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Best case/Worst case

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During the last big recession Hartford and CT suffered greatly. Mergers happened manufacturing jobs left by the 10 thousands.

what do you see as the best case situations and worst case situations to come out of the credit crisis financial melt down going on?

Best Case:

No major Hartford companies are bought out or fold.

-so far none look like they will fold, but you never know about mergers.

Webster is not in the best shape and could easily get bought. I hope they are able to stay alive.

At least 1 hartford company makes a move and buys another company bringing jobs to the area.

I know Peoples bank will be buying another decent sized bank, it is just a question of how much this would benefit Hartford if at all.

UTC is likely to buy several more companies, but this likely will not greatly help Hartford, and it is not really associated with the credit crisis. we can just hope UTC does not cut many jobs.

anyone have any realistic predictions?

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AIG, the nation's largest insurer is in serious and imminent danger after having their credit rating downgraded resulting in an inability to raise cash. Its possible that AIG will start selling off large pieces of their business to raise necessary cash and Hartford companies may be buyers. AIG needs about $75 billion to stay afloat.

AIG stock has lost over 90% of its value this year and is now trading at just about $3.

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AIG, the nation's largest insurer is in serious and imminent danger after having their credit rating downgraded resulting in an inability to raise cash. Its possible that AIG will start selling off large pieces of their business to raise necessary cash and Hartford companies may be buyers. AIG needs about $75 billion to stay afloat.

AIG stock has lost over 90% of its value this year and is now trading at just about $3.

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AIG just got the federal bail out.

So every american just loaned AIG $283.3. I hope you enjoyed that.

But we do as a collective own 79% of a previously broke company.

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AIG just got the federal bail out.

So every american just loaned AIG $283.3. I hope you enjoyed that.

But we do as a collective own 79% of a previously broke company.

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you won't be seeing much in development in hartford. no liquidity in market and nobody wants to lend to poor people right now. People in homes will not sell them in a down market to move to hartford either.

AIG just got the federal bail out.

So every american just loaned AIG $283.3. I hope you enjoyed that.

But we do as a collective own 79% of a previously broke company.

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ok, Lads and Lass'

a little time has passed and a lot of changes have happened, so we can get a better view of wheree things will be going.

From an article in the HBJ about the states banks, I learned that Webster bank is in better shape than I thought. this is a very good thing, because there is at least a decent chance thay will stick around and stay HQ in CT. I do not see much growth on their part, but they may be able to pick up a few small banks from the FDIC as they begin to fail.

Peoples is still in spectacular shape, and should remain so. there supposedly will be some purchase at some point, so we will see how much these guys will be growing and how many jobs this company will bring to the state.

Merril Lynch was bought by BOA. thats about 800 jobs now put at risk as these companies integrate. I am confident that we will LOSE jobs here. I would however hold on to the glimmer that the gov and mayor could team up and find a way to bring some more investment jobs here since 800 jobs in hartford is a pretty large operations center, and something worth building off of.

but BOA has its investment arm HQ in NY, and it also bought the new ML building, so they should not be too short on space, and therefore not likely to push jobs out to places like Hartford. I say we loose at least 300 jobs

AIG bailout will lead to AID selling some assets to raise capitol. I am hoping that some hartford companies buy some of the assets, and I also hope that hartford steamboiler, if sold, is bought by someone that is interested in keeping the company here.

PNX scares me. they have traded as low as 8.00 a share!!!! I hope these guys are able to pull off some growth after the spin off of the investment arm, and I hope neither are bought up.

I actually would love to see Hartford steam boiler and Phoenix some how hook up as a larger company with 2 specialties. this would likely give PNX better leadership, and the combined company would have a more stable footprint from wich to grow business. mind you life, and mechanicals are 2 very different areas, so I do not know if it would work, but you see my concern about PNX :)

Connecticut bank and trust will fail. It might be a hunch but it is based off the HBJ article about CT banks as well. They are in bad shape as far as loan losses, they are a recent start up, they likely made bad loans in an attempt to grow their loan portfolio since they were looking to create a market share. this is a shame because a hartford HQ bank is one of the best ways to help this city in terms of jobs and such. its funny though, because the stock is not moving at all, but then again it is a small cap and closely held. so maybe they can raise some cash.

Wamu being bought by Chase should not have any real effect on CT. and neither should Wachovias banking unit being bought by City.

as best I can tell, and I have a pretty good bead on it, Aetna, Travelers, and The Hartford are all quite sound, and not at all like AIG. I know nothing of met life, but I am absolutely confident in ING (too bad they outsourced me :) ) so I can confrim 50 job losses in downtown, but that was confirmed like 8 months ago. those jobs will leave around june 2009

anyone know anythine else?

I am sure I left some stuff off.

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Merril Lynch was bought by BOA. thats about 800 jobs now put at risk as these companies integrate. I am confident that we will LOSE jobs here. I would however hold on to the glimmer that the gov and mayor could team up and find a way to bring some more investment jobs here since 800 jobs in hartford is a pretty large operations center, and something worth building off of.

but BOA has its investment arm HQ in NY, and it also bought the new ML building, so they should not be too short on space, and therefore not likely to push jobs out to places like Hartford. I say we loose at least 300 jobs

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I am not understanding this. BOA has 800 jobs in Hartford that is at risk or ML has 800 jobs in Hartford that is at risk?

