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Telmnstr

Anyone else excited?

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Is anyone else excited? We might actually see proper home prices again in the near future! Young people will be able to buy (with the proper down payment and income) a place to call home without overpaying into a speculative mania!!!

Could be good for America! We'll see the stock market return to proper values, housing will be proper values, and with any luck maybe a bunch of white collars in prison!

As you can see, our lying politicians tried to say that the country would fail if the bailout wasn't passed. This whole "keep people in constant fear" is a technique used by different groups (politicians with terrorism, churches with myth of burning in eternal hell, etc.). The fear thing seems to be a good age old tactic (see Adam Curtis's Century of the Self).

Anyways ... I'm saying what is happening in the economy isn't bad. Ill gotten gains need to be given back, and people need to dethrone these people that are ruining our country.

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I think the bailout is a heinous insult to a Capitalist, republican society (little "r" - republican, as my GOVT prof likes to emphasize)... but I think it was politics that prevented cowardly politicians from passing it today. The rebound in the market was merely making up for yesterday; yesterday was deliberate, investors sold off what they had in a massive way to tell Congress how they feel. With $1.2 trillion in lost market values in a few hours, that's quite a message.

The problem with the state of affairs is that it isn't like hitting a "reset" button Tel - no one knows what's going on. I'm being literal - NO ONE, not Ben Bernanke, not George Bush, not John McCain, nor Barack Obama - knows how to fix this problem, or even the extent of the problem. $700 billion is a modest estimate of the problems. The thing is, as the big companies fail one by one, they sell off their assets in 'bundles' to foreign investors and to other industries, like retirement fund companies. This splits up the good and bad mortgages at random; no one knows when they buy a "bundle" if it's full of good or bad mortgages until the first or the middle of the month; then suddenly (like around September 15-18) companies go under because they got a large number of bad mortgages - no one paid them, so you lose billions overnight.

This is a global problem; yesterday, Commerzbank lost 1/4 of its total value (it wasn't nationalized as NBC reported - the dumba!!es) - that is not insignificant. Speculative buying and overabuse of credit lines extend well beyond our borders.

This little 480 point rebound today isn't going to magically reset everything. It does not indicate that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." (GAG ME) It indicates that investors and stock brokers are still pissed as hell, and the problem has not been fixed. It is going to get worse until it is resolved and - like it or not - a bailout is the way to do it. Unless one of us here is somehow magically an economic genius the likes of which the world has not seen since Adam Smith, we're at the whims of Congress (God help us all). If we could somehow "un-bundle" these mortgages, separate the bad from good, and keep the essentials moving in the credit markets, we'd be fine.

But right now, we don't have the cold hard cash to do so. (where we = America) We're somewhere between $9.5-10 trillion in debt; what's another $700 billion..........

This makes me sick to my stomach.

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If it means you'll stop posting about the bubble, then yes i'm very excited. :P In the short term, no i'm not excited at all. A lot of people are in for a lot of pain and many will lose their jobs. I have no desire to see a redux of the Great Depression and I think it's a steep price to pay for lower housing prices. That said, what I think is irrelevant because it's happening now and nothing, not even a bailout, can stop it.

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Is anyone else excited? We might actually see proper home prices again in the near future! Young people will be able to buy (with the proper down payment and income) a place to call home without overpaying into a speculative mania!!!

Could be good for America! We'll see the stock market return to proper values, housing will be proper values, and with any luck maybe a bunch of white collars in prison!

As you can see, our lying politicians tried to say that the country would fail if the bailout wasn't passed. This whole "keep people in constant fear" is a technique used by different groups (politicians with terrorism, churches with myth of burning in eternal hell, etc.). The fear thing seems to be a good age old tactic (see Adam Curtis's Century of the Self).

Anyways ... I'm saying what is happening in the economy isn't bad. Ill gotten gains need to be given back, and people need to dethrone these people that are ruining our country.

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I really doubt the prices are going to go down like you think Tel

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I really doubt the prices are going to go down like you think Tel

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Rus -- that has always been Tel's mistake -- gleefully, and mistakenly, extrapolating national trends onto home prices in Hampton Roads. Never had the overbuilding, never had the speculating, never had the flipping here, that was endemic in SoCal, Las Vegas, and South Florida. He will most certainly miss about the first 20-25% of the inevitable upturn in home prices, in the only place that counts -- where you are living. He will be a slave to those national websites, with national trends, and miss what happens right in his own back yard.

