Nashville Bits and Pieces

[smeagolsfree]

I waited two days for this to be posted but no one has seen fit to post a little bad news with all the good news. Folks, we cant always have it the way we want it. Right now we are just building mainly off the announcements over the past few years that are being built out.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2019/04/18/nashville-population-growth-slows-2018/3498194002/

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2019/04/18/update-your-talking-points-nashville-s-population.html

One thing to note is that One City has slowed and stalled probably because of all the other projects being built out. Housing starts have dropped, the number of people moving to the area has dropped, Davidson County had a 1% growth last year and we need at least 2% to 2.5% to keep that growth rate high. No real movement on River North yet, but IMO that is a 20 to 30 year build out.

We are not getting the announcements every week like we were three years ago. Right now its about one high rise every 2 months and a large project a month if that. 

When we hit recession, I am unsure how we will be affected, but you notice I didnt say IF. The economy will eventually cool, but I hope we are in a good position to weather the storm.

I know some of you guys will try and sugarcoat and bury your heads in the sand, but the signs have been there for a while that WE Are Cooling to a certain degree and have been for a while, BUT we still remain HOT. The recent jobs announcements will help the number some but those jobs have to keep coming.

Several things hurt us and need to be addressed. Those being affordable housing, cost of living, and TRAFFIC. When you look at the success of other cities and the flaws and the reasons why things make people move, it is traffic and high cost of living , mainly housing.

 

My rant  is over and time for you guys to blister me now.

[Mr_Bond]

Related to your rant, @smeagolsfree, I was wondering how Davidson county's growing compares to the others in our MSA especially Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and Maury.  About 12-15 years ago, there was an article stating that the commercial space in Williamson county would surpass downtown's in 10-15 years because of all the development in Maryland Farms and the Cool Springs area.  Downtown's growth was static at the time and Wiliamson county was en fuego.

So, will we see a slowdown in Davidson county while the surrounding counties 'catch up'?

[markhollin]

Nashville's 14 county MSA has grown 15.6% (from 1,670,000 to 1,930,00) from 2000 to 2018.

Between July 2017 and July 2018, the area is averaging 83 new residents per day.  Down from 94 a day the previous year, and 100 per day the year before that.  Still healthy growth...just slowing a bit.  It would seem those numbers will tick upward again as SmileDirect Club, Amazon, AllianceBernstein, etc. start taking hold with all their new hiring and the ensuing ancillary jobs pop up in the next few years.  

More behind the Nashville Post paywall here:

https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/people/article/21065124/of-note-19-april-2019

[dxfret]

A similar article about the slowing of the growth and development in NYC is in today’s editions of The NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/18/nyregion/new-york-city-population.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

[titanhog]

Everything seems to be pointing towards a recession soon.  We are historically overdue, I believe.  I was looking at US historical numbers a few months ago and I think this is one of the longest stretches of growth (after the late 00’s recession) we’ve had without receding.  It’s going to eventually catch us.

[markhollin]

1 hour ago, smeagolsfree said:

 

We are not getting the announcements every week like we were three years ago. Right now its about one high rise every 2 months and a large project a month if that. 

 

Actually, we have been getting LOTS of big announcements in the past 4 months:

- Metro approved a record $1.43 BILLION in building permits from Jan-March, which is $326 million more than the previous best quarter (mid 2016).  With just one quarter left in the fiscal year, Davidson County is already at the level of the previous best year.

- Amazon in Nashville Yards going from one tower to 2 towers (approx. 23 and 27 stories above ground).

- 1001 Church in Nashville Yards going from 10 stories to 40 stories.

- MGM Grand Hotel in  Nashville Yards going from 17 to 21 stories.

- Station District Towers (two at 32 stories, two at 34 stories)

- ONE22ONE Broadway (23-27 stories)

- Ditto Residential Tower (19 stories) at 15 Music Square South

- Neuhoff Plant redevelopment with 15 story office block, etc. at $500+ million.

- Stanza POD Hotel (14 stories)

- Luxury hotel planned for 1001 16th Ave. South (probably 10-12 stories)

- Haven at the Gulch (10 and 11 stories) 

- Music City Center planning major expansion

- $500 million in affordable housing redevelopments for Envision Napier-Sudekum and  and Envision Edgehill, among others.

- Nashville Warehouse Company (formerly Outpost Nashville) now resurrected as a $170 million project. 

