Nashville Bits and Pieces

[QCxpat]

1 hour ago, titanhog said:

Very interesting.  You'll notice how small the numbers are for Nashville's "top migrating cities" and that probably means Nashville's numbers are  spread out amongst a lot of different cities.  I think that would signify a healthy influx of diverse locations...but maybe I'm overthinking it.

Also...interesting that Charlotte's #1 contributor is NYC.  I think those New Yorkers love to stay within that I-95 corridor...all the way from Miami back up to NYC.

 

40 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Yep... the New Yawkaz are really ruining Charlotte. Was there last month. My driver was shot the bird seven times. And she was the one following the law. I said, I've never been gestured that way anywhere outside of NYC. She said, "it happens at least a few times each day." The same vibe I get in south Florida. And guess which Interstate goes there? 

I-95 doesn't actually run through Charlotte.  Charlotte sits midway along Interstate 85's route, which runs from Petersburg, VA, to Montgomery, AL.  Charlotte is also served by Interstate 77 which runs from Cleveland, OH, to Columbia, SC.

I-95 runs through N.C.'s Coastal Plain.  However, Charlotte and all of N.C.'s major cities (Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro, Winston-Salem) lie in the Carolina Piedmont rather than the Coastal Plain.

I- 95 runs from Houlton, ME,  to Miami, FL, and passes well east of Charlotte running through smaller cities in North Carolina's Coastal Plain, such as, Rocky Mount, Wilson, and Lumberton. 

Of course, for the average New Yorker, Charlotte is "fly over" land.   But they certainly won't find it driving along I-95.  Charlotte lies nearly 129 miles, and a 2 hour 15 mins drive, west of I-95 at its closest junction in Lumberton, NC.

Love your forum & visit it frequently.  Charlotte & Nashville have sophisticated UP audiences.  I'm sure you didn't need this little geography lesson, but just saying .... Thanks.    

Edited October 25, 2019 by QCxpat

[MLBrumby]

Understand your point.  I think Titanhog was referring to the fact that I-95 goes from NYC to Miami by way of NC and other states along the eastern seaboard... somewhat like the I-75 pipeline does from the Midwest to Miami (close anyway), even though I-75 does not pass through Nashville. Yet, there's something of a Nashville-Detroit/Ohio pipeline. So they're conduits,but not exclusive to cities along that specific route. 

[titanhog]

17 minutes ago, MLBrumby said:

Understand your point.  I think Titanhog was referring to the fact that I-95 goes from NYC to Miami by way of NC and other states along the eastern seaboard... somewhat like the I-75 pipeline does from the Midwest to Miami (close anyway), even though I-75 does not pass through Nashville. Yet, there's something of a Nashville-Detroit/Ohio pipeline. So they're conduits,but not exclusive to cities along that specific route. 

Yeah...just basically talking about that corridor along the east coast from Miami to NYC.  I realize Charlotte is further inland, but I'd guess from I-95 inland for at least 100 miles has a significant NY / NJ transplant population...especially in the metro areas.

[KJHburg]

As for North Carolina's population growth in the last year came from these 5 states

The most popular previous residences for people moving to N.C. in 2017 were:

Florida (32,000)     Virginia (29,000)    South Carolina (27,000)    New York (27,000)   California (20,000) 

while a chunk are from the NY metro they do not dominate the city but sure you will meet lots of people from NY many from upstate NY who came south for jobs and better opportunities.  

with high taxes NY, NJ and CT will continue to cause their residents to flee south to NC and Tennessee.    How many people were Alliance Bernstein moving from NYC to Nashville? Charlotte is the 2nd largest financial center in the country after NYC so it is natural there would be a lot people moving to Charlotte from NYC.  Very expensive to raise a family in +\NYC even on a big salary.  I know many people from NY and NJ and they would NEVER go back to their home states they are so happy here.  I am sure it is the same in Nashville. Yeah they talk funny, drive without abandon but most mellow out when they move here and enjoy life which is much easier here than there. 

and I will be sure to ask  everyone I meet where they are from  when I am in Nashville in a few weeks.

