Nashville Bits and Pieces

[bigeasy]

 

 

Quote

Omni hotel looking good tonight with the scrolling "Go Preds" on the LED lights!

 

LOL we got a comedian over here

Edited April 28, 2016 by bigeasy

[markhollin]

Nashville is tied for 4th-fastest growing metro area population in the country:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2016/05/01/how-many-people-really-moving-nashville-every-day/83100468/

[MLBrumby]

From the article. " There's no question that the metro Nashville area's population has increased consistently over the past five years. Reflecting migration and new births minus deaths, the 14-county region went from adding 62 people a day between 2010 and 2011 to 100 people daily last year"

Edited May 2, 2016 by MLBrumby

[bigeasy]

14 County region!!! That seems a bit extreme. Are our "peer cities" also looking at that many surrounding counties? I would like to know what area they are counting for those cities as well. Stuff like this is when I sometimes start to question the validity of some stats. As in they really wanted to make Nashville into a top growing city so they just kept increasing the area. Sure it is nice saying Metro Nashville is 1.8 million, but including areas 35+miles away (Spring Hill, Murfreesboro, etc) is a bit misleading. Just quickly looking at Greater Austin Wiki and it looks like it only includes 5 counties. 

 

 

Quote

 

Growth cities

Annual average percentage growth in population, 2010-2015

Austin 3.2%

Raleigh 2.4%

Denver 2%

Nashville 1.8%

Charlotte 1.8%

Atlanta 1.5%

Indianapolis 1.0%

Louisville 0.7%

Memphis 0.3%

United States 0.8%

 

Edited May 2, 2016 by bigeasy

[PruneTracy]

15 minutes ago, bigeasy said:

Stuff like this is when I sometimes start to question the validity of some stats. As in they really wanted to make Nashville into a top growing city so they just kept increasing the area.

The MSAs, μSAs, and CSAs are defined by the OMB and Census, so they generally aren't manipulated in that manner. You are correct that they are pretty inconsistent in their application (cf. the areas covered by Nashville's, Knoxville's, and Memphis's MSAs). It's especially bad because metropolitan planning organizations have to use these boundaries. Still, I think that no matter which way you slice it (MSAs, counties, municipalities) Nashville is among the top growing in the country.

[NashvilleTaylor]

2 minutes ago, PruneTracy said:

The MSAs, μSAs, and CSAs are defined by the OMB and Census, so they generally aren't manipulated in that manner. You are correct that they are pretty inconsistent in their application (cf. the areas covered by Nashville's, Knoxville's, and Memphis's MSAs). It's especially bad because metropolitan planning organizations have to use these boundaries. Still, I think that no matter which way you slice it (MSAs, counties, municipalities) Nashville is among the top growing in the country.

I used to work at the Nashville Chamber of Commerce and that broad MSA definition always bothered me, but I have gotten more used to it.  People from all of those counties commute to Nashville for work or are otherwise doing business that serves Nashville.

[UTgrad09]

A lot of those counties are dead weight. 5-6 of those counties account for nearly all the growth. You can guess which ones.

[MLBrumby]

Right. The growth rate would be even greater without those 5-6 counties. I saw something recently that the combined population of Davidson and Rutherford today is greater than the population of the total of the 8 counties that made up the metropolitan area twenty-five years ago... something like an estimated 995k today vs. 985k in 1990. In the same article, it noted that Rutherford's population will be around 600k by 2035 (effectively doubling in 20 years). Pretty amazing stat when you consider that Williamson's growth isn't even a factor in that comparison.  And now that Wilson is taking off, that looks to be the next "Williamson" in the metro. 

[NashRugger]

Using Austin's MSA number is irrelevant from the fact the counties in Texas, overall, are much larger than those in Tennessee.

[titanhog]

10 minutes ago, NashRugger said:

Using Austin's MSA number is irrelevant from the fact the counties in Texas, overall, are much larger than those in Tennessee.

Yes...you really need to compare sq. miles instead of number of counties.

[Hey_Hey]

It's also important to note that the federal government doesn't randomly assign counties to certain MSAs.  There is a criteria that has to be met for a county to be included.  Specifically, I believe, it has to do with certain percentages of people traveling to and from counties.  Counties in MSAs have to interact with each other in a very defined manor based in census data. These standards are set nationwide, so MSAs should be comparable nationally in terms of inter connectivity.  

