The Bad News Report

[CLT2014]

54 minutes ago, JeanClt said:

Quick note…Death rates don’t accelerate. That sounds apocalyptic in the sense more people will die faster. Instead death rates have slowed and will continue to do so with advancements in healthcare and tech. Birth rates slowed and therefore people aren’t getting replaced as they die so that is what happens when the population is seen that it shrinks. The slow death rate is why the population has swelled. The population of the US is also not set to flatline as of yet. By 2060 the US population is set to increase to over 400 million.

Another note is Charlotte has not been growing mainly on births it is because it is stealing from other places. It is already doing what you said it would have to do. Steal from the rest of the US.

Thanks for the clarifications. Would the swelling of the US population by more people being elderly and living longer mean our overall labor force participation rate is going to decrease as we have fewer people working and more of the population retired / in elderly care?

[kermit]

^ yes, that.

The only thing saving the US from a Japan-style geriatric-state with a rapidly shrinking labor force (featuring robots caring for the aged) has been immigration. Our birth rates have been below replacement for a while, and the only thing keeping those rates from plummeting  was the relative youth of immigrants. Unfortunately American’s are fickle about immigration so the tap has remained shut off since 2018.

The press has been blaming our ‘labor shortage’ on people not wanting to work, in reality its been caused by the removal of our main low-skill labor supply. The only fix to this shortage is to turn the immigration tap back on (or take a Handmaids Tale approach).

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by kermit

[JeanClt]

Thanks for the clarifications. Would the swelling of the US population by more people being elderly and living longer mean our overall labor force participation rate is going to decrease as we have fewer people working and more of the population retired / in elderly care?

While I am no expert in the subject, I will do my best to answer this from what I’ve read from studies of the US Population.

Considering the lower birth rates the swell in population is due to (yes) the elderly living longer. This will pose challenges especially with Social Security (The “pot” will be nearly drained by the time I retire, probably). There is a lot of the workforce who are soon to retire and there isn’t an equivalent number to replace them. So, yes technically speaking the overall work force will shrink as the population ages. You can notice how the population ages based on the average age of the country. If it increases from the years prior it indicates a “heavier weight” or higher number of people on the older side of the spectrum. So far the average age in US is somewhere around 38.1 years old which is relatively “young” as compared to other developed nations. The country is not near peaking at least in next 40 years.

The shrinkage in labor will probably be mitigated by automation to a certain extent, but it is a real problem that is not in the too distant future. How we will solve it? I have not read any articles that yet address how it could be possible to mitigate the effects of a shrinking labor force. I’m sure there are a few out there though!

Edit: Yes immigration is what is keeping the population from imploding!

[rancenc]

1 hour ago, CLT2014 said:

Thanks for the clarifications. Would the swelling of the US population by more people being elderly and living longer mean our overall labor force participation rate is going to decrease as we have fewer people working and more of the population retired / in elderly care?

Exactly and birth rates are also dropping in most Latin American countries as well which has been a stronger source immigration.

1 hour ago, RANYC said:

Was it owed any incentives from Rock Hill or was a bond issuance expected?

Based on another article, their decision was based on stronger orders in Great Britain and they wanted to concentrate on that market; at least that is my understanding.

Edited April 5, 2022 by rancenc

[Windsurfer]

1 hour ago, JeanClt said:

While I am no expert in the subject, I will do my best to answer this from what I’ve read from studies of the US Population.

Considering the lower birth rates the swell in population is due to (yes) the elderly living longer. This will pose challenges especially with Social Security (The “pot” will be nearly drained by the time I retire, probably). There is a lot of the workforce who are soon to retire and there isn’t an equivalent number to replace them. So, yes technically speaking the overall work force will shrink as the population ages. You can notice how the population ages based on the average age of the country. If it increases from the years prior it indicates a “heavier weight” or higher number of people on the older side of the spectrum. So far the average age in US is somewhere around 38.1 years old which is relatively “young” as compared to other developed nations. The country is not near peaking at least in next 40 years.

The shrinkage in labor will probably be mitigated by automation to a certain extent, but it is a real problem that is not in the too distant future. How we will solve it? I have not read any articles that yet address how it could be possible to mitigate the effects of a shrinking labor force. I’m sure there are a few out there though!

Edit: Yes immigration is what is keeping the population from imploding!

I've been hearing that SS will go broke any day since the 70s.  I just retired, and, along with many of my other boomer friends in their 60s, am looking for other types of work to stay busy.  60 is the old 40.  People will work longer. My own dad worked until he was 80. 

