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First Horizon Park - Home of the Nashville Sounds


RemarkableHomes

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  • 3 weeks later...

One great thing about a baseball park near Shelby Street is that it can share parking with LP Field. Sort of like what they have done in Philadelphia with the sports complex. All the major stadiums (with the exception of the Union's PPL Park soccer stadium in the suburb of Chester), served by a single large mass transit stop, with plenty of parking all around. Plus, it turns it into something of a destination. With the stadiums in one place, things can start growing up around it, instead of spreading them out over two separate areas. Businesses can benefit from people attending events at both, and not have to decide which one to locate near.

Not to mention, the Sounds *really* need something other than Greer...

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I hope they make the decision soon. They have been discussing this for a decade now and just like West End Summit, and the Federal Courthouse nothing is getting done. Nashville seems to take too long to make a decision because to many people with opposing views seem to slow things down and get their way. The whole fiasco with Lionstone and Joy Ford is evident of that. She will go to her grave thinking she "got to stick it to the man..."

We elect our public officials with the faith they will make a good decision, yet we second guess every move they make for fear taxes will go up or it will be something we will regret. Just get the damn thing done!

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  • 10 months later...

I did not know the old Thermal Plant was out of the question now? I guess we will be seeing the amphitheater there in the future?  I personally would love to see it on the East Bank, esp if it provided for a relocation of the scrap metal yard. I hate having to see that eye sore. I also hate having to ride my bicycle by there when I ride into town. I had two flats in that section just this summer because of trash from that site.

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I did not know the old Thermal Plant was out of the question now? I guess we will be seeing the amphitheater there in the future?  I personally would love to see it on the East Bank, esp if it provided for a relocation of the scrap metal yard. I hate having to see that eye sore. I also hate having to ride my bicycle by there when I ride into town. I had two flats in that section just this summer because of trash from that site.

It is my guess, but I think the Thermal site fell out of favor after two pivotal events.  The hoopla surrounding the previous owners' mishandling of their plans for a park and mixed-use project at the site; and when the NSO announced they wanted an outdoor amphitheater, it became fate.  It has not been mentioned in any of the reports on a new ballpark that I have seen in the past year.

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I have a friend who's a much bigger baseball fan and over the years he has played devils advocate for building a new Sounds stadium because it would kill any chances of Nashville getting a MLB team in the future.  I'm not familiar with the baseball landscape enough to really weigh in on it other than currently it seem like Nashville might be too small of a market although geographically it seems like the city would be a good fit in the future.  What do you guys think?

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After attending a couple of concerts on the Thermal site, I sort of like the idea of keeping it as a event/green space with an amphitheater but with some improvements. I think a new Sounds Stadium would be a good fit on the East Bank and could go a long way to help revitalizing that side of the river.  

Edited by ariesjow
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Nashville would be a very small market for MLB.

 

Unlike the other 3 sports, MLB tends to not only gravitate to larger markets (er, well, more like they aren't expanding to smaller markets), but they are only found in markets where there is at least 1 other major pro sports franchise (no MLB only markets).

 

Here are the markets with MLB + only one other pro franchise:

Seattle (Mariners, Seahawks) 

Baltimore (Orioles, Ravens)

San Diego (Padres, Chargers)

Kansas City (Royals, Chiefs)

Cincinnati (Reds, Bengals)

Milwaukee (Brewers, Bucks)

 

Aside from Seattle, which is down a franchise (NBA), the other markets are similar in size to Nashville (in terms of TV market).

 

TV market - rank - tv homes

Seattle - 12th - 1,811,420

Baltimore - 27th - 1,097,310

San Diego - 28th - 1,077,600

Nashville - 29th - 1,024,560

Kansas City - 31st - 939,740

Milwaukee - 34th - 907,660

Cincinnati - 35th - 896,090

 

Now, of course there are more things that go into deciding where pro sports teams go, or if they can thrive than just TV market...but initially, it's a pretty good indicator. Almost every one of these cities (with the exception of similar-sized Milwaukee) is considered larger and perhaps in a higher "tier" than Nashville -- but for the sake of argument, this is the one area where Nashville comes closest to stacking up.

 

But Nashville already has 2 pro teams. I think most would agree that adding a 3rd team, especially one with the demands of baseball, would be quite difficult. 

