The Bad News Report

[Dale]

Just now, kermit said:

That a large portion of residents and the press believe that the NCGA is moving the state backwards rather than forwards.

Yeah, I realize that and consider them political hypochondriacs. FYI: I don’t mean to be, let alone stay surly, I’m just not inclined to accept certain assertions as neutral-givens.

[kermit]

10 minutes ago, Dale said:

Yeah, I realize that and consider them political hypochondriacs. FYI: I don’t mean to be, let alone stay surly, I’m just not inclined to accept certain assertions as neutral-givens.

Which is the point I am trying to make. It doesn't matter why people believe things. If our economic development policy is going to remain dependent on attracting firms from other places then perception alone is going to cause problems. 

How many thousands of people now think that Apple (or Amazon) didn't come to Raleigh because of culture? How likely is it that those perceptions won't filter down to the next CEO (or spouse) of a tech firm considering a move to NC?

IMO burying our heads in the sand (e.g. dismissing this crowd as hypochondriacs) isn't going to improve the situation.

[elrodvt]

17 minutes ago, Dale said:

Yeah, I realize that and consider them political hypochondriacs. FYI: I don’t mean to be, let alone stay surly, I’m just not inclined to accept certain assertions as neutral-givens.

Dale, basically most cultural issues you argue with people about are the ones which make us a backwater. 

[Dale]

5 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

Dale, basically most cultural issues you argue with people about are the ones which make us a backwater. 

Then “Hail Backwaters!” As far as I’m concerned.

[urbanlover568]

Apple already has a huge campus in Austin with room around it to grow.  Logistically it was essentially a done deal. Short commute from CA and already established. No need to politicize it. It was a business decision. 

[KJHburg]

Not anything that will surprise anyone living and renting in Charlotte but Charlotte's rent have gone up among the fastest of cities in US.  Part of this I believe is everyone is building luxury apartments and we need more basic apartments or smaller ones.

https://smartasset.com/checking-account/top-10-cities-with-the-largest-rent-increases-2018-edition

The other IT city Nashville is on this list as well.   But because of higher incomes here Charlotte rent as percentage of income is still lower than Nashvilles and within the guidelines.  However of course the trend is troubling.  

Edited December 17, 2018 by KJHburg

[Nick2]

3 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Not anything that will surprise anyone living and renting in Charlotte but Charlotte's rent have gone up among the fastest of cities in US.  Part of this I believe is everyone is building luxury apartments and we need more basic apartments or smaller ones.

https://smartasset.com/checking-account/top-10-cities-with-the-largest-rent-increases-2018-edition

The other IT city Nashville is on this list as well.   But because of higher incomes here Charlotte rent as percentage of income is still lower than Nashvilles and within the guidelines.  However of course the trend is troubling.  

I wish Charlotte would have more microunit or really small one bedrooms for cheaper. If they can fit in 50% more units can't they charge equivalently less to make the same profit? As a single guy, living in a 400-500 sq foot apartment is perfectly doable. Especially if it we're within a couple blocks of the blue line, even if it was on the lower end of southend or north of noda.

[Hushpuppy321]

Dang - We're all such development junkies, what's going to happen to us if/when recession strikes the country?  What was this UP forum like during 2008-2010 recession when projects ground to a halt?  It's unimaginable to me to not have Charlotte growing like gang-busters with major projects (Office, Hotel, Residential, Corporate Relo's, etc.).  I'm so spoiled I guess.

If that happens in the coming year/years - I guess I'd be too busy looking for work or trying to survive financially to care...?

 

[Dale]

6 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Dang - We're all such development junkies, what's going to happen to us if/when recession strikes the country?  What was this UP forum like during 2008-2010 recession when projects ground to a halt?  It's unimaginable to me to not have Charlotte growing like gang-busters with major projects (Office, Hotel, Residential, Corporate Relo's, etc.).  I'm so spoiled I guess.

If that happens in the coming year/years - I guess I'd be too busy looking for work or trying to survive financially to care...?

 

It’s one thing to predict a recession, quite another tp predict a pictures falling off the wall crash like 2008. That was historical. Even still, life continued. Still made money. And my attention was redirected to cities where stuff was still happening. 

[15895]

40 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Dang - We're all such development junkies, what's going to happen to us if/when recession strikes the country?  What was this UP forum like during 2008-2010 recession when projects ground to a halt?  It's unimaginable to me to not have Charlotte growing like gang-busters with major projects (Office, Hotel, Residential, Corporate Relo's, etc.).  I'm so spoiled I guess.

If that happens in the coming year/years - I guess I'd be too busy looking for work or trying to survive financially to care...?

 

 

Well. In 2005, it was the same as now. Some posters posted pics daily, announcements everywhere, skyline renderings from RDF, instead of Eli we had another guy at Charlotte Observer that focuses on Development. 

