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urbanguy

Up & Coming Cities the OVER 1 MIL Club Part II!

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I selected some Metro's/CSA's that are currently over a million and placed them here for discussion. I'd like to know what you think the future has in store for these metro's over the million mark and under 1,600,000.... Do you think they have bright futures? Large population increases or declines? Improvements? Developments? etc etc? Transportation? Job Markets? etc

Some Select US Metros/CSA's 2003 estimates:

Salt Lake City CSA: 1,518,678

Nashville CSA: 1,444,500

Raleigh-Durham CSA: 1,430,962

Austin MSA: 1,377,633

New Orleans CSA: 1,361,488

Greensboro-Winston-Salem CSA: 1,323,536

Jacksonville MSA: 1,202,900

Oklahoma City CSA: 1,200,000

Buffalo MSA: 1,159,443

Birmingham CSA: 1,150,916

Richmond MSA: 1,138,234

Rochester CSA: 1,136,401

Albany CSA: 1,135,213

Dayton CSA: 1,081,946

Fresno CSA: 983,788 *most definately above a million

A few Canadian CMA's:

Ottawa-Gatineau 1,132,200

Calgary 1,016,600

Edmonton 990,500 *has to be over a million now

So what are you thoughts, you don't have to comment on every city here especially if your not familiar with them so in other words pick and choose from this list and share your thoughts with us! :P

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Jacksonville is definately in the midst of a boom. Its future is just as bright as any, its one of the faster growing metros in this list, its a popular place for corporate relocations and it has a good job market (thats why I moved here).

Other positives include a great highway system, the skyway express monorail system, one of the south's fastest growing downtowns, and a local attitude with a will to acheive the unexpected (ex. getting an NFL football team, the Super Bowl, etc)

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Jacksonville is definitely making things happen. I think they're on the right track. The rest of the south seems like it won't stop growing/sprawling anytime soon (with the exception of LA). Established cities, like New Orleans and Buffalo may have an advantage in the coming years because of the renewed interest in urban living, but I really can't imagine people wanting to go back to Buffalo.

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Jacksonville is definitely making things happen. I think they're on the right track. The rest of the south seems like it won't stop growing/sprawling anytime soon (with the exception of LA). Established cities, like New Orleans and Buffalo may have an advantage in the coming years because of the renewed interest in urban living, but I really can't imagine people wanting to go back to Buffalo.

I'm not sure how much an interest in urban living translates into population increases.

I moved to New Orleans in the early 70's and people were renovating whole neighborhoods back then and that continued up through the late 90's when I left. And I presume it's still going on.

But people continued to leave, like myself.

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^Why did you choose to leave? Is it because of the economy, job market, crime, etc?

IMO....

Salt Lake City - i see it as having a pretty bright future as well as continued growth but feel it will still be in Denvers shadow

Nashville - dont know enough about it

Raleigh-Durham - same as above

Austin - continued growth and sprawl, bright future

New Orleans - continued deciline then level off i dont see much change in the near future

Greensboro-Winston-Salem - i dunno

Jacksonville - continued growth but i dont know how much of an affect Atlanta, Orlando, & Miami may have on it being that they are usually in the spotlight and are in the same region.

Oklahoma City - steady but slow growth i think it could become a major player for its region in the future but its certainly not an attractive place to be IMO and yes ive been there

Buffalo - i wish things would turn around for this city, theres something about it that i like and its sort of "one" of the first major cities that Canadians see when they come over from Ontario. It would be nice if it could shine again and be like a great example for America as a place that always comes back when times get hard rather than the urban decayed, crime ridden, population declining image some people outside may view American cities as being.

Birmingham - I think this city will see a transformation in the future and people will look back and be like wow this is the new south

Richmond - i dunno

Rochester - slow but steady growth

Albany - slow but steady growth

Dayton - virtually unchanged some growth but nothing major

Fresno - lots of growth, sprawl but still remain overshadowed by the other Californian cities it will probably be like a Cali version of Tucson.

****Louisville - just added i forgot about it! sorry! Anyway i see this city going thru a transformation much like what Birmingham may eventually see, bright future ahead and a very different demographical landscape.

Calgary - bright future a possible major player in the future that could some day rival TO maybe not population wise but business wise perhaps?

Edmonton - steady growth but not that of what will probably be seen in Calgary, i think it may eventually be overshadowed by Calgary in the future.

Thats my crazy opinions!

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Jacksonville - continued growth but i dont know how much of an affect Atlanta, Orlando, & Miami may have on it being that they are usually in the spotlight and are in the same region.

Actually they're all having a positive impact on Jacksonville. Many firms in the development business from those cities have recognized the potential the city has and have been rapidly buying up land and rebuilding the inner city.