Edited October 25, 2019 by KJHburg

[fxvol]

27 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

As for North Carolina's population growth in the last year came from these 5 states

The most popular previous residences for people moving to N.C. in 2017 were:

Florida (32,000)     Virginia (29,000)    South Carolina (27,000)    New York (27,000)   California (20,000) 

while a chunk are from the NY metro they do not dominate the city but sure you will meet lots of people from NY many from upstate NY who came south for jobs and better opportunities.  

with high taxes NY, NJ and CT will continue to cause their residents to flee south to NC and Tennessee.    How many people were Alliance Bernstein moving from NYC to Nashville? Charlotte is the 2nd largest financial center in the country after NYC so it is natural there would be a lot people moving to Charlotte from NYC.  Very expensive to raise a family in +\NYC even on a big salary.  I know many people from NY and NJ and they would NEVER go back to their home states they are so happy here.  I am sure it is the same in Nashville. Yeah they talk funny, drive without abandon but most mellow out when they move here and enjoy life which is much easier here than there. 

and I will be sure to ask  everyone I meet where they are from  when I am in Nashville in a few weeks.

Hey KJ, welcome to our forum and thanks for sharing your thoughts and perspective!

[glamdring269]

On 10/23/2019 at 5:20 PM, donNdonelson2 said:

JesseLee Jones, owner of Robert’s Western World & The Nashville Palace is Brazilian/Italian (his old band was named Brazilbilly). 
http://www.jesseleejones.com/entrepreneur/

This has been my one go to spot downtown for years now. I think the first time I stepped foot in there was around '04 when some people I met who moved down from Michigan convinced me that downtown Nashville "is actually ok now". Still feels pretty much the same though the crowds are certainly a lot thicker.

[billgregg]

I come to UP for interurban flame wars and all I see is collegiality and analysis. C'mon, UPers, up your game.

[WebberThomas4]

https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/features/article/21094133/new-mayor-john-cooper-grapples-with-the-realities-of-the-citys-top-job

“Metro’s Office of Economic and Community Development, whose leadership remains in place for now, reports that it is “currently working with partners on 15 projects that would create more than 12,000 jobs and invest $1.5 billion into Nashville.” That could create conflict with the new administration, as Cooper has repeatedly criticized some of the incentive deals made by past administrations. (He did, however, vote for two major packages earlier this year in his previous role as an at-large member of the Metro Council.)”

[Ingram]

3 hours ago, WebberThomas4 said:

https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/features/article/21094133/new-mayor-john-cooper-grapples-with-the-realities-of-the-citys-top-job

“Metro’s Office of Economic and Community Development, whose leadership remains in place for now, reports that it is “currently working with partners on 15 projects that would create more than 12,000 jobs and invest $1.5 billion into Nashville.” That could create conflict with the new administration, as Cooper has repeatedly criticized some of the incentive deals made by past administrations. (He did, however, vote for two major packages earlier this year in his previous role as an at-large member of the Metro Council.)”

 

This is why the folks behind Broadwest, The Moore, and One22One decided not to wait for tenants in order to begin construction.

Edited October 25, 2019 by Ingram

[markhollin]

Good summary piece about all the hotel rooms (3,000) coming online in 2019, which makes Nashville the fastest growing hotel city out of the nation's Top 25 markets. It finally appears that room rates are starting to flatten.  Average of $182 per night downtown is about the same as last year.  But occupancy levels remain high, and demand continues to soar.  Steady, or even lower rates could actually draw even more tourists and conventioneers.  

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2019/10/28/nashville-leads-nation-hotel-growth/4064455002/

[Binbin98]

2 hours ago, markhollin said:

Good summary piece about all the hotel rooms (3,000) coming online in 2019, which makes Nashville the fastest growing hotel city out of the nation's Top 25 markets. It finally appears that room rates are starting to flatten.  Average of $182 per night downtown is about the same as last year.  But occupancy levels remain high, and demand continues to soar.  Steady, or even lower rates could actually draw even more tourists and conventioneers.  

More at The Tennessean here:

https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2019/10/28/nashville-leads-nation-hotel-growth/4064455002/

I feel also like Nashville is running out of hotel brands to build due to the rapid growth. Like there is already a Grand Hyatt, 1 Hotel, Conrad, W, Four Seasons, Virgin, Edition/Ritz Carlton, and a possible Fairmont hotel as well (and I’m probably missing some too). I mean I can’t really think of any other brands that could come here in the future other than maybe a Hard Rock Hotel or an Intercontinental, both of which have tried to enter into Nashville before. In any case the hotel growth is insane.

