Baton Rouge and the 2010 Census

[dan326]

I figured it would be fun to make a thread to get everybody's ideas on what they thought the 2010 census would be, so here it is! If anyone has more specific estimates make sure to post hem.

Also, just in case any off ya'll didn't know (cause I sure didn't until last year), Baton Rouge's metro jumped from 600,000 to 700,00 in 2003 because they added East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, and West Feliciana to our metro.

[hagetaka]

I hope all the number go up specially the core city.

[cajun]

I'll play....even though these numbers won't be available for a while.

I predict a nominal increase in the city (maybe a slight loss, but a lower than national average gain at most), and an increase in EBR parish and greater metro area in keeping with average nationwide gains taking into account the new, added regions in the metro area which I believed is based off commuter estimates. Livingstion and Ascension would be above the average national gains obviously.

I think the city Zachary will post the largest net gain (% over it's own population in 2000) in the entire metro region. I think Lafayette will be the only large city (by Louisiana standards) to post a gain.

Ibberville, WBR, Pointe Coupee, Jeffferson and New Orleans will post drops from 2000. Lafayette area is likely to gain around the national average. North Louisiana parishes will lose a lot of people collectively. Northshore Florida parishes (I-12 corridor btw Baton Rouge and Slidell) will gain population and political clout.

I see the political power shifting from New Orleans a little...probably a good thing for Shreveport and Baton Rouge. I think the 2000-2010 timeframe will highlight the importance of good public schools in gaining population and reducing sprawl.

I also predict Thibideaux/Houma producing gains, but the state as a whole will likely lose an electoral seat and post a net loss- which is bad news for all of us and means there will be massive political theater when it's time to re-draw district lines. North Louisiana and New Orleans will be the source of most losses.

[xav13r]

Well, the 2009 Census estimates put Metro Baton Rouge at 786,346.

• East Baton Rouge: 434,633
• Livingston: 123,326
• Ascension: 104,822
• Iberville: 32,505
• West Baton Rouge: 22,638
• Point Coupee: 22,447
• East Feliciana: 20,970
• West Feliciana: 15,055
• St. Helena: 10,551

http://www.census.go...T2009-01-22.xls

http://www.census.go...-EST2009-01.xls

Ibberville, WBR, Pointe Coupee, Jeffferson and New Orleans will post drops from 2000. Lafayette area is likely to gain around the national average. North Louisiana parishes will lose a lot of people collectively. Northshore Florida parishes (I-12 corridor btw Baton Rouge and Slidell) will gain population and political clout.

I see the political power shifting from New Orleans a little...probably a good thing for Shreveport and Baton Rouge. I think the 2000-2010 timeframe will highlight the importance of good public schools in gaining population and reducing sprawl.

I also predict Thibideaux/Houma producing gains, but the state as a whole will likely lose an electoral seat and post a net loss- which is bad news for all of us and means there will be massive political theater when it's time to re-draw district lines. North Louisiana and New Orleans will be the source of most losses.

Metro New Orleans:

[dan326]

I hope our metro has gained 14,000 people before the census closes.

[cajun]

Well, the 2009 Census estimates put Metro Baton Rouge at 786,346.

• East Baton Rouge: 434,633
• Livingston: 123,326
• Ascension: 104,822
• Iberville: 32,505
• West Baton Rouge: 22,638
• Point Coupee: 22,447
• East Feliciana: 20,970
• West Feliciana: 15,055
• St. Helena: 10,551

http://www.census.go...T2009-01-22.xls

http://www.census.go...-EST2009-01.xls

Metro New Orleans:

Holy crap! The state is estimated to gain in population. I'm impressed, even if it's just a slight gain....4 major hurricanes during this decade.

Still sad to see that New Orleans isn't as large as it used to be. I understand the implications of Katrina, and I think that it's done amazing considering what the region has been through......but I honestly don't think there is enough inhabitable space to be much larger than it is. There's parts of that parish that I don't think should have ever been developed.

Detroit probably lost more residents the last 10 years than actually live in New Orleans.

So weird to see a suburban parish as the largest in the state.

[xav13r]

Holy crap! The state is estimated to gain in population. I'm impressed, even if it's just a slight gain....4 major hurricanes during this decade.

So weird to see a suburban parish as the largest in the state.

Those are the same exact reactions I had. I expected Baton Rouge to grow just a little more, but these are just estimates.

Where is the majority of growth in BR proper centered? Is it showing any signs of slowing?

but I honestly don't think there is enough inhabitable space to be much larger than it is. There's parts of that parish that I don't think should have ever been developed.

There's alot of empty land around the Cut Off in Algiers and English turn (the land was actually divided into parcels, but never developed). The Michoud area could be safely developed as well. In the metro, West Jefferson has plenty of land to develop. Harvey and Westwego have large sections of empty street grids waiting for development and the developed areas have extra space set aside for infrastructure. They are expecting a boom after the reconstruction of the Huey P. Long Bridge is finished. It always bugged me how everyone fled across the lake to undeveloped land and created an infrastructure nightmare, when there was room set aside for that specific purpose across the river.