There's even one company out of Atlanta, that has spurred the revitalization of a large dense victorian neighborhood, close to downtown, by buying most of the vacant lots (from demolitions over the years) and building infill housing to match the existing residences and also restoring older neglected homes. I've never seen a ghetto begin to change into an upscale neighborhood so quick. One of these days I'll take some pics and post them.

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Nashville has really boomed over the past 30 years and we are seriously adapting to the changes around here while still pushing forward.

The Job Market here is incredibly strong. We're mostly white-collar/service industry with one of the lowest unemplotyment rates in the nation. (Around 4% I believe) Nashville attracted 6 Corporate HQ relocations within the past year including one F500: Caremark RX.

The Nashville MSA was one of the top 15 fastest growing metros over 1mil between 1990 and 2000. Area leaders look for that trend to continue or speed up and have planned by creating regional groups that study the use of mass transit and efficient city planning.

Tourism seems to be on the rebound as Nashville opened many new cultural attractions during the late 90s including a new Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum and the Frist Center for the Visual Arts. Just finishing up construction is a new downtown pedestrian bridge that leads to the new multi-million dollar symphony hall under construction. Also in this area is a hot piece of land called Rolling Mill Hill. Where a thermal plant once stood, developers now imagine a new Sounds Baseball Stadium, 620ft Mixed-Use skyscraper, urban housing, or a luxury hotel.

Nashville is focusing on the inner city more than ever. The Mayor has vowed to double the amount of residential units in DT Nashville by 2010. This goal will be much closer when the Viridian opens in two years. This tower, to be Nashville's 5th tallest, breaks ground in October. Older neighborhoods surrounding downtown are booming with home renovation and infill of new urban townhome and apartment projects and the West End is the site of several new luxury loft/apartment towers. The Mayor has also promised to connect Nashville with hundreds of miles of public Greenways and is building new sidewalks across the city to increase pedestrian activity.

The beginning of this decade seems more promising than the last. We are more prepared for the growth now and have been working as a region and not separate units.

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^Why did you choose to leave? Is it because of the economy, job market, crime, etc?

We left New Orleans primarily because of crime. I could have moved to the suburbs and been relatively safe, but figured then there would still be many of the same disadvantages without the advantages of city life. The economy was a close second.

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Two of NC's three biggest urban areas are on that list. (Charlotte is the 3rd)

Raleigh/Durham - Its biggest asset is its job market which is dominated by High Tech (IBM's largest facility in the world is there for example, as is RedHat), Education (1 Ivy League School, and two very large State Universities), and of course the state government.

Its biggest problem is its growth. The area called the Triange is made up of 3 municipalities, Durham, Raleigh, & Chapel Hill so regional solutions are difficult. Sprawl and an automobile culture are the end result, though Chapel Hill is a fairly nice place. Because of the job situation there, I think it will continue to grow way faster than the national average. One big plus, the area is working on an advanced rail system that will connect the three cities together and to RTP (Research Triangle Park)

Greensboro/Winston-Salem - The slowest growing of the three urban areas of NC but still in the 1990's managed 12% growth. It's biggest assets are its downtown areas. Both Greensboro and Winston have great downtowns that are currently being revitalized and bringing live back to these areas. Greensboro is spending a great deal of money to build condos, a new baseball stadium and new train station DT which will connect to Amtrak and the NC Railroad. (intrastate rail service) Winston-Salem, likewise has gone to great lengths to preserve and restore its DT.

Like the Triangle this Triad's biggest problem is its automobile oriented growth patterns. There are some signs this is changing, but this region is less further along in reversing this pattern than either Charlotte or the Triangle. They are just now talking about bringing rail based transit to the area but it is still years away. I predict however the area will continue to grow.

One interesting thing about these two cities as well as Charlotte, this is the area that will most likely have the next High Speed Rail service in the USA. NC and Virginia are working together to make this happen. Part of the reason for this is the existing rail service which connects the cities of NC together which is actually making a profit. As you can see from this image, the Triangle and the Triad will be connected to High Speed Rail which will give good access to the North East up to Boston. Of course this is very good for growth.

futureservmap.gif

Really good analysis.

I'm concerned, though, that Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham may start to consume the Greensboro-Winston-High Point metro. With only 100 miles between them, as I drive between the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham metros now, there's really only one spot (between Salisbury and Lexington) that's not part of one of these metros. Question is, when will Charlotte become "Charlotte-Winston" and Raleigh-Durham, "Raleigh-Greensboro"?

Given the meager distances between these places and their growing populations, how long will be until there are two big CMSA's in NC instead of 3?