[donNdonelson2]

I would love to see brands like Yotel enter the market. (We do have one “pod style” hotel proposed.) The small, well designed & efficient spaces offer an alternative to all the high end brands.  I’ve experienced a two week stay at Yotel in midtown Manhattan and found it very enjoyable.

https://www.yotel.com/en

Edited October 28, 2019 by donNdonelson2

[markhollin]

Wall Street Journal did a feature a few days ago entitled "Nashville Mayor's Unorthodox Promise: Slow Corporate Handouts."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nashville-mayors-unorthodox-promise-slow-corporate-handouts-11572029641?emailToken=5aeb4efd906dddb55869985dd0d7ae39kavNtptP72ZD+khL5jAfNp9mi8UAJI8h6vVczVovsBCFN6/R9XbU0MwXI7PrYodQb5gRoZ6ktcvrHli9PfabQWVcqVnihcO8iQDvM1UVhlvLCMLhRdsGrycyTQkutzFV&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

[deletethisaccount]

[Nashvillain]

6 hours ago, markhollin said:

Wall Street Journal did a feature a few days ago entitled "Nashville Mayor's Unorthodox Promise: Slow Corporate Handouts."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nashville-mayors-unorthodox-promise-slow-corporate-handouts-11572029641?emailToken=5aeb4efd906dddb55869985dd0d7ae39kavNtptP72ZD+khL5jAfNp9mi8UAJI8h6vVczVovsBCFN6/R9XbU0MwXI7PrYodQb5gRoZ6ktcvrHli9PfabQWVcqVnihcO8iQDvM1UVhlvLCMLhRdsGrycyTQkutzFV&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

"...residents complain about housing prices, traffic...and oh yeah, the city's broke."

[rolly]

How is this not in Nashville. The Guitar Tower we always wanted!

 

[donNdonelson2]

3 minutes ago, rolly said:

How is this not in Nashville. 

By the grace of God.

[Dale]

On 10/24/2019 at 8:42 PM, titanhog said:

Yeah...all you need to know about NY drivers is to be there when it snows and a lot of the cars have an extra "bumper" guard on the back because people actually bump your car if you don't get out of the way.  I was shocked when I saw that.  Definitely ups the frustration level. 

You guys notice it says part of the driving force of people moving here is our "excellent transportation system?" 

Seriously though, didn’t Alliance Bernstein (or Bernstein Alliance ?) cite a lack of traffic congestion as a factor in picking Nashville ? 

I don’t want to have to play my Columbus, OH card again, but I will.

[MLBrumby]

Rant ALERT!!!! If you don't want to read my rant, then please disregard.

This morning I asked my secretary to assemble data for the top 20 counties in the state, including housing data. With one exception, she pulled the data together rather quickly. Guess the one exception. She went to Metro.gov (or whatever it is)... she went to US Census... and even to the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors to find the number of housing permits (multi & single) issued by the counties. There were a couple of other statistics I wanted, but the housing was the most annoying. You'd think it's a simple, straightforward thing to get a summary of housing starts and other construction data, but nope. The most recent compendium of those figures was from 2015!!!!!  Really?!?  I mean, what's the deal with Metro codes?  No wonder the mid-census population estimates for Davidson County are so far off the mark. And perhaps that's one reason the county is so pathetically far behind when it comes to updating/expanding infrastructure. The best thing she and a few others on staff (including me) could do was to extrapolate into figures for 2018 and part of 2019... with about 5800 units in 2018 and so far for 2019 about 4400 thru September. Anyone have better figures than that? 

This is one source, but it doesn't give permit data. It's lacking in some key areas, and it's really hard to read, but overall it's useful. https://myutk.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0a25caa68c9e4399a65449bc94ff3a49

Edited October 30, 2019 by MLBrumby

[jmtunafish]

6 hours ago, MLBrumby said:

Rant ALERT!!!! If you don't want to read my rant, then please disregard.