- Huge $100-$500 million developments in Williamson County: Huffines Ridge, Aureum, Catalyst,  East Works District, Avalon with expanded plans

- In Antioch: Eakin Partners 30 acres at Century Farms, 1,000 new apartments in 4 projects along Bell Road.

- In Lebanon: Brookside Properties massive mixed-use project with 2 million sq. ft.

- Ryman/Lincoln mixed use development near Opryland, probably $500 million range over several phases.

- And there have been literally dozens of 4-7 story mixed-use buildings announced throughout the metro in the last 4 months. 

Perhaps things will cool somewhat in the future---but it sure hasn't  slowed down in recent months.  : )

[Rockatansky]

19 hours ago, OnePointEast said:

Will Nashville ever be within the top 20 MSAs in our lifetime?

Given that we're currently 36th - probably not.

[East Side Urbanite]

54 minutes ago, markhollin said:

Actually, we have been getting LOTS of big announcements in the past 4 months:

- Metro approved a record $1.43 BILLION in building permits from Jan-March, which is $326 million more than the previous best quarter (mid 2016).  With just one quarter left in the fiscal year, Davidson County is already at the level of the previous best year.

- Amazon in Nashville Yards going from one tower to 2 towers (approx. 23 and 27 stories above ground).

- 1001 Church in Nashville Yards going from 10 stories to 40 stories.

- MGM Grand Hotel in  Nashville Yards going from 17 to 21 stories.

- Station District Towers (two at 32 stories, two at 34 stories)

- ONE22ONE Broadway (23-27 stories)

- Ditto Residential Tower (19 stories) at 15 Music Square South

- Neuhoff Plant redevelopment with 15 story office block, etc. at $500+ million.

- Stanza POD Hotel (14 stories)

- Luxury hotel planned for 1001 16th Ave. South (probably 10-12 stories)

- Haven at the Gulch (10 and 11 stories) 

- Music City Center planning major expansion

- $500 million in affordable housing redevelopments for Envision Napier-Sudekum and  and Envision Edgehill, among others.

- Nashville Warehouse Company (formerly Outpost Nashville) now resurrected as a $170 million project. 

- Huge $100-$500 million developments in Williamson County: Huffines Ridge, Aureum, Catalyst,  East Works District, Avalon with expanded plans

- In Antioch: Eakin Partners 30 acres at Century Farms, 1,000 new apartments in 4 projects along Bell Road.

- In Lebanon: Brookside Properties massive mixed-use project with 2 million sq. ft.

- Ryman/Lincoln mixed use development near Opryland, probably $500 million range over several phases.

- And there have been literally dozens of 4-7 story mixed-use buildings announced throughout the metro in the last 4 months. 

Perhaps things will cool somewhat in the future---but it sure hasn't  slowed down in recent months.  : )

Ron meant large-scale (10 stories or taller) buildings in an urban Nashville setting and that we knew nothing about from a previous announcement (Haven, for example, is not "new" in the strict sense as it had been planned in a previous iteration for some time).

Since October, we've had only four (if I'm not mistaken) such announcements. That was not the case two years ago, for example, when we were getting one every three to four weeks. So in that respect, there has been a slight cooling. But nothing overly concerning.

[titanhog]

We all know a recession will eventually hit...but can someone with more knowledge than me confirm that this is the longest we've gone without a recession since we've been a nation?  It appears we've never gone 10 years without receding...and I think the last recession ended in Sept or Oct of 2009.

[Hey_Hey]

What's interesting  (and questionable to me) is that the slowdown in population growth has been driven by a negative domestic migration number for Davidson County beginning in 2016.  Since 2016 all of the population growth in Davidson County has been due to international migration or natural increase.  That's seems really odd to me that we have seen such a big change.  

Here are domestic migration numbers:

• 2011: +749
• 2012: +5716
• 2013: +2997
• 2014: +2140
• 2015: +2012
• 2016: -2039
• 2017: -6371 
• 2018: -4121

So between 2012 and 2017 there was an absolute difference of 12,087 people in domestic migration.  That seems like a huge disparity, and it seems inconsistent with what is going on around Nashville, with one possible explanation.  Is Davidson County increasingly becoming child-less?  We all know the number of living units in Davidson County continues to increase, but are those units being occupied by fewer people on average because families cannot afford to live in the city or do not want to live in the type of housing being built?   That being said, a 12,087 person difference in 5 years seems to be extreme. I would be interested in knowing how the Census Bureau derives its domestic migration numbers. If that model is off for Nashville then it would be easy to see how the actual 2020 Census could vary wildly from the estimates.

