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Urban Apartment Boom (Raleigh)


orulz

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I don't really consider the Lincoln, Elan or L building that far flung.  All of these are much closer to the core than Gleenwood south is.  

My point being that they are far flung from each other. I was zeroing in on a grocery just east of Glenwood since several complexes are aimed at going in there in a tight radius. I don't remember the exact study spec but it is something like an urban grocery is understood to be dependent on walking customers to a high degree and (I think) a half mile was considered the distance a large percentage of people were willing to walk, 1/2 mile equaling 10 minutes at an average gait. I don't feel like there is a perfect spot for a grocery store in the core (between Blount and Dawson for this writing exercise)...it'd need to be located in and in support of the eastern residential or western residential halves of greater downtown. I feel like western downtown proper (west of Dawson St to Glenwood say) is closer to meeting the support density in a 1/2 mile radius of some spot along West Street before other places if the planned buildings all come out of the ground. 

Edited by Jones_
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Excellent point.  Do you think the two grochery stores in CV will be a serious impediment to luring a compeditor to the west side of downtown?  I have also read that grocery stores have serious reservations about geographical proximity as well.   

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Geographic proximity isn't stopping Publix and Harris Teeter from opening up about 1/4 mile from each other in the South End neighborhood of Charlotte. Nor did it stop Fresh Market and Harris Teeter in Cameron Village.

Let's build a hypothetical Publix at Harrington/Jones (the Greyhound / Reynolds site). For a downtown location, vehicular access would be excellent, just one block from the main east-west (Morgan/Edenton) and north-south (Dawson/Morgan) one way pairs. It would be 1.5 miles away from the CV Harris Teeter. There are no other grocers other than Fresh Market within a 3 mile radius of that spot, although there are quite a few just over 3 miles away. The CV Harris Teeter is also slam packed 24 hours a day so certainly there is excess demand.

For comparison, there are 5 grocery stores within 1.5 miles of the intersection of Davis & High House in Cary. (Lowes Food, Fresh Market, Walmart, and 2 Harris Teeters) and yet Publix is building a brand new store right there. So, if the demographics are right, grocers are perfectly comfortable being that close to each other. The demographics would certainly seem to be right for our hypothetical store. Cameron Park, Glenwood/Brooklyn, Hayes Barton... these places are all very close, and pretty much the opposite of low rent.

In fact the whole proposition seems like such a home run that I am puzzled it hasn't happened yet. The only question mark I can come up with is that they are hesitant to build a store with structured parking. The cost of building parking deck would be higher, but since the neighborhood isn't dense enough for a full service grocer to survive on foot traffic alone yet, could the real issue be whether peoplefrom nearby neighborhoods will willingly drive downtown, and park in a parking deck in order to go grocery shopping?

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I am not in the business so my thoughts can be amended or superseded by an expert. Geographically it seems like central downtown would be perfect...just far enough from CV to not overlap that market too much. The physical environment...buildings, high capacity thoroughfare roads etc, make that area feel unsuitable to me. So coming west, yeah I do feel like CV is an impediment. Also it might take 15 or 30 such apartment buildings within 1/2 mile of West Street before chains would consider it soley on available customers within that market radius. However I do sort of feel that Teeter is at the brink of capacity. It has all lanes open at peak hours and the vehicle access is horrible. The apartments on Oberlin are their only route to making more sales I think. So for that reason I personally feel like west downtown is ready for its own grocery more because Teeter (and Fresh Market) is over capacity. I had in mind an Earth Fare with some complimentary shops (Walgreens say) located between Southland Ballroom and the two West Apartments. If Harrington and Johnson get reoriented with the Peace/Capital bridge rework, the store would have easy access from Capital Blvd, Harrington, West and Peace. And most importantly to us downtowners, over 1000 residents would be within a half mile walk of it (St Marys, Tucker,  Devon, Gramercy, West I and II, Link, West condos, Quorum, 510 Glenwood, Paramount) to help sustain it. 

Edited by Jones_
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Latest is a 5 to 6 story proposal with 180 units at the corner of Avent Ferry & Varsity, right across the street from the entrance to Centennial Campus. This is in the heart of the traditional cheap student apartment corridor and there are excellent transit connections to both the university and downtown.

I'm disappointed but not surprised in the least that no retail will be included.

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The site plan looks like it has been improved. The entire sidewalk frontage along Oberlin is now active residential uses, and the entrance to the parking deck now shares a driveway with the parking entrance for 702 Oberlin (the office building next door.) The driveway will be moved directly opposite Bedford Avenue. The controversial driveway to Daniels Street remains.

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So far the only projects this cycle that seem completely stalled, with no substantial forward progress at all, are the two West Apartments projects. Everything else is actively moving along, in some phase of project development, approvals, permitting, or construction.

Greg Sandreuter is involved in West Apartments, and perhaps he's focusing his attention on Edison (office and apartments), putting West on the back burner for now.

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It feels like things are only slowly filling up walking past the currently open buildings. My predictions for those about to come online are that Devon and Skyhouse do above average (the locations are good and the buildings stand out) and Elan (questionable location, no "action"), El (questionable location along a loud corridor), and Crescent (looks terrible) do poorly and 401 Oberlin sort of splits the difference (better side of the road and better building). Link, Lincoln and Gramercy....no guess until I see what they look like coming out of the ground. 

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Well, once apartments start coming in with high vacancy rates, that's a mixed blessing. On the negative side, it means the current boom will be over and construction will stop. On the positive side, it means rents will start dropping, opening up the option of urban living to more people. And with more people downtown comes more activity, and with more activity comes more demand, and the cycle starts again.

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Devon scaffolding is coming down so I can only assume the bare concrete columns and other rough edges will remain. Its very different than other places downtown with all that glass juxtaposed against that industrial edge. I like it and hope it fills up. I believe it to be a bit of a chance in the bland-preferring Raleigh market though....

Edited by Jones_
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Active Construction Statuses:

Devon:Scaffolding coming down as exterior finishes are completed. 

Skyhouse: 22nd story columns being poured

Elan: Second floor trusses going in on first building. Pad poured on second building

El: 4th floor trusses going in facing McDowell. 3rd floor trusses going in facing Davie

Link: Site work continuing 

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Didn't realize JDavis and Florian were both involved in this. Florian had proposed a nice looking place that bit the dust in one of the recessions on the south end of Harrington St. J Davis of course is the standard above average stuff but predictable and to me at least, almost coming to define the "Raleigh look" a little too much. It's good things are staggered in their start times and hence finish times...I still wonder though how many people are clamoring for a high end apartment this many blocks east of the action. I get the feeling Lincoln and Elan are filling the same slot...just hope enough folks want in that slot. 

Edited by Jones_
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