Thinking Ahead: CATS 2035 Transit Plan

[tozmervo]

I noticed that someone (from UP? I don't know.) has been toying with a couple of commuter lines on my 2030 google map*. One goes down into York Co and the other west into Gaston. The imagined Gaston line forks out in Gastonia into Denver and Kings Mountain. It's interesting to see 2035/40/45 lines visualized, it makes the whole system seem more and more comprehensive. I reckon CR to Kannapolis and Monroe wouldn't be too far behind.

* Because there's so much information on the map, Google has split it up into two pages. The 2030 lines are largely on page 1. If you open the map in Google Earth, it will show everything at one time.

[dubone]

Given the lower tax proceeds and the fact that we can't seem to get a break on new revenue (such as being explicitly excluded from the recent law allowing local transit sales tax option), the 2035 plan will be the same as the 2030 and the 2025 plan as far as scope, just slight differences in schedules... such as everything will be pushed out 10 years from the 2025 plan. I remember fondly how I was tricked by all those public meetings into believing the streetcar could reasonably be completed by 2009. Now it is not expected until the 2020s, and the NE line has basically been pushed to 2019. The NCDOT of funding of the conversion of Independence keeps getting pushed out further and further, so that means the transit lanes won't be done to Crown Pointe anytime in the next decade, so the Orange line (regardless of technology) will also be pushed into the 2020s, and probably 2030s if it is to be light rail.

Stop dreaming people, we'll be lucky if we get what we've been promised for the last decade.

[cltbwimob]

^

While I agree that we would be lucky to get at least the BLE and North CR built in the next decade, I don't think it's too far fetched to start thinking ahead to regional rail plans. I think it is true that the future transit plans will probably be similar in scope to 2025 and 2030 in that they will still focus on the centers and corridors framework, however I think technology decisions are very fluid. For instance, the 2025 only allowed for rail transit to the North and South; the other three corridors were all slated for bus transit, but in the 2030 plan 3 corridors were slated for rail transit, one for BRT with a possibility of conversion to LRT and a SC corridor to the West. As such, I think it's a possibility that MTC could change the scope of the transit plan in terms of technology choices by switching the West corridor streetcar to a commuter rail line to Gastonia and the Southeast BRT to LRT.

I think this particular thread has focused a lot of attention to the SE corridor BRT/LRT debate so I will just give my reasons for thinking that CR to Gastonia should be favored in lieu of streetcar service to the airport.

1. There is already support for this idea. While it is support for the idea of reopening the P&N line, the idea of commuter rail service connecting the two cities has support...at least in concept. Many people however think that Center City SC is a boondoggle, and I can only imagine those sentiments being extended to the West Corridor SC line when it comes to the table.

2. Based on current estimated costs of the Center City Streetcar of ~$50 million/mile versus Red Line CR costs of ~$12-13 million/mile, it seems logical that a 20+ mile CR line to Gastonia could be constructed for roughly the same cost as a 6-7 mile SC line terminating at the airport.

3. Ridership on the line would theoretically be higher. Although I have no hard estimates, it make sense that adding four or five extra towns to an exclusive ROW line along a heavily traveled corridor would increase projected ridership numbers. Right now, the projections appear to be roughly 4000 riders/day for the SC line. That is lower than the red line's numbers. However, if you throw Gastonia, a city of roughly 70,000 into the mix, it would make sense that the numbers may actually be higher than the Red Line numbers. Who knows, the line may even get federal funding, however the SC line almost certainly would not...at least by today's FTA standards.

4. If there was still a demand for service similar to the SC, the Sprinter buses could provide that without all the extra expense.

This is just my $0.02. Any other thoughts?

[cltbwimob]

Found this article in the Gaston Gazette. It seems like Gaston leaders really want commuter rail.

http://www.gastongazette.com/news/rail-389...-charlotte.html

[southslider]

But how would you get to the airport using the Piedmont & Northern?

[cltbwimob]

^

I think that is one thing Gaston leaders should address, because I think it could possibly get the project to become a part of upcoming transit plans.

If you look at a google map of the area, you will notice that the P&N line goes through Ranlo, Lowell, and McAdenville before turning NE to Mount Holly before crossing the Catawba, and then turning SE and heading into Charlotte. There is also a railroad spur that connects the P&N and NS railways in Belmont. I think at one point, the old passenger train service connected Belmont to the system via this spur. My solution would be to use the P&N line from Gastonia through McAdenville then turning Eastward toward the spur and connect the two railways near Belmont Abbey College, then turn Southward along the spur into Belmont where it would connect to the NS ROW. Once on the NS railway, it could begin it's trek into Charlotte with a station at the airport.

The connection to the "Mount Holly-Belmont" Spur would be a significant point in my idea, as it would require constucting an approximately 1-1.5 mile set of tracks between McAdenville and Belmont Abbey College. If looking on the map, this construction would be near I-85 and roughly parallel to the interstate. The other option would be to follow the P&N line from McAdenville to the point where P&N and the "Mount Holly-Belmont" Spur intersect near Mount Holly, and then make a hard turn Southward toward Belmont along the spur. Another signifcant point in my idea would be the reconstruction of the "Mount Holly-Belmont" spur itself. Based on satellite imagery, it looks as if the line is in disrepair, however, much of the track is still in place. If none of these ideas worked out, there is a track that goes from Lowell to the NS line through the western edge of McAdenville and Cramerton (actually I think this is the NS line). The train could leave the P&N line, connect to the NS line and head to Charlotte via Belmont.

Stations would possibly include, but are not limited to: Gastonia, Ranlo, Lowell, McAdenville, Belmont Abbey College, Belmont, CLT Airport, Billy Graham, Old Steele Creek Rd, and Charlotte Gateway Station. The railway could eventually add spurs to Kings Montain, Mount Holly, and North toward Dallas.

I will post a map with all three possibilities overlaid on the map as soon as I can figure out how to do such a thing.

[kermit]

Warning: This post contains wildly unrealistic plans for rail. Please forgive my flight of fantasy.

Just got back from Midland this afternoon. I was thinking about the plans for the Gaston county commuter rail and realized I was driving beside the underutilized Aberdeen Carolina and Western Railway (it runs from its junction with the NCRR at N Davidson st, Hickory Grove, the outskirts of Mint Hill, along 24/27 to Midland and Stanfield / Locust and points east). http://www.acwr.com/...active-map.html (unfortunately access to Albemarle is poor on this route)

Commuter rail service between Gateway station and Stanfield via Mint Hill could radically change growth patterns to the east of Charlotte. Providing rail access to the vast volume of land beyond 485 could open the door to some interesting "sustainable suburban development" at a much larger scale than is possible in North Meck. While there is currently little to drive ridership in the short term I could envision (in the 2007 economy) developers subsidizing such a service as a means of selling houses in Cabarrus and Stanley counties. With the financial issue of track upgrades tossed aside I could also see some revenue potential for the ACWR from passenger service (if liability concerns were addressed) since the track is underutilized but active (currently 2 trains per day based on estimates of folks who live trackside).

Hypothetically: 2,000 trips per day (at some distant point in the future) at $5 per head would generate $10k of daily revenue. Ignoring capital costs (in my fantasy world) this would be a substantial chunk of change for the ACWR.

I do realize that 1) speed limits on the existing track are likely too low to make any kind of passenger service work. 2) 24/27 has recently been 4 laned and has no shortage of capacity and 3) There is very little to generate ridership out there. However, if growth ever returns to Charlotte this strategy may be an effective means of stimulating higher-density suburban communities to the east if such a thing ever becomes politically desirable (see yesterday's air quality announcement: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/local/story/1167344.html ).