[JeanClt]

I've been hearing that SS will go broke any day since the 70s.  I just retired, and, along with many of my other boomer friends in their 60s, am looking for other types of work to stay busy.  60 is the old 40.  People will work longer. My own dad worked until he was 80. 

Yep! Though the SS is more of my generation’s problem than it is for the 60s as the 20th century had an explosion in population so that is hard to believe people actually thought that. It also does depend on how many people retire and when. So it is a possibility that the SS funds may dip significantly as a significant portion of the population retires as the population isn’t growing as dramatically anymore. It may not even be a problem for my generation but the one that will be working while I retire. Lots of variables!

[joenc]

3 hours ago, JeanClt said:

While I am no expert in the subject, I will do my best to answer this from what I’ve read from studies of the US Population.

Considering the lower birth rates the swell in population is due to (yes) the elderly living longer. This will pose challenges especially with Social Security (The “pot” will be nearly drained by the time I retire, probably). There is a lot of the workforce who are soon to retire and there isn’t an equivalent number to replace them. So, yes technically speaking the overall work force will shrink as the population ages. You can notice how the population ages based on the average age of the country. If it increases from the years prior it indicates a “heavier weight” or higher number of people on the older side of the spectrum. So far the average age in US is somewhere around 38.1 years old which is relatively “young” as compared to other developed nations. The country is not near peaking at least in next 40 years.

The shrinkage in labor will probably be mitigated by automation to a certain extent, but it is a real problem that is not in the too distant future. How we will solve it? I have not read any articles that yet address how it could be possible to mitigate the effects of a shrinking labor force. I’m sure there are a few out there though!

Edit: Yes immigration is what is keeping the population from imploding!

Also, once the boomers pass away, millennials will be supporting the much smaller Gen-X.

There will be a crunch for a time, but it'll pass.

[davidclt]

2 hours ago, joenc said:

Also, once the boomers pass away, millennials will be supporting the much smaller Gen-X.

There will be a crunch for a time, but it'll pass.

GenX have been parenting our parents and raising our kids, we've earned this.

[LKN704]

11 hours ago, kermit said:

^ yes, that.

The only thing saving the US from a Japan-style geriatric-state with a shrinking labor force (with robots caring for the aged) has been immigration. Our birth rates have been below replacement for a while, and the only thing keeping those rates from plummeting  was the relative youth of immigrants. Unfortunately American’s are fickle about immigration so the tap has been shut off over the past five years.  

The press has been blaming our ‘labor shortage’ on people not wanting to work, in reality its been caused by the removal of our main low-skill labor supply. The only fix to this shortage is to turn the immigration tap back on (or take a Handmaids Tale approach).

 

This is an excellent post. 

It's somewhat concerning that there is a lack of discussion regarding the demographic transition on the national stage, especially in terms of immigration. Granted I don't think we will truly see the full effects of the transition domestically (in terms of labor) for probably another 50-75 years, but it is a topic that needs to be addressed now. 

There are multiple signs that Latin America (a key source of our immigration) is well underway through the transition.

Most countries in Latin America that send immigrants to the US are now in Stage 3 of the transition, and the developed countries of South America (Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina) are either in Stage 4 or 5. Even a country like India is in Stage 3, and various sources (The Economist, 2021) have indicated that their population will start to decline sooner, rather than later. 

[rancenc]

The Iredell County town of Love Valley has some serious infrastructure woes that could jeopardize its' municipal charter.

https://statesville.com/news/local/love-valleys-septic-issues-have-town-on-brink/article_84b3cdf4-ba5c-11ec-af5d-97341b82dea9.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

[CLT2014]

Robinhood layoffs hit the Charlotte expansion team. 9% of their headcount nationwide was reduced alongside announcing a Q1 net loss of $392 million and a 10% reduction in monthly active users. Little clarity if they are going to hit job creation targets as they pull back on hiring. They have 8 job postings in Charlotte now, 7 of which are cross posted in other cities. 

While Robinhood did not confirm their local headcount with the press, there are 109 people on LinkedIn that list Robinhood as their employer and Charlotte as their city.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article260892472.html

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by CLT2014

[rancenc]

1 hour ago, CLT2014 said:

Robinhood layoffs hit the Charlotte expansion team. 9% of their headcount nationwide was reduced. Little clarity if they are going to hit job creation targets as they pull back on hiring. They have 8 job postings in Charlotte now, 7 of which are cross posted in other cities.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article260892472.html

 

At this time, it doesn't bode well for them in terms of receiving state/local incentives!

