Orlando Transit

[uncreativeusername]

6 hours ago, castorvx said:

It can and will happen. Technology wipes out millions of jobs every generation. It's inevitable. You can't stop it.

The trick is building systems (at the government level or otherwise) to help transition these people into other jobs. We are all better for it. The luxury we live in today is owed to it.

Exactly. And a poor job of facilitating these transitions in the past doesn't mean we should throw the brakes on future progress...we just need to (as a society) improve the support through said transitions.  

[Jernigan]

Average American spends something like 19 percent of their income on transportation.   While that won't drop to 0, most of the fixed costs will potentially go away.  Insurance, maintenance, parking etc.    

If you have a job that will be eliminated by a drop in car ownership, start thinking how you will get a piece of that 19%

[jrs2]

^^

I don't view taking drivers out of cars as progress- on that issue.  (Johnny Cab in Total Recall vs Bruce Willis in The Fifth Element)

If you're gonna automate something, automate a targeting system for a fighter jet; automate a life support system for a submarine or the space shuttle; automate the flight plan for a jet liner.

Life isn't made better because you are in a driver-less car or even a pilot-less plane or a driver-less train.  It can be cool, it can be trendy, it can be Buck Rogers, but that doesn't make it better.

[dcluley98]

It can make life better if it increases the efficiency of the system.  Think no traffic jams because stupid humans don't wreck into each other.  No impaired drivers, no idiots going 60 in the passing lane, no rubbernecking, no ripple effect from people tapping their brakes in a construction zone. etc, etc. Take stupid out of the equation and you get a net benefit.  

[Jernigan]

Yeah I'm not sure how taking away daily deaths on the roads isn't a top priority.   It could be resolved without technology but we've proven unable and unwilling to go that route as a society.   

Plenty of other winners would come from this (those who can't drive, those who don't want to drive) but the safety alone is worth funding the heck out of advancing automation

[jack]

1 hour ago, jrs2 said:

^^

I don't view taking drivers out of cars as progress- on that issue.  (Johnny Cab in Total Recall vs Bruce Willis in The Fifth Element)

If you're gonna automate something, automate a targeting system for a fighter jet; automate a life support system for a submarine or the space shuttle; automate the flight plan for a jet liner.

Life isn't made better because you are in a driver-less car or even a pilot-less plane or a driver-less train.  It can be cool, it can be trendy, it can be Buck Rogers, but that doesn't make it better.

Human error is the driving force behind accidents. Take humans out of the decision making process, deaths decrease. Automobiles are one step. All of the other things you mentioned are prime targets. 

[aent]

2 hours ago, jrs2 said:

Life isn't made better because you are in a driver-less car or even a pilot-less plane or a driver-less train.  It can be cool, it can be trendy, it can be Buck Rogers, but that doesn't make it better.

Clearly people disagree with you, we can't get people to put down there phones and stop doing other stuff while driving as is. You ask probably 99% of the drivers on the road if they'd rather be playing on there phone, the answer will be yes. And we see the amount of road rage that happens from people driving. There is no doubt driverless cars will improve our life the most of any item in a decade. Not only that, it will stop a lot of our police issues... the random pull overs for searches, tickets, and all the car related property damage will be eliminated, which is most of police officers time.

[John Hargrove]

5 hours ago, jrs2 said:

^^

I don't view taking drivers out of cars as progress- on that issue.  (Johnny Cab in Total Recall vs Bruce Willis in The Fifth Element)

If you're gonna automate something, automate a targeting system for a fighter jet; automate a life support system for a submarine or the space shuttle; automate the flight plan for a jet liner.

Life isn't made better because you are in a driver-less car or even a pilot-less plane or a driver-less train.  It can be cool, it can be trendy, it can be Buck Rogers, but that doesn't make it better.

I'm afraid I disagree adamantly and without hesitation. Traffic accidents cause a tremendous source of tragedy and healthcare cost in the United States. Humans are terrible drivers. All of us. You, me, truck drivers, everyone. We are biologically ill equipped for piloting vehicles. We need computer assistance.