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The article on Front street has me thinking.

How is Hartford positioned for the next 2 years, then beyond. With the above corporate stuff, there should not be anything too bad on the horizon. so life in the city should remain reletively unchanged.

the next 2 years will be a time of tight credit and little development. there will be development, but it will generally be from large sources like Northland Antares, and other such companies that have allready done financing rounds on wall st and do not need traditional lenders(banks) to get projects done.

right now we have a science center that is nearing its structural completion, but still has several months of work to go.

We have a hotel under construction in East Hartford that is pouring concrete daily. (some areas look to be on the 2nd floor)

we have several magnet schools under construction or planned and funded.

we have a renovation in progress at 470 Asylum. in theory The Pearl will begin renovations fairly soon as well.

we have front street starting to get starded evn in its weakened state

Aetna is building finishing off its 270M worth of work by building a 2nd garage

lastly the big question is Broadcast house. we dont know exactly their plan is, but we do know they got something coming down the pipeline.

if these above projects are the only ones that happen over the next 2 years it is still far more than Hartford had 10 years ago.

and I say its actually a decent about of work. how are simular sized cities faring?

I feel like all things concidered Hartford is going to continue to show progress during these incredibly tough times. Some cities that rely on single family home construction and sales will be in big trouble. some cities have lost huge companies. others have merged and many more will fail. where will the jobs end up? where will the money flow to?

Buffett just invested 3B into GE yesterday with an option for another 3B in warrants.

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I am not understanding this. BOA has 800 jobs in Hartford that is at risk or ML has 800 jobs in Hartford that is at risk?

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This could be a positive thing for Hartford. If banks start tightening their lending standards, that means young people looking to buy will remain in Apartments longer. this could boost further the downtown rental market (if anything ever gets done about it).

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JOJO, let me correct myself here. I gave the wrong numbers

5100 BOA employees between the two companies. 4500 at BOA, 600 at Merrill.

I would still see a potential loss of 2-300 jobs,

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This could be a positive thing for Hartford. If banks start tightening their lending standards, that means young people looking to buy will remain in Apartments longer. this could boost further the downtown rental market (if anything ever gets done about it).

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There is certain truth to that. Rental market is very strong....from my vantage point, I am not seeing any slow down. I know Hartford Insurance is in some trouble, but Travelers is doing pretty well.

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Hartford Steam Boiler has been for sale for a little bit, and has been expected to sell quickly.

well I just heard the rumor... it HAS sold. obviously nothing is public, and I have no idea who might have bought it in this rumor. I just checked all the news feeds and see nothing but mentions that it is apparently on the block, and is expected to sell quickly.

I wonder when we will find out and I wonder when we find out if this is good news or bad news for the Hartford econemy.

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OK,

So we have some good news about The Hartford. Allianz made an investment into The Hartford, and its share price has stabalized. 3.5Billion I think was the ammount. so The Hartford is totally safe to stay a strong healthy Hartford based company.

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Honestly at my job our traders are being so conservative that they rather keep funds uninvested rather than risk any loss. the entire market is about preserving what you have, not growing assets. loans are a way to grow assets, so it will be interesting how this bail out gets things flowing again. or IF it does.

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Hartford Steam Boiler for sale article

http://www.courant.com/business/hc-hsb1009...0,6193653.story

Right now this successful company has

383 workers in Hartford

398 employees in CT (so thats likely 15 inspectors around the state+ the hartford corporate staff)

2486 total employees nation wide. (I am sure some of these are in AIG offices possibly accounting and operations jobs, and a large number of inspectors etc..

in 2000 it was bought for 1.2B in stock.

Best case. this company is bought by Berkshire Hathaway(a strong possibility) all jubs stay put, and in all liklihood many jobs from the AIG campuses would have to me moved here.

or local investors buy HSB and set it up as an independedt company again. also bringing jobs to the area.

Worst case. Honestly if someone like Aetna or Travelers bought it there would likely be job loss due to overlaps.

or some other insurance company could potentially mopve the whole company out of hartford.

so this is right now the biggest threat to hartford as best i can tell.

EDIT

ok, so apparently XL is in some kind of trouble now. we will see just how bad, but people are worried they made bad investments because they have a history of doing so in good times. let alone bad times.

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Well, looks like it's certainly worst case for future housing development:

http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-housi...,0,980865.story

2000 residents is more than I expected and a good sign. But if 5000 is needed to reach NYC (remember it's overall - don't think Manhattan) level density in our downtown, it'll take at least double that to achieve a true city feeling.

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Well, looks like it's certainly worst case for future housing development:

http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-housi...,0,980865.story

2000 residents is more than I expected and a good sign. But if 5000 is needed to reach NYC (remember it's overall - don't think Manhattan) level density in our downtown, it'll take at least double that to achieve a true city feeling.

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