Nashville Bits and Pieces

[Guest]

So you believe a ranking of city management uses personal debt as a metric? 

I believe my original analysis ... and snarky post ... are on point.

...who is confirming priors?

Quote

Long-term debt per capita is a common ratio to measure how much it costs for each person to benefit from certain infrastructure improvements. Generally, large cities like New York City and Chicago have more debt due to larger populations and also because residents in the surrounding areas use many of these services (called “free-rider” benefits) without contributing to city revenues.

 

46 minutes ago, AronG said:

I know it's nice to confirm your priors, but I believe the debt ratio in question was personal debt, not metro.

 

Edited July 11, 2018 by Guest

[samsonh]

19 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

So you believe a ranking of city management uses personal debt as a metric? 

I believe my original analysis ... and snarky post ... are on point.

...who is confirming priors?

 

 

He probably assumed that by clicking on the link and typing in Nashville, which takes you directly to personal debt stats for the city, which are not pretty. Our citizens are spending more than they make it seems.

 

I wonder if the debt of the city includes a project like MCC, which is in it's early years and not scheduled to pay down much debt at this point but is as healthy financially as possible. 

 

Edit to add that the health stats are the worst part of this. Obesity is clearly an epidemic in this state and we will be paying for it for decades. 

Edited July 11, 2018 by samsonh

[Guest]

I am sure it is that plus the stadium deals, the storm water system upgrades, sidewalk commitment, etc.... I would guess pension liability is not included. But that is not clear.

[samsonh]

9 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

I am sure it is that plus the stadium deals, the storm water system upgrades, sidewalk commitment, etc.... I would guess pension liability is not included. But that is not clear.

The stadium debt has become quite small now, and the convention center debt will really start chipping away in the 2020's. Shut down Metro General Hospital and our annual budget looks completely different.  We are far from a budget crisis in this city, but that news doesn't sell papers or bring viewers to local news. 

[Guest]

Well stadium debt is ongoing as upgrades to aging facilities become increasingly costly....buy funds may come iTunes U of general revenues.

also, the ballpark is a stadium and the new mls facility will add to the load.

hopefylly we can avoid the flood wall and pumping station....120M+? Not sure.... or that jumps it up.

[AronG]

1 hour ago, nashville_bound said:

So you believe a ranking of city management uses personal debt as a metric? 

Seriously? It's the internet, do you think somebody's doing quality control on here? People rank stuff based on ridiculous criteria all the time. You can probably find a ranking of cities based on personal hygiene, grooming, or mustache design. You quoted smeagol's reference to a wallethub ranking to make your point about our terrible debt. Here's an example of wallethub ranking cities based on personal debt: https://wallethub.com/edu/best-cities-at-money-management/19256/

I'm always interested to learn more about our city, but the cnbc article didn't support any doomsaying about our debt level. Out of curiosity, where did you pull that definition of debt per capita?

[Rockatansky]

13 hours ago, nashville_bound said:

$9,000,000,000

$5.6 billion

[Guest]

It is indeed the internet, and it is quite useful and simple to look at the criteria used to generate the rankings. Instead you made an incorrect assumption. Innocent enough, but then you magnified your error by attempting to pile on with a "confirming bias" slight. ha

Your ranking of wallet hub based on personal debt is quite irrelevant to my post....  see my reference to your error above.

You continue to read more into what I write than intended. I quoted a post by SF on a ranking using certain metrics that says Nashville's Politicians/Managers get dinged for having an unusually high municipal debt per capita. I did not say that was the only ranking available, nor did I say I agreed with the ranking in general. I simply stated that with such a high city debt load I any very glad indeed we trounced the Transit referendum.

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-run-cities/22869/#methodology

 

Methodology

In order to determine the best- and worst-run cities in America, WalletHub compared 150 of the most populated cities across six key categories: 1) Financial Stability, 2) Education, 3) Health, 4) Safety, 5) Economy and 6) Infrastructure & Pollution.

We evaluated those dimensions using 35 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest quality of service.

