Latest census estimates for NC MSA's

[TLT]

Here is the latest census estimates (July 2007) for North Carolina MSA areas listed by increase in growth, and number of people added, over last year's estimates (July 2006).

CITY--------POPULATION-------------INCREASE-------------------------NUMBER OF PEOPLE ADDED

Raleigh-Cary 1,047,629----------------4.7% 3rd largest increase in U.S.--- 47,052

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord 1,651,568--4.2% 7th largest increase in U.S.---66,724

Wilmington 339,551--------------------3.1% 20th largest increase in U.S.---10,336

Burlington 145,360---------------------2.4% 42nd---3,395

Durham 479,624------------------------2.2% 55th---10,428

Greenville 172,473----------------------2.1% 61st---3,606

Winston Salem 463,159-----------------1.8% 88th---8,116

Greensboro-High Point 698,497----------1.7% 94th---11,740

Asheville 404,320-----------------------1.6% 102nd---6,519

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton 360,471---1.0% 187th---3,442

Rocky Point 145,596--------------------0.7% 231st---1,034

Goldsboro 113,590----------------------0.7% 238th---771

Jacksonville 162,745-------------------- 0.5% 273rd---771

Fayetteville 348,940--------------------0.1% 329th---280

Raleigh-Cary passed the million mark for their metro area this year. Durham should pass 500,000 by the 2010 census, Winston Salem will come close giving North Carolina two cities with metros above 1 million and three more at or above 500,000.

Wilmington is moving on up, it should pass Fayetteville in population at the current rate of increase next year, and Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton by the 2010 census.

North Carolina is no longer the rural farm state it was twenty five years ago.

[CapeFearRiver10]

Here is the latest census estimates (July 2007) for North Carolina MSA areas listed by increase in growth, and number of people added, over last year's estimates (July 2006).

CITY--------POPULATION-------------INCREASE-------------------------NUMBER OF PEOPLE ADDED

Raleigh-Cary 1,047,629----------------4.7% 3rd largest increase in U.S.--- 47,052

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord 1,651,568--4.2% 7th largest increase in U.S.---66,724

Wilmington 339,551--------------------3.1% 20th largest increase in U.S.---10,336

Burlington 145,360---------------------2.4% 42nd---3,395

Durham 479,624------------------------2.2% 55th---10,428

Greenville 172,473----------------------2.1% 61st---3,606

Winston Salem 463,159-----------------1.8% 88th---8,116

Greensboro-High Point 698,497----------1.7% 94th---11,740

Asheville 404,320-----------------------1.6% 102nd---6,519

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton 360,471---1.0% 187th---3,442

Rocky Point 145,596--------------------0.7% 231st---1,034

Goldsboro 113,590----------------------0.7% 238th---771

Jacksonville 162,745-------------------- 0.5% 273rd---771

Fayetteville 348,940--------------------0.1% 329th---280

Raleigh-Cary passed the million mark for their metro area this year. Durham should pass 500,000 by the 2010 census, Winston Salem will come close giving North Carolina two cities with metros above 1 million and three more at or above 500,000.

Wilmington is moving on up, it should pass Fayetteville in population at the current rate of increase next year, and Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton by the 2010 census.

North Carolina is far passed the rural farm state it was twenty years ago.

I rather NC preserve most of its farm land, I hope NC doesn't become another Florida, but the only way for this to happen is to change its zoning laws & create some density. Damn soon or later Durham could possible have 800,000-1 million in its metro & its also possible for Greensboro by 2030. But the sleepers are Asheville, Fayetteville, & Wilmington could have have 530,000-700,000 by 2020. I think Asheville/Wilmington are going to become major hubs of the south in about 30 years, with Asheville mountain scenary & Wilmington with 1 major port+1 super port this city will eventually proclaim the "Top 4 cities in NC".

[Creasy336]

Great to see Burlington on that list. I wonder how long it will be until Greensboro's MSA combines with Burlington, that merge will push Greensboro toward 1,000,000 sooner than most realize. The county's Triangle commuters along with job growth at Alamance Regional Airport, and various business parks will help retain workers in the county. That will probably prevent that for sometime.

[reeeems]

wilmington really needs that skyway to continue growing at this rate. i don't know the likelihood of it getting built, though. there's a huge gap in property values between the brunswick side and the new hanover side.

[ERJ170]

I think they should add Durham back into the Raleigh-Cary MSA and recall it Raleigh-Durham, Triangle, or Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA.. it makes no sense to seperate Durham-Chapel Hill from Raleigh-Cary because they are all completely integrated..

Does anyone know why it was split out and Charlotte's wasn't?

[1979Heel]

MSAs are for cities that have a density and drawing power all their own. Chapel Hill and Durham together have UNC and Duke that account for most of their employment patterns. Same with Raleigh and Cary, NC State and RTP, repsectively.

