2035 Triangle Regional Transit Vision Plan

[Green_man]

It's getting kinda ridiculous and maybe even counterproductive to the discussion when even professional journalists are getting confused between commuter rail and light rail.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2014/02/05/am-slot---rtp-rail-could-cost-650m.html?page=all

 

I wonder if it would be beneficial for TTA to take an approach to differentiate better between the two for a better public perception.  Something like calling the commuter rail the Red Line and the light rail could be the Blue Line?

[DanRNC]

I heard people say they thought it was going to be a subway. The problem is you have a disinformation campaign led by the Locke Foundation controlling the discussion. 

Also, the Business Journal writers aren't the greatest in the world. 

[ERJ170]

I agree with everyone above, but I think RTP need both light rail and commuter service...

Light rail that goes around Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill.. Core RTP..

Light rail should have stops in downtowns, significant living areas, and sporting/entertainment venues

Light rails should have stops every 3-5 minutes

Commuter rail that connects Garner, Clayton, Hilsborough, Wake Forest, Pittsboro, Fuquay Varina, and Willow Spring...

Commuter rails should have stops in downtowns and city carpool areas

Commuter rails should have stops every 15-20 minutes

Their should be a circulator bus that runs around RTP that makes a circle every 20 minutes.. Maybe even 2 or 3 (Blue Line, Black Line, Red Line) that all convene at the RTDepot Station where light rail, commuter rail, and circulator buses converge. Circulator buses should be free and companies pay annually baed on number of employees (1-199 = X a year, 200-500 = XX a year, 501-1500 =XXX, AND 1501+ = XXXX year)

[DanRNC]

^Commuter rail should even stretch as far as Burlington/Mebane.

[Atowwn]

I have recently read lite rail in Charlotte is running into some serious problems. Money problems mostly. Revenue shortfalls. Some of the other lines are on hold. For a while if not killed all together. My reason for bringing this up is. We all know Coble and his crew will beat us over the head with this. And say how they saved us all.

[Jones_]

I am trying to come up with useful indexes with which to refute these sorts of things. The first one that popped in my head doesn't seem to be a statistic used by anyone. Cost of the infrastructure/miles of it/users of it over a unit time. What are common indexes? I keep running across "the true cost of driving" stuff but it never gets indexed in a comparable way to other modes. I realize that things like affect on property tax are very hard to account for but are also significant considerations. With the right data presented the right way, it should be easy to take down Coble using his favorite method..waving around dollars. We all know that all modes of transportation are subsidized in some way...i.e. user fees showing up in taxes somehow, so to let him just get away with this dumbed down take down of mass transit options is infuriating. 

[Spatula]

I have recently read lite rail in Charlotte is running into some serious problems. Money problems mostly. Revenue shortfalls. Some of the other lines are on hold. For a while if not killed all together. My reason for bringing this up is. We all know Coble and his crew will beat us over the head with this. And say how they saved us all.

I cannot find any evidence for this online. They seem to be raising the transit fees to pay for new construction and for increased bus driver compensation. Looks like expansion out to University City is still happening. That will be a huge network benefit for the rail system, linking with the university. Where's the problem?

 

Worth noting that the proximity of NCSU to downtown Raleigh is much more favorable for a rail line. 2.3 miles as opposed to 19 miles. For reference downtown Raleigh to downtown Durham is ~25 miles. I think the distribution of highlight areas along the corridor from downtown Raleigh to Durham is also more immediately conducive to rail service. The airport is along the way. The fairgrounds are along the way. RTP is along the way. NCSU and NCCU are on the line as well. Duke just beyond downtown Durham. It just seems like a very solid corridor already with many uses, whereas Charlotte's hotspots are not so conveniently linear.

Edited February 16, 2014 by Spatula

[Atowwn]

I cannot find any evidence for this online. They seem to be raising the transit fees to pay for new construction and for increased bus driver compensation. Looks like expansion out to University City is still happening. That will be a huge network benefit for the rail system, linking with the university. Where's the problem?

 

Worth noting that the proximity of NCSU to downtown Raleigh is much more favorable for a rail line. 2.3 miles as opposed to 19 miles. For reference downtown Raleigh to downtown Durham is ~25 miles. I think the distribution of highlight areas along the corridor from downtown Raleigh to Durham is also more immediately conducive to rail service. The airport is along the way. The fairgrounds are along the way. RTP is along the way. NCSU and NCCU are on the line as well. Duke just beyond downtown Durham. It just seems like a very solid corridor already with many uses, whereas Charlotte's hotspots are not so conveniently linear.

