2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[richyb83]

Thanks for the head's up SlidellWX. Gustav has my attention. I can only hope & pray this stays away from here.

Forecast for Gustav to cross northern Cuba coastline and enter the Gulf is not until Saturday around 8:00am. Is it safe to say the LSU Football game will still be played on Sat. afternoon at 4:00pm?? Main evacuation day would be Sunday?? If the storm hits the LA/TX coast would that be Tuesday AM.

Will some of the upper-level westerly winds be digging into the Gulf by then? Making it unfavorable for Gustav to become a monster??

I know it's still too early; don't mean to get ahead of myself with those questions. But you really narrowed it down; Wow! I had been thinking Tampico to Tallahasee.

Edited August 27, 2008 by richyb83

[BRPJ]

Oh no @ gustav. Of course its still early. but its not looking promising for the gulf coast, especially louisiana.

[SlidellWX]

Still just a wait and see situation at this point. There is a ton of variability in the models with some going east of us and other going west. Very few actually have a landfall location in Louisiana per the 00Z model runs. The official track is basically splitting the difference between the model spread.

[NCB]

As always, thanks for the updates, Slidell. Seems like most of the models are now pointing towards a Louisiana landfall somewhere between Morgan City and Lake Charles, but it's still too early to be sure about anything. No matter what, it looks like a whole lot of folks in south Louisiana will be affected by Gustav. Best of luck to everyone!

[richyb83]

The models that indicate Gustav slowing down before the coastline and trudging along inland is really what has me concerned. That could make for epic rainfall event. Storm surge is my concern for NOLA.

With the track still so uncertain I'm not understanding why?If it stays on that westerly track even Houston could be in the line of fire? Why would NOLA evacuees have to travel (contra-flow) West thru BR toward the storm?? Wouldn't they need to head north I-55 Jackson or I-59 Meridian; or even east I-10 to Mobile then Montgomery?? I thought I-49 north was for Houma, Morgan City, New Iberia, Lafayette,etc??

A very active tropics with T.S. Hanna headed toward the Bahamas as a hurricane. That future storm track looks whacked!

We're in the "Heart of Hurricane Season" now (peak date Sept.10th); and this season means business with a few more disturbances in the far Atlantic and over Africa. Wouldn't be suprised to see Ike & Joesphine out of some of those.

Edited August 30, 2008 by richyb83

[Lowerdeck]

Bad news for Louisiana, though those of you already there know this: Gustav is now a Category 4 south of Cuba (145 mph winds).

If it's already at 145 now, I would expect it to be at least a strong Category 3 if not Category 4 during much of its journey through the Gulf.

[dimebag1980]

Bad news for Louisiana, though those of you already there know this: Gustav is now a Category 4 south of Cuba (145 mph winds).

If it's already at 145 now, I would expect it to be at least a strong Category 3 if not Category 4 during much of its journey through the Gulf.

[Lowerdeck]

It likely (at this rate, being so close now) be a Cat 5 over open waters, but only three storms have hit land (in the US) as 5s. Katrina was not even one. It is so rare for that to happen, right now Gustav is not on that level. You need the second coming of Camille for that, something that before washing ashore is so powerful that the shallow waters near the shoreline don't knock it down significantly enough.

It's over Cuba right now, but flat land and not for long. Should come back into the Gulf a major hurricane, then strengthen some more.

[Guest]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but there is a new, very frightening model out. It predicts Gustav coming where its being predicted, but thats not the frightening part, even though thats certainly frightening. The model also has hannah skirting south of Florida, and taking gustavs path and hitting Lousiana as well, on the seventh, god I pray this doesn't happen.

Edited August 31, 2008 by Guest

[richyb83]

Wow, thanks for the head's up nibledotell; that's scary!!! Can't worry about Hannah yet with Gustav breathing down our neck.

Gustav turned into a monster today with 150mph winds; just crossed over western Cuba now into the southern Gulf with winds of 140mph!

As of now they have it making landfall close to Morgan City as a Cat #4 sometime Monday?? Given the current projected path inland; I am even worried here in Baton Rouge. How close will that eye pass here?? I'm not used to hearing forecast that say 75-90mph wind gust. I was hoping we wouldn't see gust over 70. Now having a 16month old baby makes me more nervous; I was seriously considering headed up to Atlanta. But we plan on staying praying and hoping everything will be alright.

It looks as if the 2nd High Pressure forming over the Ohio Valley will be too late?? It doesn't look like it slides more west toward SW La. LA/TX border??

Edited August 31, 2008 by richyb83

[BRPJ]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but there is a new, very frightening model out. It predicts Gustav coming where its being predicted, but thats not the frightening part, even though thats certainly frightening. The model also has hannah skirting south of Florida, and taking gustavs path and hitting Lousiana as well, on the seventh, god I pray this doesn't happen.

[Lowerdeck]

At this point I wouldn't worry about Hanna too much.

[richyb83]

Trust me I'm not. All Eyes on the Gustav in the Gulf!!! I am encouraged that Gustav is down to 115mph between Cat#2/#3. Still a bad boy though. Still not liking the track as it's just too close for comfort + it's forward motion has stayed ramped-up at 17mph. It looks like it could be scraping the Atchafayala Basin??? Then hang out in Texas by Wednesday. This thing needs to move out of here ASAP.