2008 came, the board got much slower. The development section of CO pretty much went away. No more of the weekly development columns I can’t remember what they were called. I think the guy was called Doug Smith. No more KJ type posters taking pics. Etc 

 

A couple years into it, maybe 2011, SouthEnd started to catch fire. I remember Ah seemed the most excited and the SouthEnd apartment boom was the most significant thing. But we also had Romare, Knights Stadium to look forward to. 

 

I want to say RDF, he can correct me if I’m attributing it to the wrong person (but it was someone super credible) said the courthouse was probably the last chance for a skyscraper we would see for a long time. It came across as, well. No more buildings for us ever again. We all hoped to get a tall courthouse like Cleveland.

The outfield of BB&T was exciting. And Embassy Suites was like, such an Amazing score and then holy cow, Element was being built. Finally, a skyscraper.

other cities started to boom, skyscrapers commenced and Raleigh got a Skyhouse announced and it was being built there. It was annoying because Raleigh faired wayyyy better than CLT and it felt like we were going to fall behind. Then next thing you know.... this development boom happened and we’re kicking most cities butts in the development world. We got a slower start, but I feel like we jumped up to the top. 

 

Long story short. If crap hits the fan. Civic projects will be what we look forward to. Greenways, gateway, mass transit, libraries,  stadiums, etc. Anything with public money or LIHTC housing. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2018 by AirNostrumMAD

[Dale]

I don’t think 2019 is going to feel like 2007. And I don’t think that 2020 is going to be as dire as 2008. All the same, I may get in the insurance business.

[DMann]

That other guy was Doug Smith!

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

 

Well. In 2005, it was the same as now. Some posters posted pics daily, announcements everywhere, skyline renderings from RDF, instead of Eli we had another guy at Charlotte Observer that focuses on Development. 

2008 came, the board got much slower. The development section of CO pretty much went away. No more of the weekly development columns I can’t remember what they were called. I think the guy was called Doug Smith. No more KJ type posters taking pics. Etc 

 

A couple years into it, maybe 2011, SouthEnd started to catch fire. I remember Ah seemed the most excited and the SouthEnd apartment boom was the most significant thing. But we also had Romare, Knights Stadium to look forward to. 

 

I want to say RDF, he can correct me if I’m attributing it to the wrong person (but it was someone super credible) said the courthouse was probably the last chance for a skyscraper we would see for a long time. It came across as, well. No more buildings for us ever again. We all hoped to get a tall courthouse like Cleveland.

The outfield of BB&T was exciting. And Embassy Suites was like, such an Amazing score and then holy cow, Element was being built. Finally, a skyscraper.

other cities started to boom, skyscrapers commenced and Raleigh got a Skyhouse announced and it was being built there. It was annoying because Raleigh faired wayyyy better than CLT and it felt like we were going to fall behind. Then next thing you know.... this development boom happened and we’re kicking most cities butts in the development world. We got a slower start, but I feel like we jumped up to the top. 

 

Long story short. If crap hits the fan. Civic projects will be what we look forward to. Greenways, gateway, mass transit, libraries,  stadiums, etc. Anything with public money or LIHTC housing. 

 

 

 

 

I think it was ATLRVR and I who said we wouldn't see a skyscraper in a long time. Back then the courthouse was going beside the arena and a complete new build, so we had a better shot at Cleveland size. I think that UP definitely survived even though the content was light, and really the development cycle never really ended, it just SLOWED WAY DOWN. 

[lancer22]

2 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Dang - We're all such development junkies, what's going to happen to us if/when recession strikes the country?  What was this UP forum like during 2008-2010 recession when projects ground to a halt?  It's unimaginable to me to not have Charlotte growing like gang-busters with major projects (Office, Hotel, Residential, Corporate Relo's, etc.).  I'm so spoiled I guess.

If that happens in the coming year/years - I guess I'd be too busy looking for work or trying to survive financially to care...?

 

Real estate recession will be mild. Urban multifamily and Class B urban office will struggle. Few deals will go bust because leverage is low and almost all of the deals are cash flowing.

 

Construction prices come back into balance 24-36 months later. Rinse. Repeat.

[kermit]

My memories of 2009 were that we had plenty to talk about here and it was an exciting (if somewhat sad) time. The Blue Line had just opened so there was lots of urban change to talk about. This thread was started then (and busy), but there was a good bit of exciting positive news (Electrolux, Chiquita (ugh) and what Wells was going to do with Wachovia (most of that news was positive after the initial bomb going off). The other big event during this time was our financial sector began to diversify, lots of new players entered the city to take advantage of all the unemployed talent and standalone Fintech firms emerged.  Many of us thought that Charlotte was going to see a couple of new banks in town thanks to collections of laid-off bankers buying seized banks (never panned out). There were lots of corporate relocations happening during this period and we did some serious flirting with Radio Shack (hah!) among others.

