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The economy and its effects on Charlotte


Charlotte_native

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BofA is now up to 35,000 layoffs and it is expected the layoffs will hit Charlotte much harder than what we (well not me) were led to believe. This was the WCNC news at 6pm. Even that professor at UNCC, Plath I believe, who has consistently said the layoffs won't hit Charlotte hard has now had to reverse himself and admit that it is going to be bad. The only positive thing he could say is that it won't happen all at once.

Next up Wachovia.

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BofA is now up to 35,000 layoffs and it is expected the layoffs will hit Charlotte much harder than what we (well not me) were led to believe. This was the WCNC news at 6pm. Even that professor at UNCC, Plath I believe, who has consistently said the layoffs won't hit Charlotte hard has now had to reverse himself and admit that it is going to be bad. The only positive thing he could say is that it won't happen all at once.

Next up Wachovia.

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^....Funny thing about the how posts are viewed. I posted the source of the news announcement and I leave it to the reader to determine the validity of said news source. Whenever I offer up my opinion of the local media it gets poo poo'd as being unfair to them. That is why I didn't do it this time. Charlotte Native, you started this topic in order to discuss the opinion of the local Charlotte housing market. I have never called you as being an unrealistic pollyanna for holding the views that you do. So I ask that you show the same respect by not continuing to suggest that I am gleeful in the opinions I have of the matter. If you start a topic of opinion then you have to be ready for those opinions. If you can only respond as you just did, then I see no point in continuing.

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If people want to continue to believe this is a non-issue for Charlotte then it really doesn't matter to me as it doesn't change the facts. I posted above why I thought 30,000 was too low using fairly simple math that anyone could understand. It was dismissed. Now that a local news operation is posting that in fact that simple math was correct, then all of a sudden the personal attacks towards me resume. Fine, I will delete some for being totally off topic, leave others, etc, and try to have a discussion with the rest. How you feel about me doesn't change the facts.

One more time. If you don't like what I post put me on ignore. I will even send you instructions on how to do it if you can't figure it out. If instead you hurl a personal attack then don't act indignant at the response you might get.

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On a related set of news. Housing closings for November were down something like 33% over the last year and even more disturbing the sales price was down close to 20%. This is a rather significant drop and why I said earlier the real estate market was cratering in this city. I got criticism for that word too, but IMO 1/5 loss is cratering.

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I don't think anyone on here is in denial that there won't be some negative effect on the local economy monsoon. It's how the news is being expressed that's bothersome. If something positive happens, which is far and few between these days, you're no where to be found. Negative news comes out, you're one of the first to broadcast it every time. I doubt few people would disagree with that.

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I wonder though if BOA will consolidate more of it's regional offices to Charlotte? Specifically Atlanta. It no longer makes sense for BOA to have such a large prescence there & that was echoed a few weeks ago when they were warning the owners of the Bank of America Tower they would move out if they didn't renovate it.

Article here: http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/sto...02800%5E1737032 . Of course, that is just 650 jobs, but I wonder if there are other regional headquarters that would be considered redundant.

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Uhhh. Thanks for clarifying monsoon but I still see no reason for BOA to spread out it's resources when they could consolidate further, what I would expect is for layoffs to occur in Charlotte and nationwide & some business functions would be consolidated in Charlotte. Thus the blow could be lessened, hopefully.

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On a related set of news. Housing closings for November were down something like 33% over the last year and even more disturbing the sales price was down close to 20%. This is a rather significant drop and why I said earlier the real estate market was cratering in this city. I got criticism for that word too, but IMO 1/5 loss is cratering.
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I took a look at Uptown Charlotte MLS stats comparing YTD 2007 to YTD 2008 and the Sales Volume is down 45% but the 2008 Avg Sales Price is nearly identical to 2007 Avg Sales price (up 0.2%) Looks like uptown Charlotte has not seen the price decline that the overall market is seeing. If the economy continues down the road it has been on then I would guess that Uptown will start seeing some price declines.

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^Last time you cited these numbers, it was discovered that downtown property had in fact dropped. I think anyone right now, who puts a contract on a place with the current pricing is taking a bad roll of the dice. On the other hand, they probably can't get the credit anyway. Not until prices fall back to reflect real income.

