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^ Thanks for your thoughtful analysis and helpful discussion, it does help us all visualize what is actually happening. 

I do agree that inequality is driving a large part of this income decline -- I think it points to North Carolina doing very little to encourage entrepreneurship. A median HH income (also relative to US median incomes) can be used to filter out the influence of super high earners. The data show a more volatile, but still negative overall, trend in NC incomes. Our job growth does not appear to be making the middle class any better off (nor does it appear to be pushing the working class into the middle class). 

The data are from the US Census https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html

(Sorry about the reversed horizontal axis)

 

median hh income chart.png

Edited by kermit
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3 hours ago, kermit said:

^ Thanks for your thoughtful analysis and helpful discussion, it does help us all visualize what is actually happening. 

I do agree that inequality is driving a large part of this income decline -- I think it points to North Carolina doing very little to encourage entrepreneurship. A median HH income (also relative to US median incomes) can be used to filter out the influence of super high earners. The data show a more volatile, but still negative overall, trend in NC incomes. Our job growth does not appear to be making the middle class any better off (nor does it appear to be pushing the working class into the middle class). 

The data are from the US Census https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-households.html

(Sorry about the reversed horizontal axis)

 

median hh income chart.png

If I am reading that graph correctly it states that NCs average income relative to over states was at 90% in 2015, and climbing from 80% from 2013, I don't see how that it actually a bad thing? That looks like improvement to me over the past years since the last last recession, which I would believe shows that the NC job market is doing a better than average "job" in increasing wages. 

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36 minutes ago, Popsickle said:

If I am reading that graph correctly it states that NCs average income relative to over states was at 90% in 2015, and climbing from 80% from 2013, I don't see how that it actually a bad thing? That looks like improvement to me over the past years since the last last recession, which I would believe shows that the NC job market is doing a better than average "job" in increasing wages. 

yup, I would agree that is a correct read of the data. NC did show strong income growth for that 2 year period.

Its also correct to say that NC's median HH income dropped from 100% of the national average in 1996 down to 90% in 2015. Its very volatile data, but given job growth and declining unemployment since 2009 (and also from 1990 to 2008) we would expect to see steady uptrends in income -- something the data do not show. Why aren't we seeing a relationship between employment growth and income change? 

Edited by kermit
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13 minutes ago, kermit said:

yup, I would agree that is a correct read of the data. NC did show strong income growth for that 2 year period.

Its also correct to say that NC's median HH income dropped from 100% of the national average in 1996 down to 90% in 2015. Its very volatile data, but given job growth and declining unemployment since 2009 (and also from 1990 to 2008) we would expect to see steady uptrends in income -- something the data do not show. Why aren't we seeing a relationship between employment growth and income change? 

Rural NC has largely been left behind and rural areas across most of the country are hurting. 34% of our state population is considered to live in a rural area and our rural population has limited jobs since textiles left, etc... In California, 5% live in a rural area. In New Jersey 5% are rural. In Colorado, 13% live in a rural area, etc... These states have an urban population in cities for the knowledge based economy. We are in the top 12 for percentage of our population that is rural. 1/3 of our citizens have limited options but to work at Walmart or the gas station. While Charlotte and Raleigh grow, there really is another story to the rural counties of our state, much more so than states dominated by an urban population.

Edited by CLT2014
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Great data and interesting conversation.

Something I would like to find is after tax median income. Moving here from CO almost doubled our taxes! As an aside I still don't understand why taxes are so much higher here while my perception is services are much, much poorer. Do you think it's due to the low business tax and give aways? Possibly the natural resources revenue in CO.?Maybe it's just the pot income. ;-)

Anyhow, my theory is that considering after tax would bump CO up, hurt NC some, and really lower the numbers for States like CA and NY?

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43 minutes ago, kermit said:

yup, I would agree that is a correct read of the data. NC did show strong income growth for that 2 year period.