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We had a 100% gain in values in Virginia Beach...

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Actually, over a ten year period, we had a 155% increase. In a vacuum, that is eye popping. But where your analysis is flawed, is what has happened in the downturn? Over the last year, VB is down 4% (based on actual sales). In contrast, CA is down 22% -- some neighborhoods in San Bernardino county (home of the most rampant speculation) are down 31%. Henderson, NV -- center of the Las Vegas overbuilding -- down 17%. I have seen a "land rush" RE environment -- nothing of the sort happened here, and the relatively small fall off in values is proof. That "one company that had 150 - 200 properties"? Slum lord scam, dedicated to ripping off investors, so don't try to make something out of nothing.

Your mistake, Tel, is looking at your home as a store of value. Has always been a mistake, will always be a mistake. Your determination to be right will cost you 20-25% in appreciation, because you are trying to time the market to a gnat's *ss. Find a place you like, can afford, buy it, and keep it for 20 years. You won't go wrong.

One other piece of unsoliticted advice? All that time you spend here, and on the VP, you might think about spending on more "important" pursuits. One is your job - the other is #2 on most guy's lists. If you don't understand, Rus can explain it to you, I am pretty certain.

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155% increase, with little to no increase in salaries...

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Ok. I'm excited, as in terrified. I can't ever retire and I guess I have to grow my own food and maybe learn to perform minor surgery on myself.

Seriously though, this whole problem really isn't about housing and I'm concerned that so many people still think that it is. The real issue is the nature of our mode of production. We have squandered trillions of dollars in a series of marginally productive pursuits, ranging from ill advised warfare strategies to highly levereged property schemes. Why won't the banks lend, even with all this new governmental assistance? Why would they? There's no viable substitute yet for the economy of the last 15 years. I'm convinced that we need a contemporary equivalent to the old WPA of the 1930s, but with lots of free market participation. Construct offshore wind and tidal energy farms, build electric personal vehicles, rebuild the national infrastructure and create a national, rapid rail system. Improve solar panel efficiency and make the new technology available to everyone. These activities will create thousands of jobs, get us off of imported oil and give us some workable transportation alternatives. Now that would be something worthy of investment.

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I'm convinced that we need a contemporary equivalent to the old WPA of the 1930s, but with lots of free market participation. Construct offshore wind and tidal energy farms, build electric personal vehicles, rebuild the national infrastructure and create a national, rapid rail system. Improve solar panel efficiency and make the new technology available to everyone. These activities will create thousands of jobs, get us off of imported oil and give us some workable transportation alternatives. Now that would be something worthy of investment.

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Once again, wrong. 1999 VB average HH income -- $48,442 2006 VB average HH income -- $59,520.

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Ok. I'm excited, as in terrified. I can't ever retire and I guess I have to grow my own food and maybe learn to perform minor surgery on myself.

Seriously though, this whole problem really isn't about housing and I'm concerned that so many people still think that it is. The real issue is the nature of our mode of production. We have squandered trillions of dollars in a series of marginally productive pursuits, ranging from ill advised warfare strategies to highly levereged property schemes. Why won't the banks lend, even with all this new governmental assistance? Why would they? There's no viable substitute yet for the economy of the last 15 years. I'm convinced that we need a contemporary equivalent to the old WPA of the 1930s, but with lots of free market participation. Construct offshore wind and tidal energy farms, build electric personal vehicles, rebuild the national infrastructure and create a national, rapid rail system. Improve solar panel efficiency and make the new technology available to everyone. These activities will create thousands of jobs, get us off of imported oil and give us some workable transportation alternatives. Now that would be something worthy of investment.

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Either maglev or electric could do the trick. The French have achieved near maglev speeds using their newest electric systems, at a much lower cost. But there might be some breaktroughs with maglev to come, and along with some economies of scale, maglev might compete better with the airlines. Either systems require lots of very straight right of way to attain maximum speeds. That will be a challenge along the eastern seaboard--lots of real estate to buy up. Another interesting factor with regard to air travel: synthetic fuels don't provide enough kick to give comparable performance to conventional jet fuel. For now, it looks like rail is a more sustainable technology.