For example, 70,000 NFL tickets + 8 regular season games = 560,000 tickets

16,000 NHL tickets (more or less the Preds average) + 41 regular season games = 656,000 tickets

25,000 MLB tickets (which would put us in the bottom quarter of attendance) + 81 regular season games = 2,025,000 tickets

 

Cost aside, just the thought of going from 1.2 million fans in attendance to 3.2 million is mindblowing. While it would be absolutely wonderful for downtown (assuming a new ballpark is built nearby), it would certainly be a strain in terms of both personal and corporate dollars in terms of supporting the teams. Most data suggests that we simply do not have enough to go around.

 

Assuming that we do not lose our beloved Predators to NHL player/owner shenanigans, we would be looking to add MLB as a 3rd pro team. Here's a look at the current markets with 3 pro teams (including MLB):

 

 

Atlanta (Braves, Falcons, Hawks)

Houston (Astros, Texans, Rockets)

Tampa Bay (Rays, Buccaneers, Lightning)

Cleveland (Indians, Browns, Cavaliers)

St. Louis (Cardinals, Rams, Blues)

Pittsburgh (Pirates, Steelers, Penguins)

 

Atlanta - 9th - 2,292,640

Houston - 10th - 2,185,260

Tampa Bay - 14th - 1,788,240

Cleveland - 18th - 1,514,170

St. Louis - 21st - 1,253,920

Pittsburgh - 23rd - 1,171,490

Nashville - 29th - 1,024,560

 

Pittsburgh is the closest TV market in terms of size -- but most of the rest are considerably larger. Actually, you can divide these into newer fast-growing sun belt cities (the top 3) and the older rust belt cities (with very established and loyal followings) that are somewhat closer to us in terms of size.

 

 

First of all, I don't see any MLB teams moving at present (except maybe the Florida teams -- lol). Second of all, I doubt baseball is looking to expand. Yes, there have been rumors -- and adding 2 teams would bring the unbalanced NL and AL back to even. But expansion has been shot down before. I haven't heard of it gaining steam lately. And if it does, I seriously doubt Nashville is on the short list. There are a number of markets that would be more attractive than us right now, especially those under-served by pro sports right now. Assuming our two pro teams stay for the long run, the earliest I think Nashville could possibly court an MLB team (assuming a steady growth rate) would be 2025. But at that point, many of our peer cities will have grown, too, and will be fighting for new teams as well (Charlotte certainly comes to mind).

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We aren't getting a MLB team. Talking about it kind of seems silly. I mean the cities around Nashville's size really struggle to keep their teams remotely competitive for the most part.

A lot of that depends on the sport, the city, the owners, and how well established the team is.

 

And I would argue that it's not a struggle to remain competitive -- rather teams and their front offices have to be efficient and savvy with their moves. They can't afford to be lazy like the big market teams and waste money.

 

I think of it in terms of the difference between how a lot of corporations operate, and how a lot of small businesses operate. 

 

 

That said, you are right. We're not on MLB's radar.

 

We were when Bredesen was mayor and we didn't have the Preds or Titans. If we had landed a team then (probably would've been the damn Expos, anyways), we would almost certainly not have another franchise now.

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I thought I heard they were considering the industrial area on the east bank north of the Jefferson street bridge?

 

I don't think a baseball park is the most interesting thing that could go either on the east bank by the KVB bridge, or in Sulphur Dell or the former thermal area, or the N. Gulch.

 

Thermal area needs some improvements and a more dramatic look--it's kind of vacant--but seems to be finding an identity as a performance/festival space. 

 

I'd like to see some interesting mixed use with residential on the east bank (and I believe the flood issue is easily dealt with by having the lower levels dedicated to parking).  The whole LP Field area needs to rethink the acres-of-surface-parking motif and get some mixed use action going on.

 

I think the best thing that could happen in Sulphur Dell is lots and lots of Vista Germantownesque buildings to create a genuine midrise urban neighborhood around the bicentennial mall, which is crying out for that kind of Central Park treatment, landscaped green space overlooked by apartments. 

 

And the North Gulch area is slated for mixed use development for which I have great hopes.

 

I wouldn't mind a stadium on the East Bank or North Gulch if it had structured parking and was clad in apartments, with retail/restaurant space on the ground floor, the stadium as an anchor for a mixed use development, but I'm doubtful that much imagination will be available.