The leading cause of death for basically everyone under the age of 45 and not an infant is accidental injury. It absolutely dwarfs all other causes. See here:

Ok, so that's accidental injury. Let's look at what those accidents were:

Notice a pattern here? We suck at driving. Computers are already better at it in some circumstances, and it's just a matter of time before they beat us in all situations. We're not there yet, but it is coming, and I look forward to it.

Personally I have lost 4 people in my life to 4 separate car accidents. I watched my friends dad bleed to death on the side of the road because he over-corrected. 

This is an enormous source of tragedy. Please do not downplay it.

Edit: fixed pictures

Edited June 14, 2017 by castorvx

[jrs2]

^^

Each of you had fantastic responses.  Thanks for the insight.  I really mean that.   I agree if safety is the major benefit.  I said my peace, but I also agree with a prior comment dealing with doing a better job of retraining people to other jobs once theirs are gone.

Castorvx, I feel for you, buddy, more than you know.  Ain't no downplaying from this kid on how big a tragedy auto accidents and collisions can be on someone's life, or their family's.  I've seen it, felt it, lived it, and deal with that stuff regularly at work.

Edited June 14, 2017 by jrs2

[dcluley98]

Agree with everybody here that just the safety factor is probably worth it let alone helping the traffic problem itself.  The crazy part is that humans will likely suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect regarding their ability to safely pilot a vehicle vs. automated systems.  Humans have a tendency to think they are better at things than everybody else and will likely push back against letting robots drive for us despite the fact that it has been scientifically proven to be safer and more efficient. It will be similar to anti-vaccination beliefs or trying to trade the stock market instead of just putting your money into low cost index funds.  

Humans just won't accept the truth that they may not be as good as they think they are. 

[jrs2]

6 minutes ago, dcluley98 said:

Agree with everybody here that just the safety factor is probably worth it let alone helping the traffic problem itself.  The crazy part is that humans will likely suffer from the Dunning-Kruger effect regarding their ability to safely pilot a vehicle vs. automated systems.  Humans have a tendency to think they are better at things than everybody else and will likely push back against letting robots drive for us despite the fact that it has been scientifically proven to be safer and more efficient. It will be similar to anti-vaccination beliefs or trying to trade the stock market instead of just putting your money into low cost index funds.  

Humans just won't accept the truth that they may not be as good as they think they are. 

Anti-vaccination beliefs are a completely different ballgame.  And I've talked to enough doctors about vaccines and have learned enough about them to never want to take another vaccine ever again.  I agree with everything else you said. 

[dcluley98]

LOL, I probably shouldn't have opened up that can of worms. Just disregard that part, everybody. 

[aent]

25 minutes ago, castorvx said:

Notice a pattern here? We suck at driving. Computers are already better at it in some circumstances, and it's just a matter of time before they beat us in all situations. We're not there yet, but it is coming, and I look forward to it.

We absolutely are already there. There is just a fear that if the computers are, say statistically only 50% better then us (which is a huge improvement), since that is still a crapload of accidents and deaths. Tesla's autopilot system, as an example, shows that it, statistically, is much better then our own driving already, and thats far from autonomous driving since it can only work in limited scenarios. And even the one fatal accident it got in is too much in that their supplier got afraid to continue to supply them with the components for their system (on top of the media coverage of this one fatal accident when we all know how many there are a day).

As far as the lost jobs from driving... keep in mind with the advent of cars, we lost many jobs. With the advent of computers, we lost many jobs. With the advent of the internet, we lots many jobs. With the advent of agricultural equipment, and then autonomous agricultural equipment, we lost many jobs. Electricity... Power tools and equipment (which keep getting better) allow us to have many less laborers to do the same jobs. Yet all that does is causes us to demand higher levels of service on other things. We now gets lots more stuff delivered to us, and many apparently want someone to do their grocery shopping for them and every place should offer delivery because the drive thru isn't fast and convenient enough.

