CATS 2030 Transit Plan is Dead

[monsoon]

Well first of all it is safe to say that Mecklenburg county will grow by at least 300,000 (or even 500,000) people by 2030. The greater metro might have another 1 million or more folks by then too. .... I wonder if CATS is getting a loan for some of these transit projects much like a person gets a loan for a house. ...

[urban980]

I am not sure I agree that "it is safe to say" we will see those sorts of growth rates in the future. While this is a very diversified economy restructuring in the financial sector will make our next 20 years VERY different from our past 20 years.

[uptownliving]

^ Thanks for the context. Given that explanation, it makes me more irritated that we are now reconsidering future collections. If they are based on a 20 year average, why should we be so presumptuous to assume that several down years (now) won't be compensated by higher than average growth years in the future. In other words, you the point of a long-term average growth is that is captures economic cycles.

If they are simply trying to re-establish what a suitable base year is, then fine, but I don't like the idea of tweaking growth rates based on singular annual observations.

[kermit]

The reason why I said that is because Charlotte has had that kind of growth rate for the past 100 plus years. Even during the Great Depression, Charlotte posted a high rate of growth from 1920 to 1940. It is hard to ignore Charlotte's long history of growth. An increase of only 300,000 folks over the next 21 years is a slower rate of growth than the last 20. Keep in mind that Mecklenburg has added nearly 400,000 people in the last 20 years. Being that this county had only 500,000 people 20 years ago, it is safe to say that this county of 900,000 people can add 300,000 easily in the next 21 years. I hope this makes sense.

[southslider]

How soon we all forget that before this economic downturn, that even then, timely delivery of added transit corridors already depended on additional funding sources outside the County half-cent sales tax. North Corridor was already expected to use TIF on its generated TOD to make up for the lack of federal funding. Northeast Corridor was already expecting the State to match County sales tax dollars for the local match needed to secure federal New Starts funding. And Streetcar was never expected to be built anytime soon, unless Charlotte wanted to kick in more local funding separate from the sales tax. So what has changed? Indeed, CATS is now only making operational cuts so that it can still stay on track for delivering the promises made in the system plan.

[urban980]

I do understand what you are saying, many folks (including the Chamber) use the "rear-view mirror" approach to growth forecasting. However, doing so relies on the assumption that the forces which drove past growth will continue to drive future growth. IMO the two primary forces that drove Charlotte's (the city) growth over the past 20 years are vanishing.

The first is annexation, city limits have been pushed steadily outwards http://ww.charmeck.org/GIS/elapse.htm Now that the city limits are up against the county line in many places (and the legislature is getting cranky about NC's current annexation policy) that growth will stop. On the other hand I think it is reasonable to expect an increase in population density in Charlotte, but that growth needs to be triggered by something (like job creation) or may come at the expense of suburban areas within Charlotte.

The second factor driving Charlotte's growth over the past 20 years was the expansion of the economic base (e.g. job creation). A large portion of this (somewhere between 12 and 30 percent depending on how you define the local linkages to other occupations) was driven by the rapid expansion of banking as the industry deregulated. While I am an optimist on the future of BofA I think it is clear to many at this point that the days of rapid growth in the finance industry have come to an end. Given the high incomes that come with many banking jobs their loss will have larger local economic impacts than the loss of a lower wage jobs.

So what will create jobs (and thus drive growth) here as we move into the future?

[monsoon]

^Well, I guess it is a matter of opinion. You can't predict the future by looking at the past. St. Louis was once the 4th largest city in the nation, and if you had looked at it in 1950 you would assume that by 2000 it would rival NYC. However, instead, due to circumstances that nobody would have imagined, it lost over 500,000 during that period.

However the point is on the 300,000 people being added to Mecklenburg by 2030. Would it make any difference? No. And the reason for that is these kind of numbers have already been baked into the failed 2030 plan. The entire premise of having all the transit lines terminate in the center city (in itself another problem) is that 100,000 people would be working there by this point. This also seems to be in jeopardy given the loss of Wachovia and IMO, a significant downsizing in the finance industry is coming in any case.

As the numbers above pretty much prove, the transit tax is being completely eaten up by operational costs and the promises we were given about trains being built if it was voted in, were in fact not true. At this point the 2030 Plan is nothing more than ink on paper because there isn't a committed plan to fund it and, as I said above, without significant new taxes being imposed on the people, it's not going to be built. So the question comes into play. Which set of local politicians are going to go to the people to tell them, we are going to raise your taxes again because we need much much more public assistance to build these lines? Quick answer: there are no politicians in Charlotte that are willing to say this.