Charlotte is surrounded by smaller cities that have no employment pattern of their own that can compete with Charlotte in the way that Chapel Hill does with Durham or Raleigh with Cary. So even though Lancaster, Salisbury and Statesville have their own MSAs, they are not grouped with Charlotte for MSA purposes. You also see this in Atlanta where there is no effective counterweight to Atlanta. An example of the Raleigh situation is also found in the Bay Area in California where SF and Oakland are grouped together for their MSA, with San Jose having its own MSA.

A more interesting metric is the CSA, or combined statistical area. I think that's what most people think of when they think of a metro area. Charlotte's CSA ia about 2.3 million; the Triangle's is about 1.7 million. You can see these figures on census.gov.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

I think they should add Durham back into the Raleigh-Cary MSA and recall it Raleigh-Durham, Triangle, or Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA.. it makes no sense to seperate Durham-Chapel Hill from Raleigh-Cary because they are all completely integrated..

Does anyone know why it was split out and Charlotte's wasn't?

1979 explained it best, but Charlotte is the dominating big daddy city in its region, whereas Raleigh does not dominate the Triangle in the same way, but instead, shares the limelight with Durham, and to a lesser extent, Chapel Hill. Raleigh and Durham are likes brothers, whereas Charlotte is the parent of its region.

[NcSc74]

Atlanta is the overlord of GA! I dont see Durham grouped back with Raliegh for a very long time. Unless Raleigh starts attracting fotune 500 HQs in to its city limits the two will always be split. The CSA defines the region better but not perfectly. Yes we know the two cities touch and are growing together but not enough Durhamites commute to Raleigh for work. So we will have this setup for a while. What possibly could happen is Durhams MSA begins to grow the way Raleigh has. For example to the west and north. Maybe even pull in a county from Virginia...you never know what the future holds.

[monsoon]

I think they should add Durham back into the Raleigh-Cary MSA and recall it Raleigh-Durham, Triangle, or Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA.. it makes no sense to seperate Durham-Chapel Hill from Raleigh-Cary because they are all completely integrated..

Does anyone know why it was split out and Charlotte's wasn't?

I believe it was because Durham successfully argued that it should not be in the Raleigh CSA. The OMB (which creates the definitions) allow for this as there are more than just commuting patterns used to make this definition. You asked about Charlotte. There are two counties that touch Mecklenburg that are also not part of the MSA. The Triad was also split apart.

I am not sure why it is such a big deal.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

I wish they would break down the Raleigh-Cary MSA.

I want to see how many people each town gained. Like Garner...Holly Springs, Fuquay..etc

Anyone know?

[DCMetroRaleigh]

They release city populations separately from county populations.

[aceboogie]

I also don't think the Triad or the Triangle should have been split up. However, I see see Durham as the kid brother to Raleigh whereas Winston and Greensboro are twins.

As far as sprawl goes, I agree that it needs to be controlled because we do need to preserve our farmland, we gotta eat! I think the more food NC produces on its own the better off. The growth should be concentrated on the big three metros. That is concentrated in these areas but not limited to just these areas.

Asheville and Wilmington, and to a lesser degree Fayetteville are definitely the sleeper cities of the region. Just depends on your personal taste. I would love to see Greensboro and Burlington merge MSAs so we can have three MSAs at or over 1million by 2010.

[NcSc74]

NC nets to cities in the top 5 for in-migration populaiton growth. Raleigh and Charlotte still ranks high in population growth despite the bad economic times. I was concerned that Charlotte was gonna get hit really hard but it seems to be bobing and weaving the recession punches. Raleigh seems to be a steady performer for the last decade. Watch out Charlotte MSA the Triangle could possibly pass you up if the current trend continues . Here is the link I read on MSN.

http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-...7&GT1=35000

[Gard]

^

According to the US consensus office, the estimated population of Wake County in 2008 was 866,410 and the estimated population of Mecklenburg County is 890,515. At the going rate, its a very realistic scenario that Wake will surpass Mecklenburg in population. Anyways, its nice to see NC growing as a whole

[krazeeboi]

There's no doubt that Wake County will end up being the most populous in the state, but NcSc74 was talking about metro populations. Both are growing fast no doubt, but even if the Triangle eventually surpasses the Charlotte MSA, Charlotte will always have the advantage of being the urban center in the metro area.

[clt29301]

There is no question that Wake will be NC's most populated county in the near future. Wake has more land to grow, 860 sq miles vs. 527 for Meck. However, it is unlikely that the Raleigh MSA will grow larger. Although MSA definitions can change (Durham may be added back to Raleigh at some point), there are counties around Charlotte that will be added to the Charlotte MSA at some point as well. And, the growth rates are too close to close the gap.