Its also correct to say that NC's median HH income dropped from 100% of the national average in 1996 down to 90% in 2015. Its very volatile data, but given job growth and declining unemployment since 2009 (and also from 1990 to 2008) we would expect to see steady uptrends in income -- something the data do not show. Why aren't we seeing a relationship between employment growth and income change? 

I would think we are not seeing as large of income growth as you like in respect to employment growth is the fact that 57 people per day are moving to Charlotte and more across the state, they are taking these jobs  Business realize NC currently is a great place to do business with the middle class jobs, so they create jobs, people from across the country/world move here to take this jobs. We are not creating millionaires, nor are they moving here, we are creating lots and lots of middle class jobs. 

There was a post earlier about average 1% and 99% income early, we just create jobs for the 99%, nothing wrong with that.  Throw in the 34% rule population and that pulls down the state wide average significantly.

As far '95 goes for being 100% of the average, I'm not sure but maybe RJR was still booming, First Union, Wachovia, Furniture industry.  Just a quick guess. 

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NC is the 4th largest manufacturing state in the country (first in the south)  and does have the 2nd highest rural population after Texas I think. Peak income in 1995 and NAFTA was signed Dec. 1993 and  there is a correlation. NAFTA pulled a LOT of manufacturing out of NC (furniture and textiles)  in the following years really hurting our smaller towns and even our cities.  NC is much more dependent on manufacturing than 46 other states. That is why to my original point growing tech jobs in the state is a good thing, and jobs at Infosys, AXA and Credit Suisse are not call center jobs but are providing high wage jobs. Manufacturing is coming back in NC but at much less employee numbers with much more technology.  The Charlotte region has a lot of manufacturing but because the buildings are hidden or not as prominent people dont see that from their glass tower offices. The Triad Greensboro and Winston Salem is even more dependent. I have been to 93 of 100 counties in this state and most of the manufacturing is in the smaller towns or outer rings of the larger cities. But many of our rural areas are really hurting and there is no easy fix. Many states have this same problem Georgia, Tennessee for example but one good thing about NC is we have 2 of the fastest growing cities in the country in our state. 

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Global financing consulting company opens new FinTech lab in Charlotte.  Reason I think this is good news: puts the spotlight on our growing FinTech industry that includes our large banks, AvidXchange and many smaller startups. https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/innovation/synechron-opens-ny-office-fintech-lab-develop-blockchain-ai/

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On 7/19/2017 at 9:34 AM, CLT2014 said:

North Carolina ranks 14th in the country for the number of people working in the tech industry:

https://www.comptia.org/docs/default-source/advocacydocs/cyberstates/comptia-cyberstates-2016-vfinal-v2.pdf?sfvrsn=2

1st: California, 1.15 million people, 8.2% of private sector workers are in tech
2nd: Texas, 585k people, 6% of private sector in tech
3rd: New York, 370k people, 4.8% of private sector in tech
4th: Florida, 311k people, 4.5% of private sector in tech
5th: Massachusetts, 294k people, 9.8% of private sector in tech
6th: Virginia, 284k people, 9.5% of private sector in tech
7th: Illinois, 234k people, 4.7% of private sector in tech
8th: Pennsylvania, 228k people, 4.6% of private sector in tech
9th: Washington, 214k people, 8.2% of private sector in tech
10th: New Jersey, 208k people, 6.3% of private sector in tech
11th: Georgia, 205k people, 5.9% of private sector in tech
12th: Michigan, 202k people, 5.6% of private sector in tech
13th: Colorado, 187k people, 9.0% of private sector in tech
14th: North Carolina, 185k people, 5.3% of private sector in tech

We are however the 10th largest state so this ranking does not appear to be a good sign, beyond the fact tech growth is increasing.  Perhaps the % we are rural is the difference, but for some Tech sectors this would not be relevant.

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41 minutes ago, nowensone said:

We are however the 10th largest state so this ranking does not appear to be a good sign, beyond the fact tech growth is increasing.  Perhaps the % we are rural is the difference, but for some Tech sectors this would not be relevant.