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Average price/

Avg/price per foot

Complex/Project 2007 2008

Avenue $341,823 / $330.26 $318,591 / $337.49 +

Springfield Square $221,069 / $229.32 $205,662 / $212.02 -

Third Ward $319,013 / $285.08 $328,129 / $270.06 -

Gateway $225,687 / $270.28 $225,000 / $281.25 +

Fifth & Poplar $398,319 / $365.09 $301,090 / $339.45 -

Courtside $547,625 / $379.24 $341,750 / $245.16 - - -

Cityview $265,700 / $254.99 $305,000 / $231.41 -

Trademark $388,444 / $340.44 $382,259 / $357.92 +

Silo Lofts $143,166 / $276.91 $160,000 / $304.18 +

626 Graham $188,450 / $238.24 $184,200 / $237.37 essentially even

M Street $294,529 / $231.18 $299,500 / $234.71 +

230 S. Tryon $518,188 / $412.24 $388,750 / $430.03 +

The Poplar $346,500 / $278.98 $420,000 / $270.96 -

Clarkson Green $319,150 / $204.58 $299,650 / $195.97 -

Tivoli $208,533 / $231.70 $193,937 / $226.03 -

Some up, some down, each way generally by just a bit -- the only a couple with significant movement up or down. Statistically, with little exception, there hasn't been much appreciation or depreciation, most remaining still.

EDIT -- sorry that turned out so hard to read, the first price and price per foot is for 2007, then the next set for 2008

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I eyeball the MLS every few months and a few differences pop out at me. Flippers are being more realistic in Wilmore and other nearby areas - not as many of those slapped together renovations in the $350K+ range that I used to laugh at. Single bedroom condos in 28203 are creeping into the 140s. Some of these are probably distress sales, but it used to be the only units under 170 were a few leftovers from the builder.

Basically "fantasy pricing" is being knocked out, but real value is still supported. I would say a true resale market has established itself. The recent fall in interest rates is improving affordability, too. So we have some price points where payments match rental rates and we should not see much more fall, as long as there are enough jobs.

I've seen basically no change in a year, for near-town neighborhoods like Madison Park and Montclaire.

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Average price/

.......

Some up, some down, each way generally by just a bit -- the only a couple with significant movement up or down. Statistically, with little exception, there hasn't been much appreciation or depreciation, most remaining still.

EDIT -- sorry that turned out so hard to read, the first price and price per foot is for 2007, then the next set for 2008

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Uptown condos are their own mini-market, and it doesn't take much fall in demand to skew the sales. I generally look outside 277 to get an idea of what "real pricing" is doing. That's where "most people" are looking, and "most people" are still interested in having a yard and some quiet away from the traffic and bright lights of uptown.

Getting back to the economy in general and not real estate specifically, I do overhear more people worried about their 401Ks, more talk of acquaintences being let go. We are reaching that realization among managerial circles that this isn't just a slowdown to weather by cutting back on inkjet cartridges.

Also, FWIW - economists nearly always claim that things will improve in six months. It's sort of like the 5 day weather forecast. During a drought, it will show a "chance of rain" on the 5th day. The forecasters don't *really* know. They just have a hint of optimism on the far end of their projection range. After all, it will rain again someday.

Even if companies begin to be profitable again in late 2009, it will be from all the cost-cutting and they won't be eager to re-hire. For the most part, I expect 2009 to be a "lost year" - and a rotten time to be looking for work.

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You are showing average sales price of places that sold over the entire year. One doesn't have to look to hard to see that condos in places like The Catylist are not selling at all and last I heard The Vue is still 50% unsold. The encore sounds like its going to be canceled. Finally looking at Zillow.com one also finds that most of the sales for downtown occured in the first 1/2 of the year. A quick check of say 4th ward, here the Ave is found and others, shows just 23 sales since June, a handful in the last few months.

It's the next 1/2 year that is going to be the telling tale of pricing. But 2 dead towers, maybe a 3rd joining them, more canceled projects and others being converted to apts. isn't good for the real estate appreciation.

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Uptown condos are their own mini-market, and it doesn't take much fall in demand to skew the sales. I generally look outside 277 to get an idea of what "real pricing" is doing. That's where "most people" are looking, and "most people" are still interested in having a yard and some quiet away from the traffic and bright lights of uptown.
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^Still that is opinion. A lot of people live uptown and enjoy it very much. Price, at least now based on actual sales, haven't fallen with an overall perspective, and many of the amenities you pointed out weren't there are there now and they (the businesses) seem to be doing fine. The many things you point out that are having difficulties should come as no surprise given the extraordinary times that the nation is dealing with.

You can disagree with people wanting to buy property uptown or the fact that many seem to like it, you can call it hysterical and it is in your opinion. But the fact is many people wanted, and want, this type of living and the current economy is certainly having its affects. Back to predicting the future, you, nor I, will know how it all ends up in the long run until time has past. Now it is all just opinion.

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