2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[richyb83 955]

It's already that time of the year again. Hurricane Season started officially yesterday on June 1st. Like we have always said in the past that this thread hopefully remains slow throughout the season.

Already Sat. May 31st one named storm, Arthur formed in the NW Carribean just east of Belize off the remnants of Tropical Storm Alma that crossed over Central America from the Pacific. As quickly as it formed over water it almost immediatlely made landfall with minimal 40mph winds. Eventhough the storm is weak Belize is still having major flood problems with 11 inches of rain the past 24 hours.

This reminds me of weak T.S. Allison back in 01'?? that dumped massive rainfall amounts over SE La. and Houston. Here in BR we had around 20 inches of rain in a 4 or 5 day span. The Tropical Storms that barely move can be just as dangerous as the Hurricanes sometimes.

Edited June 3, 2008 by richyb83

[richyb83 955]

I really did not want to post this...Tropical Storm Bertha is maintaining it's strength at 50 mph and racing toward the West at 20; mid-way between the Africa and the Leeward Islands(1185 miles); most computer models have it hooking more NW going in the general direction of the tiny island of Bermuda(later in week); this could possibly strenghten into a Cat #1 hurricane late Tuesday night??

This system looked impressive early last week as it treked across Africa; and turned into a T.S. soon after it went over the far Atlantic...this is typically early for systems to form that far out; usually in August

[NCB 1]

Thanks for posting the updated news on Bertha, Richy. Hopefully Slidell can give us some information when he gets the chance.

Bertha's projected path seems to have taken a significant northern turn over the last 24 hours. The first extended projections I saw 2-3 days ago had the storm heading towards the Carolinas, then in the direction of New Jersey, and now making a major turn towards Bermuda.

[richyb83 955]

No kiddin huh Nate; these storms seem to take-on a mind of their own! Bertha has already strenghtened into a Cat# 3 hurricane with 120mph sustained winds!! Good news is it seems to have peaked and should weaken some by the next advisory.

That's really cool the images you posted above update on their own

[NCB 1]

It looks like Bertha will swing to the East of Bermuda, but the island will probably still have a high chance of getting hit by Tropical Storm or higher winds. The storm is 2-3 days away and there's already a nearly 30% chance of that happening according to the NHC.

That's really cool the images you posted above update on their own

[SlidellWX 0]

Was actually down in the Virgin Islands when the storm developed. They didn't seem to care down there...so I wasn't very worried...even with little information to look at. It is an unusually early Cape Verde system...but anything can happen when it comes to weather.

[richyb83 955]

As always SlidellWX, thanks for your valuable imput

The tropics have really been active for mid-July....Bertha breaks a July record for longest lived storm now at 17 days!!! After brushing tiny-Bermuda w/ tropical storm winds as it moved back out it actually re-intensified into a 75mph hurricane. But Bertha's days are numbered crossing the cool Atlantic waters.

T.S. Cristobal(T.D. #3) just formed off the So.Carolina coast; 40mph(still weak) moving NE; will brush Cape Hatteras NC tommorrow; could strengthen some as it moves out to sea. This was an interesting system as it was over land drenching Florida before moving out into the open water.

A strong disturbance I have been watching for days(since it was in mid-Atlantic) is approaching the NW Carribbean south of Jamaica could form into T.D# 4 shortly; has the potential to become a T.S. before reaching the Yucatan peninsula; computer models(for now) have it entering the Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week(strength still uncertain??) and moving into northern Mexico just south of Brownsville TX.

A system that was just ahead of that one would have developed had it not went into Central America.

[SlidellWX 0]

TS Dolly has formed in the Northwest Caribbean. The system is expected to stay on a fairly consistent West-Northwest track and make landfall in northern Mexico or southern Texas on Thursday. Do not expect much impact from this system for the central Gulf Coast as a strong upper level ridge remains parked over the area. All of the forecast models are locked in the path toward the Rio Grande region, and this seems like a reasonable outlook.

[richyb83 955]

Wow, I wake up the next morning and it's already a Tropical Storm! Did it skip T.D. status altogether??

They(yall) bumped up rain chances to 40% Tuesday; and 50% Wed/Thurs....so I am hoping for at least some tropical rain-showers or even a downpour. Things are drying up quickly here with temps. in the mid 90's.

The Gulf of Mexico water-temp is probably like bath-water now!

T.S. Cristobal is ingesting lots of dry-air near the N.C. coast; making this one puny little system. They say winds are 50mph; I say where?? No off-shore bouy reports even come close to that range.

[richyb83 955]

The poorly defined center of Dolly is about to reach the Yucatan; there is a chance this will intensify as it enters the Gulf. Most models have Dolly landing near Brownsville TX; possibly as a 85 mph hurricane??

I see yall lowered the rain chances to 30%Tues; 20%Wed; 30% Thurs; oh well.

There is already talks of an impressive system still over Africa that could become a T.D. as soon as it gets into the Atlantic??

[SlidellWX 0]

The system off Africa will have a hard time getting organized as it is coming off the west coast farther north than expected. The water is much cooler in this region which should limit development. In addition...it appears that some Saharan dust is working into that area which will help keep water temps down a bit.

Dolly is booking along and should make landfall around Brownsville tomorrow night if it continues at present speed.

That was my forecast lowering the pops. We are in the zone of subsidence around Dolly which will limit the amount of convection across the region. Our next hope for good rains will be later this week when a weak back door cold front moves down from the Mid-South.