[KJHburg]

47 minutes ago, rancenc said:

At this time, it doesn't bode well for them in terms of receiving state/local incentives!

and if they dont get to their targets they wont get any tax rebates which is how the NC program works.    Nothing has been paid to them so far I am sure. 

[rancenc]

I wonder if the employee base in Concord have been affected by these recent layoffs!

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/carvana-cuts-2500-jobs-execs-forego-pay-severance-84630554

[rancenc]

More layoffs in the mortgage industry!

 

Layoffs in the mortgage industry are once again affecting Charlotte. Real Genius, part of Nashville, Tennessee-based FirstBank, is laying off about 74 employees from its office at 500 E. Morehead St., the company said in a recent Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification.

The layoffs are effective between July 15 and Aug. 15, with salary and benefits continuing through July 15. Employees were notified as of May 13, according to the WARN. They are home-based, but all residing in North Carolina.

 

Affected positions include operations support, closing, underwriting, processing and sales roles.

On May 10, parent company FirstBank (NYSE: FBK) said in a 10-Q filing it was discontinuing Real Genius, an online platform, as part of a larger restructure in its mortgage segment. Real Genius is one of two channels in the segment. That channel comprised about 51% of sales volume in the first quarter, compared to 53% a year ago. FirstBank said it will continue its traditional consumer retail channel and keep mortgage servicing rights.

Real Genius rebranded from ConsumerDirect Mortgage in February and launched a new platform focused on rate and cost transparency. Jamie Thornton founded the operation in 2012. FirstBank, now with roughly $12 billion in assets, acquired it the next year. Since 2016, Real Genius has worked with roughly 50,000 families and lent more than $15 billion.

A spokesperson said FirstBank is assisting affected employees with potential transfers and outplacement services.

A rising interest-rate environment, coming off of the pandemic-era refinance boom, is leading to widespread layoffs in the mortgage industry. A lack of housing inventory is also contributing to the trend. The Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting $2.51 trillion in total one- to four-family mortgage originations in 2022, according to a report it released in May. That's compared to about $4 trillion in 2021. About 67% of the 2022 origination forecast comes from purchases, with the remaining 33% from refinancing.

Local employees have already been feeling the effects. Earlier this year, Indian Land-based Movement Mortgage reportedly laid off more than 150 employees after hiring more than 500 loan officers in 2021. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) also made cuts in its home-lending business, including in local markets. Digital mortgage company Better.com laid off about 35% of its workforce this year, likely affecting hundreds of Charlotte-area employees.

[kermit]

Arrival continues to struggle. They reported (in a press release) yesterday that:

• they hope to start production of their vans in “q3 2022” but…
• They only have enough cash on hand to “deliver on business priorities” to “late 2023”
• They are cutting spend companywide by 30%, which could impact “up to 30% of employees globally”
• Current production efforts appear to be focused on the UK

Given their current market cap (about $400 million after subtracting cash) raising more capital is gonna be ugly for shareholders. Looks to me like they gotta hit a home run with their still untested microfactory production system in the next couple of months AND hope for no supply chain issues.

Not much runway left.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arrival-proposes-business-reorganisation-201500466.html

Edited July 19, 2022 by kermit

[nicholas]

^yeah, met a few people at the gym last week who work at Arrival.  They echoed the sentiment that it's not looking good.  With mass-produced electric vehicles already in/rapidly nearing production from legacy automakers like Ford and GM, I think it's highly unlikely that many of these startups will be around in even five years.  Tesla will likely survive comfortably, and maybe one of the three between Rivian or Lucid or Vinfast makes it through the initial gauntlet, but after that the window of opportunity for startups will slam shut.  I have zero doubt that what Ford has learned and invested into the electric F-150 Lightning will be transferred to commercial vehicles like the Transit line before we know it.  Same for GM with the Hummer truck, electric Silverado, etc.

[rancenc]

Pathetic and sad!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/food/2022/07/13/starbucks-closures-worker-safety/

 

[TGIBridays]

11 hours ago, nicholas said:

I have zero doubt that what Ford has learned and invested into the electric F-150 Lightning will be transferred to commercial vehicles like the Transit line before we know it.  

