2035 Triangle Regional Transit Vision Plan

[RALNATIVE]

To be honest, I think that the biggest issue for those who oppose light rail is the thought that it may lead to more integrated communities and larger numbers of South and Southeastern Raleigh residents spreading throughout the city. Certain areas of Raleigh have tried to remain as isolated as possible for as long as possible to prevent the rift raft from moving in. They see light rail as a huge risk to their way of life.

[orulz]

That was a big argument against MARTA in Atlanta but I'm not convinced that it's as prominent here. At least I've not heard anyone mention it directly or even really allude to it.

 

Most people who I have talked to directly about light rail plans over the past decade either don't know about it, don't care about it, or just complain that the route doesn't go to the airport.

[ctl]

Not going to the airport is bad, except for people in north Raleigh/north Wake who wouldn't ride light rail through downtown Raleigh and downtown Cary to reach RDU anyway. (Light rail down the median of 540, well, wouldn't that be interesting.) 

 

But it appears that the RDU board is more interested in being a developer of hotels and commercial office parks than actually running an airport for purposes of transportation.

[DanRNC]

Now that the sale tax cap has been shot down, the citizens of Wake County should call the bluff of the County Commissioners who were going to hide behind this to prevent the referendum on the transit tax.  

[Jones_]

I missed the sales tax cap not making it through. Link? That had me flaming mad. Straight out of the Koch war chest and into the senate playbook I thought for sure it was a done deal. Did the gov wrestle that one down? I was walking past Burke Square yesterday and he was in the driveway laughing it up with an entourage of some sort who all appeared to have a victory of some sort fresh on their minds...

[orulz]

Well, the budget deal that failed is the one that contained the sales tax cap. 

 

The sales tax issue was a bone of contention with the budget but far from the main one that caused it to fail - seems it was the business incentives component that did that. Not sure the likelyhood that a sales tax cap will be back for the next incarnation of the budget.

 

The latest sales tax cap in the budget was going to be followed up by a bill (House Bill 189) to give Wake county until 2016 to enact the .75% tax hikes for education and transit. But then the budget failed altogether so who knows where that leaves us.

[DanRNC]

The gov and the rogues gallery (Tillis and Berger) lost the support of their base who actually voted against the bill. I have a feeling McCorny is one and done in NC. 

[Jones_]

I think McCory just saved himself with the ash pond deal that just was announced. Regardless of State leadership, Coble remains the keystone to the transit bill being heard here and the yahoos in the far flung reaches around here still seem to think that transit money is a roundabout way to try to force themto part ways with their white F-150s

[Spatula]

McCrory signed away his second term when he signed the anti-abortion law and broke his campaign promise to the moderates and democrats who jumped the aisle for him in 2012. These people saw him as the urban candidate: as an acceptable alternative to the rural eastern NC dems who had run the state for so long and had fallen out of touch with the progressive dems in the piedmont cities. He shattered that facade in his first year and I don't think he can do anything to recover.

 

What do you guys think about Meeker running in 2016?

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/03/18/3712336_looking-ahead-to-2016-charles.html?rh=1

Edited August 20, 2014 by Spatula

[DanRNC]

With NC in the state it is right now, I don't know if Meeker can win. You need a good ol boy who can appeal to the rural areas. I think the the Charlotte style of governance is dead and gone though (McCorny, Tillis, Rucho). 

[kdub1]

McCrory signed away his second term when he signed the anti-abortion law and broke his campaign promise to the moderates and democrats who jumped the aisle for him in 2012. These people saw him as the urban candidate: as an acceptable alternative to the rural eastern NC dems who had run the state for so long and had fallen out of touch with the progressive dems in the piedmont cities. He shattered that facade in his first year and I don't think he can do anything to recover.

 

What do you guys think about Meeker running in 2016?

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/03/18/3712336_looking-ahead-to-2016-charles.html?rh=1

 

I don't know about McCrory being one and done: you have to remember that for all of the talk of how "progressive" NC has been, the truth is that this state is actually a laggard. This state was the last Southern state to complete the Nixon-Reagan realignment. For years, people talked about moderate-to-conservative business Dems still being in control of the party. Once Jim Hunt retired and Erskine Bowles fell flat on his face--twice--that business wing slowly switched parties. It's likely that the business wing of Democratic Party has completely defected to the elephants (hence, the realignment that started in 1968 nationally finally completed its course in NC in 2012). If anyone ousts McCrory, it will be done in the primary by people who genuinely believe that the idiots in the General Assembly haven't done enough damage .

