know that people used to travel to the county's biggest city Monett all the way from Fayetteville to work at Jack Henry and Associates. Monett, however, is at the far north end of the county and is firmly in the Springfield "camp". (Aurora, 5-10 miles up the road, is practically a bedroom community for Springfield now.)

However, in the two farthest south cities in Barry (Seligman and Washburn) there are clearly subdivisions there of smaller houses that seem to say "NWA suburb". At W-M headquarters it's not unusual to see homes for sale in that area on company bulletin boards.

I don't think Carroll, Adair and Delaware will be officially added (if they are) until the 2010 census.

Gives us something else to look forward to that year.

[Mith242]

The second Missouri county would obviously be Barry. As far as a media market, the NWA Times is doing their darndest to be THE "big-city" paper there and have a great presence from that county's seat (Cassville, in the middle) all the way to the border. I know that people used to travel to the county's biggest city Monett all the way from Fayetteville to work at Jack Henry and Associates. Monett, however, is at the far north end of the county and is firmly in the Springfield "camp". (Aurora, 5-10 miles up the road, is practically a bedroom community for Springfield now.)

However, in the two farthest south cities in Barry (Seligman and Washburn) there are clearly subdivisions there of smaller houses that seem to say "NWA suburb". At W-M headquarters it's not unusual to see homes for sale in that area on company bulletin boards.

I don't think Carroll, Adair and Delaware will be officially added (if they are) until the 2010 census.

Gives us something else to look forward to that year.

Yeah Carroll County won't be added to the census figures till next year. I think it might be a little longer before the other two might be added. We'll have till June or July, if they're added after that they won't be in next years census figures either.

[Stormcrow]

As an aside, do any of you know the official criteria for adding counties to an MSA? I've been trying to find that but have come up short. I'd imagine there would be some quantitative method.

[Mith242]

As an aside, do any of you know the official criteria for adding counties to an MSA? I've been trying to find that but have come up short. I'd imagine there would be some quantitative method.

Yeah I've seen something about that but I don't remember all the details. I think a certain percentage of people in a county have to work in a metro. There might be other factors such as who many people visit from the county on a daily basis for things like health care or even for entertainment purposes. I saw something on it a while back ago and wish I could remember where I saw it at.

[Architect]

As an aside, do any of you know the official criteria for adding counties to an MSA? I've been trying to find that but have come up short. I'd imagine there would be some quantitative method.

It has to do with employment patterns. Don't hold me to this percentage, but I believe if over 50% of a county's working population commutes in to the existing MSA (might have to be one county in the MSA), then it will be added to the MSA. Also, I believe this can only happen after an official census (perhaps any additions to the NWA MSA could come following a special census?).

This happened to the Little Rock MSA shortly after the 2000 census when Perry and Grant Counties were added to the original four (Pulaski, Saline, Faulkner & Lonoke), bringing the total to 6. They weren't added until 2003 (not sure why it took so long after the 2000 census). At that time, Conway County was expected to be added, but apparently just missed the criteria, and its expected to be added after the 2010 census, bringing the total to 7.

[Stormcrow]

It has to do with employment patterns. Don't hold me to this percentage, but I believe if over 50% of a county's working population commutes in to the existing MSA (might have to be one county in the MSA), then it will be added to the MSA. Also, I believe this can only happen after an official census (perhaps any additions to the NWA MSA could come following a special census?).

This happened to the Little Rock MSA shortly after the 2000 census when Perry and Grant Counties were added to the original four (Pulaski, Saline, Faulkner & Lonoke), bringing the total to 6. They weren't added until 2003 (not sure why it took so long after the 2000 census). At that time, Conway County was expected to be added, but apparently just missed the criteria, and its expected to be added after the 2010 census, bringing the total to 7.

If the criterion is in that 50% range then I don't think you'll see Carroll in the NWA metro for a while. Two of the 3 population centers of the county (Green Forest and Berryville) are on the eastern half (more or less) and both have fairly stable employment options. Folks that don't stay local are probably much more likely to commute to Harrison for employment.

[Mith242]

If the criterion is in that 50% range then I don't think you'll see Carroll in the NWA metro for a while. Two of the 3 population centers of the county (Green Forest and Berryville) are on the eastern half (more or less) and both have fairly stable employment options. Folks that don't stay local are probably much more likely to commute to Harrison for employment.

I suppose it could have been a mistake but twice in the past month or so I've seen local newspapers list Carroll County as a part of the metro. Although I never saw any official announcement either. But I do see your point. I think another thing that could hurt is that Hwy 62 is rather curvy and winding in Carroll County and doesn't allow quick travel to the west to the metro. I'm going to have to take a closer look and see if I can find anything mentioning Carroll County being officially added.

[Mith242]

I haven't had much luck so far finding any announcement making it official. Just another online article listing Carroll County as part of the metro. It's from the Northwest Arkansas Times/Benton County Record/Arkansas Democrat Gazette. It's about halfway down the article. So I guess the question is, where did they get that info and is it official.

http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Business_Matters/218588/

[Stormcrow]

I haven't had much luck so far finding any announcement making it official. Just another online article listing Carroll County as part of the metro. It's from the Northwest Arkansas Times/Benton County Record/Arkansas Democrat Gazette. It's about halfway down the article. So I guess the question is, where did they get that info and is it official.

http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Business_Matters/218588/

Could just be wishful thinking. Re: Hwy 62 - I agree, it'd be a tough commute from ES to Rogers and a major impediment to getting Carroll in the NWA MSA. My opinion is that it's almost as likely to see it get thrown into the Harrison microSA as anything but I suspect until a good NWA to Harrison connector is completed that Carroll will just hang out on it's own. But hey, it's only my opinion. I have no insight as to what people in Carroll are really doing for work.

[Mith242]

Could just be wishful thinking. Re: Hwy 62 - I agree, it'd be a tough commute from ES to Rogers and a major impediment to getting Carroll in the NWA MSA. My opinion is that it's almost as likely to see it get thrown into the Harrison microSA as anything but I suspect until a good NWA to Harrison connector is completed that Carroll will just hang out on it's own. But hey, it's only my opinion. I have no insight as to what people in Carroll are really doing for work.

I sent an e-mail to the Northwest Arkansas Times/Arkansas Democrat Gazette about them having Carroll County listed as part of the NWA metro. I'll have to see if they respond back to me.

[Aporkalypse]

I sent an e-mail to the Northwest Arkansas Times/Arkansas Democrat Gazette about them having Carroll County listed as part of the NWA metro. I'll have to see if they respond back to me.

I've heard a couple of times that the Chamber of Commerces up there add Carroll to their numbers though officially it's not part of the MSA. If the newspapers are using chamber numbers that would explain that.