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Salt Lake City - i see it as having a pretty bright future as well as continued growth but feel it will still be in Denvers shadow

It's mighty ironic that you mentioned SLC being in Denver's shadow. Go to the Utah Jazz section of the NBA store. What city skyline is that with the new Utah Jazz logo by it? That's right! Denver! :blink:

http://store.nba.com/gp/browse.html/102-70...b3e95e4d7fee5cf

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Guest donaltopablo

Salt Lake City CSA: 1,518,678 - I imagine steady growth. I don't expect SLC to become a boom town like Phoenix, Vegas, etc. But definitely a bright future.

Nashville CSA: 1,444,500 - Could easily become one of the next southern boom cities. Does have some stereotypes to over come... right or wrong, they seem to be there.

Raleigh-Durham CSA: 1,430,962 - Another potential southern boom town, although steady growth seems more likely. Has some flaws to overcome for the urbanist crowd, but that never really stopped growth before. Strong base of tech jobs, prehaps all Raleigh needs is a more diversified economy (or I may just not know enough about it's economy)

Austin MSA: 1,377,633 - Future boom town. Lots of potential for growth, plenty to do. Weather seems good, location is good. If I had to pick the next boomer out of all of these, this would be my choice.

New Orleans CSA: 1,361,488 - Great character, lots to do, but hefty infrastructure and image problems to over come for it to return to glory. I expect it to remain relatively stable.

Greensboro-Winston-Salem CSA: 1,323,536 - Seems to get lost between Charlotte and Raleigh. It's never good being the third city in a state. However, I think Austin is a good illustration of how an older city with enough character can shine, even with two larger cities in the state. Lots of potential, solid growth. Needs something to make it stand out against it's two bigger neighors to the east and south.

Jacksonville MSA: 1,202,900 - Fighting for image against 3 larger cities in the same state, Jacksonville has a lot of potential to explode. Infrastructure improvements seem to be solid, I'm not sure the next decade will be Jacksonville's time, but could be a major player in Florida in the very near future.

Oklahoma City CSA: 1,200,000 - Can't really comment, although growth seems to be relatively solid.

Buffalo MSA: 1,159,443 - Much like New Orleans, a city with a lot of character hurt by bad image, and in Buffalo's case, weather. Infrastructure to easily support twice the population, Buffalo probably needs more PR than anything else.

Birmingham CSA: 1,150,916 - Despite all that BHam offers, seems to be relatively static city in terms of growth. Not sure what is the bigger factor, image (being in AL, among other things) or simply overshadowed. BHam seems to also have been passed over for a lot of things that could have put it on the center stage. Diversified economy would probably help as well.

Richmond MSA: 1,138,234 - Lots of good things to say about Richmond. Prehaps just losts in the shuffle, also prehaps seems like a city that needs some new economy. City on the drive through seems like an older city with infrastructure problems. Could be part of the problem... except that once you get into the city, you realize that infrastructure is pretty solid and plenty of charm. Prehaps too many people simply pass through and miss what Richmond has to offer. It will likely be discovered one day, but I don't expect any major booming in the next decade.

Rochester CSA: 1,136,401 - Don't know much about it, but image problems. Anything in upstate NY has an uphill battle.

Albany CSA: 1,135,213 - Same as Rochester

Dayton CSA: 1,081,946 - No comment

Fresno CSA: 983,788 *most definately above a million - No comment

Just my opinions, I could be wrong. I've visited most of these places recently (within the last 3 years) so that is the basis for a lot of my opinion.

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Raleigh/Durham - Its biggest asset is its job market which is dominated by High Tech (IBM's largest facility in the world is there for example, as is RedHat), Education (1 Ivy League School, and two very large State Universities), and of course the state government.

The Ivy League consists of eight universities, none of which are located in Raleigh.

The following are Ivy League schools:

Brown University

Columbia University

Cornell University

Dartmouth College

Harvard University

University of Pennsylvania

Princeton University

Yale University

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Hartford is around 1.2 M and seems to be having some good building proposals in the city. I think its growing slow but sure.

Providence is around 1.6 M and it also seems to have a lot of building proposals and slow but steady growth. Providence still has a lot of abandoned factories outside DT and hopefully they will be resused.

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Hartford seems to be just making it's way over the hump with projects like Hartford 21, Adriens Landing, and the new convention centre, along with a smattering of downtown residential projects.

Providence on the other hand is at a major crossroads. There are a number of good developments going on right now, notably a number of mill renovations in the Woonasquatucket Valley. And there is a healthy number of residential units being created Downcity along with a new boutique hotel.

However, there are a number of big projects that are tied up in politicking right now. Parcel 2 at Capital Centre seems to be escaping the politics (parcel two will be a large scale residential/retail development on the edge of Waterplace Park).