 

I don't think the mayor's office cares much and I doubt the team owners are much interested in urban development, chances are this discussion will go on so long that when Greer Field is collapsing no suitable large parcels will be available and they'll just have to improve the existing site.

 

 

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I think baseball adds the most to the vitality to a city of any of the big four sports.  I love the comparatively small size of the ballparks (compared to a football stadium anyway) and the numerous games cause the surrounding neighborhoods to be active for half the days over a period of months, and not just for 8 or 10 big events.  Places like Wrigley, Camden, etc are just fantastic.

 

That being said, the demands of a baseball team are crazy.  There are just so many home games (81) the city has to have a ton of people and corporate dollars (suites and season tickets) to properly support it.  Mid size cities like Nashville can do very well with NFL, NHL, or NBA, but I think MLB is just another beast entirely.  I think it would be a while before Nashville could really support a team, and I would expect a handful of other cities to get a shot first (Charlotte, maybe Portland or Indy). 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I don't mean to rekindle the "Nashville's not getting an MLB team" discussion, but I found something interesting by random chance online.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2011/08/denver-is-most-overextended-market.html

 

 

It's a study that analyzes a metro's ability to support professional sports teams economically based on the total combined income of the residents. Of course, I think there are some flaws in this, but it's an interesting study nonetheless.

 

In a nutshell:

 

 

We used team revenue data and average ticket prices to calculate the amount of TPI needed to adequately support a team in each league. Minimum income bases were estimated to be $85.4 billion for MLB, $37.6 billion for the NHL, $36.7 billion for the NFL, $34.2 billion for the NBA, and $15.4 billion for MLS.

Nashville's total personal income (TPI) was $63.8 billion in 2010. According to the study, we really need to have a TPI of $74.3 billion to adequately support our current teams (a deficit of $10.5 billion). So we're overextended as it is.

 

Nashville is not alone in being overextended, and not even close to being the worst. In fact, there are currently 20 markets listed as such, with Nashville ranking as the 16th most overextended.

 

The others are as follows:

 

1 - Denver (5 teams) - $87.3 billion deficit

2 - Cleveland (3 teams) - $71.4 billion

3 - Pittsburgh (3 teams) - $56.7 billion

4 - Tampa (3 teams) - $54.1 billion

5 - Kansas City (3 teams) - $52.3 billion

6 - Milwaukee (2 teams) - $51.8 billion

7 - St. Louis (3 teams) - $42.3 billion

8 - Phoenix (4 teams) - $41.1 billion

9 - Minneapolis-St. Paul (4 teams) - $39.4 billion

10 - Cincinnati (2 teams) - $37.5 billion

11 - Buffalo (2 teams) - $30.9 billion

12 - Green Bay (1 team) - $25.2 billion

13 - Detroit (4 teams) - $23.3 billion

14 - New Orleans (2 teams) - $18.4 billion

15 - San Francisco-Oakland (5 teams) - $12.5 billion

16 - Nashville (2 teams) - $10.5 billion

17 - Winnipeg (1 team) - $8.8 billion

18 - Salt Lake City (2 teams) - $5.9 billion

19 - Charlotte (2 teams) - $1.7 billion

20 - Indianapolis (2 teams) - $1.7 billion

 

According to this, Nashville would need to have a TPI of $159.7 billion, which is close to that of Minneapolis-St. Paul. So, in other words, we need to double in size before we're ready to add MLB. Double. That's a long, long way off. 

 

 

My major problem with the methodology is that it doesn't factor in corporate presence and ownership (millionaires and billionaires that may or may not live in the city).

 

 

 

(For curious reference, elsewhere in Tennessee, Memphis has a TPI of $50.6 billion, Knoxville $24.6 billion, and Chattanooga $18.5 billion -- Memphis would be capable of supporting a second pro team -- MLS only -- and Knoxville and Chattanooga could each support an MLS team themselves. Nashville is approximately $26 billion short of being able to support it's 3rd pro team -- MLS again -- because of the deficit)

 

 

 

 

 

How this relates to the Sounds, though. AAA baseball wasn't a consideration when figuring in a market's ability to support pro teams. And though it is small, it still requires some income to support it. With Nashville currently having a deficit in this category, it makes me wonder how high of a priority investing any public funds should be in building a new ballpark. Honestly, I really don't want to lose the Sounds...but perhaps we should put civic investment on hold until we are under better financial footing. It shouldn't be long before we're large enough to support our two current teams along with AAA baseball.

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