[Hey_Hey]

2 minutes ago, titanhog said:

We all know a recession will eventually hit...but can someone with more knowledge than me confirm that this is the longest we've gone without a recession since we've been a nation?  It appears we've never gone 10 years without receding...and I think the last recession ended in Sept or Oct of 2009.

We went 10 years from the early 90s recession to the early 2000s recession.  Both of those recessions, especially the early 2000s recession, were shallow and short-lived as well.  Recessions are generally getting less frequent and less deep, so maybe that trend will continue. Even the Great Recession wasn't much worse than average when you look at the entirety of the recessions in the prior 100 years, although a big reason it wasn't worse was because of the rapid action that was undertaken in 2008 and 2009 to repair the economy.  

A recession this year seems unlikely, although not impossible.  Maybe 2020 will bring the next recession, but who knows? 

[PaulChinetti]

10 minutes ago, titanhog said:

We all know a recession will eventually hit...but can someone with more knowledge than me confirm that this is the longest we've gone without a recession since we've been a nation?  It appears we've never gone 10 years without receding...and I think the last recession ended in Sept or Oct of 2009.

As someone that came into the workforce in May of 2008. The recession definitely didn't end in 2009. I'd say more like beginning of 2010 before places started hiring again. Woof what a terrible time to graduate haha.

[MLBrumby]

Slowing down? Perhaps, but I fail to see how suddenly there's a reversal of 8,000 in two years. I have no doubt, more singles and couples without children are moving into Davidson, as that's happening in Chattanooga's and Atlanta's city limits too. I think it's a widespread trend that somewhat echoes the 60-year migration of families to the suburbs. Regarding these latest figures, they show virtually no change from two years ago. Where is the USCB getting this info? From Metro? Are they actually looking at Drivers License information and states where they come from? Are they getting apartment occupancy? My question has to do with hard data. 

I have heard from a couple of reliable sources, one is an actual news reporter here, that these practices vary from county to county. Hamilton looks at DL information combined with other data, such as school enrollments and residential permits. Not surprisingly, Hamilton has been consistently more accurate between censuses than Davidson. Anyone here familiar with their methodology? 

[titanhog]

12 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

As someone that came into the workforce in May of 2008. The recession definitely didn't end in 2009. I'd say more like beginning of 2010 before places started hiring again. Woof what a terrible time to graduate haha.

Actually, it did technically end in 2009.  Yes...the reverberations of a recession can last years.   My home's value didn't actually start rebounding until like 2013.

Edited April 19, 2019 by titanhog

[Hey_Hey]

27 minutes ago, PaulChinetti said:

As someone that came into the workforce in May of 2008. The recession definitely didn't end in 2009. I'd say more like beginning of 2010 before places started hiring again. Woof what a terrible time to graduate haha.

Strictly speaking, a recession has to do with negative GDP growth, but the Main Street and Wall Street effects of a recession often don't line up with the recession perfectly.  The job market can be a trailing indicator while the stock market may be a leading indicator.  For example, many of the job losses and rising unemployment actually hit after the recession has started or even be technically over and oftentimes stock market declines precede the actual beginning of the recession.   Those two indicators hit real people harder since we either lose money in the stock market or lose wages, so those are things we all care about more i guess. 

[smeagolsfree]

1 hour ago, East Side Urbanite said:

Ron meant large-scale (10 stories or taller) buildings in an urban Nashville setting and that we knew nothing about from a previous announcement (Haven, for example, is not "new" in the strict sense as it had been planned in a previous iteration for some time).

Since October, we've had only four (if I'm not mistaken) such announcements. That was not the case two years ago, for example, when we were getting one every three to four weeks. So in that respect, there has been a slight cooling. But nothing overly concerning.

 

Correct, some of these like all the Nashville Yards is not to be counted as that project ebbs and flows with the time and nature of the announcements coming to the project. We knew AEG was going to be a part of the project fairly early on but are now getting the scope. That is not an announcement only a clarification of a project. I never count those as they are not out of the blue announcements so to speak. I am not saying we have not cooled to  warm because we have not as I stated in my post. WE are still HOT. I do have great respect for Mark and the work he does on the board and we sometime respectfully disagree about how we count things such as floor count and project announcements and this is a little bit of the case but we don't get upset about it, we present the facts and let you guys know where we stand.

And Mark, I am not picking on you buddy, as this board has improved 100% since you came on board and you enthusiasm has been so contagious. I am as always a little overly cautiously optimistic with things as you well know.