[davidals]

The June 2009 estimates are out, for estimated July 1 2008 population.

City specific (NOT MSA's); cities 50,000K+:

1 - Charlotte 687,456

2 - Raleigh 392,552

3 - Greensboro 250,642

4 - Durham 223,284

5 - Winston-Salem 217,600

6 - Fayetteville 174,091

7 - Cary 129,545

8 - High Point 101,835

9 - Wilmington 100,192

10 - Greenville 79,629

11 - Jacksonville 76,233

12 - Asheville 74,543

13 - Gastonia 72,505

14 - Concord 66,311

15 - Rocky Mount 57,010

16 - Chapel Hill 52,542

17 - Burlington 50,857

State 9,222,414

Sidestepping recession effects, the rates of increase in Charlotte and Raleigh will push them over 700K and 400K respectively by the next census.

Notably, High Point and Wilmington have both officially crossed the 100K mark. Greenville's sustained rate of growth through the decade has been far higher than other cities of similar size in the state - at 2-to-3k a year, present rates sustained (that is, the rate of growth sustained through the last 10 years) would put it very close to 100K by the 2020 census. The last time I was in Greenville, I was struck by how new (and sprawly) everything there was; the old parts of the city are quite small.

Gastonia and Asheville were among the ten largest NC cities for most of the 20th century, Asheville was - at one point in the early decades of the century - 4th largest. Greenville (which only 10th largest a couple years ago) may have permamently displaced them.

After several years of stagnant growth, the rates of increase in Rocky Mount and Wilson (48K) have slighly accelerated in recent years - I wonder if they are becoming exurbs to Raleigh. I've seen - in recent years - developments in both cities (including some small pioneering infill, instead of sprawly stuff) being marketed in Raleigh papers and real estate rags, though the recession may have dented that considerably.

None of these figures reflect any annexations that may have gone into effect SINCE July 1, 2008.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Correct me if I am wrong, but using the old 2003 MSA definitions, in 2010, Raleigh-Cary had a population of 1,128,000 people; Charlotte-Gastonia had 1,758,000 people; Winston-Salem MSA had 477,817 people; Greensboro had a population of 723,801; Fayetteville had 319,431 people; and Durham had 504,357. Charlotte MSA number is an estimate because the 2010 population figures for York County, SC have not yet been released. Feel free to calculate and add other NC MSAs herein...

[cityboi]

I'd like to see where the (CMSA) Combined Metropolitan Statistical Areas stand. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point and the other counties remains intact as a CMSA. Same for the Triangle cities.

Those 2009 estimates were also off quite a bit for some cities in NC. The 2009 estimate for Greensboro was 250,000 but the 2010 census population is 269,666. I don't recall Greensboro annexing 10,000 people between July 2009 and 2010. There was a mass annexation in Greensboro recently but I think it was before the 2009 estimates.

[Euphorius]

I added the numbers up for the Triangle and Triad CMSA. The Triad was 1,599,477 and The Triangle was 1,749,525. This was done quickly, so not 100% sure of the accuracy.

[cityboi]

I added the numbers up for the Triangle and Triad CMSA. The Triad was 1,599,477 and The Triangle was 1,749,525. This was done quickly, so not 100% sure of the accuracy.

roughly 150,000 more people which isn't that much larger. But i'm sure the gap could widen.

[krazeeboi]

Could widen? More like it is widening. The Triangle is growing a good bit faster than the Triad. It was only a few years ago that the Triad was actually larger.

[twincity]

I'd like to see where the (CMSA) Combined Metropolitan Statistical Areas stand. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point and the other counties remains intact as a CMSA. Same for the Triangle cities.

Those 2009 estimates were also off quite a bit for some cities in NC. The 2009 estimate for Greensboro was 250,000 but the 2010 census population is 269,666. I don't recall Greensboro annexing 10,000 people between July 2009 and 2010. There was a mass annexation in Greensboro recently but I think it was before the 2009 estimates.

The estimate released in 2009 was for the prior year, 2008.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

The literal gap is not what is important, it is the longterm growth rate, and it is clear that not only is the Triangle growing much faster than the Triad, but the Triangle is growing faster than just about any other metro in the entire nation!

[aceboogie]

The literal gap is not what is important, it is the longterm growth rate, and it is clear that not only is the Triangle growing much faster than the Triad, but the Triangle is growing faster than just about any other metro in the entire nation!

The Triangle is definitely growing faster percentage wise. It's incredible. But Charlotte is adding more residents than Raleigh numerically. I do see the Triangle and Triad gap widening. That's not saying the Triad is doing anything bad or is not growing. But compared to Charlotte and Raleigh, the growth is not fast or as much.