Regardless, like others have said, our core MSA counties are the ones responsible for our growth (Davidson, Wilson, Summer, Williamson, and Rutherford). If we were to jettison Macon and Cannon, Trousdale, etc., we would see our growth rate increase.

Also, I've always thought it is odd that Clarksville isn't in our CSA.  I don't know what the criteria are for inclusion in the Nashville CSA, but it seems like Clarksville is part of Nashville in many ways (I may be a little biased because I work with several people that live in Clarksville and work in Nashville).  

[The ATX]

2 hours ago, titanhog said:

Yes...you really need to compare sq. miles instead of number of counties.

Yeah, counties are not a good indication of a metro's land area.  Atlanta and Georgia's small county size are a good example of that.  Since Nashville and Austin were brought up:  

Nashville's metro is 7,484 square miles.

Austin's metro is 4,286 square miles.

Austin's metro has consisted of only five counties since 1990 because it's sandwiched between the San Antonio and Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood metros and cannot expand north or south.

[markhollin]

The Nashville Chapter of the Urban Land Institute honors nine projects with its annual Excellence in Development Awards:

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/05/02/in-nashvilles-development-frenzy-these-nine.html

[UTgrad09]

For those curious, here's a breakdown of the counties and their growth since 2010:

County -- 2015 pop -- 2010 pop -- num change -- pct change -- land area

Davidson -- 678,889 -- 626,681 -- +52,208 -- +8.33% -- 504.0 sq mi

Rutherford -- 298,612 -- 262,604 -- +36,008 -- +13.71% -- 619.4 sq mi

Williamson -- 211,672 -- 183,182 -- +28,490 -- +15.55% -- 582.6 sq mi

Sumner -- 175,989 -- 160,645 -- +15,344 -- +9.55% -- 529.5 sq mi

Wilson -- 128,911 -- 113,993 -- +14,918 -- +13.09% -- 570.8 sq mi

Maury -- 87,757 -- 80,956 -- +6,801 -- +8.40% -- 613.1 sq mi

Robertson -- 68,570 -- 66,283 -- +2,287 -- +3.45% -- 476.3 sq mi

Dickson -- 51,487 -- 49,666 -- +1,821 -- +3.67% -- 489.9 sq mi

Cheatham -- 39,741 -- 39,105 -- +636 -- +1.63% -- 302.4 sq mi

Hickman -- 24,363 -- 24,690 -- (-327) -- (-1.32%) -- 612.5 sq mi

Macon -- 23,177 -- 22,248 -- +929 -- +4.18% -- 307.1 sq mi

Smith -- 19,295 -- 19,166 -- +129 -- +0.67% -- 314.3 sq mi

Cannon -- 13,840 -- 13,801 -- +39 -- +0.28% -- 265.6 sq mi

Trousdale -- 8,042 -- 7,870 -- +172 -- +2.19% -- 114.2 sq mi

Nashville MSA -- 1,830,345 -- 1,670,890 -- +159,455 -- +9.54% -- 6,301.7 sq mi

 

As mentioned, the lion's share of the growth occurred in 5 counties (Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson, Sumner, Wilson)

Top 5 Counties -- 1,494,073 -- 1,347,105 -- +146,968 -- +10.91% -- 2,806.3 sq mi

These counties account for 81.6% of the MSA population, but 92.2% of the population growth in 44.5% of the land area. It should also be noted that those 5 counties account for 57.8% of the growth for the entire state of Tennessee since 2010.

 

The middle 4 counties range from decent growth from Maury County, average growth in Robertson and Dickson Counties, and slow growth in Cheatham County.

Middle 4 Counties -- 247,555 -- 236,010 -- +11,545 -- +4.89% -- 1,881.7 sq mi

These counties account for 13.5% of the MSA population, and just 7.2% of the population growth in 29.9% of the land area.

 

In the bottom 5, the only notable thing is that Macon County is experiencing modest growth (especially for a rural county isolated from interstates. Hickman is even experiencing losses, while others tread water.

Bottom 5 Counties -- 88,717 -- 87,775 -- +942 -- +1.07% -- 1,613.7 sq mi

These counties account for 4.8% of the MSA population, a mere 0.59% of the population growth in 25.6% of the land area.

