New Counties in Charlotte's MSA

[cltbwimob]

In 2013, metro areas will be redrawn once again. What counties do you think will be added or taken away from Charlotte's MSA assuming the definition remains the same as the 2003 definition?

Current MSA:

Mecklenburg

Anson

Union

Gaston

Cabarrus

York

Current CSA:

All above counties plus-

Iredell

Rowan

Lancaster

Chester

Stanly

Cleveland

Lincoln

Additionally, the Charlotte Regional Partnership adds Chesterfield, Caldwell and Alexander Counties as part of the overall region.

I think maybe Iredell, Lancaster, and Rowan counties could be added assuming the definitionfor MSA remains the same as the 2003 definition.

[Alias]

I've always wondered why Anson is part of the MSA when counties like Stanly and Lincoln aren't...I definitely think those two plus Lancaster, Rowan, and Iredell should be added to the MSA. I'm pretty confident that Stanly will be added, 24/27 is four-laned to Albemarle now and you can definitely see the effects of sprawl in locust.

[tozmervo]

I have to confess, I never realized that Iredell wasn't already part of the MSA. I guess the Mooresville half would otherwise be a shoe-in, but including Statesville is a stretch.

[caterpillar2]

I have to confess, I never realized that Iredell wasn't already part of the MSA. I guess the Mooresville half would otherwise be a shoe-in, but including Statesville is a stretch.

Approximately, what would this make our MSA population?

[kermit]

I have to confess, I never realized that Iredell wasn't already part of the MSA. I guess the Mooresville half would otherwise be a shoe-in, but including Statesville is a stretch.

I am not sure that Iredell is a safe bet for inclusion. MSA status is dependent (in part) on the county contributing at least 15% (if memory serves) of its workforce to the core county in the MSA. Since many North Iredell residents commute to the Hickory and Winston-Salem MSAs (in addition to Charlotte) it becomes very difficult for Iredell to hit that 15% threshold for any one metro core.

[nyxmike]

Approximately, what would this make our MSA population?

If Iredell was a part of the MSA today, the Charlotte MSA population would be about 1.85 million.

[jednc]

In 2013, metro areas will be redrawn once again. What counties do you think will be added or taken away from Charlotte's MSA assuming the definition remains the same as the 2003 definition?

Current MSA:

Mecklenburg

Anson

Union

Gaston

Cabarrus

York

Current CSA:

All above counties plus-

Iredell

Rowan

Lancaster

Chester

Stanly

Cleveland

Lincoln

Additionally, the Charlotte Regional Partnership adds Chesterfield, Caldwell and Alexander Counties as part of the overall region.

I think maybe Iredell, Lancaster, and Rowan counties could be added assuming the definitionfor MSA remains the same as the 2003 definition.

Charlotte Regional Partnership adds Caldwell and Alexander but not Catawba?

[cltbwimob]

^

I am sorry, I meant to write Catawba not Caldwell. My mistake.

[jednc]

^

I am sorry, I meant to write Catawba not Caldwell. My mistake.

No biggie. I honestly thought they had just done something screwy like skipping over Catawba because it is the heart of it's own MSA and decided to just use Caldwell and Alexander. I wasn't trying to call you out! =) Thanks for the clarification though.

[atlrvr]

Rowan and Lincoln used to be last decade, but they were dropped (and Anson was added). I have a feeling that they will be included again. Iredell and Lincoln are border line.....they both extend far away from the core, and they both have large employment centers within the county, which in theory is capturing the people who have moved there, instead of them commuting to Meck.

[nyxmike]

I still think Iredell should be a part of the MSA. In South Iredell, you have major employment centers like Lowe's, Lake Normal Regional Medical Center, and many other businesses that contribute to the Charlotte region. It's a large part of the Lake Norman region, along with the state park, that many Charlotte metro residents frequent. Most of the population in Iredell is in South Iredell (Statesville down) and that part of the county is very much a part of the metro area.