And just because we makes our vehicles autonomous, doesn't mean every delivery driver will lose their jobs. We seem headed towards faster and faster delivery, and at some point, we may end up with people pulling and packaging the items on the delivery truck while its driving itself to your house, so you can click on Amazon or whatnot and get items within the hour.

[HankStrong]

Someone asked me if I wasn't worried about computer crashes killing people in cars or a computer making a bad decision.  Seriously, I have a 35 minute each way commute each day and if some human doesn't try to kill me at least 1-3 times each trip, I'd call it an awesome day.  How could a computer with logic systems be worse than that?

Heads buried in phones.  CONSTANTLY.

[Jernigan]

LYNX has been directed to move all of their bus stops at the airport from their current ground transportation bays to the new intermodal center st their next service change (August).

 

[John Hargrove]

16 hours ago, aent said:

We absolutely are already there. There is just a fear that if the computers are, say statistically only 50% better then us (which is a huge improvement), since that is still a crapload of accidents and deaths. Tesla's autopilot system, as an example, shows that it, statistically, is much better then our own driving already, and thats far from autonomous driving since it can only work in limited scenarios. And even the one fatal accident it got in is too much in that their supplier got afraid to continue to supply them with the components for their system (on top of the media coverage of this one fatal accident when we all know how many there are a day).

As far as the lost jobs from driving... keep in mind with the advent of cars, we lost many jobs. With the advent of computers, we lost many jobs. With the advent of the internet, we lots many jobs. With the advent of agricultural equipment, and then autonomous agricultural equipment, we lost many jobs. Electricity... Power tools and equipment (which keep getting better) allow us to have many less laborers to do the same jobs. Yet all that does is causes us to demand higher levels of service on other things. We now gets lots more stuff delivered to us, and many apparently want someone to do their grocery shopping for them and every place should offer delivery because the drive thru isn't fast and convenient enough.

And just because we makes our vehicles autonomous, doesn't mean every delivery driver will lose their jobs. We seem headed towards faster and faster delivery, and at some point, we may end up with people pulling and packaging the items on the delivery truck while its driving itself to your house, so you can click on Amazon or whatnot and get items within the hour.

I'm as bullish on autonomous vehicles as the next guy, but we are not already there. Autonomous vehicles are only just now beginning to be tested in the snow, for example.

Now, don't get me wrong, people are ALSO terrible at driving in the snow. But until computers are near perfect at it, people won't entrust their lives to one. 

[codypet]

3 hours ago, Jernigan said:

LYNX has been directed to move all of their bus stops at the airport from their current ground transportation bays to the new intermodal center st their next service change (August).

 

What's going in the existing ground transportation bays on the A&B side that are being abandoned?  More passenger pickup? Offsite parking pickup?

[jrs2]

20 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

LOL, I probably shouldn't have opened up that can of worms. Just disregard that part, everybody. 

not to derail the topic, but look into it.  while the vaccine may help with, say, the flu, it has substances in it that hinder the body's ability to process and/or produce Vitamin D, which makes the immune system take a nose dive.  And then things like...cancer...flourish.  And they know this.  But Walgreens still pushes it at Home Shows like it's going out of style.  Better topic for the Coffee House.  This is my public service announcement.

^^

People do suck as responsible drivers.  But I think a component to automated vehicles has to be a uniform roadway network with traffic lanes, curbs, ramps, etc, all being uniform or having something on the road that the car can detect to know that this is a thru lane, etc.  Something uniform...like the trains have (i.e., the same width train tracks) and turning radii. That will cost a lot of money.  Unless they base the navigation system on something like Google Streetview.  But then you run into update problems for the maps network.  

Oh, and the other problem is that Uncle Sam knows where you are at all times.  God, that makes me sound paranoid...

