Nashville Bits and Pieces

[CenterHill]

12 hours ago, samsonh said:

Well this year will still see a $5 million dollar increase. So I am not sure where CenterHill is seeing a cut. Hopefully he can point it out. All the budgets are at this site if he wants to do so:

 

https://www.mnps.org/budgets/

 

And this doesn't even tell the whole story. Enrollment dropped last year despite our increasing population. So talking about cuts when funding is increasing for fewer students is disingenuous at best. 

Busy day and just checking back in.    Looks like my comments generated some discussion.   

It’s best to understand the full picture.    MNPS’s fixed costs increased $25 million over last year due to costs related to inflation, charter schools and teacher retirement obligations.    MNPS put in a  budget request of $44 million to cover the $25 million hole plus operating expenses (including the state’s $7.5 million cut).     Metro funded $5 million of the $44 million.    MNPS is having to make $17 million of cuts at the central office to avoid teacher layoffs and pay cuts.    The rest comes out of school budgets.     For example, Metro has announced it will no longer cover Advanced Placement test fees, which it has done for years, meaning a large number of students will now be forced not to take AP classes because of the expense.      This includes students who have already mapped out their class schedules for next year based on college aspirations and who will now have to forego the AP classes they need for college applications.      This from a city who claims to make public education a priority.    

 

 

Edited May 25, 2018 by CenterHill

[LA_TN]

@CenterHill is correct

It's hard to comprehend how one of the fastest growing cities in America has a budget shortfall and having to make funding cuts

[MLBrumby]

In my line of work, I am about an arm's length from politics in TN (and AL, GA, NC... a little SC). Let's just say word moves quickly when there are politicians who are messing up... or already have. Mayor Barry's scandal was the pin-prick that burst the balloon... but she had already acquired quite a rep as a spendthrift. I'm aware that Metro Council controls the purse strings, but Metro's mayor has a lot of sway (especially when they're powerful and have vision like Karl Dean). Barry had added several new positions that many in local government thought were frivolous. There's a quote by Mayor Briley (the first) that Metro Council "acted like a bunch of jealous whores." Message: the mayor needs to know how to massage that relationship. I heard that Barry didn't even ask them for permission. 

[CenterHill]

5 minutes ago, LA_TN said:

@CenterHill is correct

It's hard to comprehend how one of the fastest growing cities in America has a budget shortfall and having to make funding cuts

And the school funding cuts were announced on the eve of the transit vote.     Don’t think that voters didn’t take that fact into the voting booth with them.   

[CenterHill]

14 hours ago, AronG said:

It is a huge stretch to blame the metro council for Airbnb. Airbnb was already growing like crazy in 2015, both in Nashville and worldwide. They were (and still are in most places) operating in a legal gray area, but if the council hadn't taken the steps they did to require permits, etc. they would have grown even faster, and with fewer restrictions. You can make the case that the council didn't go far enough with their first effort, but pretending that they opened the door to this is just scapegoating. And if you're looking for someone to blame it's *incredibly* charitable to let the state legislature off the hook just because they were lobbied by Airbnb. In the end metro tried to fix this and the state (partially) blocked them.

Believe me, I don’t let the state legislature off the hook.   I’m infuriated that our legislature is for sale to whichever industry wants to have its way in this state.   And I’ve written our legislators on numerous occasions to let them know how I feel.    

My point is Nashville, specifically, Metro Council, had a choice in 2015.    Many owners of homes in R and RS zoned neighborhoods (people who actually live in them)  were asking Council not to let STRs operate in residential zoning.    CP Allen “worked with” Airbnb to draft the ordinance that ultimately passed allowing STRs in R and RS zoning with a $50 permit requirement and a 3% block limitation.   Airbnb was ecstatic and trumpeted Nashville’s ordinance to other cities around the globe as the “ideal regulation.”    It was a huge win for Airbnb and the platforms to proliferate anywhere they wanted in the city.     

Sure, the  state ultimately screwed us, but we could have nipped it in the bud from the start.    CP Allen herself later admitted she did not see the explosion of STRs coming and that it was an unintended consequence of her original bill.      She and we must now live with the consequences.      It is now a fact of life in Nashville that you may invest your life savings in a family home in a residential neighborhood, but odds are at some point you will have a new set of bachelorettes out of town visitors renting the house next door every weekend.      And, every house in Nashville that an investor in Texas buys to convert to an Airbnb is one more house that is not available to someone looking to buy and live in Nashville.   Direct correlation to the affordable housing issue.  

Edited May 25, 2018 by CenterHill

[Hey_Hey]

3 hours ago, LA_TN said:

@CenterHill is correct

It's hard to comprehend how one of the fastest growing cities in America has a budget shortfall and having to make funding cuts

It all originated with the property tax reassessment.  Tax Appeals happened after the rate was adjusted lower per state law. Those appeals were larger than what was predicted so total contributions were lower. In my mind, the appeals should have happened and then the rates adjusted to keep revenue flat year over year. It says nothing about our economy and everything about the process being flawed. 

