Up & Coming Cities the under a Million Club!

[urbanguy]

I selected some Metro's/CSA's that are currently under a million and placed them here for discussion. I'd like to know what you think the future has in store for these metro's under the million mark and over 500,000.... Do you think they have bright futures? Large population increases or declines? Improvements? Developments? etc etc?

Some Select US Metros/CSA's 2003 estimates - I left out Fresno because its probably over a million by now.

Tulsa CSA: 928,967

Honolulu MSA: 902,704

Tucson MSA: 892,798

Omaha CSA: 829,133

Greenville CSA: 818,518

Knoxville CSA: 804,915

Little Rock CSA: 804,275

Allentown MSA: 768,036

Albuquerque MSA: 764,869

Baton Rouge CSA: 745,915

Syracuse CSA: 735,920

Toldeo CSA: 722,627

Columbia CSA: 708,247

Chattanooga CSA: 642,994

Lexington CSA: 623,134

Des Moines CSA: 540,469

Boise MSA: 510,876

Wichita CSA: 618,641

Colorado Springs MSA: 572,264

====Bonus Metros====

Spokane MSA: 431,027

Anchorage MSA: 339,286

A few Canadian CMA's - I left out Edmonton because its probably over a million by now.

Quebec CMA: 705,900

Hamilton CMA: 702,900

Winnipeg CMA: 698,200

====Bonus CMA's====

London CMA: 457,200

Halifax CMA: 377,900

What do you think?

Some current unemployment statistics for US Cities mentioned as of APR 2004:

Tulsa CSA: 4.8%

Honolulu MSA: 3.2%

Tucson MSA: 3.9%

Omaha CSA: 4.0%

Greenville CSA: 5.8%

Knoxville CSA: 3.1%

Little Rock CSA: 4.5%

Allentown MSA: 5.1%

Albuquerque MSA: 4.4%

Baton Rouge CSA: 5.3%

Syracuse CSA: 6.0%

Toldeo CSA: 6.9%

Columbia CSA: 4.1%

Chattanooga CSA: 3.3%

Lexington CSA: 3.6%

Des Moines CSA: 3.3%

Boise MSA: 4.1%

Wichita CSA: 5.7%

Colorado Springs MSA: 5.4%

====Bonus Metros====

Spokane MSA: 5.4%

Anchorage MSA: 5.1%

City figures will be released soon for US cities so stay tuned for updates!

Not to worry the just above a million club Metros/CSA's/CMA's will be up for discussion in the near future so stay tuned for a similar thread featuring cities like: Salt Lake City, Oklahoma City, Calgary, Edmonton, Fresno, Albany, New Orleans, etc

[H-townrep]

I think Colombia will be ok since it is the City Capital and has been growing. I'm surprise not to see Charlston on this list. Also Baton Rogue will be ok since it is close to the metro of New Orleans and there is a lot to do there as far as blues and music. It will never be a major metro cause it really can't grow past the Mississippi or the Great Lake.

[Cotuit]

Colorado Springs will probably be the big mover on that list (it would be interesting to see recent growth numbers for each city, Colorado Springs must right up there).

I can see Chattanooga growing as Atlanta becomes expensive and people look for an alternative.

I think St. Louis and KC will continue to steal Little Rock's thunder, though if one of them slips, Little Rock could fill the void.

Tucson is probably a sure bet to see continued growth.

I think Honolulu will be slow and steady. The island economy of having to ship in everything will keep prices high and make it less attractive than mainland counterparts. Also the distance is a hinderance. If we see a dramatic improvement in air flight times (say 4 hours to the east coast) Honolulu would explode. But it doesn't look like we have anything like that on the horizon. If Hawaii maintains and keeps building it's place in the Pacific economy it should be a safe bet to continue to see it grow. Probably one of the few cities in the US that is so driven by international economics.

The only ones I'd be concerned about are Toledo, Syracuse, Allentown, maybe Boise and Baton Rouge. I think especially the 3 rust belt cities will have to work hard to assure growth. The sunbelt cities still have time for a while to just kick back and let things happen. Though it won't be too long before some boom cities start having growing pains.

I love small cities, and I think their future will be especially interesting over the next decade. The trend towards New Urbanism and rediscovering the cities is real, but a lot of people who want an urban life, don't necessarily want to live in one of the top 10 cities. Small and mid sized cities can offer manageable urbanity.

[urbanguy]

^Thanks for the participation you guys have made some interesting points!

BTW Cotuit here are some stats about the growth of each city from 2002-2003

Tulsa CSA: 1,869

Honolulu MSA: 10,308

Tucson MSA: 11,577

Omaha CSA: 8,681

Greenville CSA: 5,083

Knoxville CSA: 8,155

Little Rock CSA: 5,912

Allentown MSA: 9,954

Albuquerque MSA: 10,881

Baton Rouge CSA: 5,881

Syracuse CSA: 861

Toldeo CSA: 1,414

Columbia CSA: 7,121

Chattanooga CSA: 4,457

Lexington CSA: 7,495

Des Moines CSA: 5,841

Boise MSA: 12,782

Wichita CSA: 835

Colorado Springs MSA: 6,860

====Bonus Metros====

Spokane MSA: 3,521

Anchorage MSA: 5,162

***Also keep in mind some numbers might be skewed with the introduction of the CSA and some metros that seemed to have expanded borders***