Next, we calculated an overall “Quality of City Services” score for each city based on its weighted average across all the metrics. Finally, for each city, we divided the Quality of City Services score by the “Total Budget per Capita” (dollar amount) in order to construct a “Score per Dollar Spent” index — displayed as “Overall Rank” in the Main Findings table above — which we then used to rank-order the cities in our sample.

The metrics used do not create a disadvantage for DC, despite its unusual status as a city/state, with the exception of the Long-Term Debt Outstanding per Capita metric. However, even with that metric removed, DC still ranks last. Thus, the District was included in this report.

http://uscommonsense.org/visualizations/long-term-debt-top-100-u-s-cities/

 

About This Visualization

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by the end of 2012, local governments in the United States had accumulated nearly $1.8 trillion dollars of unpaid debt. Approximately 98% of the local government debt consisted of long-term obligations, which are infrastructure costs. In other words, while enjoying the public services offered by their local governments, the average American was indebted $5,723 for services such as city parks, sewer systems, traffic signals, and police.

Long-term debt per capita is a common ratio to measure how much it costs for each person to benefit from certain infrastructure improvements. Generally, large cities like New York City and Chicago have more debt due to larger populations and also because residents in the surrounding areas use many of these services (called “free-rider” benefits) without contributing to city revenues.

However, not all cities with the largest long-term debt per capita figures are large metropolises. With a population of 380,000, Wichita, Kansas had the 8th highest amount of long-term debt per capita in 2012, with every resident owing an average of $9,014. This number is 57% higher than the national average and almost 4 times higher than the state average. In the coming years, as cities continue to grow, they will have to monitor their debt carefully to balance their budgets while working to provide quality public services.

 

53 minutes ago, AronG said:

Seriously? It's the internet, do you think somebody's doing quality control on here? People rank stuff based on ridiculous criteria all the time. You can probably find a ranking of cities based on personal hygiene, grooming, or mustache design. You quoted smeagol's reference to a wallethub ranking to make your point about our terrible debt. Here's an example of wallethub ranking cities based on personal debt: https://wallethub.com/edu/best-cities-at-money-management/19256/

I'm always interested to learn more about our city, but the cnbc article didn't support any doomsaying about our debt level. Out of curiosity, where did you pull that definition of debt per capita?

 

[samsonh]

12 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

It is indeed the internet, and it is quite useful and simple to look at the criteria used to generate the rankings. Instead you made an incorrect assumption. Innocent enough, but then you magnified your error by attempting to pile on with a "confirming bias" slight. ha

Your ranking of wallet hub based on personal debt is quite irrelevant to my post....  see my reference to your error above.

You continue to read more into what I write than intended. I quoted a post by SF on a ranking using certain metrics that says Nashville's Politicians/Managers get dinged for having an unusually high municipal debt per capita. I did not say that was the only ranking available, nor did I say I agreed with the ranking in general. I simply stated that with such a high city debt load I any very glad indeed we trounced the Transit referendum.

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-run-cities/22869/#methodology

 

Methodology

In order to determine the best- and worst-run cities in America, WalletHub compared 150 of the most populated cities across six key categories: 1) Financial Stability, 2) Education, 3) Health, 4) Safety, 5) Economy and 6) Infrastructure & Pollution.

We evaluated those dimensions using 35 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest quality of service.

Next, we calculated an overall “Quality of City Services” score for each city based on its weighted average across all the metrics. Finally, for each city, we divided the Quality of City Services score by the “Total Budget per Capita” (dollar amount) in order to construct a “Score per Dollar Spent” index — displayed as “Overall Rank” in the Main Findings table above — which we then used to rank-order the cities in our sample.

The metrics used do not create a disadvantage for DC, despite its unusual status as a city/state, with the exception of the Long-Term Debt Outstanding per Capita metric. However, even with that metric removed, DC still ranks last. Thus, the District was included in this report.

http://uscommonsense.org/visualizations/long-term-debt-top-100-u-s-cities/

 

About This Visualization

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by the end of 2012, local governments in the United States had accumulated nearly $1.8 trillion dollars of unpaid debt. Approximately 98% of the local government debt consisted of long-term obligations, which are infrastructure costs. In other words, while enjoying the public services offered by their local governments, the average American was indebted $5,723 for services such as city parks, sewer systems, traffic signals, and police.