 

As a result, I don't think that Meeker's going to run in '16. Instead, I truly believe that Roy Cooper is setting himself up to be the sacrificial lamb in two years' time. Once, the state has seen how ineffective McCrory has been for eight years, 2020 could be a bad year for Republicans.

[ctl]

There's a fine line between quantitative political forecasting and wishful thinking, especially if one's friends, work colleagues, and neighbors share political opinions. The truth is, nobody knows what will happen in 2016 or 2020. In December 2008, no Democrat in North Carolina imagined that their party (and mine) would melt down in 2010 and 2012. Nor did any NC Republican seriously believe that their party would seize the governor's office and both sides of the General Assembly and would be able to redistrict the state to the Republicans' advantage -- all within four years. It happened.

 

As they say in sports, you play the game to find out who wins.

Edited August 21, 2014 by ctl

[Spatula]

With NC in the state it is right now, I don't know if Meeker can win. You need a good ol boy who can appeal to the rural areas. I think the the Charlotte style of governance is dead and gone though (McCorny, Tillis, Rucho). 

 

Purdue's failure as a candidate the first time around, and her failure as a governor hinged on that. The good ol boy formula was used for the past century and it isn't working anymore. The rural areas no longer support democrats, regardless of the candidate they run with. They need to recognize their new constituency. It's younger, it's more urban, and it's more socially progressive than the candidates they've been running. If they don't appeal to their own base you can look forward to a hundred years of the current situation.

 

I think Cooper's in a better position to win the primary and contest McCrory, but I think a candidate like Meeker is fully electable in this state.

 

 

I don't know about McCrory being one and done: you have to remember that for all of the talk of how "progressive" NC has been, the truth is that this state is actually a laggard. This state was the last Southern state to complete the Nixon-Reagan realignment. For years, people talked about moderate-to-conservative business Dems still being in control of the party. Once Jim Hunt retired and Erskine Bowles fell flat on his face--twice--that business wing slowly switched parties. It's likely that the business wing of Democratic Party has completely defected to the elephants (hence, the realignment that started in 1968 nationally finally completed its course in NC in 2012). If anyone ousts McCrory, it will be done in the primary by people who genuinely believe that the idiots in the General Assembly haven't done enough damage .

 

As a result, I don't think that Meeker's going to run in '16. Instead, I truly believe that Roy Cooper is setting himself up to be the sacrificial lamb in two years' time. Once, the state has seen how ineffective McCrory has been for eight years, 2020 could be a bad year for Republicans.

 

Bear in mind this state is also more competitive in presidential elections than it ever was before. To a large extent in the past we were a deeply red state, but controlled by 'business democrats' as you say. I'm not in the camp that thinks this was ever a progressive state, and it certainly isn't now. But it is a more evenly balanced state than you're portraying. Everyone who kept up with the polls saw what was coming in 2010 and 2012. And while Republicans will try to paint 2012 as a mandate, it's anything but. They control 9 of the 13 congressional seats despite getting fewer votes. They control the state house by a huge majority despite the state-level vote being pretty much 50-50. Their grip on the state government is from gerrymandering, not from a popular mandate. Every state-level office they hold should be extremely vulnerable.

[Spatula]

There's a fine line between quantitative political forecasting and wishful thinking, especially if one's friends, work colleagues, and neighbors share political opinions. The truth is, nobody knows what will happen in 2016 or 2020. In December 2008, no Democrat in North Carolina imagined that their party (and mine) would melt down in 2010 and 2012. Nor did any NC Republican seriously believe that their party would seize the governor's office and both sides of the General Assembly and would be able to redistrict the state to the Republicans' advantage -- all within four years. It happened.

 

As they say in sports, you play the game to find out who wins.

 

...And no Republican imagined that a Black man could win the state in a presidential election. I think many of us saw the state slowly shifting in that direction, but we thought it would be another decade or two before such things were possible. It's important to be skeptical, but there's a point where skepticism morphs into cynicism. True skepticism is neutral. It acknowledges the positives as well as the negatives.