I also want to make sure we know that some projects get canceled or scaled back and when you present one side of a story only then the facts can be misrepresented a little.

The out of the blue high-rises and large projects we have had announced since October 1

One22One

Flank Hotel

Ditto Residential

Station District 4 and unsure of final timeline.

Neuhoff Project new one, as there was an old one.

LC Nations

Broadstone Nations

Some of the  public projects I am very leery about as that is at the leisure or the mayor/council/ voters, like the transit plan. Not even going there. We are likely to get disappointed.

The Stanza project was announced March of 2016  and is not a new announcement.

So it is only fair to at least name some of the canceled projects or projects that appear dead. These are just a few off the top of my head. Noting projects that have died provides clearer context.

The Rudy Law site has been resurrected by Greystar, so we could either count one as dead and a new one or just a reinvention of an old one.

The Smithfield Project in SoBro was canceled . Three high-rise towers cxl

The Eakin tower on 30th and Vanderbilt Place was canceled.

Haven  was to have been Crescendo was to have been 27 stories and is now 11, so we can count as one canceled and a low rise added

The Buchanan office park off of I 40 is essentially dead

The High-rise where Noshville was Cxl

The second Ave. Partners Project from two towers to One

The Marriot project from two towers to one

The hotel at I 65 and OHB

Gateway Germantown Appears dead as the land is for sale.

Snow Park at Opryland

I could probably go on but just trying to make a point that it is not always good news and we have to have that taste of the not so good news to put things into the correct perspective.

Again I am not trying to stir the pot or make anyone mad, just trying to keep everything in perspective as we can get to excited about the here and now and forget about the projects that were announced  or scaled back.

In a word I am trying to KEEP IT REAL. I want Nashville to succeed, but I never want us on the board to get unappreciative or self centered because I remember the days when the other cities such as Charlotte and Atlanta were getting everything and we were getting hardly anything and our nose was getting rubbed in it. We as a board are better than that and try to keep the city rivalry to a minimum here as well.

Time could be coming when we are forced to eat HUMBLE pie.

Nashville IS HOT and I am Excited to be here at this time a finally glad it is happening as many of us have waited years for this to happen to our GREAT city.

 

 

 

 

 

[titanhog]

[MLBrumby]

Random thoughts.

1. A recession can actually help well-capitalized developers who have large, long-term projects underway (or about to start) as it can lower the cost of labor and other elements of construction. 

2. The spread b/n yields (curves) has narrowed considerably over the past year, but there have been times in the recent past where this is the case without a recession following. 

3. The USCB showed an estimate of 691,243 for 2017 and 692, 587 in 2018. Hmm, so there were only 1300 units built in Davidson County in 2017? And that's assuming a single person per unit. NOT POSSIBLE. The so-called benchmark for the USCD for Davidson Co. is the 2015 figure of 678K.  Assuming a relatively modest (compared to actual figures for the first half of the decade) of 7k new residents per year, the 2017 figure would be around 692 +/-.  Then (all of a sudden) the population only rises by 1300?!?! I'm calling Bullsh!t... and if you try to find housing unit permits online for 2017-18, it's like trying to crack a NSA server.  I have a friend who is the most accurate in population estimates. He is well into his 80s now... a retired actuary. So I am going to stick my neck out and say what he told me... Nashville-Davidson County population in the 2020 census will be around 725,000.  A little reverse extrapolation (if you have faith in that figure) would put the Davidson County population presently (2019) at 712K-718K. 

One note on the above: I honestly cannot find any credible data on Davidson County housing permits issued for recent years. I have heard (and I believe NOW) that Davidson County data collection and management is an utter cluster-fukkk. 

Ok... carry on! 

Edited April 19, 2019 by MLBrumby

[markhollin]

4 hours ago, East Side Urbanite said:

Ron meant large-scale (10 stories or taller) buildings in an urban Nashville setting and that we knew nothing about from a previous announcement (Haven, for example, is not "new" in the strict sense as it had been planned in a previous iteration for some time).

Since October, we've had only four (if I'm not mistaken) such announcements. That was not the case two years ago, for example, when we were getting one every three to four weeks. So in that respect, there has been a slight cooling. But nothing overly concerning.

Well, Ron didn't STATE "in an urban Nashville setting."  The discussion was about the Nashville metro area.  Nor did he STATE anything about old projects being resurrected (let's be honest, we all thought Stanza and what has become Haven were completely dead in the water for the past several years).  