Long-term debt per capita is a common ratio to measure how much it costs for each person to benefit from certain infrastructure improvements. Generally, large cities like New York City and Chicago have more debt due to larger populations and also because residents in the surrounding areas use many of these services (called “free-rider” benefits) without contributing to city revenues.

However, not all cities with the largest long-term debt per capita figures are large metropolises. With a population of 380,000, Wichita, Kansas had the 8th highest amount of long-term debt per capita in 2012, with every resident owing an average of $9,014. This number is 57% higher than the national average and almost 4 times higher than the state average. In the coming years, as cities continue to grow, they will have to monitor their debt carefully to balance their budgets while working to provide quality public services.

 

 

I get that you are trying to pile on Aron but the debt of our local government is not the problem. I urge you to look at the last report to Metro Council and point to the issues you think are holding the city back. Health, education, and safety are my larger concerns. Workforce housing is also an important concern. A clickbait article should not be what forms your opinions, facts are what should. 

[Guest]

Again, I never said our city debt defined us. The context was we have a higher than normal debt load and adding another 9B$ would not be wise....that is the full extend of my statement.

As for other priorities ... yes education, safety, health are all larger concerns. Where we may not agree is how to tackle most of those larger issues. 

[samsonh]

13 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

Again, I never said our city debt defined us. The context was we have a higher than normal debt load and adding another 9B$ would not be wise....that is the full extend of my statement.

As for other priorities ... yes education, safety, health are all larger concerns. Where we may not agree is how to tackle most of those larger issues. 

Again,

It would not have been 9 billion and they would not have been general obligation bonds. Such an important difference that you do not want to admit

[titanhog]

You guys.  Get a room. 

[Guest]

Come on and lighten -up. I am just trying to have some fun at the transit supporters expense. 

So can explain to me how the 9B$ Transit plan was to be funded?

My understanding is the dedicated tax revenue would have gone to pay of bonds over like 30-40 years. Is this incorrect?

In addition there would have been 2.4B$ in bonds to finance initial construction.

[AronG]

36 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

Come on and lighten -up. I am just trying to have some fun at the transit supporters expense. 

Yeah yeah, totally on brand for you to troll us on that one. What I don't understand is why I can't get you on board for my love of bird scooters. It's a libertarian dream!

[Guest]

why do you think I am against BIRD? I am all for the scooters, but I want to be able to navigate the sidewalks of downtown as a pedestrian.

[samsonh]

1 hour ago, nashville_bound said:

Come on and lighten -up. I am just trying to have some fun at the transit supporters expense. 

So can explain to me how the 9B$ Transit plan was to be funded?

My understanding is the dedicated tax revenue would have gone to pay of bonds over like 30-40 years. Is this incorrect?

In addition there would have been 2.4B$ in bonds to finance initial construction.

Yes,  revenue bonds. Not General Obligation bonds.  Your understanding is correct, but you are misunderstanding the role of revenue and general obligation bonds in municipal funding. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/revenuebond.asp

[Guest]

Thanks for that, but in the macro, I do understand the difference in GO and Revenue bonds. Where do you see the bonds intended to be issued for the transit plans would not be backed by the full faith of the city? As an example the MCC has a dedicated tax revenue stream, but Nashville has full liability for any shortage.

Edited July 11, 2018 by Guest

[samsonh]

58 minutes ago, nashville_bound said:

Thanks for that, but in the macro, I do understand the difference in GO and Revenue bonds. Where do you see the bonds intended to be issued for the transit plans would not be backed by the full faith of the city? As an example the MCC has a dedicated tax revenue stream, but Nashville has full liability for any shortage.

Because Metro made a pledge to backstop those bonds. Pretty simple.

[nashvylle]

1 minute ago, samsonh said:

Because Metro made a pledge to backstop those bonds. Pretty simple.

in cases of shortfalls for revenue bonds, wouldn't metro increase the sales tax? IE less money that could be used for other metro departments?

[samsonh]

47 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

in cases of shortfalls for revenue bonds, wouldn't metro increase the sales tax? IE less money that could be used for other metro departments?