[Atowwn]

I also think the route is perfect for rail. One main route from Garner to Chapel Hill. Almost a straight line. I was just pointing out the problems with the Charlotte rail line. Mr Coble and his crew will be sure to bring up. The problem is not with line under construction. The street car first phase or the line to uncc. But the lines after those are in trouble. I got this info from a Charlotte resident who keeps up with all things transit. He thinks they will have to raise taxes. Let's hope not. If Coble gets wind of that we will here that again. I am a big supporter of transit. And know it's very important to the triangles future. Just not confident in our leaders to lead. And all the old school thinking is just looking for an excuse.

[DanRNC]

Well the Triangle is going to have start pushing soon as the events of the last couple of days have exposed major infrastructure problems of the region. A little bit of snow shuts down everything like it was a major catastrophe. The economy came to a grinding halt and the Duke basketball team couldn't even make it 8 miles to Chapel Hill on a major roadway. If this was the first time and only time  this happened so be it, but this has occurred repeatedly. A wreck on I-40 will literally shut down movement on this highway from Raleigh to Chapel Hill but the powers that be insist everything is fine. How does this seem like an attractive option for prospective residents/businesses? 

[Jones_]

Ironically those same cars fueled those Union salaries they all rail against (pun intended) so much. Anyway, economic growth by way of pavement is now on the side of the graph of diminishing returns. Snow should not shut down a region for essentially two day but it did. That lost output can be quantified. That would not have been nearly as large with a weather proof transit system in place. 

[Atowwn]

Well the good news is I think Coble and his other three road blocks are up for re-election this year. Mayor Mcfarlane say she will actively campaign against anyone of them who tries to block transit moving forward. Let's hope she has the pull that she and I think she dose. Let's also hope private sector pressure along with all the other Mayors of the triangle can move this forward. I think we are in a good place in triangle now.as far as traffic.Not bad at all in comparison to places like Charlotte and Atlanta.Who both planned poorly. Now look at the mess they have.We can do better.If we don't move now at least we know what it will look like in 10-15 years!

[DanRNC]

I think traffic problems in Raleigh are comparable to Charlotte's, if not worse. I have never seen such bottlenecks on an interstate as I used to encounter on I-40. I can't remember how many times my trips to Raleigh from Chapel Hill/Durham were aborted  because of this. I remember the occasion when it took Bill Bell 3 hours to get to Raleigh while the mayor of Charlotte did it in less time for the same meeting. I had a 1.5 hour trip from Durham to Cary as well. Totally disgraceful. The argument that traffic is worse elsewhere is irrelevant. 

[Atowwn]

I'm not sure how long it has been since you have been in the area. Bad traffic is not an every day thing. At least not as bad as you described. 40 is a lot better than it was. Added another lane a while ago on both sides. 540 is almost never a real problem. Going away from RTP. I take 40 home every one in a while mostly 540 tho. I work on Globe rd and live new bern& new hope rd. I cross Raleigh everyday. I would know. Also I'm a truck driver local. Raleigh's traffic is nowhere near as bad as Charlotte's and Atlanta forget about it. But on the path we are on our time is coming. The good news is republican road block Tony Gurlly is not running for re-election this go round. So maybe someone with a brain and a little vision can get his seat.

[Euphorius]

The toll section of 540 isn't a problem, but it's stop and go from Capital to Glenwood every morning. 40 is better since they added the extra lane, but it's still slow moving during both rush hours. Our traffic definitely isn't as bad as Atlanta, but it is close to being as bad as Charlotte. I travel all across the Triangle for work, and I have to add 30 minutes to the time my GPS says it will take me to get to my destination every morning. Sometimes that still isn't enough extra time.

[ctl]

... places like Charlotte and Atlanta.Who both planned poorly. 

 

Note that Atlanta spent roughly two billion dollars (in today's money) on MARTA rail, which opened in 1979 and now has 47 miles of track. The system carries 230,000 riders a day, or basically 115, 000 people a day, in the two counties it serves with a population of 1.7 million. That's only a 7% market share. But the market share of MARTA rail is zero in the other counties where the other 3.5 million people live. It has made no difference in how the region developed. 

Edited February 18, 2014 by ctl

[Jones_]

Road limitations are well known.... Roads have a finite safe carrying capacity. Mostly inbound/outbound commuting promulgated by the zoning/planning/land use folks further exacerbates road dependance with one direction heavily underutilized during each rush hour. The need to move people is not a given but given "no difference" part of how things will develop, we can assume this separation of uses will remain and at some point the number of people a given area can support in this way is always reached. And hence sprawl. And then encroachment on water supply areas...and food production and wildlife, etc etc. So given that capitalism requires growth to work (not a given for an economy to work), then growth will be continuous until one of the legs on this wobbly chair finally gives out. If we are all going to make it on this here finite planet, one of two things has to happen. Either growth stops or we keep packing ourselves into tighter and tighter spaces with all the accoutrements of dense living. Presumably transit will come in way after it should have, but it will have to, to support us all or a massive contraction will happen. Those of us who can see that would prefer the transit options now as opposed to later in the effort to stave off the broken leg of that wobbly stool. 