[urban980]

^Well, I guess it is a matter of opinion. You can't predict the future by looking at the past. St. Louis was once the 4th largest city in the nation, and if you had looked at it in 1950 you would assume that by 2000 it would rival NYC. However, instead, due to circumstances that nobody would have imagined, it lost over 500,000 during that period.

[urban980]

How soon we all forget that before this economic downturn, that even then, timely delivery of added transit corridors already depended on additional funding sources outside the County half-cent sales tax. North Corridor was already expected to use TIF on its generated TOD to make up for the lack of federal funding. Northeast Corridor was already expecting the State to match County sales tax dollars for the local match needed to secure federal New Starts funding. And Streetcar was never expected to be built anytime soon, unless Charlotte wanted to kick in more local funding separate from the sales tax. So what has changed? Indeed, CATS is now only making operational cuts so that it can still stay on track for delivering the promises made in the system plan.

[Spartan]

Good point!!! I don't think much has changed from what was originally promised, but unfortunately CATS made "new promises" during the transit tax repeal vote that has some of us a little upset. Mainly the East Side of town is now expecting a train when they were orginally promised a busway. I think they should get a train too (being that they have the city's highest bus ridership).

[monsoon]

How soon we all forget that before this economic downturn, that even then, timely delivery of added transit corridors already depended on additional funding sources outside the County half-cent sales tax. North Corridor was already expected to use TIF on its generated TOD to make up for the lack of federal funding. Northeast Corridor was already expecting the State to match County sales tax dollars for the local match needed to secure federal New Starts funding. And Streetcar was never expected to be built anytime soon, unless Charlotte wanted to kick in more local funding separate from the sales tax. So what has changed? ...

[urban980]

Which Eastside transit route are you talking about? I think you're confusing two different things. Streetcar (which is on rails) will eventually extend to Eastland Mall. The city's highest bus ridership is on Central, which is where the streetcar would go. BRT would extend out Independence, which does not carry the city's highest ridership.

[Spartan]

So where was a train ever promised on Independence? Other than the one senator who's holding some transit tax (that nobody is asking for) over Mecklenburg County's head I've not heard of any effort to build light rail on Independence.

[southslider]

The shortfall of sales taxes in the near-term is far from the biggest hurdle facing each corridor. Put another way, each corridor has its own funding challenges independent of the sales tax.

For the Purple Line (North Corridor CR), you still have to make up for not using New Starts. Either that is the stimulus (but an opportunity cost to other needs), since it is the most shovel-ready corridor (not counting the small project of West Corridor's enhanced bus), or you use TIF on TOD. Since the development (at least its intensity) wouldn't arguably occur without the project, why not have new revenues pay off the investment that generated the incremental increase in tax base? The project would still receive a higher percentage (not absolute, since a much cheaper total) of its costs paid with the County tax.

For the Blue Line Extension (NE Corridor LRT), the usual federal hoops would likely lead to delays anyway. Then again, maybe the next Transportation Reauthorization makes transit easier. And maybe the match could also be increased to be more on par with highway projects. If so, then you may not need to delay construction.

For Center City Streetcar, you have the controversial dilemma of needing an alternate funding source if you expect to build anything sooner than all other corridors, except maybe North. But while the in-town areas (Uptown, Elizabeth, Plaza-Central) are the most capable of generating added funding via TIF and MSD, the outer areas (Beatties Ford and Eastland) have the ridership. So you have real trade-offs in phasing and funding, if you truly want to accelerate this project in phases, which is the only way to build any part of it in the near future.

For the Silver Line (SE BRT), you have the obvious technology debate, which is the only reason its horizon was pushed past 2020 in the 2030 update of the system plan. Though admittedly cheaper to build LRT down Independence than along the NCRR and North Tryon, you're in the middle of Independence, limiting development. Plus, if streetcar does ever go down Central to Eastland, should East Charlotte really have two rail lines? West Charlotte is expected to live with only enhanced bus for a very long time. Indeed, if the community had accepted BRT, the widening of US 74 with interchanges and stations could all be under construction now, since Dubya's FTA was very pro-BRT.

[uptownliving]

If the Feds can provide 50% of the costs of the North Line then it can be built....the money is there. Anyone can go look at CATS bank accounts and see that there is enough money to cover the 25% Local match for the North Line.

[monsoon]

.... CATS hopes that bringing the streetcar to the east side years ahead of schedule will stop the push for an east side light rail line....