[urban980]

My guess is that Lancaster, Lincoln, Rowan, Iredell, and Stanly will all be added by 2013.

[cltbwimob]

Revivng an older topic

I was just curious, why are Lancaster and Chester counties not part of the MSA for Charlotte already? Based on 2000 census data, both counties had over 27% in-commuting to other Charlotte MSA counties. I thought the threshold for automatic inclusion was 25% in-commuting. Does anyone know why they were not included?

[atlrvr]

If I'm not mistaken it's 25% to a single MSA county, or 15% to the core county. If Lancaster has 12% to Meck and 10% to York and 3% to Union, then I don't believe it would count.

THe high rates of unemployment are going to make for interesting commuting stats as of Census 2010. People I assume are commuting much longer distances to more diverse locations just to get to whatever job they can get. I'm not sure if that is going to help or hurt Mecklenburg picking up surrounding counties, but based on the high unemployment rate in Lancaster, I bet they are now included as I would assume most of the unemployment comes from the elimination of traditional manufacturing jobs in the county.

[krazeeboi]

I'm not sure if that is going to help or hurt Mecklenburg picking up surrounding counties, but based on the high unemployment rate in Lancaster, I bet they are now included as I would assume most of the unemployment comes from the elimination of traditional manufacturing jobs in the county.

But on the flip side, with so many businesses leaving Mecklenburg for Lancaster (or choosing Lancaster from the start), that could mean that less Lancaster County employees are having to cross the border for employment.

[jednc]

But on the flip side, with so many businesses leaving Mecklenburg for Lancaster (or choosing Lancaster from the start), that could mean that less Lancaster County employees are having to cross the border for employment.

With so many? Are there more than 5? ARE there even 5 in the past 5 years?

[krazeeboi]

With so many? Are there more than 5? ARE there even 5 in the past 5 years?

Notable moves to Lancaster County within the past five years include HSBC Mortgage (which has since left), Wellman Industries corporate headquarters (company has since been acquired), INSP Network corporate headquarters, Sharonview Federal Credit Union corporate headquarters, Senderra Funding LLC corporate headquarters, Baja Broadband, Continental Tire corporate headquarters, Red Ventures, Defense Venture Group, Nutramax Laboratories Inc. and Nutramax Manufacturing Inc., Titanium Holdings Inc. headquarters, Hand Held Products Inc. headquarters, and PCI Group Inc. corporate headquarters. Over half of those companies moved from Charlotte to Lancaster County. So yes, "so many" is quite accurate, relatively speaking.

[cltbwimob]

I was able to find what appeared to be American Community Survey data from 2008 and decided with all the census talk from this week now would be a good time to revive this topic.

First a little background info-

MSAs are broken into 2 categories: outlying counties and central counties. Outlying counties are those that share a 25% commuting relationship with the central counties. Central counties are those associated with the urbanized area which contains the largest portion of the population. The Charlotte MSA as per the old and soon to be replaced delineations has 4 urban areas...Charlotte, Gastonia, Rock Hill, and Concord. Having 4 urban areas is part of the reason why the MSA is so much smaller than the current CSA since the Charlotte urban area (which includes a large portion of western Union County) is the only urban area that counts when defining the MSA. Only counties which share a 25% commuting relationship with the two counties associated with the Charlotte urban area (Mecklenburg and Union) are counted toward the MSA. This is why Anson is considered a part of the MSA despite being incredibly rural, while counties such as Lincoln, Lancaster, and Rowan counties which seem to have stronger social and economic ties to Charlotte are not part of the MSA. The new set of urban area definition guidelines published last year have explicitly stated that the urban areas of Charlotte, Rock Hill, Gastonia, and Concord may all combine into one urban area next year when the new urban area delineations are published. If that is the case, the central counties for the MSA should also include Cabarrus, York, and Gaston Counties. Based on the information in the survey that I was able to find, if just Cabarrus and York counties become central counties, then the MSA should add Rowan, Lincoln, Lancaster, Stanly, and Chester counties to the current MSA (Mecklenburg, York, Union, Gaston, Cabarrus, and Anson) since those new counties would have the requisite 25% commuting relationship to become an outlying county.