The E-Transit is already in production.  Though I'm sure they aren't able to meet the demand yet.  https://www.ford.com/commercial-trucks/e-transit/

[rancenc]

Bad news for the Rowan County town of China Grove!

https://www.wbtv.com/2022/07/18/hitachi-metals-shutting-down-china-grove-plant/

[AirNostrumMAD]

WalletHub came out with the most and least educated Metropolitan areas. Typical rankings. I've always been slightly worried how Charlotte always came in quite low on the educational lists. Charlotte seems to be the outlier of booming cities 

For North Carolina:

Durham #7

Raleigh #8

Asheville #28

Charlotte #53

Greensboro #101

Charlotte Peers:

Austin #10

Denver #14

Portland #16

Minneapolis #18

Baltimore #23

Pittsburgh #33

Richmond #36

and other peer cities ranking above Charlotte: St. Louis, Albuquerque, Columbus OH, Nashville

Not a peer per se but arguably Charlotte's closest city & biggest competitor Atlanta is #26

Notables Below Charlotte:

Orlando #60

Dallas #73

Miami #79

Tampa #85

Houston #88

L.A. #89

San Antonio #105

(Due to immigration?)

https://wallethub.com/edu/e/most-and-least-educated-cities/6656

 

[davidclt]

43 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

WalletHub came out with the most and least educated Metropolitan areas. Typical rankings. I've always been slightly worried how Charlotte always came in quite low on the educational lists. Charlotte seems to be the outlier of booming cities 

For North Carolina:

Durham #7

Raleigh #8

Asheville #28

Charlotte #53

Greensboro #101

Charlotte Peers:

Austin #10

Denver #14

Portland #16

Minneapolis #18

Baltimore #23

Pittsburgh #33

Richmond #36

and other peer cities ranking above Charlotte: St. Louis, Albuquerque, Columbus OH, Nashville

Not a peer per se but arguably Charlotte's closest city & biggest competitor Atlanta is #26

Notables Below Charlotte:

Orlando #60

Dallas #73

Miami #79

Tampa #85

Houston #88

L.A. #89

San Antonio #105

(Due to immigration?)

https://wallethub.com/edu/e/most-and-least-educated-cities/6656

 

Comparing #1:

Ann Arbor, MI Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To #7:

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To #53:

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To Charlotte City:

Charlotte, NC - Profile data - Census Reporter

It's clear we're light on post-grad which would be expected when comparing larger areas to college towns I would imagine?

[AirNostrumMAD]

8 minutes ago, davidclt said:

Comparing #1:

Ann Arbor, MI Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To #7:

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To #53:

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area - Profile data - Census Reporter

To Charlotte City:

Charlotte, NC - Profile data - Census Reporter

It's clear we're light on post-grad which would be expected when comparing larger areas to college towns I would imagine?

Yeah. Very small metro areas I think are too skewed but in the case of Durham. I think it’s legit. The Triangle region (~2.1M) isn’t much smaller than Charlotte’s MSA and likely bigger than Nashville and a few other peer metros. Combine Raleigh & Durham and they don’t move up or down in the rankings. 
 

It’s also noticeable politically where multiple counties go blue in elections and in Charlotte, even Mecklenburg county has consistently solid red areas and the bordering counties are ruby red. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[JeanClt]

Of course Durham and Raleigh aren’t a surprise with their humongous universities and research programs relatively wealthy counties that make their smaller sized metro. Though I would point out Charlotte is still in the Higher Education and Higher income zone so at least we got that going for us.

[turbocraig]

3 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

WalletHub came out with the most and least educated Metropolitan areas. Typical rankings. I've always been slightly worried how Charlotte always came in quite low on the educational lists. Charlotte seems to be the outlier of booming cities 

For North Carolina:

Durham #7

Raleigh #8

Asheville #28

Charlotte #53

Greensboro #101

Charlotte Peers:

Austin #10

Denver #14

Portland #16

Minneapolis #18

Baltimore #23

Pittsburgh #33

Richmond #36

and other peer cities ranking above Charlotte: St. Louis, Albuquerque, Columbus OH, Nashville

Not a peer per se but arguably Charlotte's closest city & biggest competitor Atlanta is #26

Notables Below Charlotte:

Orlando #60

Dallas #73

Miami #79

Tampa #85

Houston #88

L.A. #89

San Antonio #105

(Due to immigration?)

https://wallethub.com/edu/e/most-and-least-educated-cities/6656

 

I guess I’d be concerned if these stats had a negative affect on our growth rate or economic prospects, but if you spin that and say we’re the X number fastest growing metro IN SPITE of these kinds of rankings, then hats off to us. Who knows if any of this is grounded in reality.   I mean, maybe it is, but WalletHub has been a dubious source of ranked lists before.  Looking at the list, would I rather live in CLT or Albany-Schenectady-Troy (left there in the 90s, no thank you) or Lansing MI?  Next.