Downtown Orlando Project Discussion

[spenser1058]

5 minutes ago, codypet said:

The BOA signage is off the Dupont Center.  Its certainly a different look.

Does it say “THE FIRST F.A.” now?

[codypet]

Above the door it does.

[spenser1058]

39 minutes ago, codypet said:

Above the door it does.

Touché. Well played, sir.

[spenser1058]

Business Insider is reporting that WeWork is hemorrhaging huge amounts of money on a daily basis. If true, this may not bode well for the downtown real estate picture going forward, especially the current SunTrust Center:

https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-not-close-to-profitable-loses-hundreds-thousands-every-hour-2019-7

[AmIReal]

3 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Business Insider is reporting that WeWork is hemorrhaging huge amounts of money on a daily basis. If true, this may not bode well for the downtown real estate picture going forward, especially the current SunTrust Center:

https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-not-close-to-profitable-loses-hundreds-thousands-every-hour-2019-7

Pretty much all the press I read on them is negative. I wish them well, but I certainly would not bet on them at this point. If they fail it is going to leave a serious mark on occupancy rates and banks balance sheets worldwide. FWIW, I said the same thing about Amazon in '95.

[Dale]

Possible good news: WeWork is forging ahead with its Miami skyscraper.

 

[spenser1058]

13 minutes ago, Dale said:

Possible good news: WeWork is forging ahead with its Miami skyscraper.

 

South Florida real estate shenanigans were the precursor to the Great Depression. History may not repeat itself but it often rhymes.

http://everglades.fiu.edu/reclaim/monographs/pdfs/FI07100902/sliced/Chapter 16.pdf

From Florida International University  - Author: Kenneth Ballinger

Edited July 4, 2019 by spenser1058

[dcluley98]

They have been losing money for years. As for 200 S. Orange. Piedmont is funding the current renovations. Since WeWork is attempting an IPO currently for an influx of capital for expansion and continuing operations, the money lost would be from stock investors or speculators who should know the risk. 

The building itself will be improved, and whether it is WeWork or other tenants that move in, it will be a draw. WeWork is only 70,000 SF leased, and they said it was 3 floors. There was another article recently that said the contiguous vacant space in the newly renovated building will be a good draw to larger corporations seeking to move HQ to Orlando because it is hard to find that type of contiguous space unless you are building a new building. It is an attractive location because it will be newly renovated cheaper space in the tallest building DT and close to other amenities and SunRail. I think that was in the OBJ. 

Also, interesting note, Piedmont will be fully upgrading life safety and fireproofing systems to bring up to code along with the renovation to the interior finishes. Supposedly they need to add more fire-proofing and increase firewall thickness and frequency of suppression systems because a co-working space will potentially increase to overall capacity of workers in the building over traditional space, and the amount of revisions they need to do to accommodate that means they have to meet new code requirements. This will be a good thing and shows that it could mean more people working DT than before if fully occupied in the future, and more foot traffic and associated business opportunities to meet the needs of those workers. 

For reference, here are WeWork's landing pages describing the new space that will be available with write-up on the location and amenities and some examples of the types of finishes and workspaces typical of what will be seen in their available space: 

https://www.wework.com/buildings/suntrust-center--orlando

https://www.wework.com/l/orlando

Edited July 4, 2019 by dcluley98

[spenser1058]

Dow 36000!

[dcluley98]

Your preternatural fear leads me to want more cash for the coming crash, spenser. 

[dcluley98]

Stocks are way overvalued right now. Fed will say that the economy is strong and they will not cut rates. 

Fed is not dumb. 

Market is supposedly "smart" but moves a lot on speculation always, so that does not seem so smart. 

12-18 months from now, economy will decide that the labor cost "problem" is too much for them to handle. Those darn workers cost too much to sustain our record profits. . . 

 

Market falls again. . . 

 

Repeat. .  .

If you don't know yet, we are the grease for the hubs and oil for the machine. 

[popsiclebrandon]

WeWork is funded by the Saudis so they are fine, even if I don't see how they ever fill these spaces at numbers to make a profit. They will probably figure it out and shift into some different types of ventures like their WeLive thing.

[Dale]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-june-jobs-payrolls-report-161858754.html

[spenser1058]

Employment is a lagging indicator.

[dcluley98]

I did not know we had so many economists on here. 

We are not as smart as we would like to be, otherwise we would not care. 

2.5% mid-term yields don't look stupid right now though. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by dcluley98

[spenser1058]

I’m not just pretty. I was an urban econ major although I went into politics rather than working in the field. Nevertheless, Paul Krugman is my hero (after JFW, of course).

Edited July 5, 2019 by spenser1058

[HankStrong]

Isn't JFW everyone's hero?

[dcluley98]

My hero is my father. 

But I had a good childhood which neither warrants nor explains my eccentricity. 

I guess that's on me. 

JFW is cool. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by dcluley98

[JFW657]

7 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

I’m not just pretty. I was an urban econ major although I went into politics rather than working in the field. Nevertheless, Paul Krugman is my hero (after JFW, of course).

 

5 hours ago, HankStrong said:

Isn't JFW everyone's hero?

 

5 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

My hero is my father. 

But I had a good childhood which neither warrants nor explains my eccentricity. 

I guess that's on me. 

JFW is cool. 

Right back atch-y'all. 

[Dale]

22 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Employment is a lagging indicator.

Apparently, of a boom! Jobs explode. Payrolls jump. 3.1% growth last quarter. 

[WAJAS]

On 7/6/2019 at 9:03 AM, Dale said:

Apparently, of a boom! Jobs explode. Payrolls jump. 3.1% growth last quarter. 

Things tend to be at their highest before they fall. Either way, the fact it’s lagging means we know (by your figures) we WERE in a boom.

[Dale]

8 hours ago, WAJAS98 said:

Things tend to be at their highest before they fall. Either way, the fact it’s lagging means we know (by your figures) we WERE in a boom.

Lagging or heating up ? Do you WANT to have a recession ?

[codypet]

I've been keeping an eye out for auto sales because those are definitely showing signs of slowing.  Coupled that with the fact that average ages of vehicle sales have reached another high seems to me that sluggishness for the auto industry will continue.

[HankStrong]

3 hours ago, Dale said:

Lagging or heating up ? Do you WANT to have a recession ?

Don't tell me what to want!   

[Dale]

Throw you guys a bone ...

I predict we’ll see the beginnings of the signs of a downturn December 2020.