[southslider]

This just in, the conference committee stimulus bill only has transit funding for existing formulas, not major new capital projects. So then, the Purple Line (North CR) will definitely need other local funding, but again, it doesn't have to be an increase in the sales tax rate.

The Blue Line (South LRT) only received 25% of its costs from the half-cent sales tax. Because the Purple Line is much cheaper, CATS can afford to pay larger percentage of its costs with the sales tax, but not 100%. So then, unless the nearly-bankrupt State wants to pay the difference, it looks like the North Meck towns (and the three stations in Charlotte) will need TIF to complete this project on-time.

[urban980]

I think you are under the mistaken impression that CATS sets transportation priorities and plans in this county.

[monsoon]

.... I should have said "those that are interested in seeing trains built in Charlotte without an interruption to the transit tax" are hoping the streetcar pacifies the east and west side enough to get Mecklenburg county out of building light rail to those areas.

[kermit]

Good question!!! The indirect answer is job growth is not the only factor that drives growth. Many jobs now are non-traditional (done by computers and are not location specific). Many folks are moving to cheap mid sized cities like Charlotte simply because Charlotte is cheap (not because of a job). Also, I am sure you have heard of the "halfbacks". Folks from the North that moved to Florida and has now retired in the Carolinas. This trend will likely continue regardless of job creation because these folks are retired.

With that said, my direct answer to your question is that Charlotte will continue to grow as long as the South as a whole is growing. Charlotte's next big job creator will likely be telecommunications, education (colleges), health care, and science (Bio-tech lab in Kannapolis). Charlotte will still continue to be a distribution hub (ie trucking), but will continue to grow in air and rail freight transport. Energy is also going to be a bigger job creator in Charlotte's future (it already is now). We may even see a much larger retail and tourism sector in the next 20 years.

[Spartan]

In spite of your pessimism, none of those things have been an issue thus far in Charlotte's development. I don't see why it would matter now. Charleston used to be the 4th largest city in America. That didn't stop Charlotte from growing though, did it?

[kermit]

In spite of your pessimism, none of those things have been an issue thus far in Charlotte's development. I don't see why it would matter now. Charleston used to be the 4th largest city in America. That didn't stop Charlotte from growing though, did it?

[southslider]

North Meck towns are already set to get more than their fair share of the County sales tax, in that the Purple Line could have the largest share yet of any rail transit project paid out of that County-wide funding source. The only problem is those funds can't cover the full cost of the project. And if the Feds (previously nixed for New Starts, and no discretionary transit funds in latest stimulus) or the State won't make up what the sales tax can't cover, then it's up to North Meck towns to pursue TIF on their station areas. Charlotte appears willing to TIF its three stations. Now only the Towns need to agree.

With MTC in control of the purse, Commuter Rail still comes before Streetcar. And even if it fails due to lack of participation by North Meck Towns, then Northeast comes before Streetcar. True, North Meck Towns could easily drop the ball on matching the largest share of sales taxes yet. However, even if a Town like Huntersville says no to TIF (effectively killing the project), I strongly doubt MTC would turn around and approve those sales tax funds to instead match Charlotte TIF/MSD for a starter streetcar line. That is because there is still too much uncertainty about how much local match may be needed for the Blue Line Extension.

As for the BLE, while the stimulus does increase funding for New Starts, there are many cities already in Final Design or closer to a Full Funding Grant Agreement than Charlotte. Hopefully, the Transportation Reauthorization further boosts New Starts for BLE and expands the eligibility of Small Starts to include commuter rail and streetcar.

[southslider]

Learning more about the final stimulus bill, there is evidently $1.5 Billion in USDOT discretionary funding, for which "shovel-ready" highway and transit projects can both compete. Seems then that North Corridor Commuter Rail could have one get-out-of-TIF-free card left to play. And with most of the transportation money in the stimulus going to highway-loving NCDOT to distribute under existing programs, a special grant may be the only shot.

[monsoon]

The TIF approach is dead. It died a year ago. No council in its right mind is going to make bets on the future value of real estate or even if it will be built. CATS assumptions on development around these lines and their ability increase to the tax base are like every other projection they have made. Woefully optimistic, not realistic, and if based on their past record of these things, completely wrong. One only has to look at the state of real estate development on the South LRT between SouthEnd and Woodlawn to see that absolutely nothing has happened over the last 18 months and many projects are dying a slow to fast death. If that had been TIF financed, then Charlotte would be in a lot of trouble.