[tombarnes]

All of you guys are in my thoughts and prayers tonight. Stay safe guys.

[buckett5425]

Why are we worried if people are lazy enough to rebuild their homes in a river basin, I say let the them have what they deserve.

[dimebag1980]

Idiot......

I hope you ask the same question when the next major earthquake hits California, a Volcano in Washington, or a wild fire in the southwest(People are always living in areas they shouldnt be, but live there because of economics, its where the jobs are, or it is a beautiful area). Comments like yours arnt needed on this forum.

[SlidellWX]

Sorry for not posting...worked a string of 12 hour days over the weekend. Overall...we dodged a bit bullet on this one and should be thankful. Shear and dry air intrusion are wonderful things when a hurricane is approaching. The strongest winds recorded were 117 mph at the mouth of the MS river. Grand Isle recorded 105 mph. Surge was around 10 to 14 feet across the area which is below the height of the hurricane protection system.

As for our other friends...

Hanna is headed to the Carolinas.

Ike should turn northwest and affect the East Coast next week.

Josephine looks like a fish spinner right now.

[richyb83]

WE GOT POWER back on a few hours ago!!!! 4 Nights w/o power is bad enough; I feel worse to many that will be out another week or two?? esp. to the south.

Thanks for the prayers Tom, they sure were/are needed

I figured you were plenty busy SlidellWX....you are such a tremendous asset to the La. forum! Esp. from a weather fanatic like myself!

Katrina dealt Louisiana a major-blow the right(LA/MS); Rita to the left(LA/TX); and Gustav went right between the eyes! The path inland went thru the Atchafaylaya Basin between Lafayette and Baton Rouge! I saw that only my little battery operated TV. Thank God Gustav did not maintain it's CAT#4 Status and was Strong CAT#2 instead.....I hate to imagine how bad this really could been!

BR Metro/Ryan Airport clocked peak wind gust at 91mph I had to say where I live in eastern BR at least 80mph??? We were in the core for 3 0r 4 hours; we never seen winds like that, INTENSE STUFF!!!! Hard to exactly say on the wind-speed; nothing to measure it with?? Some people tend to exaggerate with the 100mph winds in the past. In BR Andrew had winds around 70 in gust and Katrina was about 55-58mph??

Wonder what did the winds ended up being in Alexandria/Monroe/SBC??

Ike could split the Florida Peninsula in 1/2??? I sure hope it stays out of the Gulf!!! The Fla. Panhandle is a strong possibility?? At least Ike the "Buzzsaw" has encountered some strong wind-shear now down to 120mph from 145. I'll take any good news.

Edited September 5, 2008 by richyb83

[BRPJ]

IKE

[richyb83]

I am encouraged Ike's projected path has continued to the left (west) over the past few days; I realize any deviation to the right from the current Galveston TX track could slam it straight into Louisiana. But I feel better now than I did Saturday.

Ike's current track has been a little further south than most projections; so it did not stay over the landmass of Cuba( or the higher terrian) as long as it was supposed too; it's just now emerging back over the open water again. Was hoping Cuba would rip Ike apart???? Winds were still near 100mph!

Hoping Ike KEEPS MOVING WEST and stays as far south as possible away from the coast! The La. coastal towns look to get some impact later in the week regardless; with high water levels and tropical storm force winds??

Edited September 8, 2008 by richyb83

[BRPJ]

The jpg right there has changed baout three times since i posted it. Last time they had a bout 3 tracks that sent it to louisiana. now they are all pointed to texas. keep an eye out

[BRPJ]

wow, they moved the tracks further west again, just that fast. Its becoming less of a threat to texas even.

[SlidellWX]

Did some hand analysis at work. The ridge is holding in strong right now. It really looks like Ike will remain well south of Louisiana and most likely impact the central and south TX coast as most of the models are pointing at right now.

[richyb83]

LOOK at IKE's Massive Wind-profile!!! Tropical Storm force wind 275 miles from the center!!!!!

Ike spit out some INTENSE storms along a squall-line just before daybreak; Louie Armstrong Int'l some serious wind gust (68mph??)earlier!!! As this stuff raced NW it prompted Tornado Warnings for Ascension, Livingston. A blue-glow across the sky from a transformer took power out here in parts of BR East for a few hours ... Southern U. in BR recorded a 57mph wind gust before daybreak!

Thankfully that's been the worst of it. Glad to see we are not getting much rain; we certainly don't need it. Winds have been gusting here in the 30's & 40's

T.S. Gust for our area til 1:00am Sat

Edited September 12, 2008 by richyb83

[UptownNewOrleans]

I'm glad N.O. didn't get hit by anymore hurricanes because Louisiana and New Orleans in general DO NOT NEED any more tropical storms. You mention "Katrina" anywhere in N.O. or Louisiana and people are shook. Ike is putting a hurting on Houston (where some of my fam & friends reside). Some downtown bldgs. got glass blown off, puddles are forming, it's craziness. I wonder what areas of Houston got flooded the worst.