This morning I asked my secretary to assemble data for the top 20 counties in the state, including housing data. With one exception, she pulled the data together rather quickly. Guess the one exception. She went to Metro.gov (or whatever it is)... she went to US Census... and even to the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors to find the number of housing permits (multi & single) issued by the counties. There were a couple of other statistics I wanted, but the housing was the most annoying. You'd think it's a simple, straightforward thing to get a summary of housing starts and other construction data, but nope. The most recent compendium of those figures was from 2015!!!!!  Really?!?  I mean, what's the deal with Metro codes?  No wonder the mid-census population estimates for Davidson County are so far off the mark. And perhaps that's one reason the county is so pathetically far behind when it comes to updating/expanding infrastructure. The best thing she and a few others on staff (including me) could do was to extrapolate into figures for 2018 and part of 2019... with about 5800 units in 2018 and so far for 2019 about 4400 thru September. Anyone have better figures than that? 

This is one source, but it doesn't give permit data. It's lacking in some key areas, and it's really hard to read, but overall it's useful. https://myutk.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0a25caa68c9e4399a65449bc94ff3a49

Where at the Census web site did your secretary look?  The info is there.  It takes a little bit of digging, but it's there.  Go here first:

https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/

Click ASCII files by State, MSA, County or Place

Click "Place" (not County, for some reason) which will bring you here:  https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/Place/

Then click on "South Region" which will bring you here:  https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/Place/South Region/

You'll see a bunch of files with weird names.  If you want to see the final tally for 2014, look for the file called "1412y" which means year 2014, month 12 (December), "y" for year-to-date tally.  That file shows that Nashville-Davidson County had 2,538 housing units built in 2014.  The final tally for 2018 was 3,560.  So far in 2019 (as of September) it's at 2,828.

Here are the instructions how to save the files you want and then open them to make a more legible Excel document.  Right now only the building permit summaries for metropolitan areas are Excel files at the Census web site, otherwise you have to create your own.  https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/pdf/importingpermitsfilestomicrosoftexcel.pdf

I hope all that makes sense.

Edited October 31, 2019 by jmtunafish

[MLBrumby]

Thanks JMT.... I'll point her that way. I think I found the data you linked. Still wonder if this breaks out multi- and single- but this looks close enough. Wow! Shouldn't be so hard. 

[jmtunafish]

Just now, MLBrumby said:

Thanks JMT.... I'll point her that way. I think I found the data you linked. Still wonder if this breaks out multi- and single- but this looks close enough. Wow! Shouldn't be so hard. 

No problem at all.  I agree that this is much more cumbersome than it should be to get that information.  As of a couple of years ago every file at that web site was an Excel file.  But then the Census people changed it so only metropolitan area files are Excel files, otherwise we have to jump through all kinds of hoops to get the same info for every other geography that's not a metropolitan area.  Once you save the file to your computer and re-open it as an Excel file (be sure to follow the instructions in the PDF file I linked above) it does break down the housing starts by type (single family, duplex, etc.).  But unless you follow that process, it's almost impossible to figure out those figures at the Census web site.  It's annoying for people like us who just want to browse those files for fun.  I guess for government statistic wonks who analyze these files for a living, it's probably no big deal.  ugh.

[Griz83]

You can try their new (still working out the bugs) data site:
https://data.census.gov

I was at a conference just last week at the new Libscomb Spark Center.  Someone from US Census gave us the rundown on it.  Enjoy.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Griz83

[chris holman]

*The Cost Of Growth*

. Not sure if this has ever been posted but this video goes behind the development and into the lives of the city affected by the growth overall, from the homeless, to neighborhoods. The video is dated. It was under mayor Berry 's Administration

1:30+ long video 

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2018/04/24/rolling-mill-hill-nashville-development-peabody-plaza/546323002/

Edited November 2, 2019 by chris holman

[MLBrumby]

Just one more little sign that the population boom in Nashville is greater than expected. I (and others) have assailed the various metro area governments (especially Davidson) for poor data collection, or at least access to it. You need to bend over backwards while jumping through hoops and cross your fingers to find residential building permits.  USPS data for the metro? Forget it! Heck, you can't even find a summary by year of cars registered for first time in the 8 counties of the core from outside the metro. Well, add birthrate to that pile of data.  Allegedly a 'study' here. I find it annoying when reports like this do not cite the study.  https://fox17.com/news/local/as-birthrates-around-the-country-decline-nashville-one-of-only-two-cities-to-rise

“In 2010 we had close to about 3,000 deliveries a year and now we're projecting, this year, about 4,700 over the next year, and we anticipate in the next year or two, that we may be closer to 6000 deliveries,” Vanderbilt’s Dr. Tara Nielson said.