Hurricane Gustav

[monsoon]

Looks like it is now the same power as Katrina (or close to it) and is headed straight to New Orleans.

[vdogg]

Looks like it is now the same power as Katrina (or close to it) and is headed straight to New Orleans.

[tamias6]

If Gustav takes out New Orleans just as viciously Katrina did, I think it would be safer and cheaper to plow the ruins under, leave the area to nature, and then upgrade Baton Rouge to take up New Orlean's functions.

[satalac]

this is horrible. another direct hit will decimate this great american city.

[Lowerdeck]

Luckily for New Orleans this is not looking like a direct hit ... current estimates say it'll pass by at least 100 miles to the west. If it got closer to New Orleans there would be bigger problems. It would experience a lot of wind damage, but perhaps not so much all the flooding. The winds would be coming from the south if the storm passes west, so there is a threat of good storm surge and water rushing up the Miss. River, but maybe not. If this goes 100-150 miles west of NOLA, this might be the equivalent of a tropical storm there vs. a major hurricane.

What happened in Katrina was... the center of the storm passed just east of NOLA. The winds came around from the north, pushing all the water from Lake Pontchartrain into the city, which sits below sea level.

I will also add that Katrina was stronger, both at it's peak and at landfall, than Gustav is.

[kayman]

Luckily for New Orleans this is not looking like a direct hit ... current estimates say it'll pass by at least 100 miles to the west. If it got closer to New Orleans there would be bigger problems. It would experience a lot of wind damage, but perhaps not so much all the flooding. The winds would be coming from the south if the storm passes west, so there is a threat of good storm surge and water rushing up the Miss. River, but maybe not. If this goes 100-150 miles west of NOLA, this might be the equivalent of a tropical storm there vs. a major hurricane.

What happened in Katrina was... the center of the storm passed just east of NOLA. The winds came around from the north, pushing all the water from Lake Pontchartrain into the city, which sits below sea level.

I will also add that Katrina was stronger, both at it's peak and at landfall, than Gustav is.

[TONYCLT]

The problem is if Gustav passes the the west that will put New Orleans on the North East side of the storm which is the most powerful and destructive. Instead of the surge coming from Lake Pontchartrain it will come from the gulf. Also Gustav is making landfall in Cuba right now when it emerges in the gulf and hit what the weather men call the "sweet spot" the storm will be just as strong if not stronger then Katrina.

[cpeakesqr]

That's not entirely true, Lowerdeck. As Gustav could intensify even further since it is yet to make landfall which is days away. Also arguably Katrina was a weak Category 4 or strong Category 3 depending on who you ask. So we can't make this call until the storm makes landfall.

[Lowerdeck]

That's not entirely true, Lowerdeck. As Gustav could intensify even further since it is yet to make landfall which is days away. Also arguably Katrina was a weak Category 4 or strong Category 3 depending on who you ask. So we can't make this call until the storm makes landfall.

[TONYCLT]

Like you said Gustav has a pressure of 941, I think the pressure will continue to drop through out the night and into tomorrow I think it will bottom out at 905 to 910.

[Gusterfell]

If Gustav takes out New Orleans just as viciously Katrina did, I think it would be safer and cheaper to plow the ruins under, leave the area to nature, and then upgrade Baton Rouge to take up New Orlean's functions.

[Lowerdeck]

With the way the Louisiana coastline has been eroding, New Orleans might be an island within 50-100 years ... if anything. Baton Rouge will probably be on the coastline.

The whatever barrier between the Gulf and the solid land is disappearing quickly due to the powerful storms and by human interference.

[TONYCLT]

If Gustav destroys New Orleans like Katrina did the city should be left abandoned because the cost of rebuilding will be to high. Katrina did 80+ billion dollars in damage, if Gustav hits and does half of that your looking at 120+ billion in 3 years to keep up a decaying city.

[kayman]

If New Orleans does take a major hit this time I even believe maybe it is time to seriously rethink the whole setup of the way Southeast Louisiana population centers are.

[Gard]

At least they evacuating this time. They were showing tons of people crowding Amtrack trains to get out on tv earlier. I applaud the Army Corps of Engineers for digging in and planning to stay through the storm to monitor pumps and keeps things running as best as they can. I really think that the answer to keeping New Orleans safe is a dike system like that in the Netherlands combined with pulling development back away from the gulf some to recreate some of the marshlands that would provide a buffer to the storm surges. The area will never be completely abandoned, as it is at the mouth of the Mississippi and as a result, where the government control whos and what enters and leaves the Mississippi. Once again, I think that smart planning will help mitigate the problem.

[Lowerdeck]

Even so. But that does put me at ease with Gustav. Katrina was a CAT 3 storm when it hit New Orleans.

[Gard]

The pressure and all is lower than Katrina, but the storm surge is double that of Katrina and THATS what you need to be worried about. Also, the worst part of this storm is in its Northeast quadrant and Gustav is coming in west of New Orleans, meaning they will get the worst hit.

[monsoon]

tamas6, gard, lowerdeck, please stop with the battle of the links.

[TONYCLT]

Looks like New Orleans will be spared the worst of this storm. As of 0445 it appears the center of Gustav will pass about 50 miles to the southwest of N.O.

[Justadude]

If Gustav takes out New Orleans just as viciously Katrina did, I think it would be safer and cheaper to plow the ruins under, leave the area to nature, and then upgrade Baton Rouge to take up New Orlean's functions.

[Gard]

Well it looks good for New Orleans now. Aside from water in the industrial canal splashing over into the upper 9th ward, the levys held strong and I really want to give props to the Army Corps of Engineers. I saw the footage of what they did on TV with intercepting and securing that large barge that broke loose and was threatening to bust a levy wide open and the engineer that jumped into the rushing waters to intercept and secure a large propane tank that had broken loose and was threatening to smash into a levy, which would have been a disaster if it has ruptured and blown up. Last I knew there were a couple ships loose that could bust some levys, but apparently they got those to. Good Job guys, you are the real heroes that saved New Orleans from a second flooding

[tamias6]

Does any body know how the oil platforms faired?

[Gard]

They are saying on tv that the oil platforms came out relitavely unscathed, as well as the oil refineries. On that note, oil dropped to $111/barrel today. They attribute the minimal damage to them to Gustav's speed through the area. On another note, Hannah has been upgraded to a hurricane, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

[Lowerdeck]

Hanna looks to be heading towards Georgia and the Carolinas by about Thurs or Fri.

The one which could be of bigger concern (not for at least a week though) is Ike however.

[Gard]

Yeah I was looking at the weather tonight and they were saying that there is also a third one forming right behind Ike. Ike is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane within the next 24 hours and it isn't even close to being in the Caribbean! That is going to be one nasty hurricane by the time it gets here. Hannah, on the other hand, is showing on the projected path right now to skirt the FL coast and come ashore at Wilmington.