[Atowwn]

Durham and Orange moving forward. Come on Wake! Wake up

[kermit]

FTA has approved development work for Durham / Orange LRT

http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/morning_call/2014/02/major-durham-orange-light-rail-project.html?ana=e_trig_rdup&s=newsletter&ed=2014-02-26

[orulz]

To review, we had made it much farther than this point in 2006 when the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) killed our regional rail project.

The process for New Starts has changed since then, but there are still 3 points in the project where the FTA reviews the project and gives a go/no go decision. Typically there are several years of planning and study that must go on between each stage of review.

This (2014) is the first stage of review and approval. The article mentions that the second phase of review, which happens after the Environmental Impact Study is complete, is not likely to occur for at least two more years (2016). Back then (2006) the project was canceled at the third (FINAL) stage of review after about 9 years of planning and study.

A few years prior to the 2006 cancellation, the project had entered into what, in retrospect, was sort of a death spiral. As I recall, the sequence of events was as follows:

• Cost estimates exceeded initial projections

  -->This reduced the cost effectiveness of the project

• Local funding sources fell short of projections

  -->The total $ asked from the FTA stayed the same, but the federal share increased from 50% to over 60%

  ---->This lead to increased federal scrutiny of the project

• The project scope was reduced to deal with the increased costs and decreased local funding

  -->This decreased projected ridership and further reduced its cost effectiveness

• Likely due to the increased scrutiny above, FTA mandated more pessimistic methods of forecasting ridership and evaluating project benefits

  -->This reduced projected ridership even further. This further decreased the cost effectiveness of the project.

• All of this lead to a cost effectiveness rating of "Low" and the cancellation of the project.

We may be better positioned now than we were then. The evaluation criteria are more friendly to projects like ours. Plus, the Durham/Orange transit sales tax wasn't there before. Many people speculated that, had there been a greater local commitment of money (transit sales tax) and more clear local support (the referendum that preceded the sales tax) then the project would not have entered that death spiral in the first place.

On the other hand, the population centers of Wake County are excluded from this project. The western half of the triangle, the Durham/Chapel Hill MSA, comprises only 1/3 of the total population of the Triangle area. (Durham/Chapel Hill MSA: 522,000; Raleigh/Cary MSA: 1,118,000). So it will be interesting to see how this goes.

[49er]

This is exciting news, although it stinks that it is probably 10 years out best case. If Wake passed a sales tax, I would bet that the revenue from the 3 counties in the triangle would eclipse what is currently collect here in Mecklenburg and would create some serious transit funding firepower. 

[DanRNC]

^^ If I remember correctly the Bush administration had changed the criteria at the last minute that resulted in the "low rating". Charlotte had been smart enough to get their sh-t together and submitted their proposal before this change. TTA kind of did their usual "ho hum aw shucks" routine while the world passed by. Maybe this time they aren't so incompetent but we will see. 10 years to get this rolling is an optimistic projection. 

[DanRNC]

These are the groups you can thank for lack of mass transit.  

 

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/03/25/3732162/road-builders-research-group-calls.html?sp=/99/100/&ihp=1

[Spatula]

Note that Atlanta spent roughly two billion dollars (in today's money) on MARTA rail, which opened in 1979 and now has 47 miles of track. The system carries 230,000 riders a day, or basically 115, 000 people a day, in the two counties it serves with a population of 1.7 million. That's only a 7% market share. But the market share of MARTA rail is zero in the other counties where the other 3.5 million people live. It has made no difference in how the region developed. 

Contrast that with Portland's light rail, which started in 1987, has 57 miles of track in a metro of 2.2 million, and 12.6% use. Portland's transit system has significantly influenced how the region has developed.

 

The lesson to take from this is that rail by itself is not enough. The city has to engage in deliberate land-use regulation for anything to come of transit. Same could be said for Washington DC's system, which is another success story that can't be ignored. The other lesson is that you get what you pay for. Portland and DC both spent more on their systems than Atlanta. A system has to be large enough to offer network benefits.

[ctl]

Yes, Portland is a success (I've ridden the trains there). The cumulative investment in Portland rail is on the order of $5 billion in today's dollars. I have a hard time imagining that in Wake County. And if you do have to drive somewhere in Portland -- for example, if your business must deliver goods by truck -- the nature of the infrastructure there does not look nearly so appealing.

 

In defense of Atlanta, where I lived 1972-86 (and rode MARTA trains there too), they spent all the money on the rail system that the Jimmy Carter administration could pump in from DC and that they could raise locally.

 

As for DC, of course it's true that District itself is much better off today than in 1975. But if you look at the development of Northern Virginia during the same period, I don't think anyone can rationally claim that investment in WMATA prevented sprawl there, either. Likewise across the river from Gaithersburg to Frederick or College Park to Columbia.