[Edgefield D]

4 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

It all originated with the property tax reassessment.  Tax Appeals happened after the rate was adjusted lower per state law. Those appeals were larger than what was predicted so total contributions were lower. In my mind, the appeals should have happened and then the rates adjusted to keep revenue flat year over year. It says nothing about our economy and everything about the process being flawed. 

Expounding a little more on that, our property taxes decreased this year. Not much, but they did even when our house shot up in value. Our house is 100 yrs old and we have several improvement projects going on. I feel quite sure we could have appealed and gotten it even lower....we didn’t. For that many people to successfully appeal, I don’t think they have very strict guidelines on those appeals. I’ve seen some really crappy houses sell for $300-$400k. The value is still in those houses. I realize many people who appealed could not afford their taxes and there should be some other mechanism for that, but if you are going off strictly what the house value is....you need to rethink the appeals process.

Edited May 25, 2018 by Edgefield D

[smeagolsfree]

10 hours ago, markhollin said:

Briley wins with about 55%, Swain 23%, Bristol 5%, Love 5%, Gilmore 5%, and Carr 4%.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/05/24/nashville-special-mayoral-election-election-results-david-briley-carol-swain/634643002/

I will bet Ludye Wallace is feeling like a buffoon in respect that he pushed the election to an earlier date, which in effect helped Briley. If the election had been done in August, then Briley would d have had a harder time as opponents would have had more time to organize.

Harold love IMO was the best spoken of all the opponents. I saw a campaign ad from Carol Swain and she just sounded stupid and of course using the word cronyism. Every time I hear that word I think of "Oh Brother, Where Art thou". It just makes me cringe. 

[jmtunafish]

I think the election results show that Nashvillians aren't opposed to better public transportation.  They just didn't like the one Megan Barry wanted.  I hope Mayor Briley will come up with a plan that's not quite as ambitious (and expensive) as Barry's.

[CenterHill]

2 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

I think the election results show that Nashvillians aren't opposed to better public transportation.  They just didn't like the one Megan Barry wanted.  I hope Mayor Briley will come up with a plan that's not quite as ambitious (and expensive) as Barry's.

Agree with all that.      It's probably unlikely that Briley will put forth a new plan (of the scale that requires a public referendum) between now and next year's mayoral election.     If he manages to get reelected in 2019, or whoever gets elected, will have that on their plate for the next term. 

[BnaBreaker]

2 hours ago, jmtunafish said:

I think the election results show that Nashvillians aren't opposed to better public transportation.  They just didn't like the one Megan Barry wanted.  I hope Mayor Briley will come up with a plan that's not quite as ambitious (and expensive) as Barry's.

Agreed.  I am optimistic that a plan that follows the 'baby steps' model, which is put forth by a mayor that a majority of the citizenry don't inherently distrust, would garner majority support.

[samsonh]

12 hours ago, CenterHill said:

Busy day and just checking back in.    Looks like my comments generated some discussion.   

It’s best to understand the full picture.    MNPS’s fixed costs increased $25 million over last year due to costs related to inflation, charter schools and teacher retirement obligations.    MNPS put in a  budget request of $44 million to cover the $25 million hole plus operating expenses (including the state’s $7.5 million cut).     Metro funded $5 million of the $44 million.    MNPS is having to make $17 million of cuts at the central office to avoid teacher layoffs and pay cuts.    The rest comes out of school budgets.     For example, Metro has announced it will no longer cover Advanced Placement test fees, which it has done for years, meaning a large number of students will now be forced not to take AP classes because of the expense.      This includes students who have already mapped out their class schedules for next year based on college aspirations and who will now have to forego the AP classes they need for college applications.      This from a city who claims to make public education a priority.    

 

 

For a local government money is always going to be a scarce resource. Enrollment being down has moved more of the burden to the city instead of the state. If enrollment decreases further it would be prudent to evaluate facilities and determine if more should be sold. Also, almost every government entity requests more money than needed, this is how big bureaucracies work(business and government). For example, a large chunk of the increase requested was for reading recovery teachers, and that was stripped away in the final budget. But yet again I ask, do you want to remove funding for Metro General and save lots of money and fully fund schools, or do you want to have the health care facility of last resort remain?  This is what it comes down to in our current environment. 

 

Also I want to address Airbnb and housing costs: It is almost certain that Airbnb increases housing prices somewhat, but I do not think it is to nearly the degree you might think. But importantly, those people pay property taxes and have no children in schools. It should be a boon to the school system in particular.  https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/how-airbnb-affects-home-prices-and-rents/

[nashvylle]

Interesting point on Airbnb and taxes @samsonh

[timmay143]

Just noticed a new station on Spotify called "Nashville Stripped."  "Music from the heart of Nashville - stripped down to the basics."

Has the typical skyline shot, ugh, .