Iredell may also be able to become a part of the MSA. Even though it does not meet the criteria for being designated as an outlying county, it may meet the qualifications of a central county. Due to southern Iredell county's explosive growth the Mooresville area has seemingly merged with Huntersville, Cornelius, and Davidson which are part of the Charlotte Urban area. Mooresville is also now the largest city in Iredell, and pressumably Southern Iredell is the most populated area in the county. It has created what looks to be a continuous urban area from Charlotte all the way past exit 36 on I-77 based on rough analysis of Google maps.

If Rowan, Lincoln, Lancaster, Stanly, and Chester counties were all added to the MSA the current population would be approximately 2.15 million people. With Iredell thrown into the mix, the number jumps to approximately 2.3 million people. If these counties are added in 2013 then I would expect the MSA population to be pushing 2.5 million people when the new metro area definitions are released.

[jednc]

If Rowan, Lincoln, Lancaster, Stanly, and Chester counties were all added to the MSA the current population would be approximately 2.15 million people. With Iredell thrown into the mix, the number jumps to approximately 2.3 million people. If these counties are added in 2013 then I would expect the MSA population to be pushing 2.5 million people when the new metro area definitions are released.

Any guesses as to what the CSA numbers might look like and which counties might be included? I know next to nothing about how the gov't calculates those numbers.

[Skyybutter]

I think the msa will be all current counties plus Rowan, Iredell, Stanley, Lincoln and Lancaster. Cleveland seems a little far for some reason. Not sure about Chester SC. Will be interesting.

[cltbwimob]

Any guesses as to what the CSA numbers might look like and which counties might be included? I know next to nothing about how the gov't calculates those numbers.

Any of the current CSA counties that do not become a part of the MSA for the new standards would be part of the CSA. Other than that, the only other county that might become a CSA county is Chesterfield County in SC which would probably bump CSA numbers up by about 45000 people. I also think that while it is currently a remote possibility, the Unifour might 25-30 years from now become a part of the CSA.

As for calculating CSA numbers, they basically take the commuting threshold down to 15% from 25%. Also there is no central county concept involved in determining CSAs. For instance, Anson is an MSA county because over 25% of it's workforce commutes to the central counties of the MSA (Meck and Union) while Rowan is a CSA county because over 15% of it's workforce commutes to all counties in the Charlotte MSA not just the central counties.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

I think Anson County will remain in the Charlotte MSA. The job situation there has gotten much worse, not better since 2003, and its reliance on Union and Mecklenburg Counties for jobs has only increased.

[cltbwimob]

New msa deliniations are to be released in April

[cltbwimob]

American Community Survey data on county to county worker flows has just recently been released. Based on my research, I expect Rowan, Lancaster, Lincoln, and Iredell counties to be added to the MSA when the new deliniations are released next month. Rowan, Lancaster, and Lincoln because they now meet the 25% commuting threshold, and Iredell because over half it's population is in the Charlotte Urbanized Area and, as a result, should be added as a central county.

If those 4 counties are added, Charlotte's MSA population will be approximately 2.3 million.

[jednc]

American Community Survey data on county to county worker flows has just recently been released. Based on my research, I expect Rowan, Lancaster, Lincoln, and Iredell counties to be added to the MSA when the new deliniations are released next month. Rowan, Lancaster, and Lincoln because they now meet the 25% commuting threshold, and Iredell because over half it's population is in the Charlotte Urbanized Area and, as a result, should be added as a central county.

If those 4 counties are added, Charlotte's MSA population will be approximately 2.3 million.

I'm a numbers geek, so this idea excites me. It sounds more impressive to talk about Charlotte's MSA as over 2M. Would this have any impact on the CSA numbers or would that basically stay the same?