[ctl]

Their grip on the state government is from gerrymandering, not from a popular mandate. Every state-level office they hold should be extremely vulnerable.

 

Let's remember the sequence of events. First, in 2010 Republicans got the power to gerrymander by beating Democrats under the very precinct structure defined by Democrats in 2001. Effectively the Democratic Party didn't show up for the race in 2010, but otherwise it was a fair race. The Democrats simply lost. Only after 2010 did Republicans reinforce their power by gerrymandering. 

 

The good news: population flows will undermine the 2011 gerrymandering, as they did to the 2001 precincts. By 2020, many precincts will be competitive again that were not competitive in 2012 (and probably will not be competitive in 2014, either). Statewide numbers are an analgesic for Democrats but aren't relevant except to statewide races. To use the phrase associated with the late Tip O'Neill, all politics is local.

[orulz]

Seems that Wake County has hired Kimley-Horn and Jarret Walker (of Human Transit fame) to help come up with an updated transit plan.

 

This is fairly exciting. I have read his blog for years and there are a few themes he usually focuses on.

1. Transit should be considered first as transportation (rather than as a tool to encourage redevelopment or modify urban form)
2. Emphasize the effectiveness of the network rather than focusing on a particular mode (which, in practice, usually means bus service first and higher levels of investment as demand warrants)
3. Frequency is the most important factor for transit usability, with 10-15 minute all-day headways desirable on core routes if transit is to be truly usable.
4. When designing transit networks, a high-frequency grid with numerous connection points between different routes, rather than a hub/spoke system with a single primary transfer point, is usually better where possible.
5. There is an inherent conflict between maximizing geographic coverage and maximizing ridership. If you go for maximum ridership, only the most transit supportive areas will be covered (but covered very well). That can leave huge areas with no transit at all which may be unfeasible from a social justice or political standpoint.
6. Coverage/ridership is not a "problem" that can be solved by consultants, but rather a question of priorities that must be answered by elected officials.

It will be interesting to see his take on our transit situation.

[ctl]

The six bullets make sense to me. Whether this approach will win support for a tax increase among voters OTB who have been opposed/uncommitted so far, we shall have to wait and see.

[Jones_]

This is great. I have especially been an advocate increased frequency, getting rid of the hub and spoke model, and stop trying to get to the front door of every neighborhood and apartment building in town. 

[orulz]

As much as I didn't expect to be saying this a year ago, it seems that the Wake County commissioners are taking a very even-handed approach to transit planning. For now, it seems they really could be trying to get it right, rather than just putting on a dog-and-pony show in an election year, or just sandbagging it like I expected they might.

 

At the end of the day, a transit system that provides the greatest public benefit should be the goal. We should absolutely compare a capital-heavy plan with light rail and commuter rail and such, with one that focuses more on enhanced operations through things like route restructuring, increased frequency, while adding smaller capital improvements along the lines of bus lanes and such.

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

Opinions on the new transportation idea...ecoPRT...?

[RALNATIVE]

This should be in a separate thread.

[DanRNC]

Coble, Bryan, and Matthews gone-I guess their shenanigans didn't work out so well for them. 

[Jones_]

Coble, Bryan, and Matthews gone-I guess their shenanigans didn't work out so well for them. 

Beat me to it. All blue Commission. Hopefully plans move rapidly to a point of no return. 

[DanRNC]

I think this is the biggest election for Wake County residents, including the national ones. All politics are local. The parks bond was also a landslide, in favour which illustrates that the resident big mouths don't know the constituency.

[ctl]

Dems now have absolute control of Wake County Commission. Status quo on Jones Street, however. Outlook for federal funding for mass transit is worse. 

 

We will certainly see transit on the ballot in Wake, and soon. Questions are how much can Wake build and how quickly, given indifference/hostility at state and federal level.

 

I don't know of anyone who believed the Raleigh parks bond was seriously in doubt. 

 

Otherwise I would caution people not to make premature assessments based on the data posted this morning. It will take 5 or 6 weeks for early votes and absentee votes to be consolidated into the precinct-by-precinct totals. 

Edited November 5, 2014 by ctl