Like I shared at the last meet-up, we have 41 projects in Davidson County alone right with a $100 million or higher price tag either under construction or about to start, and in the past 12 months 10 more have been completed.  And Williamson County has 10 of their own underway or about to begin.  This region has never, ever seen anything remotely close to this.  

 

[East Side Urbanite]

39 minutes ago, markhollin said:

Well, Ron didn't STATE "in an urban Nashville setting."  The discussion was about the Nashville metro area.  Nor did he STATE anything about old projects being resurrected (let's be honest, we all thought Stanza and what has become Haven were completely dead in the water for the past several years).  

Like I shared at the last meet-up, we have 41 projects in Davidson County alone right with a $100 million or higher price tag either under construction or about to start, and in the past 12 months 10 more have been completed.  And Williamson County has 10 of their own underway or about to begin.  This region has never, ever seen anything remotely close to this.  

 

Fair point, Mark. Ron did not make that clear.

As Ron noted, there are two ways to view how we define "new project." You do it one way and Ron and I do it another. Either is fine and neither is wrong. Ron and I simply take a more measured/strict approach whereas you take (as we see it; you might disagree) a more broad and flexible approach.

For example — and we all discussed this at a UP meeting on a past Saturday — when you count the number of, for example, five-story-tall or taller buildings Nashville has landed during this post-2010 boom, you do not subtract from that number (correct me if I'm wrong) the four the city has lost during that time span: the Keeble building (at which JW Marriott now stands), the Sullivan Tower (NYards), the LifeWay headquarters building (NYards) and the Imperial House Apartments tower (at Saint Thomas West). Ron and I feel a net number gives a more clear picture and context regarding the city's mid-rise and high-rise gains.

Another example: I get the impression you count each tower within, for example, a multi-tower development (NYards, CapView, Fifth+Broad, etc.) as, to an extent, its own development (again, correct me if I'm wrong). And that's fine. I can see that. But Ron and I count, for example, NYards as one comprehensive project. And once it's announced, it can't become a "new" project after that. So if an element of that overall project is altered or an element is added, we don't count that as "new" in the strict sense. Here is a comparison. If Metro takes an existing sidewalk, rips it up and lays down a replacement sidewalk, Ron and I don't consider that a "new" sidewalk. A truly new sidewalk is one that is installed where one had not been. Again, your way is not wrong. Ron and I simply take a more strict approach because we feel it provides a more accurate overall picture.

The question is not whether Nashville remains hot. It clearly does remain hot. Rather, the question is whether there has been a slight cooling and, if so, if that cooling could actually be helpful to our long-term growth. M.L. Brumby feels the USCensusBureau numbers are wrong. And he might just be correct. But there are many who feel we are not gaining quite as many people as we were, say, two years ago. I don't know. The 2020 census could shed some light.

I still feel (and Ron stressed this in his post, too) that Nashville is in strong shape, poised for continued success and change. I just don't feel it's in as strong shape as you do. I would rate the city's level of "being in strong shape" at about an 8.5 to 9 (based on housing numbers, population growth, continued announcements of large-scale projects, luring of companies to the city, addition of new flights at BNA, etc.) My take is that most others on this board would rate it at 9 to 9.8. Regardless, we're in strong shape and it's an exciting time to be living in Nashville.

I always enjoy our exchanges, MH. You know your stuff and I respect you for that.

WW

 

 

 

[LA_TN]

ok kids, don't make me get up from my chair!!

8 - everyone knows I am pro-Nashville, all of Nashville, including Spring Hill to Lebanon and all points in between and around

Office/Industrial: At this time, Berry Farms  and Cool Springs have practically 0 growth, and Brentwood only has some moderate growth (ironically, inside Davidson County). 3 Franklin Park (11 stories) ... announced it will not start without tenant in hand. Downtown is booming, but compared to a few years ago, it would be expected to have some taller larger projects announced, yet more deals of the past year have been assembly of sites. Nashville Yards ups one building to 40 stories - proposed - because Amazon took 2 sites which resulted in a plan shift.  Grassmere projects have not materialized, Murfressboro has some moderate gains. LaVergne and Galdeville continue to expand while West End has not