[richyb83 955]

Just a head's up.....There is a low-pressure centered about 160 miles south of Mobile AL (SE of Mouth of Miss. River). They are flying into this system as we speak to see if a tropical depression is forming. Conditions are only marginally favorable now; but could become more favorable by tommorrow?? Computer models take this system West/WSW and eventually into SE TX as a Tropical Storm(Eduard?).

[richyb83 955]

^ It is now T.D. #5. Looks like it could become Eduard tommorrow; making landfall Tuesday just below Galveston??

[NCB 1]

Just like that, T.D. #5 has already strengthened to Tropical Storm Edouard. Thankfully, it doesn't look like the storm will strengthen much before it makes landfall.

Tropical Storm alerts stretch from New Orleans to Corpus Christi, TX:

[richyb83 955]

Little did I know when I posted the head's up at 2:30 T.D #5 would become Eduard so quickly!!! The system dropped 5 millibars in an hour-and-a half; that's impressive! Now it seems it could be a strong T.S. about 70mph or even a Cat.1 hurricane before making landfall in SE TX???

Edited August 4, 2008 by richyb83

[SlidellWX 0]

TS Fay formed this afternoon. It is currently over the Dominican Republic...but a well defined center is hard to pick out. Unfortunately...this means that the models are little less reliable than usual. With this in mind...I'd say if you live from New Orleans to the Outer Banks of NC...continue to monitor this system. It is very evident that a trough will lift the system northward...but the exact location of the system as it begins the northward turn is highly suspect.

[richyb83 955]

Thanks for the head's up I was impressed Fay skipped T.D. status altogether. Hopefully she stays weaker as it crosses the mountainous terrain of Hispanola and Cuba. Even over land now Fay has some nice outflow; if this system was over the open water it has the look of a major player.

Earlier today(yesterday)I heard the crew from Stennis w/ NOGAP had this system making landfall at the LA/MS border; but it's still to early to know for sure; they don't want anybody in panic mode.

Alot of models have it going to the FLA panhandle; that could change alot between now and middle of next week.

Edited August 16, 2008 by richyb83

[richyb83 955]

WOW! T.S. Fay has been a remarkable storm! The "Joker". Intensifying over land in the Everglades; making landfall in Florida now for the 3rd time. Basically crawling across Florida. Dumping over 20" inches of rain in some places!!!!

Now the remants are forecasted to head in our direction by early in the week?? Skirt the Fla. Pahandle coast staying a T.S. til Pensacola??A T.D. in the vicinity of Hattiesburg Monday night or early Tuesday?? How much rain for SE La?? 25-35 mph wind gust for the MS/AL gulf coast??

What do you think SlidellWX??

[SlidellWX 0]

I think there could be some big time flooding on the Pearl River coming down from MS. Most models are pointing toward the system stalling over central MS. We probably won't get much down here in SELA...maybe a few rain bands...some breezy conditions...and maybe even warmer than normal temperatures if dry air is pulled down across the region.

[SlidellWX 0]

Well...throw my previous thoughts out the window. UA analysis is showing a much stronger ridge than expected. Looks like a more westerly track right into coastal MS and the Northshore now. With this westerly track...expect TS force winds to impact some parts of the region...primarily along the coast. Rain will be main player...and we could see some signficant amounts in the region. I'm think on the order of 4 to 6 inches in general. Areas north of the lake will get it worse than south of the lake.

[richyb83 955]

Wow! How quick things can change! Fay took a more northerly turn making landfall east of Destin...now just a Tropical Depression! Looks like some dry-air tore-up the west-side of the storm. The models still take the remnant-low in this general direction around McComb MS Monday morning.

I was hoping AL/GA/TN would get these big rains anyway; they sure can use it alot more than we can.

Edited August 24, 2008 by richyb83

[SlidellWX 0]

Well...even with the northerly track and weakening...we got TS force winds in New Orleans. Lakefront Airport recorded a wind gust of 42 knots or 46 mph today with sustained winds of 37 mph. Armstrong had a peak gust of 38 mph with sustained winds of 30 mph. Rainfall wise...around 1 to 2 inches of rain has fallen so far today. Expect another 2 to 4 inches of rain before tomorrow evening with some locally higher amounts.

[richyb83 955]

Thanks Slidell WX! Impressive wind gust for NOLA!!! Wonder what the gust was here in BR?? We had a couple of 30mph at least. We are now inside an intense/heavy rain-band ; the street is begining to flood. Very impressive rainfall amounts today. A little suprising after seeing the storm unravel yesterday.

[richyb83 955]

T.D.- Fay packed some punch; my rain gauge at the house had well over 4" of rain!!! Thankfully the remnant-low is headed out.

All eyes on Gustav in the Carribbean; this went from a disturbance to a legit T.S.(60mph) in just a few hours!! Headed toward Haiti & Cuba; hopefully this stays out of the Gulf??

[SlidellWX 0]

Gustav will enter the Gulf over the weekend...that I'm pretty confident on. If the ridge over FL remains in place early next week...it looks like the TX/LA coastline needs to be on the lookout. This thing could hit anywhere from Corpus to NO depending on just how strong the ridge remains. There are indications that a weak shortwave trough may pass through the Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday which may break down the ridge slightly. If that happens...a Louisiana landfall would be more likely. Given the high uncertainty beyond the next 3 days...I would say to monitor the storm and start getting prepared. Otherwise...go about life as normal.