This was also the time when Southend multifamily began to catch fire and we started to see  the industrial space transform (at large scale) away from neglected industrial. While much of the Southend stuff was hugely disappointing (e.g. the Cherokee mid-rise, mixed use project getting replaced by supercrappy garden apartments like Junction 19xx), it was still exciting to see people begin to move into the Southend 'frontier'. We did think that there would be a large mixed-use project happening at Scaleybark (first it was Crosland and a Harris Teeter anchored project where the library is, after that it was the Pappas project across the street -- double ugh) and Levineland was also 'just around the corner' thanks to the UNCC uptown building just getting underway and was going to anchor everything around it.

Local breweries began to emerge around here as well (OMB started in 2007 and NoDa and Birdsong were not long after that). NoDa's creation myth starts with one (or both) of the Ford's getting laid off from BoA.  Cheap real estate did give us a bunch of radically different new landuses like local breweries and intown multi-family. Land prices these days just give us a bunch of 'the same.'

Stimulus money in late 2009 gave us lots of discussion about better inter-city rail service (which we now have), Gateway station (ugh) and the (unrealized) possibility of lots of federal $$$ for local transit -- although we did get Phase 1 of the Streetcar out of the stimulus.

Overall I have fond memories of this period of urbanplanet, it was an exciting time.

Edited December 18, 2018 by kermit

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

4 hours ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I think it was ATLRVR and I who said we wouldn't see a skyscraper in a long time. Back then the courthouse was going beside the arena and a complete new build, so we had a better shot at Cleveland size. I think that UP definitely survived even though the content was light, and really the development cycle never really ended, it just SLOWED WAY DOWN. 

I've been here since 2004 but have a username until 2006.  2005-2008 was almost as active as now. Things were still decently active back after the recession, but more pessimistic. I remember it fondly, even if things were slow. Does anyone remember MONSOON? Hated that guy... banned me for a week over nothing.

Edited December 18, 2018 by CarolinaDaydreamin

[hinsp0]

12 hours ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

I've been here since 2004 but have a username until 2006.  2005-2008 was almost as active as now. Things were still decently active back after the recession, but more pessimistic. I remember it fondly, even if things were slow. Does anyone remember MONSOON? Hated that guy... banned me for a week over nothing.

Yes, then Monsoon’s name changed, but the reign of terror continued.  I actually fear posting about this because it may return...

[Guest]

Yes, then Monsoon’s name changed, but the reign of terror continued.  I actually fear posting about this because it may return...

I once got so banned by that guy I had to change my name and move to nyc. I kid.
But really nobody better say his name 3 times, he’s like beetlejuice


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Vitamin_N]

22 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Dang - We're all such development junkies, what's going to happen to us if/when recession strikes the country?  

Worst case, I guess we can spend a few years discussing whether Charlotte is better than Atlanta to pass the time.

[Dale]

13 minutes ago, Vitamin_N said:

Worst case, I guess we can spend a few years discussing whether Charlotte is better than Atlanta to pass the time.

Or whether “Charlotte is learning from Atlanta’s mistakes” and risk the wrath of Atlantans who may be perusing the board.

[KJHburg]

23 minutes ago, Dale said:

Or whether “Charlotte is learning from Atlanta’s mistakes” and risk the wrath of Atlantans who may be perusing the board.

I was not around for these spirited discussions but what I see on the Atlanta UP board we won!  They surrendered and no one hardly ever posts there anymore. 

Now anyways the debate would be amongst IT cities Charlotte vs Nashville vs Austin 

While the ATL does compete with Charlotte and sometimes Nashville and Raleigh on job prospects the ATL due its massive size 5.8 million in the metro is really in another league with Dallas Houston even Chicago.   I like Atlanta but would I move there oh Hell to the no.   I love Atlanta neighborhoods I think they are beautiful but once you get out on the main streets the chaos ensues.  

I say let Atlanta be Atlanta and lets make Charlotte the best place it can be.    Lets have peace with Atlanta in our lifetimes!   Photos from my recent "peace" mission to the ATL in Nov. 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2018 by KJHburg

[rancenc]

https://www.independenttribune.com/news/freddy-s-closes-concord-parkway-location/article_0e15c16a-0f89-11e9-8061-53b537386954.html

 The sarcasm!!

[KJHburg]

Best wishes Baltimore with the CIAA tournament!  https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article224037010.html

[nicholas]

38 minutes ago, rancenc said:

https://www.independenttribune.com/news/freddy-s-closes-concord-parkway-location/article_0e15c16a-0f89-11e9-8061-53b537386954.html

 The sarcasm!!

I wonder what's going on with Freddy's.  A few years ago they opened a store around the corner from where I now work in Cary, and when was cruising around this past weekend I noticed that it was closed as well.  Must have just closed recently because when I drove past a couple weeks ago it was still open.

[sclark]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article224037010.html#storylink=latest_side

 

Should probably post this in Good News as well.