Our state-wide economy is not as heavy on the technology sector as states like Colorado, Virginia, Washington, and MA that punch above their weight. Our economy does punch above its weight in manufacturing, where we rank 5th in total manufacturing output. 20.8% of our Gross State Product is generated by manufacturing (4th highest share in country in manufacturing). 

http://www.nam.org/Data-and-Reports/State-Manufacturing-Data/2014-State-Manufacturing-Data/2014-State-Manufacturing-Data-Table/

 

Here is out state GDP: https://www.nccommerce.com/Portals/47/Documents/Economic Snapshots/State GDP May 14.pdf

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And the best part is that manufacturing is forecasted for growth in upcoming decades. Not so much actual job numbers as a percentage, but as percent of GDP. The new jobs being created will be fewer and higher paying due to increases in efficiency and automation reducing the need for typical assembly-line style of workers.

Outsourcing to China or Mexico isn't as cost-effective as it was in the 80's through the 2000's and it's becoming increasingly more expensive at a more rapid pace. With the factories flocking to China and Mexico in the last 30-40 years, there are plenty of facilities in NC that could be upfitted for modern use with a much lower price tag than starting from scratch or trying to use a 100 year old factory up north.

Another thing that helps NC out is the extensive interstate access our state has and the central location on the eastern seaboard. Trucking goods that are produced here is logistically easier than most places. And easy access to a few different ports helps out as well.

I think the manufacturing sector here is overlooked and taken for granted.

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Here is some good news: Dirt to Shirt movement starting right here in the Charlotte area. Locally grown (Stanly County) cotton spun into cloth made into shirts all right in the area. You drink local craft beer, support farm to fork restaurants, lets hope this takes off. This would tremendously help our state. (and if you never seen a cotton field in full bloom you are really missing something beautiful come late fall drive out to Mt Pleasant area of Cabarrus county or many places in Stanly county.) 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/dirt-shirt-movement-hopes-regrow-local-textile-industry/  (and listen to the textile factory owner talk about NAFTA too) 

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50 new jobs with Oregon based digital marketing agency opening first southeast office in Charlotte.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article163334128.html

Charlotte rapidly growing with tech jobs stronger than NC's traditional tech hub Raleigh Durham.

https://charlottechamber.com/index.php?src=blog&srctype=detail&blogid=567

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Charlotte is absorbing office space a fantastic clip in fact one of the best places in the USA. This is good news because office absorption equals new buildings (hint maybe the new Tryon Place)

JLL reports in the first half of the year Charlotte absorbed 476,000 sq ft of space in a market of 47,981,000 sq ft of multitenant office space (does not include owner occupied space like Wells Fargo CIC) Charlotte absorbed 1% in the first 6 months compared to national average of .2%   Charlotte absorbed more office space in the first half of 2017 than these LARGER markets: Atlanta (market of 134 million sq ft), Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New Jersey (view as one statewide market) Orange County CA, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Fran (76 million sq ft market) Silicon Valley and finally Washington DC (market of 327 million sq ft)   In terms of percentage of office space absorbed CLT absorbed more than NYC as they absorbed .1%    However our instate rival Raleigh Durham did even better than us at 720,000 sq ft in a market just slightly smaller than ours.   You can download the report here or look at their market recap on the webpage http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research/property/office

Bottom line: there is a demand for new office buildings and maybe another 1 or 2 will get started like Tryon Place or we are not going to talk about it but will build it Duke Energy tower on South College. 

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41 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Charlotte is absorbing office space a fantastic clip in fact one of the best places in the USA. This is good news because office absorption equals new buildings (hint maybe the new Tryon Place)

JLL reports in the first half of the year Charlotte absorbed 476,000 sq ft of space in a market of 47,981,000 sq ft of multitenant office space (does not include owner occupied space like Wells Fargo CIC) Charlotte absorbed 1% in the first 6 months compared to national average of .2%   Charlotte absorbed more office space in the first half of 2017 than these LARGER markets: Atlanta (market of 134 million sq ft), Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New Jersey (view as one statewide market) Orange County CA, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City, San Diego, San Fran (76 million sq ft market) Silicon Valley and finally Washington DC (market of 327 million sq ft)   In terms of percentage of office space absorbed CLT absorbed more than NYC as they absorbed .1%    However our instate rival Raleigh Durham did even better than us at 720,000 sq ft in a market just slightly smaller than ours.   You can download the report here or look at their market recap on the webpage http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research/property/office

Bottom line: there is a demand for new office buildings and maybe another 1 or 2 will get started like Tryon Place or we are not going to talk about it but will build it Duke Energy tower on South College. 