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The French have achieved near maglev speeds using their newest electric systems, at a much lower cost.

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Speaking of rail... has anyone else heard this lady running for the Senate whose answer to every problem the country faces is mass transit, specifically rail? I love trains as much as anyone, especially on UP, but come on. Financial crisis... rail. Budget deficit... rail. Value of the dollar... rail. Iraq... rail. I wasn't the only one flabbergasted listening to her on the radio, someone called in and said she thought she was listening to Sarah Palin.

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Speaking of rail... has anyone else heard this lady running for the Senate whose answer to every problem the country faces is mass transit, specifically rail? I love trains as much as anyone, especially on UP, but come on. Financial crisis... rail. Budget deficit... rail. Value of the dollar... rail. Iraq... rail. I wasn't the only one flabbergasted listening to her on the radio, someone called in and said she thought she was listening to Sarah Palin.

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Who is this lady and what state is she running for? Sounds like a Democrat to me :whistling:

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Ok, it ain't just rail. We've got the ability to harness enough wind and tidal power to solve most of our energy problems. Dominion Power is only paying lip service to this idea, if that. My sense is that they would rather invest in offshore drilling, nuclear and coal technologies for now. Those are worthwhile short term activities (not without environmental hazard), but we need much more governmental encouragement in developing the sustainable sources. If lenders provide capital, the free market can handle most of this, but not without more research and development grants and legal assistance.

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We've got the ability to harness enough wind and tidal power to solve most of our energy problems.

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SCM--glad you are involved in these new developments. It's an exciting time.

With respect to limits on wind, tide and solar energy, I'm going to agree with you in terms of current potential, but not in the long term. These technologies are emerging rapidly. The wave buoy motion capture techniques will become more efficient, and the objections of the fishing industry and other complications (probably the Navy) can be resolved. Additionally, wind energy is not intermittant at higher altitudes (see Kitegen and other efforts to harness wind energy at about 700 meters or so). Offshore wind farms will also experience less intermittancy. I like the Pickens approach, but natural gas production just isn't sustainable indefinitely. I'm more of an optimist than the energy industry spokesmen are. After all, they have a vested interest in continuing our current practices.

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scm, you want to open an L.A. office? Do you do any work with Prof. Dave Basco at ODU?

Both you and Padman are missing one thing in your discussion: batteries (or some kind of energy storage). Energy storage during peak production periods is key to making solar, wind, tidal, and wave all constant sources. Dams work because we store the potential energy of the water until its needed (as an aside, I'm not a fan of dams for energy production because of the environmental damage they cause). We need a better way to store the photo and mechanical energies produced by these renewable resources.

As for T. Boone Pickens' plan, although the best motivation to developing alternative energies is capitalism (with a fair amount of gov't and industry sponsored research at the university and gov't lab levels), his motive goes beyond that. He bought up plenty of west Texas land for cheap back in the 80's and 90's knowing that the massive Ogallala aquifer lies beneath and Texas has a first to pump water rights law. He's been pushing Dallas to buy that water, but Dallas has balked. In order to force Dallas's hand, he needs to build a pipeline which requires an easement. No one is willing to sell and since Dallas doesn't want the water, he can't use eminent domain. Therefore, he sees the wind potential of the property as well as the natural gas as his solution. The speculative energy crisis provided him an out. If he develops those two energy sources and builds powerlines to Dallas, which it isn't likely to refuse, then T. Boone can build his pipeline and drain the aquifer. Smart but sinister.

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scm, you want to open an L.A. office? Do you do any work with Prof. Dave Basco at ODU?

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I'll ask my buddy who is our point man to ODU.

On the storage issue -- you're right. Did you know, in the seventies, there was a plan to use pumped storage in the Sierras north of Fresno. That way, nuclear plants (like Diablo Canyon) would take their night time production to pump water up hill to a high resevoir, then release it at peak demand, generate electricity, retain the water, and repeat the next night. I don't think the linked lakes ever got built. I know they do that at Castaic, near LA, right? Just not as dramatic -- they were talking 1,000 foot drop.

Boone Pickens -- when you have $4B, are you really worried about making more? I think the guy is sincere.

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