About 44-45% of Honolulu's annual growth is due to international migration, its becoming more and more foreign each year. Also the state now has the lowest unemployment rate in the country at 3% Honolulu's unemployment rate i think is just under that. Honolulu is starting to go thru a boom right now both in the city and burbs, the economy is also diversifying more and more as it poises itself to become more involved and the bridge of east & west in the Pacific Region for education, trade, health/medical, technology, defense, etc. The funny thing is the state used to be independent and didnt really need to ship in things as it was large in manufacturing but as the economy shifted from agriculture to tourism/defense things to a dramatic change. Finally, things are starting to change and one example towards independence once again is the new solar bond that was passed by the city that will help the city focus on renewable energy. The $7.85 million solar bond for clean energy and efficiency projects for city buildings will finance energy upgrades and the promotion of solar energy. Honolulu is among the first cities in the nation to dedicate bonds for clean-energy projects. The bond will fund lighting or air-conditioning improvements in municipal buildings islandwide as well as photovoltaic installations in city buildings in Kapolei. Currently, power at Honolulu Hale is generated on-site from natural gas and waste heat. Browning says 92 percent of Hawaii's electricity is generated from fossil fuels that are shipped in from out of the state. He says the solar bond will move Hawaii toward energy independence, slow down increases in future energy costs and serve as an example to the rest of the country.

[urbanguy]

^Oh yeah and in 2006 there will be interisland ferries serving the entire state which will basically be like a ocean highway as people will be able to take their vehicles from island to island, i think that will eventually change how people do business here as well as where they live and work. It should be really interesting....

Also the Bio-Tech industry is growing the new medical center/park should complete construction soon then wet lab space and later the opening of a Japan based Cancer Research Center.

Also thanks to ACT 221 Hawaii's High Technology Businsess Investment Tax Credit - It's changing the technology landscape. The High Technology Business Investment Credit is an astounding 100% Hawaiian income tax credit for investors in Hawaiian QHTB

[Cotuit]

I've seen where Hawaii is taking the lead in Thermal Inversion Ocean energy generation.

Hawaii is in a unique position as an island chain to really push hard for alternative energy technologies. The islanders will really feel the savings as prices are driven up by transporting to the islands already. The market for alternative fuels for cars for instance is captive as well. It's not as if they can drive somewhere for cheap gas. If you're going to import cars, might as well import alternative fuel vehicles, and set up the infrastucture to make them economical (i.e. filling stations...).

[urbanguy]

^Did you know Honolulu manufactures electric vehicles and so does the big island and is also an experimental city for the Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), and Enova Systems as one example? It also have been experimenting with alternative fuels like bio-diesel etc. "Clean fuels" - such as propane, biodiesel, electricity, and alcohol fuels - have been used in Hawaii for years. Honolulu also was the first "electric-vehicle-ready" city in the country with its installments of electric filling stations back in 1998. There are also electric trolleys, fuel cell bus (first in the country), etc

The state also has geothermal energy and other types of stuff like that too. The sciences are really big out here. An interesting fact we dont get our fuel from the same places as the US Mainland we get it from places like Indonesia & Alaska.

FYI and another cool industry is the state is also doing things like Ocean farming where they have these massive underwater cages raising fish, we also produce a lot of different types of seafoods for domestic and international markets like shrimps, abologne, lobster, crabs, etc

[urbanguy]

Oh man i just read that Honolulu's jobless rate dropped to 2.6% in May, yikes

[KCghettoboi]

I think Honolulu has the brightest furture! I also like Des Moines. But Honolulu by far!

[urbanguy]

^Cant forget Omaha & Anchorage too and maybe Little Rock eventually!

[KCghettoboi]

^ Yeah but Honolulu has the brightest future because a city is all about " location locatin location". I think in 30 years Honolulu could be america's own Tokyo( but a smaller version)

[Lysander]

This is wrong:

"Syracuse CSA: 861"

urbanguy, I don't know where you got those numbers. I did the numbers myself and got 2,432 growth from 2002 to 2003 in Syracuse's CSA.

the source: http://eire.census.gov/popest/data/cities/...T2003-05-36.xls

Who has the water? Syracuse has Lake Ontario for it's water supply. Can't beat that if the country has water shortages in the future.

[Wendell FOX]

I think it'll either be Honolulu or Tucson that will make its way up to the 1M mark first - I'd actually bet on Tucson first because of it being located in the sprawlbelt and status as "Phoenix Jr." Tucson, Honolulu, and Tulsa are already psychologically thought of as "regional cities" in many respects.

[urbanguy]

Lysander? how did you get Syracuses CSA numbers from all that mess? BTW we created a thread about metro pops a while back the numbers are in there i think teshadoh created a full list.

Wendell FOX, Tucson will definately reach a million first Honolulu probably wont reach it til around 2010 or so but with the huge influx of people the city has been getting in recent years it could be even sooner but we really wont know until the "100%" *cough* *cough*count is done in 2010.

[Lysander]

Easy. I just looked at the four counties that make up the Syracuse CSA. Subtracted the 2002 numbers from the 2003 numbers. Added them together and got 2,432.

Here is the break down:

Onondaga County went from 459,477 in 2002 to 460,517 in 2003 (+1,040)

Oswego County went from 122,721 in 2002 to 123,495 in 2003 (+774)

Cayuga County went from 81,508 in 2002 to 81,726 in 2003 (+218)

Madison County went from 69,782 in 2002 to 70,182 in 2003 (+400)

Added together = +2,432

[urbanguy]

Okay i know what i think couldve happen with teshadoh's list the 2002 estimates were probably overestimated and readjusted for 2003 as was the case with Honolulu's numbers in 2002 the census reported that it was 896,000+ and in 2003's census it said that in 2002 it was like 892,000+ thats a 4,000+ readjustment not good so i believe that might have been what happened to his estimates the figures i did were only for a metros down to about 800,000 or so and a few select metros under that.

[PghUSA]

WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE!

lol

[urbanguy]

^puff puff give