They can add a credit enhancement of some sort if they wish, but generally revenue bonds are riskier to the buyer and pay a higher coupon, adding the full backing of Metro would reduce that coupon but raise the risk for the issuer(Metro). TN has a max sales tax so no they would not just raise the sales tax. 

[nashvylle]

1 minute ago, samsonh said:

They can add a credit enhancement of some sort if they wish, but generally revenue bonds are riskier to the buyer and pay a higher coupon, adding the full backing of Metro would reduce that coupon but raise the risk for the issuer(Metro). TN has a max sales tax so no they would not just raise the sales tax. 

what would metro do then if they hit the max sales tax, but still had to pay the coupon? Raise property taxes? 

[samsonh]

9 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

what would metro do then if they hit the max sales tax, but still had to pay the coupon? Raise property taxes? 

If the defined revenue sources are not there and the city has no willingness to pay the bonds go into default. This is why they pay a higher coupon. Bond investing 101.

[nashvylle]

1 minute ago, samsonh said:

If the defined revenue sources are not there and the city has no willingness to pay the bonds go into default. This is why they pay a higher coupon. Bond investing 101.

the point I am getting at is transit projects, while funding via revenue bonds, almost always are over budget, and since metro doesn't want the bonds to go into default, will find other revenue streams to pay for the coupons, which will decrease the revenue streams to other areas (police, schools, sidewalks)

[satalac]

7 hours ago, Vrtigo said:

Yes, except for quoting the entire post. My scrolling finger is getting its own single-digit version of carpal tunnel from this forum in recent days. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_style#Trimming_and_reformatting

Whoops...

[Tennessine]

On 7/10/2018 at 5:24 PM, smeagolsfree said:

Normally I do not post an entire article but this one is of note.  Tennessee is not in the top ten as a business freindly state.

All is not roses here regurdless of all the positive news.

 

Tennessee is no longer among the top 10 states for business, according to a recent analysis by CNBC.

The Volunteer State ranked No. 13 on CNBC's 2018 list of "America's Top States for Business," down from No. 9 in 2017.

Texas ranked No. 1 on this year's list and Alaska came in last.  You can check out of the full rankings here.

Health could have been the pitfall for Tennessee this year. Among the categories, Tennessee performed the worst in quality of life, where the state ranked No. 47, down from last year’s ranking at No. 42.

CNBC judges quality of life based largely on overall health of the state’s population. Tennessee ranks dead last in the nation for childhood obesity, No. 45 in adult obesity and No. 46 in adults with heart disease, according to think tank Think Tennessee.

Tennessee also dropped from No. 5 to No. 7 among states with the best economies, and went from No. 4 to No. 8 in business friendliness, although Tennessee’s low costs are still driving companies like AllianceBernstein to move their headquarters to the state.

Tennessee ranked No. 15 in cost of doing business, a big dip from last year’s ranking at No. 6, which is in line with the Nashville Business Journal’s recent report indicating that Nashville’s construction cost are continuing to mount.

The only categories Tennessee performed better in this year were education and cost of living — the latter of which is in contrast to concerns about housing prices in Nashville. A recent report examining the city's growth noted that housing affordability will present a major challenge for the city in the coming years.  

See how this year’s rankings for Tennessee compare to 2017 in the graph below. Remember that a lower ranking indicates a positive score for the state, while a higher ranking reflects poorly on the state.

 

 

Also another article from walletthub ranked TN at the bottom of the best and worst run cities. Nashville came in at 111 due to Nashville being tied for the highest debt ratio per capita in the nation.

This iterates my point when I refuted the idea of Tennessee having a top ten economy on the Amazon thread. We are still bottom ten in quality of life, and even with the growth this decade, this has not improved at all.  I'm not trying to be Mr. Doom and Gloom, but one can't overlook the dire situation of poverty and crime. 

Again, it's better in the Nashville metro area than anywhere else. Crime in Memphis coupled with rural Appalachian poverty in East Tenn. , the plateau and rural West Tenn. brings the state down tremendously.  We have to focus more on improving these areas of the state. In fact, quality of life in the Appalachian region has decreased in most counties over the past 30 years. Several counties in northeast Tennessee have joined this trend, but it's even worse in eastern Kentucky and West Virginia.