Housing: There seems to be housing going up everywhere! Good! Murfreesboro, Antioch, Madison, The Nations,,,,everywhere. Rental rates, etc have risen so dramatically over the past few years that Davidson County will now have a mass exodus of residents that can no longer afford to live there, and thus making traffic 2x as bad. The displacement of gangs and lower income residents within Davidson County are forcing existing residents to contemplate moving out for safety/family. A ton of housing units will soon be coming online in places like Antioch, Blackman and Mt. Juliet that will have a significant impact on the market. Metro Schools...no comment

Other: Retail everywhere must redefine the industry in the age of Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger online. I personally believe 5th + Broadway underbuilt (the whole project). Will be interesting to see if critical mass exists to support retail in Capitol View, Endeavor, AEG. Airport growth continues, but BNA are already well above what a city this size should have, however, expect more to come, especially when the new International Terminal is complete. IT circles have not been as crazy this past year, but will pick up considerably this year with AB hiring now and Amazon soon

While Nashville is still on fire, it is obviously slowing due to growing pains. If Austin is a 10, Nashville is an 8

[East Side Urbanite]

9 hours ago, LA_TN said:

ok kids, don't make me get up from my chair!!

8 - everyone knows I am pro-Nashville, all of Nashville, including Spring Hill to Lebanon and all points in between and around

Office/Industrial: At this time, Berry Farms  and Cool Springs have practically 0 growth, and Brentwood only has some moderate growth (ironically, inside Davidson County). 3 Franklin Park (11 stories) ... announced it will not start without tenant in hand. Downtown is booming, but compared to a few years ago, it would be expected to have some taller larger projects announced, yet more deals of the past year have been assembly of sites. Nashville Yards ups one building to 40 stories - proposed - because Amazon took 2 sites which resulted in a plan shift.  Grassmere projects have not materialized, Murfressboro has some moderate gains. LaVergne and Galdeville continue to expand while West End has not

Housing: There seems to be housing going up everywhere! Good! Murfreesboro, Antioch, Madison, The Nations,,,,everywhere. Rental rates, etc have risen so dramatically over the past few years that Davidson County will now have a mass exodus of residents that can no longer afford to live there, and thus making traffic 2x as bad. The displacement of gangs and lower income residents within Davidson County are forcing existing residents to contemplate moving out for safety/family. A ton of housing units will soon be coming online in places like Antioch, Blackman and Mt. Juliet that will have a significant impact on the market. Metro Schools...no comment

Other: Retail everywhere must redefine the industry in the age of Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger online. I personally believe 5th + Broadway underbuilt (the whole project). Will be interesting to see if critical mass exists to support retail in Capitol View, Endeavor, AEG. Airport growth continues, but BNA are already well above what a city this size should have, however, expect more to come, especially when the new International Terminal is complete. IT circles have not been as crazy this past year, but will pick up considerably this year with AB hiring now and Amazon soon

While Nashville is still on fire, it is obviously slowing due to growing pains. If Austin is a 10, Nashville is an 8

While Nashville is still on fire, it is obviously slowing due to growing pains.

 

Well said, Bob. Agree fully.

[markhollin]

16 hours ago, East Side Urbanite said:

For example — and we all discussed this at a UP meeting on a past Saturday — when you count the number of, for example, five-story-tall or taller buildings Nashville has landed during this post-2010 boom, you do not subtract from that number (correct me if I'm wrong) the four the city has lost during that time span: the Keeble building (at which JW Marriott now stands), the Sullivan Tower (NYards), the LifeWay headquarters building (NYards) and the Imperial House Apartments tower (at Saint Thomas West). Ron and I feel a net number gives a more clear picture and context regarding the city's mid-rise and high-rise gains.
 

I don't recall this ever being discussed at one of our Meet-Ups---perhaps it was in a side conversation that I was not part of (those tend to happen at times in our meetings).

I am unaware of people who monitor development in any given city keeping track of "net gains."  All I can ever recall reading and seeing in charts are how many new structures are underway.  It would be an awful lot of work, for instance, to try and keep up with all the residences being torn down, to be subtracted from those that are being built. Would certainly be an interesting chart---but I have no idea who has the time our resources to try and calculate all of that.   

And, just so you know, I don't keep any sort of chart on ALL of the 5-story and up buildings that are in the Nashville area.  All I keep track of are what are under construction and recently completed. Once again, I have no idea who has the time (or inclination) to go around the metro and count every single one that exists as well as those that have been razed over the past 130 years.

I get the impression you count each tower within, for example, a multi-tower development (NYards, CapView, Fifth+Broad, etc.) as, to an extent, its own development (again, correct me if I'm wrong). And that's fine. I can see that. But Ron and I count, for example, NYards as one comprehensive project. And once it's announced, it can't become a "new" project after that.