The World Headquarters for GTECH project is very mired in the muck at this point however. They are threatening to pull out of their deal because the state is trying to bring in a casino, which could hurt the state's commitment for giving GTECH slot revenues.

The Casino itself is another possible boondoggle that could set Providence way back, sucking what little life the city has fostered right out of it.

A former member of the General Assembly is trying to get some stiff tax breaks out of the state to build a second convention centre hotel, while the General Assembly and the Governor are fighting about it, the developer is sitting on a prime parcel that other developers have expressed interest in.

This hotel mess could jeapardize needed renovation at the city owned Dunkin Donuts Centre. The Convention Authority cannot afford a give-away for a new hotel and renovations to the Dunk. The Mayor has side stepped the state and is trying to get private sector proposals for the Dunkin Donuts Centre, fingers are crossed, the owners of Boston's Fleet Centre have expressed interest.

It's all typical New England politics. Back door deals, and public threats. It could all work itself out, or it could all blow up in the cities face. We'll see what happens.

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I think as far as the small cities go, I'd have to say these cities are on the up and coming list.

1. Chattanooga

2. Knoxville

3. Asheville

4. Roanoke

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Greensboro-Winston-Salem position as third in NC in term of being up and coming is reflected by the local economy. changes are being made and the Triad is in a transition stage with the rebirth of its downtown and focus on design related industries, biotech and infotech and other hitech industries.

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^Asheville seems like an interesting place but what made you decide on Chattanooga & Knoxville as up and coming? I'm just wondering cause i never really hear much about those two places or developments, etc? :unsure:

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I realize its not quite the same thing, but the Greenville CSA and Spartanburg CSA together are over 1,000,000. Under the old system they were in the same metro, and when the 2010 Census comes around, they will likely be rejoined.

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The Ivy League consists of eight universities, none of which are located in Raleigh.

The following are Ivy League schools:

Brown University

Columbia University

Cornell University

Dartmouth College

Harvard University

University of Pennsylvania

Princeton University

Yale University

I was just getting ready to post the same thing.

Duke is a great school...and normally, always ranks in the top 10...I think it's been #5 or #6 the past few years...but indeed, it's not an ivy league school.

I think most people just assume Ivy League is the top schools in the US, when it is actually an organization of schools that have bonded together. I remember thinking in high school that Duke and Stanford were Ivy's...but they aren't.

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Nashville has really boomed over the past 30 years and we are seriously adapting to the changes around here while still pushing forward.

The Job Market here is incredibly strong. We're mostly white-collar/service industry with one of the lowest unemplotyment rates in the nation. (Around 4% I believe) Nashville attracted 6 Corporate HQ relocations within the past year including one F500: Caremark RX.

The Nashville MSA was one of the top 15 fastest growing metros over 1mil between 1990 and 2000. Area leaders look for that trend to continue or speed up and have planned by creating regional groups that study the use of mass transit and efficient city planning.

Tourism seems to be on the rebound as Nashville opened many new cultural attractions during the late 90s including a new Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum and the Frist Center for the Visual Arts. Just finishing up construction is a new downtown pedestrian bridge that leads to the new multi-million dollar symphony hall under construction. Also in this area is a hot piece of land called Rolling Mill Hill. Where a thermal plant once stood, developers now imagine a new Sounds Baseball Stadium, 620ft Mixed-Use skyscraper, urban housing, or a luxury hotel.

Nashville is focusing on the inner city more than ever. The Mayor has vowed to double the amount of residential units in DT Nashville by 2010. This goal will be much closer when the Viridian opens in two years. This tower, to be Nashville's 5th tallest, breaks ground in October. Older neighborhoods surrounding downtown are booming with home renovation and infill of new urban townhome and apartment projects and the West End is the site of several new luxury loft/apartment towers. The Mayor has also promised to connect Nashville with hundreds of miles of public Greenways and is building new sidewalks across the city to increase pedestrian activity.

The beginning of this decade seems more promising than the last. We are more prepared for the growth now and have been working as a region and not separate units.

Its is good to hear great things about Nashvilles growth. That city is finally reaching for new heights in progressive urban growth.

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I think it is a misnomer to place Austin in the "up and coming cities" list. It up and went: Austin boomed in the early 90s and has continued to rapidly grow ever since then. The Unviersity of Texas is the largest assest with 50,000 students. Seems Intel and Dell are now the second.

Upside to Austin: LIVE MUSIC, and great Mexican food.

Downside: Traffic, and the lack of affordable housing. The Austin housing market looks more like California's then the Texas market. Oh yeah, suffocating humid heat in the summer and conservative politics.

In the south I would say Asheville and Chatanooga are the two best kept secrets and could easily be considered up and coming cities in the small city category. Both have made great efforts at sustainable growth and urban revitalization.

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