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distortedlogic

SC Counties with 500k

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I was looking back over some population estimate numbers and thought this would be interesting to toss around. I think there was a thread somewhere about which county would be the first to reach 1MM, but this is a little more immediate. Just to set the table, I meant for this thread to be an opinion thread, so there is no point in our arguing over county populations. These are the 2007 estimates for the top 11 counties in SC:

1. Greenville: 428,243

2. Richland: 357,734

3. Charleston: 342,973

4. Spartanburg: 275,534

5. Horry: 249,925

6. Lexington: 243,270

7. York: 208,827

8. Anderson: 179,981

9. Berkley: 163,622

10. Aiken: 152,307

11. Beaufort: 147.316

One thing I notice is that each of the top 4 big Metros in the state are represented, even in the top 5.

So which of these (or others) counties will reach the 500k mark within most of our lifetimes (say 2050 since it is a good round number)? In which order do you think they will happen? Will counties like Horry, York, or Beaufort leap frog others?

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Greenville. Richland. Maybe Charleston.

Beaufort, Berkeley, and Horry will probably do some leaping eventually, but not for many years to come.

For reference: SC County Population Estimates

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Interesting estimate chart, but I still think they are waaay to low on some of the estimates.

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Well, they're just projections :)

But for the sake of arguement, whydo you say that?

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Greenville. Richland. Charleston. Horry. I think York may get there too.

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I like dealing with actual numbers.

This is amazing when you consider that the Myrtle Beach metro area basically consists of the Grand Strand and Conway and it was the only area in SC to rank with NC in the top 10. If this keeps up, then by 2050, this will be the most urbanized area in the state, by far. I think high gas prices will put a big dent in the sprawing growth that makes up the most of the rest of the development in SC.

2007metro_percent.png

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I think high gas prices will put a big dent in the sprawing growth that makes up the most of the rest of the development in SC.

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Interesting estimate chart, but I still think they are waaay to low on some of the estimates.

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I like dealing with actual numbers.

This is amazing when you consider that the Myrtle Beach metro area basically consists of the Grand Strand and Conway and it was the only area in SC to rank with NC in the top 10. If this keeps up, then by 2050, this will be the most urbanized area in the state, by far. I think high gas prices will put a big dent in the sprawing growth that makes up the most of the rest of the development in SC.

2007metro_percent.png

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....And, I agree that the Grand Strand will be more effected by economical hardship than much of the rest of the state.

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You mean less affected. The thing about Myrtle Beach that has been proven over decades is that it does well even during really tough economic times. That is because when things get tough, people who can no longer afford to go there, are replaced by those who would have gone to more exotic destinations.

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Getting back on topic...

  1. Greenville

  2. Richland

  3. Charleston

Other notables that will definitely be worth watching over the next few decades include:
  • Spartanburg

  • Lexington

  • York

  • Horry

  • Anderson

  • Dorchester

  • Beaufort

  • Orangeburg

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Myrtle Beach is definitely not immune to sprawl. The Grand Strand's sprawl chokes the roads almost year round and becomes a nightmare in the summer. The worst part is that the nature of the area being a tourist Mecca doesn't mean congestion at various times during the day like the rest of the state. Trickling traffic is a problem ALL day. What sort of transit plans does Myrtle Beach have in place to combat the growing traffic problem of what Monsoon calls the state's soon-to-be most urbanized area? Sounds more like a nightmare.

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....What sort of transit plans does Myrtle Beach have in place to combat the growing traffic problem of what Monsoon calls the state's soon-to-be most urbanized area? Sounds more like a nightmare.

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I think Charleston County is low b/c much of it will depend on infill & not 'new growth' as Greenville has more room.

But - I would agree that the projections do not appear to consider future growth patterns. Consider that Lancaster County is only projected to grow a little over 10k in 30 years? Or for that matter York County which the future projections indicate York County's growth will significantly slow down, even by 2010 (most likely York already has nearly 205k people).

I'm curious on how they model the population projection. It does state that the projections assume a: "continuation of current state trends in fertility, mortality, and internal and international migration." But I would wonder if they are projecting the population on the state or county level rather than from the census tract level, because their projections are very conservative for high growth areas like Charlotte metro region & beach counties. The projected populations for York, Chester, Lancaster, Horry, Clarendon, Colleton, Georgetown, Beaufort are way down. They use a stagnant growth rate that only slightly declines - Horry Co is projected around 25k per 5 years, Beaufort 15k per 5 years, & York 15k to 20k per 5 years.

Ok, sorry for the rant....

My picks for when counties hit 500k by 2050?

1. Greenville

2. Richland

3. Charleston

4. Horry

5. Lexington

6. Spartanburg - not that I think the county is declining, but Horry & Lexington have more desirable developable land.

Coming close will be York & Beaufort.

My take on Myrtle Beach? I don't think Horry County is going to grow just because of Myrtle Beach, I think the central part of the county around Conway will be home to hundreds of retirement developments, not necessarily along the beach. I just hope the county can preserve the inland bays & other sensitive ecological areas.

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Well if Greenville County gains at least 12,000 per year like it has in the past 2-3 years then wouldnt it only take about 7-8 years to reach 500,000 from where we are at right now?

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Lexington and Kershaw counties are going to grow only because of Columbia, not because of Lexington nor Camden.

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The Census Bureau is notoriously conservative when it comes to estimating growth. SC's growth since 2000 has far outpaced the projections.

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Well if Greenville County gains at least 12,000 per year like it has in the past 2-3 years then wouldnt it only take about 7-8 years to reach 500,000 from where we are at right now?

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The Census Bureau is notoriously conservative when it comes to estimating growth. SC's growth since 2000 has far outpaced the projections.

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The numbers from the link I posted are from the SC Office of Research & Statistics. I would trust them more than those of the Census, simply because I think our state government has a better idea of what is going on here than some statistician in Washington.

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I was looking back over some population estimate numbers and thought this would be interesting to toss around. I think there was a thread somewhere about which county would be the first to reach 1MM, but this is a little more immediate. Just to set the table, I meant for this thread to be an opinion thread, so there is no point in our arguing over county populations. These are the 2007 estimates for the top 11 counties in SC:

1. Greenville: 428,243

2. Richland: 357,734

3. Charleston: 342,973

4. Spartanburg: 275,534

5. Horry: 249,925

6. Lexington: 243,270

7. York: 208,827

8. Anderson: 179,981

9. Berkley: 163,622

10. Aiken: 152,307

11. Beaufort: 147.316

One thing I notice is that each of the top 4 big Metros in the state are represented, even in the top 5.

So which of these (or others) counties will reach the 500k mark within most of our lifetimes (say 2050 since it is a good round number)? In which order do you think they will happen? Will counties like Horry, York, or Beaufort leap frog others?

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Let's keep in mind that a population estimate is just that. It's an estimate of current population that uses the last census numbers as a base and then some formula to determine current population. It says nothing about the future.

A population projection is a guess at what future population will be also based against some base and some formula.

There can be a wide variety of results depending upon the criteria used for the calculations.

The US Census publishes how they do it on their website. One can decide if they choose to believe the way they do it or not. The other agencies usually don't post how they come up with the numbers. Most of the time they will over-estimate the numbers otherwise there is no reason for them to do the calculations.

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True, though any public agency is obligated to provide that information if you ask for it. And having worked with those formulas before, I can tell you that they are just an educated guess. Thats one of the problems with the future population... you can't predict exactly what will happen. For all we know, Spartanburg will land a Fortune 500 type of company next year and skip past every other county in the state :) That's also what makes the future so interesting... you never know what will happen.

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