When tallying large scale developments, I count the price tag on the whole thing (for instance Nashville Yards at $1 billion) as a single entity.  But I count the buildings separately when it comes to keeping track of new structures (I believe you and Ron do the same).  However, if a structure from the original concept is markedly altered (and I would say something being changed from 10  to 40 stories counts for that), then, to me, that is a "new announcement" worthy notation.  I even believe the MGM Hotel being expanded by 25% (along with different design details) as significant enough to be counted as "new" news.  If it weren't, why would the developers bother to send out press releases, offer new renderings, seek coverage, etc. if they themselves didn't think it was newsworthy.  

Also, if a project has been in deep sleep mode for several years, and then resurfaces with perhaps some new people as part of the development team, or a new brand affiliation/moniker, or significantly altered design, then I think that should be considered as new.  For instance, do you consider BroadWest new, or just a reboot of West End Summit?  After all, it is still the same basic layout of two towers.  I think most would say it is completely new because of Propst now being involved, and different (but similar in scope) designs.

Stanza Hotel is a bit trickier.  But, I think you would agree, it has been in somewhat murky, mothball-like state for 4 years. But it ended up having a few more floors added, the size of each room greatly reduced, a whole new exterior design, and a new hotel brand partner.  That's all significant enough for me to count it as a "new announcement,"  because, without those things, it would still be dead. The 19th and Broadway project has similar challenges in that Regent had completely given up on it, and it rough concept was in a dormant stage for 3 years. Then they sold the land to Greystar--who are staying with some of the same general layout, but adding about 25% more floors, fleshing out much more of the overall design, and will have a fresh moniker.   Without Greystar, it would be dead.  With their involvement, it is now a "new announcement" in my mind. 

 

[East Side Urbanite]

53 minutes ago, markhollin said:

 

Some excellent points, MH.

A few things and to your points...

I am unaware of people who monitor development in any given city keeping track of "net gains." 

The chat about "tall building numbers" I seem to recall I said in front of the UP group. I might be mis-remembering. To your point. It's possible nobody in any city keeps track of net gains. But they should as net gains give the most complete picture. Emporis offers highrises (and midrises) that have been demolished. So, for example, and specific to this current boom, if Nashville has landed 25 buildings of 100 feet tall or taller since 2010 but also has lost three (Imperial House, Sullivan Tower and LifeWay tower), I would count that as a net gain of 22.  You might do likewise but I've never been fully sure. Let me know.

 

I count the buildings separately when it comes to keeping track of new structures (I believe you and Ron do the same). 

Yes, indeed, we do. Ron and I agree with you.

 

However, if a structure from the original concept is markedly altered (and I would say something being changed from 10  to 40 stories counts for that), then, to me, that is a "new announcement" worthy notation. 

I would agree with you to an extent but not fully (see below for more details). I do agree that a change from 10 to 40 floors is "markedly altered," no doubt.

 

Also, if a project has been in deep sleep mode for several years, and then resurfaces with perhaps some new people as part of the development team, or a new brand affiliation/moniker, or significantly altered design, then I think that should be considered as new.  For instance, do you consider BroadWest new, or just a reboot of West End Summit?  After all, it is still the same basic layout of two towers.  I think most would say it is completely new because of Propst now being involved, and different (but similar in scope) designs.

In general, I don't consider Broadwest new. However, I concede that most folks would disagree with me. And I respect their right do so and understand.

 

Stanza Hotel is a bit trickier.  But, I think you would agree, it has been in somewhat murky, mothball-like state for 4 years. But it ended up having a few more floors added, the size of each room greatly reduced, a whole new exterior design, and a new hotel brand partner.  That's all significant enough for me to count it as a "new announcement,"  because, without those things, it would still be dead.

I agree Stanza has been in "murky, mothball-like state" (well said and I chuckled). But I define "new" as 100 percent new — that is,  a project for which we knew nothing prior to actually learning about it for the first time. This includes the site, the developer, the fact that nothing remotely like it had previously been planned for that site and by that developer (or any developer), the proposed uses, etc. Admittedly, I'm probably in the minority on this. But if it's not 100 percent new, I would most specifically and strictly call it "a previously known project with new elements/components/players." As such, I don't consider Stanza new in the truest of senses. Again, I take a very strict approach to this.