 

[UTgrad09]

8 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Right. The growth rate would be even greater without those 5-6 counties. I saw something recently that the combined population of Davidson and Rutherford today is greater than the population of the total of the 8 counties that made up the metropolitan area twenty-five years ago... something like an estimated 995k today vs. 985k in 1990. In the same article, it noted that Rutherford's population will be around 600k by 2035 (effectively doubling in 20 years). Pretty amazing stat when you consider that Williamson's growth isn't even a factor in that comparison.  And now that Wilson is taking off, that looks to be the next "Williamson" in the metro. 

I really doubt we'll see Rutherford hit 600k by 2035. That's a massive leap in growth...think of what Davidson County is currently experiencing in terms of numerical growth, add 50%, and sustain it over 2 decades. I'm not saying it's impossible...but it seems highly unlikely. What makes it more unlikely is how much infrastructure would be required to support that population. 

[titanhog]

30 minutes ago, UTgrad09 said:

I really doubt we'll see Rutherford hit 600k by 2035. That's a massive leap in growth...think of what Davidson County is currently experiencing in terms of numerical growth, add 50%, and sustain it over 2 decades. I'm not saying it's impossible...but it seems highly unlikely. What makes it more unlikely is how much infrastructure would be required to support that population. 

I could see Rutherford hitting about 450k by then....or something close.

[markhollin]

Nice overview of trends in labor, logistics, supplies, budgeting, etc. in Nashville's booming construction scene:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2016/05/03/trends-nashvilles-construction-market/83880942/

[titanhog]

Question about the "train shed" land...which is now a parking lot.  Who owns it...and is this potential development land?  Seems like a GREAT place for a huge project.

Edited May 4, 2016 by titanhog

[fieldmarshaldj]

^How 'bout rebuilding the shed and putting a nice Richardsonian Romanesque tower on top (or Second Empire) ? Just so long as it isn't the umpteenth derivative of the Parkway Towers.

[titanhog]

14 minutes ago, fieldmarshaldj said:

^How 'bout rebuilding the shed and putting a nice Richardsonian Romanesque tower on top (or Second Empire) ? Just so long as it isn't the umpteenth derivative of the Parkway Towers.

I wish they could have saved the shed.  Would have been cool to have something like an International Market underneath it.  Can you imagine how cool that would be in today's downtown?

[Nashville Cliff]

6 hours ago, titanhog said:

I wish they could have saved the shed.  Would have been cool to have something like an International Market underneath it.  Can you imagine how cool that would be in today's downtown?

They could have saved the shed.  They chose not to.  I remember them saying at the time that they would save the component pieces for later use.  I wonder if they really did, and if they did, if they could rebuild the grand, old lady?

[Vrtigo]

10 hours ago, titanhog said:

Question about the "train shed" land...which is now a parking lot.  Who owns it...and is this potential development land?  Seems like a GREAT place for a huge project.

I believe DZL, the owners of Cummins Station, also own that piece. I've heard murmurings that they desire to develop it into something more substantial, but right now the parking it provides is predominant over any other use. As someone who parks in that lot every day, I can tell you firsthand that it is filled to overflowing almost every day and there has to be a viable replacement before they even begin to consider filling it with something else.

Speaking of parking, part of me wonders if the huge parking pedestal underneath Crescent Demonbreun was designed with input from DZL in order to handle some overflow... Cummins Station already uses some parking space in the Music City Center, so it only makes sense that they would endeavor to find a more permanent parking arrangement in preparation for one day developing the surface lots that surround (which they also own).

Edited May 4, 2016 by Vrtigo

[smeagolsfree]

Zach Liff I believe is the owner. The same person that owns Cummins Station.

[titanhog]

2 hours ago, Vrtigo said:

I believe DZL, the owners of Cummins Station, also own that piece. I've heard murmurings that they desire to develop it into something more substantial, but right now the parking it provides is predominant over any other use. As someone who parks in that lot every day, I can tell you firsthand that it is filled to overflowing almost every day and there has to be a viable replacement before they even begin to consider filling it with something else.

I was just thinking that if they could development it with a couple of towers with the main entrance coming from Demonbreun. level with the bridge, then everything below could be parking...giving you 2-3 levels of parking without even digging.

[titanhog]

Wasn't sure if this fit in the East Nashville of CBD thread...so I'll put it here for now.

Top Golf has some new design images for Nashville and they are going to add a music venue.

http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2016/05/04/first-look-nashvilles-topgolf-complex-will-include.html