Just was looking over the Charlotte report, I had a few questions.

1. In Office Statistics they have "Uptown" and "CBD" as two separate areas, do you know how they defined theses areas and how they located them by chance?

2. Also what is "average" or a good vacancy rate that suggest growth?

 

Thanks!

Edit They combined Midtown and Uptown to form the CBD it appears

Edited by Popsickle
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4 minutes ago, Popsickle said:

Just was looking over the Charlotte report, I had a few questions.

1. In Office Statistics they have "Uptown" and "CBD" as two separate areas, do you know how they defined theses areas and how they located them by chance?

2. Also what is "average" or a good vacancy rate that suggest growth?

 

Thanks!

They consider Midtown and Uptown as part of the CBD Midtown being Morehead St Metropolitan area

Most people in the commercial real estate field feel like 10-15% is a good vacancy to have under that means it is harder to find new spaces and larger blocks of space. Certain submarkets of Charlotte are well below 10% which means the space will be harder to come by and more expensive. Our CBD Uptown and Midtown according to JLL is 8% which means a landlord market. 

Edited by KJHburg
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22 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Here is some good news: Dirt to Shirt movement starting right here in the Charlotte area. Locally grown (Stanly County) cotton spun into cloth made into shirts all right in the area. You drink local craft beer, support farm to fork restaurants, lets hope this takes off. This would tremendously help our state. (and if you never seen a cotton field in full bloom you are really missing something beautiful come late fall drive out to Mt Pleasant area of Cabarrus county or many places in Stanly county.) 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/dirt-shirt-movement-hopes-regrow-local-textile-industry/  (and listen to the textile factory owner talk about NAFTA too) 

KEER, (Chinese textile company) is buying into this sum-what as well.  They are building a new spinning facility on their land they own in Indian land, and I've heard through the grapevine that they have a couple phases in the works which could total over 1 million square feet of new space.

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Cushman and Wakefield another very large commercial RE firm released their 2Q office market report. They count the office space a little differently but the story is the same. High absorption, more leases and they mention SEVERAL new office buildings proposed for SouthEnd that would include the RailYard but there are some others out there shopping for tenants. As in much of RE world first out the door with construction could be the big winner. http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/research-and-insight/unitedstates/charlotte-office-snapshot/   And much more construction uptown than in the suburbs. 

The industrial and warehouse market is performing even better! Lots of new construction and very low vacancy rates. Cabarrus county and airport west submarkets really active with lots of tilt up warehouse construction. http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/research-and-insight/unitedstates/charlotte-industrial-snapshot/

Edited by KJHburg
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I don't think this was posted yet. Charlotte ranks no. 2 in U.S. for Economic Growth Potential.  I particularly found this quote for Bob Morgan interesting: 

“We believe this is just the beginning of an impressive upswing,” added Morgan. “Our recruiters have been extremely busy and there could be more exciting announcements in the near future. Stay tuned.

Let's hope this isn't just a sales pitch and that there is something to it.  I am starting to grow tired of waiting on a Tryon Place announcement, so maybe there are a few things in the works that we just haven't heard about yet.

 

https://charlottechamber.com/news/2017/07/25/chamber-news/charlotte-ranks-no.-2-in-u.s.-for-economic-growth-potential-and-among-top-10-for-startups/

Edited by J-Rob
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^^^ The article I found that discussed those 600 jobs also implies that Classic Graphics will be relocating from their 58k sf in Innovation Park (Univ City) to 100k sf  at Concord Business Park, and increasing staff from 20 to 50.

 

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