[richyb83]

Dan..I was looking at that this morning...and guess-timated that the Metro pop. was going to be about 801,ooo if those 09' estimates are correct?? Livingston should be about 125,000 & Ascension around 110,000...EBR maybe 440,000...9 parishes sure is a large area...it should be very close...if it's 796,000 will you be disapointed??

If BR urban-proper were annexed the way I think it should be it would have at least 270,000...and as many as 305,000...as it stands now I would say at least 240,000

Yeah it sad to see NOLA numbers in one aspect...but what's even more sad is what the population was in 1960(627,000) and what it fell to pre Katrina (rumor was as low as 434,000 by 04') with 2000 reporting 484,000...talk about serious decline! But the fact NOLA(Orleans) gained est. 18,000 between 08'-09' from 336,000 to nearly 355,000 is encouraging & looking positve indeed!! Yeah Detroit is dying...

Safe to say NOLA is still easily Louisiana's Largest City...

[dan326]

Dan..I was looking at that this morning...and guess-timated that the Metro pop. was going to be about 801,ooo if those 09' estimates are correct?? Livingston should be about 125,000 & Ascension around 110,000...EBR maybe 440,000...9 parishes sure is a large area...it should be very close...if it's 796,000 will you be disapointed??

Well, it is good considering we started out with 600,000, but the milestone of 800,000 would be so much better.

[cajun]

Where could the growth have come from (if any) in Baton Rouge proper? I can't think of any place that has grown "within" the city.

[richyb83]

Well the influx from NOLA residents accounts for 1/2 the estimated number I'm guessing...if EBR was at 412,000 & in 09'at 434,000...I'm thinking adding 5,000 from that..good question on where? Various smaller infil projects scattered across NBR proper; around LSU, Towne Center; scattered SE BR Coursey/Sherwood Forest/Siegen/Stumberg...the Regency Apts at Millerville/I-12 filled up quickly when completed

BTW forgot to mention...where does Tangipahoa Parish factor in all of this...a few years ago there was debate which Metro it belonged to?? NOLA or BR? It's in "no mans-land"...it is not included on either's list...

Nice LSU sig Dan

[dan326]

Nice LSU sig Dan

Thanks.

[richyb83]

How is there going to be an accurate count??

EBR slow on census

The percentage of households in East Baton Rouge Parish that completed and mailed back 2010 census forms as of Tuesday lagged behind the percentages of households statewide and nationally, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

Forty percent of all 2010 census forms mailed to parish residents had been returned to the federal government as of Tuesday. That compares with 46 percent of households nationwide and 41 percent of households in Louisiana, according to Census Bureau data. Thursday is Census Day, and the information on the form should represent the household as it exists on Census Day.

Mayor-President Kip Holden said Tuesday that everyone in the parish needs to fill out and return census forms so the area won’t lose out on federal money allocated by population.

“April 1st is Census Day and we are not where we need to be in the count,” Holden said in a news release. “Recent census estimates indicate that our population has increased, but that we are running behind in the rate of returning forms." East Baton Rouge Parish will lose $1,200 a year for every person who is not counted, Holden said.

“These are funds for jobs, hospitals, roads, education, senior citizens and more that are tied to our population,”

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/89574347.html

[dan326]

The numbers are in!

Baton Rouge metro has 802,484 people!

"East Baton Rouge is now Louisiana’s most-populous parish with a population of 440,171, overtaking Orleans and Jefferson parishes, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Thursday.

The census figures also show that Ascension and Livingston parishes experienced the highest percentage population growth among the state’s 64 parishes over the past decade. Each grew by just under 40 percent while the state’s population increased by 1.4 percent to 4.53 million."

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/Census-shows-shift.html

[Antrell Williams]

The article was reassuring for sure. Can anyone supply the amount of people New Orleans lost due to Katrina because I can't find it because I want to know which parish is growing the fastest after 2005 since Katrina offered a HUGE extreme number in the census countings and they are growing fast right now.

[all2neat]

Orleans Parish I think was down to 202k for the July 2005 estimate.

[Antrell Williams]

I think Orleans parish grew by 58% since July 2005. Rough math and I'm not even sure I did it right but it's nice to know they are number one in growth in all honesty.

[xav13r]

[steve3n8]

Does anybody know when the next census count will be? Is it every 10 years or do they have it within every couple of years?

[itsjustme3]

10 years

[all2neat]

Does anybody know when the next census count will be? Is it every 10 years or do they have it within every couple of years?

As previously answered it's every 10 years, however this wiki article will give you a little more reason as to why it's important. Locally you've probably saw in the news the redistricting that's taking place. It's because of the results of the census so they have to redraw congressional districts to match the population of where people live. Even though as a state we grew, it was at such a small rate we ended up losing a federal seat and also an electoral vote which is used to elect a president.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Census

[steve3n8]

Oh ok, well thanks. I'm sorry if the question sounded stupid, but i see where they have numbers listed every so often and i wasn't sure.

[all2neat]

Oh ok, well thanks. I'm sorry if the question sounded stupid, but i see where they have numbers listed every so often and i wasn't sure.

it's not stupid at all. I'd rather people ask questions that assume incorrectly how something works. Every couple of years the government will release census estimates which do slightly affect funding for schools, roads, etc. However remapping congressional districts is only done with official census data which is what's collected every decade.