Charleston City Population Estimates vs Census Estimates

[erm1981]

If you go look on the Charleston City website it shows that the city population is around 124,593 people which is quite a few more than the census estimates claim. Would the Charleston city estimates be more accurate than the actual census estimates? Just curious if any of you have looked at this? If this is true come census time we might see Columbia fall as the king of most populated city in the state. Current trends show that Charleston is rapidly gaining on it anyways......

Charleston City Estimates

[krazeeboi]

Just about every city has higher population counts than the Census. If it's off by a substantial margin, you'll see those cities challenge the Census about it. I think if it's like that by the time this year's Census numbers are released, then you'll see that.

It should also be noted that as of late, Columbia has been on something of an annexation spree by requiring people who live in unincorporated "donut holes" who get city water to come into the city. But Charleston is indeed closing the gap and has been growing faster for the past few years.

[ZUMAN]

I happened to be looking at the city population data in the Century V plan this past weekend. I'm alittle confused about the 2030 population projections by city area on page 18 (see link below). I would think that

by 2030 the total city population would be much higher than 167K. One would believe that by 2030 the St Andrews PSD will be dissolved and even without any additional new major developments

(eg Long Savannah) this factor alone would take the population above 167K. Also, the growth projections over the next 20 years for Johns Island and Daniel Island/Cainhoy appear modest at best.

Maybe all these projections are intended to be conservative....

Century V link to PDF document:

http://www.charleston-sc.gov/shared/docs/0/century%20v%20comprehensive%20plan.pdf

[erm1981]

I happened to be looking at the city population data in the Century V plan this past weekend. I'm alittle confused about the 2030 population projections by city area on page 18 (see link below). I would think that

by 2030 the total city population would be much higher than 167K. One would believe that by 2030 the St Andrews PSD will be dissolved and even without any additional new major developments

(eg Long Savannah) this factor alone would take the population above 167K. Also, the growth projections over the next 20 years for Johns Island and Daniel Island/Cainhoy appear modest at best.

Maybe all these projections are intended to be conservative....

Century V link to PDF document:

http://www.charleston-sc.gov/shared/docs/0/century%20v%20comprehensive%20plan.pdf

Imagined if north charleston and charleston city limits were merged together......

[ZUMAN]

Imagined if north charleston and charleston city limits were merged together......

There's probably higher odds of all cities in Charleston County consolidating, which makes the most sense. I don't see Chas & N Chuck ever merging on their own. Too political.

[Spartan]

Keep in mind that it's a 20 year projection.

The main point of that chart is to illustrate that all areas of the city are growing. Nobody can actually know for sure what will happen. If they economy picks back up then who knows, Charleston could blow those estimates out of the water. If it stays stagnant for another 5 years, then those may be more accurate than you think.

[vicupstate]

If you go look on the Charleston City website it shows that the city population is around 124,593 people which is quite a few more than the census estimates claim. Would the Charleston city estimates be more accurate than the actual census estimates? Just curious if any of you have looked at this?

I have noticed this previously, and at that time compared it to other SC cities.

I don't have the figures in front of me, but the Census Estimates for Charleston were way below the actual census count for 2000 and I believe 1990 as well. I have no clue as to why. When I return from vacation, I can check the numbers I have in my desk drawer at work.

I remember that the census estimate undercount was much larger for Charleston than other SC cities.

The City's figures take the last census numbers and adds population for new residential construction and annexation, and deducts for residential demolition. That seems sound to me. I don't know what the census uses, but I know they do look at utility hookups and such. Census estimates are frequently way off though.

Before the economy turned sour, Charleston was on track to regain the title of largest SC city in the 2010 census. The downturn has affected Charleston more than Columbia, so it could go either way. It will be real close either way, IMO.

Columbia has stepped up annexation of doughnut holes, but I think some of that occurred after the census cutoff of 4/1/10.

[vicupstate]

There's probably higher odds of all cities in Charleston County consolidating, which makes the most sense. I don't see Chas & N Chuck ever merging on their own. Too political.

Either would be very difficult. There was a column recently in the Post and Courier that discussed a local person pushing the idea of merging Charleston-North Charleston. The impetus being that both mayors (Joe Riley and Keith Summey)are nearing the end of their careers. If both mayors got behind the idea, it would gain considerable strength, as both are powerful 'strong mayors'.

[krazeeboi]

I wonder if Charlestonians would actually want that, though. Sure you've got the industrial tax base of North Charleston, but then you also have their horrendous crime rate. I think most Charleston residents would be looking at the latter more than the former.

[vicupstate]

Crime preceptions can and do change over time. Back in the early '80's, Charleston had the perception of high crime, and North Charleston was the prime middle class haven.

[vicupstate]

I'm back from vacation, and here are the figures I have:

Charleston 1990 census, 1998 estimate, 2000 census

88,256 / 87,004 / 96,650

The 1998 estimate was 9,646 shy of the eventual 2000 census.

Columbia 1990 census, 1998 estimate, 2000 census

110,734 / 110,840 / 116,278

The 1998 estimate was 5,438 shy of the eventual 2000 census.

Greenville 1990 census, 1998 estimate, 2000 census

58,256 / 56,436 / 56,002

The 1998 estimate was -434 shy of the eventual 2000 census.

While the two year interim (1998-2000) would result in part of the differences, obviously the Greenville estimate was pretty spot on, the Columbia(4.9%) and particularly the Charleston (11+%) ones were way off.