 

A few other points (and I admit that many on this board will likely disagree with me, and that's cool):

* I think you define the number of floors of a building differently than I do. For example, if 75 percent of a building is eight floors and 25 percent is nine floors ... I count that structure as an eight-floor building. A building has to be more than 25 percent of the "lesser-floor component" to justify my "giving" the building an additional floor. I believe you take the opposite approach (but I could be wrong)  and would, in this example, count it as a nine-floor building.

* When I compare the MSAs of cities, I place a good bit of emphasis on the square mileage of those MSAs. For example, Nashville has about 1.93 million people in an MSA of about 7,000 square miles. Charlotte has about 2.6 million in an MSA of 3,200 square miles. So, in simple terms, Charlotte is not just "bigger" than Nashville but, rather, a good bit bigger. Now, I suppose I could throw out in Nashville's 14-county MSA the sparsely populated counties in such a manner that (in this hypothetical) the "new" Nashville MSA might have, say, 1.6 million in, say, 3,500 square miles (which is more impressive than 1.9 million in 7,000 square miles). But if I did that, I would need (to be fair and consistent) to jettison the most sparsely populated counties in Charlotte's 10-county MSA. And ,if so, Charlotte would remain "a good bit bigger" than Nashville. I'm not sure how you view this topic. I would be curious to get Kevin Stubblefield's take on this, too.

* I define "international city" via many metrics. So many, in fact, that I don't consider Atlanta a fully "international city." There are many on the board who feel I have been unfairly dismissive of Nashville's climb toward being an international city. And, to be fair, some of their criticisms are valid. At times, I have taken a harsh (even arrogant and condescending) tone. I apologize for that. It was uncalled for. And I do feel we are moving toward being fairly international in some respects. The future is bright is this regard. But I don't consider Nashville much more international than, say, Salt Lake City (which has a much more international airport than we do, has more Asians and Hispanics than we do, hosted the 2002 Winter Olympics, etc.) Of course, Nashville likely gets far more foreign tourists than SLC, to be fair.

 

Again, I take a very measured, strict, almost clinical approach to how I assess Nashville (and other cities). I err on the side of caution. I admit this approach might baffle some folks because they know I love the city and feel I perhaps should be a bit more complimentary of it. Some of my approach stems from the fact that I'm a journalist (we tend to be defined by a healthy does of cynicism and/or pragmatism).

Regardless, I do feel Nashville remains very hot and influential (just not quite as much as you and many others on the board do).

Keep up the great work you do for this city and for UP, Mark. It does not go unnoticed. You are a star.

I love ya, brother.

William

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CityHeart]

12 hours ago, LA_TN said:

ok kids, don't make me get up from my chair!!

8 - everyone knows I am pro-Nashville, all of Nashville, including Spring Hill to Lebanon and all points in between and around

Office/Industrial: At this time, Berry Farms  and Cool Springs have practically 0 growth, and Brentwood only has some moderate growth (ironically, inside Davidson County). 3 Franklin Park (11 stories) ... announced it will not start without tenant in hand. Downtown is booming, but compared to a few years ago, it would be expected to have some taller larger projects announced, yet more deals of the past year have been assembly of sites. Nashville Yards ups one building to 40 stories - proposed - because Amazon took 2 sites which resulted in a plan shift.  Grassmere projects have not materialized, Murfressboro has some moderate gains. LaVergne and Galdeville continue to expand while West End has not

Housing: There seems to be housing going up everywhere! Good! Murfreesboro, Antioch, Madison, The Nations,,,,everywhere. Rental rates, etc have risen so dramatically over the past few years that Davidson County will now have a mass exodus of residents that can no longer afford to live there, and thus making traffic 2x as bad. The displacement of gangs and lower income residents within Davidson County are forcing existing residents to contemplate moving out for safety/family. A ton of housing units will soon be coming online in places like Antioch, Blackman and Mt. Juliet that will have a significant impact on the market. Metro Schools...no comment

Other: Retail everywhere must redefine the industry in the age of Amazon, Walmart, and Kroger online. I personally believe 5th + Broadway underbuilt (the whole project). Will be interesting to see if critical mass exists to support retail in Capitol View, Endeavor, AEG. Airport growth continues, but BNA are already well above what a city this size should have, however, expect more to come, especially when the new International Terminal is complete. IT circles have not been as crazy this past year, but will pick up considerably this year with AB hiring now and Amazon soon

While Nashville is still on fire, it is obviously slowing due to growing pains. If Austin is a 10, Nashville is an 8

What would your version/vision of 5th + Broadway look like ?