 

[bmkTN]

May not be much, but this article (about how the recent purchase of Crescent Communities has left them flush with cash) specifically mentions that they have a significant yet-to-be-announced project here in Nashville. 

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/commercial-real-estate/crescents-ceo-on-what-the-development-companys-sale-means-and-why-dallas-austin-denver-and-charlotte-should-pay-attention-88424

[AronG]

On 5/24/2018 at 11:33 PM, CenterHill said:

It is now a fact of life in Nashville that you may invest your life savings in a family home in a residential neighborhood, but odds are at some point you will have a new set of bachelorettes out of town visitors renting the house next door every weekend.      And, every house in Nashville that an investor in Texas buys to convert to an Airbnb is one more house that is not available to someone looking to buy and live in Nashville.   Direct correlation to the affordable housing issue.  

There are (at least) 5 airbnbs within a block of my house, and for my money the whole bachelorette party horror story gets a bit blown out of proportion. There's a rambunctious group every now and then, but mostly it just feels like we have a little more foot traffic/comings and goings. I know some people dislike that as well but to me it's pleasant neighborhood background activity that makes things feel lively, keeps more eyes in the neighborhood, discourages crime, etc.

That said, all but one of the rentals around us are owner-occupied, which I think makes a huge difference. To your point about investors buying houses and converting them to STRP, my understanding is that that's no longer possible. Metro stopped issuing non-owner-occupied permits more than a year ago because the council had clearly expressed that they planned to disallow them. The council finally did so in January, but of course state preemption was a big unknown. Fortunately, after some wrangling in the state legislature they moderated their language to only preempt metro as it pertains to existing permit holders. So the only permitted investor-owned Airbnbs are the ones that were grandfathered in from more than a year ago.

As far as affordability, it does seem pretty clear that the rentals are affecting house prices, and that part only seems like it's going to get worse. My neighbors with a detached mother-in-law on the alley are (allegedly) making around $30K a year with pretty low effort. Which explains why those units are sprouting up on every block in Lockeland. That income has to be helping people foot the bill for significantly higher mortgage payments, driving the real estate bidding wars even higher. It's just another facet of the same phenomenon that was driving up prices all over the country anyway: detached houses in close proximity to vibrant urban metros are awesome. Lots of people want them, and there's no way to build significantly more, so prices climb.

I guess on the bright side the back yard rental units do give medium-rich people a fighting chance against the super-rich people that can afford the sticker price with no supplemental income. I just saw they're selling a house next to the park over here for $1.2 million, no rental unit included !?!?

 

[markhollin]

Nissan to cut U.S. production by up to 20%.  Will be interesting to see how this effects Smyrna plant and HQ in Cool Springs.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Nissan-to-cut-North-American-production-by-up-to-20

[Pdt2f]

1 hour ago, markhollin said:

Nissan to cut U.S. production by up to 20%.  Will be interesting to see how this effects Smyrna plant and HQ in Cool Springs.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Nissan-to-cut-North-American-production-by-up-to-20

Weren’t they just talking about building another Smyrna-sized plant to increase production?

[PaulChinetti]

14 hours ago, markhollin said:

Nissan to cut U.S. production by up to 20%.  Will be interesting to see how this effects Smyrna plant and HQ in Cool Springs.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Nissan-to-cut-North-American-production-by-up-to-20

Maybe they are pulling a Ford and are only going to produce the Titan and one other sedan?

[japan]

SUV's and trucks are the only thing selling in the US.

[donNdonelson2]

In 2017 eight of the top twenty vehicles for U. S. vehicle sales were sedans, but the top three best selling vehicles were full size pickup trucks.

https://www.caranddriver.com/flipbook/the-best-selling-vehicles-of-2017-arent-all-trucks-and-suvs-just-most-of-them

[grilled_cheese]

fvck the nashville metro permit process

[Guest]

It is not just best selling it is profit margin, and the pick-ups and SUVs dominate in profit margin in the mass produced categories. Unfortunately, Nissan's Titan and Frontier are laggards in the industry.

 

7 minutes ago, donNdonelson2 said:

In 2017 eight of the top twenty vehicles for U. S. vehicle sales were sedans, but the top three best selling vehicles were full size pickup trucks.

https://www.caranddriver.com/flipbook/the-best-selling-vehicles-of-2017-arent-all-trucks-and-suvs-just-most-of-them

 

[samsonh]

4 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

It is not just best selling it is profit margin, and the pick-ups and SUVs dominate in profit margin in the mass produced categories. Unfortunately, Nissan's Titan and Frontier are laggards in the industry.

 

 

Ford is pivoting hard towards electric vehicles. That is the future and will be the automotive story of the 2020s. 

[Pdt2f]

2 hours ago, samsonh said:

Ford is pivoting hard towards electric vehicles. That is the future and will be the automotive story of the 2020s. 

If the government subsidies hold out. That’s the only reason they keep making them now.