Edited June 15, 2017 by jrs2

[aent]

On 6/15/2017 at 10:01 AM, castorvx said:

I'm as bullish on autonomous vehicles as the next guy, but we are not already there. Autonomous vehicles are only just now beginning to be tested in the snow, for example.

Now, don't get me wrong, people are ALSO terrible at driving in the snow. But until computers are near perfect at it, people won't entrust their lives to one. 

While I agree people won't entrust their lives to it until its near perfect, autonomous vehicles, even in their early testing, are still better then people driving in snow, because we are just so freaking terrible at it.

 

Anyways, back on the topic of Orlando Transit... OBJ has an article on the ending of Maglev and whats next:

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2017/06/20/exclusive-oia-to-convention-center-maglev-transit.html?ana=RSS%26s=article_search

 

Can't see the contents of it though, anyone know whats in it? I will forever hate the airport for not giving this project a chance since they agreed to post a bond to cover removal costs if they failed (which was everyone's concern)

[maxairmike]

I think maglev was a pointless waste of money for that distance anyway. I don't remember, but unless the same line was going out to either coast, maglev for local routes doesn't make financial sense IMO. All of these stakeholders and development districts need to get on the same page for unified transport line designs with similar modes to help reduce costs (both in planning and the final products). If they can't cooperate, the counties/cities need to do so and take up the planning/organizing work.

[spenser1058]

4 minutes ago, maxairmike said:

I think maglev was a pointless waste of money for that distance anyway. I don't remember, but unless the same line was going out to either coast, maglev for local routes doesn't make financial sense IMO. All of these stakeholders and development districts need to get on the same page for unified transport line designs with similar modes to help reduce costs (both in planning and the final products). If they can't cooperate, the counties/cities need to do so and take up the planning/organizing work.

I agree and welcome to the forum - glad to have you with us!

[bulldogger]

Brightline was just mentioned on today's CBS Morning News in a segment about high speed rail and how we are trailing the rest of the world.  I'm not sure if it will be featured further on 60 minutes, but it was nice to hear they (national media) are considering this a step in the right direction.  They mentioned how it is expected to reach 125 mph in the rural areas, which will still be half the speed of HSR in Europe and Asia.

Edited June 20, 2017 by bulldogger
grammar

[codypet]

1 hour ago, aent said:

While I agree people won't entrust their lives to it until its near perfect, autonomous vehicles, even in their early testing, are still better then people driving in snow, because we are just so freaking terrible at it.

 

Anyways, back on the topic of Orlando Transit... OBJ has an article on the ending of Maglev and whats next:

http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2017/06/20/exclusive-oia-to-convention-center-maglev-transit.html?ana=RSS%26s=article_search

 

Can't see the contents of it though, anyone know whats in it? I will forever hate the airport for not giving this project a chance since they agreed to post a bond to cover removal costs if they failed (which was everyone's concern)

I suspect if the plan is the same as it was a year ago that Maglev will return with a new owner as a light rail system.

1 hour ago, bulldogger said:

Brightline was just mentioned on today's CBS Morning News in a segment about high speed rail and how we are trailing the rest of the world.  I'm not sure if it will be featured further on 60 minutes, but it was nice to hear they (national media) are considering this a step in the right direction.  They mentioned how it is expected to reach 125 mph in the rural areas, which will still be half the speed of HSR in Europe and Asia.

According to NPR, Brightline is seeking help from the Trump administration to get Phase 2 going.

[jrs2]

^^

because of the bonds issue for funding?  That sucks.  Originally, Ricks Cott touted this thing as being self funded. As time goes by, it just gets worse and worse.

^^

I can't read that article on Maglev.  But, if they are going to use a different technology to connect Sunrail to OIA via the OUC spur easement, then I reckon they will design it so that it can head west from CSX on if the ever get the money to go to I-Drive.

[jrs2]

Check out this article from April 2017:  Sunrail, Maglev, and Brightline

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/news/os-airport-train-station-uncertain-20170423-story.html